Wallet analysis

2026-06-13T21:31:31+00:00

trader profile + honest PnL by actual resolution and NET edge after slippage — worth copying?

84
0x84da…424e
crypto · 71 markets active 1h ago
1.0score
−$21 -4%
TOTAL PnL · realized −$20 · open −$2
avoidriskycopy
✗ TRAP crypto specialistFading edge
Copy trade Watchlist View on Polymarket ↗
Net worth$19
Realized−$20
Unrealized−$2
Win rate (resolved)63%
Wins / losses43 / 25
Open positions3
Markets (closed)68 / 71
History coverage34d
Avg bet$7
Trades / day2.7
Drawdown100%
Kalshi-fit89%
Chart Positions 3 History 68 Categories Trades Net edge Slippage
1W 1M 3M YTD 1Y All
2 days+$0
7 days+$1
14 days+$1
30 days−$30
Cards show realized PnL over calendar windows (by resolution date). The “Total PnL” chart appears for wallets we track daily.
Open positions — marked to current price, like Polymarket
Marketoutcome entrynow investedvalue unrealized PnL
Will France win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Yes 17¢ 16¢ $10 $9 −$1 (-8%)
Will Argentina win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Yes 9¢ 8¢ $10 $9 −$1 (-9%)
Will Morocco win on 2026-06-13? Yes 17¢ 16¢ $1 $1 −$0 (-3%)
Will SE Palmeiras win on 2026-05-16? Yes 50¢ 0¢ $20 $0 −$20 (-100%)
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 25, 6:15PM-6:20PM ET Up 67¢ 0¢ $5 $0 −$5 (-100%)
Will CR Vasco da Gama win on 2026-05-16? Yes 24¢ 0¢ $10 $0 −$10 (-100%)
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 28, 3:55PM-4:00PM ET Up 26¢ 0¢ $1 $0 −$1 (-100%)
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 26, 3:35PM-3:40PM ET Down 58¢ 0¢ $5 $0 −$5 (-100%)
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 27, 7:45PM-7:50PM ET Down 23¢ 0¢ $1 $0 −$1 (-100%)
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 27, 7:25PM-7:30PM ET Up 4¢ 0¢ $1 $0 −$1 (-100%)
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 25, 6:35PM-6:40PM ET Down 90¢ 0¢ $5 $0 −$5 (-100%)
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 13, 4:00PM-4:05PM ET Up 36¢ 0¢ $1 $0 −$1 (-100%)
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 27, 7:40PM-7:45PM ET Down 48¢ 0¢ $1 $0 −$1 (-100%)
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 19, 10:30AM-10:35AM ET Up 37¢ 0¢ $5 $0 −$5 (-100%)
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 28, 2:40PM-2:45PM ET Down 31¢ 0¢ $1 $0 −$1 (-100%)
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 25, 7:25PM-7:30PM ET Down 92¢ 0¢ $5 $0 −$5 (-100%)
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 26, 8:20PM-8:25PM ET Up 85¢ 0¢ $5 $0 −$5 (-100%)
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 25, 6:40PM-6:45PM ET Down 72¢ 0¢ $5 $0 −$5 (-100%)
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 28, 4:00PM-4:05PM ET Up 29¢ 0¢ $1 $0 −$1 (-100%)
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 26, 8:45PM-8:50PM ET Up 69¢ 0¢ $10 $0 −$10 (-100%)
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 29, 6:35PM-6:40PM ET Up 17¢ 0¢ $1 $0 −$1 (-100%)
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 13, 4:05PM-4:10PM ET Down 86¢ 0¢ $1 $0 −$1 (-100%)
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 26, 3:15PM-3:20PM ET Down 62¢ 0¢ $5 $0 −$5 (-100%)
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 27, 7:55PM-8:00PM ET Down 27¢ 0¢ $1 $0 −$1 (-100%)
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 27, 7:30PM-7:35PM ET Down 33¢ 0¢ $1 $0 −$1 (-100%)
Top-25 open positions by current value. Prices in cents = market-implied probability (50¢ = 50%).
Closed markets — PnL by actual resolution, newest first
MarketwheninvestedPnLROI
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 13, 4:05PM-4:10PM ET Jun 13 $1 −$1 -99%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 13, 3:55PM-4:00PM ET Jun 13 $2 $0 +9%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 13, 4:00PM-4:05PM ET Jun 13 $1 −$1 -96%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 13, 3:50PM-3:55PM ET Jun 13 $1 +$1 +62%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 13, 3:45PM-3:50PM ET Jun 13 $2 +$1 +65%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 8, 3:40PM-3:45PM ET Jun 08 $1 $0 +28%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 8, 3:35PM-3:40PM ET Jun 08 $1 $0 +44%
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 29, 6:35PM-6:40PM ET May 29 $1 −$1 -94%
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 28, 4:00PM-4:05PM ET May 28 $1 −$1 -95%
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 28, 3:55PM-4:00PM ET May 28 $1 −$1 -95%
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 28, 3:50PM-3:55PM ET May 28 $1 −$1 -96%
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 28, 2:40PM-2:45PM ET May 28 $1 −$1 -95%
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 27, 7:55PM-8:00PM ET May 27 $1 −$1 -95%
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 27, 7:45PM-7:50PM ET May 27 $1 −$1 -95%
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 27, 7:40PM-7:45PM ET May 27 $1 −$1 -96%
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 27, 7:35PM-7:40PM ET May 27 $1 +$3 +266%
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 27, 7:30PM-7:35PM ET May 27 $1 −$1 -96%
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 27, 7:25PM-7:30PM ET May 27 $1 −$1 -94%
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 26, 8:45PM-8:50PM ET May 27 $10 −$10 -98%
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 26, 8:35PM-8:40PM ET May 27 $5 +$1 +13%
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 26, 8:20PM-8:25PM ET May 27 $5 −$5 -99%
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 26, 8:15PM-8:20PM ET May 27 $10 +$2 +16%
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 26, 8:10PM-8:15PM ET May 27 $10 +$4 +42%
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 26, 3:35PM-3:40PM ET May 26 $5 −$5 -97%
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 26, 3:30PM-3:35PM ET May 26 $20 +$2 +11%
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 26, 3:25PM-3:30PM ET May 26 $10 +$2 +15%
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 26, 3:20PM-3:25PM ET May 26 $5 +$2 +42%
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 26, 3:15PM-3:20PM ET May 26 $5 −$5 -97%
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 26, 3:10PM-3:15PM ET May 26 $5 +$2 +34%
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 26, 3:05PM-3:10PM ET May 26 $20 +$2 +11%
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 26, 3:00PM-3:05PM ET May 26 $10 $0 +4%
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 25, 7:30PM-7:35PM ET May 25 $10 +$1 +9%
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 25, 7:25PM-7:30PM ET May 25 $5 −$5 -99%
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 25, 6:40PM-6:45PM ET May 25 $5 −$5 -98%
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 25, 6:35PM-6:40PM ET May 25 $10 −$5 -50%
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 25, 6:25PM-6:30PM ET May 25 $10 +$1 +9%
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 25, 6:20PM-6:25PM ET May 25 $15 +$1 +8%
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 25, 6:15PM-6:20PM ET May 25 $5 −$5 -98%
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 25, 6:10PM-6:15PM ET May 25 $10 +$2 +20%
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 25, 6:05PM-6:10PM ET May 25 $15 +$2 +12%
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 25, 6:00PM-6:05PM ET May 25 $10 +$2 +22%
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 25, 5:55PM-6:00PM ET May 25 $5 +$1 +10%
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 25, 5:50PM-5:55PM ET May 25 $5 +$7 +134%
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 25, 5:45PM-5:50PM ET May 25 $5 +$4 +79%
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 24, 1:40PM-1:45PM ET May 24 $5 +$2 +34%
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 24, 1:35PM-1:40PM ET May 24 $5 $0 +4%
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 24, 1:30PM-1:35PM ET May 24 $5 +$1 +19%
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 24, 1:25PM-1:30PM ET May 24 $5 +$2 +40%
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 24, 1:20PM-1:25PM ET May 24 $5 +$1 +22%
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 24, 1:15PM-1:20PM ET May 24 $5 −$5 -98%
Latest 50 closed markets. Resolution = Polymarket fact (redeemable/curPrice), not a timer.
crypto 80% +$3
other 20% −$24
Share of volume and PnL by niche (realized + unrealized). Shows where the trader actually earns — and where they bleed.
Latest trades by this wallet
Marketsidepricesizewhen
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 13, 4:05PM-4:10PM ET BUY Down 86¢ $1 1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 13, 4:00PM-4:05PM ET BUY Up 36¢ $1 1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 13, 3:55PM-4:00PM ET BUY Down 94¢ $1 1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 13, 3:55PM-4:00PM ET BUY Down 88¢ $1 1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 13, 3:50PM-3:55PM ET BUY Down 60¢ $1 1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 13, 3:45PM-3:50PM ET BUY Up 59¢ $1 1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 13, 3:45PM-3:50PM ET BUY Up 59¢ $1 1h
Will Morocco win on 2026-06-13? BUY Yes 17¢ $1 29h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 8, 3:40PM-3:45PM ET BUY Up 77¢ $1 5d
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 8, 3:35PM-3:40PM ET SELL Down 99¢ $1 5d
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 8, 3:35PM-3:40PM ET BUY Down 67¢ $1 5d
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 29, 6:35PM-6:40PM ET BUY Up 17¢ $1 14d
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 28, 4:00PM-4:05PM ET BUY Up 29¢ $1 16d
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 28, 3:55PM-4:00PM ET BUY Up 26¢ $1 16d
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 28, 3:50PM-3:55PM ET BUY Up 32¢ $1 16d
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 28, 2:40PM-2:45PM ET BUY Down 31¢ $1 16d
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 27, 7:55PM-8:00PM ET BUY Down 27¢ $1 16d
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 27, 7:45PM-7:50PM ET BUY Down 23¢ $1 16d
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 27, 7:40PM-7:45PM ET BUY Down 48¢ $1 16d
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 27, 7:35PM-7:40PM ET BUY Up 26¢ $1 16d
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 27, 7:30PM-7:35PM ET BUY Down 33¢ $1 16d
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 27, 7:25PM-7:30PM ET BUY Up 4¢ $1 16d
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 26, 8:45PM-8:50PM ET BUY Up 63¢ $5 17d
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 26, 8:45PM-8:50PM ET BUY Up 76¢ $5 17d
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 26, 8:35PM-8:40PM ET BUY Down 88¢ $5 17d
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 26, 8:20PM-8:25PM ET BUY Up 85¢ $5 17d
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 26, 8:15PM-8:20PM ET BUY Down 85¢ $10 17d
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 26, 8:10PM-8:15PM ET BUY Down 69¢ $10 17d
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 26, 3:35PM-3:40PM ET BUY Down 58¢ $5 18d
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 26, 3:30PM-3:35PM ET BUY Up 95¢ $10 18d
From the wallet’s activity history (Polymarket /activity), latest 30.
negative after costs — do not copy
break-even: the trader needs > 10.5% gross ROI/market for the copier to break even
chance a trade nets +49%
net ROI/market (all)-21.9%
timeframemarkets gross ROINET ROI gross WRNET WR net PnL (wtd)
≤7d 7 +1.2% -8.4% 71% 57% -0.7%
≤30d 67 -15.4% -23.4% 63% 48% -16.0%
≤90d 68 -13.7% -21.9% 63% 49% -13.6%
all 68 -13.7% -21.9% 63% 49% -13.6%
<b>gross</b> = as the leader traded. <b>net</b> = what WE’d keep after slippage (we enter later, price moved). Net ROI ≤ 0 → copying loses even if the leader profits.
turnover2.7 tr/day
realistic slip~5%
edge survives to0%
copier slippageNET ROINET WRnet PnL (wtd)
5% ideal ← realistic here -21.9% 49% -13.6%
10% -29.4% 31% -21.9%
15% -36.2% 24% -29.5%
20% -42.4% 12% -36.4%
Realistic slippage grows with turnover and leader size. If net ROI turns negative before the realistic slip — it’s a <b>trap</b>: leader profits, you lose.
✓ Calibrated vs Polymarket: our portfolio calc $19.32 · official $19.32 (match) · 171 history records