trader profile + honest PnL by actual resolution and NET edge after slippage — worth copying?
| Market | outcome | entry | now | invested | value | unrealized PnL |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Will the Fed decrease interest rates by 25 bps after the June 2026 meeting? | Yes | 0¢ | 0¢ | $16 | $13 | −$3 (-20%) |
| Will no Fed rate cuts happen in 2026? | No | 23¢ | 21¢ | $12 | $11 | −$1 (-6%) |
| Will the Fed decrease interest rates by 25 bps after the July 2026 meeting? | Yes | 2¢ | 3¢ | $4 | $5 | +$1 (+29%) |
| Will Trump agree to unfreeze Iranian assets by June 30? | No | 42¢ | 57¢ | $1 | $1 | +$0 (+37%) |
| Will there be no change in Fed interest rates after the July 2026 meeting? | No | 8¢ | 8¢ | $1 | $1 | −$0 (-6%) |
| Will there be no change in Fed interest rates after the June 2026 meeting? | No | 1¢ | 1¢ | $1 | $1 | −$0 (-21%) |
| Market | when | invested | PnL | ROI |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Will Trump agree to Iranian oil sanction relief by June 30? | Jun 14 | $1 | $0 | +16% |
| timeframe | markets | gross ROI | NET ROI | gross WR | NET WR | net PnL (wtd) |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| ≤7d | 1 | +15.7% | +4.7% | 100% | 100% | +4.7% |
| ≤30d | 1 | +15.7% | +4.7% | 100% | 100% | +4.7% |
| ≤90d | 1 | +15.7% | +4.7% | 100% | 100% | +4.7% |
| all | 1 | +15.7% | +4.7% | 100% | 100% | +4.7% |
| copier slippage | NET ROI | NET WR | net PnL (wtd) |
|---|---|---|---|
| 5% ideal ← realistic here | +4.7% | 100% | +4.7% |
| 10% | -5.3% | 0% | -5.3% |
| 15% | -14.5% | 0% | -14.5% |
| 20% | -22.9% | 0% | -22.9% |