Wallet analysis

2026-06-17T14:02:02+00:00

trader profile + honest PnL by actual resolution and NET edge after slippage — worth copying?

2.5
score
84 0x84d9…76db sports 1095 markets active 1h ago coverage 233d ⚠
TRAPdo not copy sports specialistFading edge⚠ High turnover⚠ Covers last 233d only
✗ negative after realistic slippage! high turnover
Total PnL +$1,238 (+1%) realized +$1,327 · open −$89
Copy trade Watchlist View on Polymarket ↗
Gross ROI / mkt -2% what the leader earns
→−copy tax
Net edge / mkt -18% what you keep after slip
Net edge-18%after slip
Net WR46%break-even
Win rate48%516W / 551L
Whale WR75%big bets
Drawdown100%max
Avg bet$131per market
Trades / day9.9pace
Fees−$785est.
Kalshi-fit95%portable
Net worth$1,337now

Equity curve

realized PnL
1W 1M 3M YTD 1Y All
2 days+$294
7 days+$1,936
14 days−$4,355
30 days−$758
Cards show realized PnL over calendar windows (by resolution date). The “Total PnL” chart appears for wallets we track daily.

Categories

share · PnL
sports 96% +$1,325
other 3% +$194
finance 1% −$84
world 1% −$21
politics 0% −$280
crypto 0% +$5
tech 0% −$22
Share of volume and PnL by niche (realized + unrealized). Shows where the trader actually earns — and where they bleed.

The copy-tax — evidence

gross is the leader · net is you

Net edge · by timeframe

gross → net
negative after costs — do not copy
break-even: the trader needs > 10.5% gross ROI/market for the copier to break even
chance a trade nets +46%
net ROI/market (all)-11.3%
timeframemarkets gross ROINET ROI gross WRNET WR net PnL (wtd)
≤7d 54 +26.7% +14.6% 56% 46% +11.7%
≤30d 238 -12.3% -20.6% 42% 37% -12.2%
≤90d 463 +0.7% -8.9% 48% 43% -5.7%
all 1067 -2.0% -11.3% 48% 46% -8.8%
<b>gross</b> = as the leader traded. <b>net</b> = what WE’d keep after slippage (we enter later, price moved). Net ROI ≤ 0 → copying loses even if the leader profits.

Slippage survival

net ROI/WR at slip
turnover9.9 tr/day
realistic slip~9%
edge survives to0%
copier slippageNET ROINET WRnet PnL (wtd)
5% ideal ← realistic here -11.3% 46% -8.8%
10% -19.8% 45% -17.5%
15% -27.6% 44% -25.5%
20% -34.7% 42% -32.8%
Realistic slippage grows with turnover and leader size. If net ROI turns negative before the realistic slip — it’s a <b>trap</b>: leader profits, you lose.

Edge quality

honest signals — luck vs skill
Profit concentration
top 1% · top 2 2% broad-based profit
Edge freshness (90d)
90d ROI +4% 90d near zero / fading
Fragile wins
6% wins margin < slip solid win margins
Flat-copyable
equal-wt -2% · $-wt +1% edge needs big-bet sizing — not flat-copyable
Big bets
big-bet WR 75% (≥$500) strong on big bets
Persistence
early +7% → late -11% edge faded
Add-ons / DCA
1.9 add-ons/market adds to positions
Win / loss size
+$121 vs −$112 · ×1.08 wins ≈ losses
Profit factor
×1.02 profit barely above losses
Copy size
≥ $50 mirror leader trades ≥ this size to copy only main ideas

Supporting detail

233d coverage
Net worth$1,337
Realized+$1,327
Unrealized−$89
Win rate (resolved)48%
Wins / losses516 / 551
Whale WR (big bets)75%
Est. fees paid−$785
Open positions27
Markets (closed)1067 / 1095
History coverage233d ⚠
Avg bet$131
Trades / day9.9
Drawdown100%
Kalshi-fit95%

Ledger

positions · history · trades
Positions 27 History 1067 Trades
Open positions — marked to current price, like Polymarket
Marketoutcome entrynow investedvalue unrealized PnL
UFC Fight Night: Kyoji Horiguchi vs. Manel Kape (Flyweight, Main Card) Manel Kape 59¢ 60¢ $354 $357 +$3 (+1%)
Will Lionel Messi be the top goalscorer at the 2026 FIFA World Cup? No 75¢ 75¢ $150 $151 +$0 (+0%)
Will Jérémy Doku score a goal at the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Yes 69¢ 68¢ $124 $122 −$2 (-2%)
Counter-Strike: Aurora Gaming vs BetBoom Team (BO3) - IEM Cologne Major Playoffs Aurora Gaming 55¢ 55¢ $120 $119 −$1 (-1%)
Will Florian Wirtz record the most assists at the 2026 FIFA World Cup? No 90¢ 95¢ $69 $72 +$4 (+5%)
Will Vitality win IEM Cologne Major 2026? No 60¢ 62¢ $60 $62 +$2 (+2%)
Will Aurora win IEM Cologne Major 2026? Yes 1¢ 4¢ $15 $52 +$37 (+242%)
Counter-Strike: Vitality vs Team Falcons (BO3) - IEM Cologne Major Playoffs Team Falcons 29¢ 30¢ $49 $50 +$1 (+2%)
Will Vitality reach the Grand Final at IEM Cologne Major 2026? Yes 56¢ 50¢ $56 $49 −$6 (-12%)
UFC Fight Night: Christian Rodriguez vs. Hyder Amil (Featherweight, Main Card) Christian Rodriguez 61¢ 62¢ $41 $42 +$1 (+2%)
Will Spirit reach the Grand Final at IEM Cologne Major 2026? Yes 44¢ 34¢ $44 $34 −$10 (-22%)
Will Kylian Mbappe score 4+ goals during the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Yes 66¢ 84¢ $27 $34 +$7 (+27%)
Will Erling Haaland score 4+ goals during the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Yes 34¢ 68¢ $17 $34 +$17 (+99%)
Will Portugal win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Yes 9¢ 10¢ $27 $31 +$4 (+15%)
Will Germany win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Yes 5¢ 6¢ $20 $21 +$1 (+5%)
Will Vinicius Jr. score 4+ goals during the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Yes 28¢ 40¢ $13 $18 +$6 (+45%)
Will BetBoom win IEM Cologne Major 2026? Yes 2¢ 4¢ $10 $18 +$8 (+82%)
Will Harry Kane score 4+ goals during the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Yes 54¢ 57¢ $11 $11 +$1 (+6%)
Will Norway win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Yes 2¢ 3¢ $10 $10 +$0 (+2%)
Will Ecuador win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Yes 1¢ 0¢ $17 $9 −$7 (-44%)
Will Netherlands win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Yes 3¢ 4¢ $7 $9 +$2 (+31%)
Will Mexico win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Yes 1¢ 1¢ $7 $9 +$2 (+32%)
Will Belgium win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Yes 2¢ 2¢ $10 $8 −$2 (-18%)
Will Michael Olise score a goal at the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Yes 70¢ 81¢ $7 $8 +$1 (+16%)
Will Spencer Pratt win the 2026 Los Angeles mayoral election? Yes 22¢ 1¢ $122 $5 −$117 (-96%)
Top-25 open positions by current value. Prices in cents = market-implied probability (50¢ = 50%). Plus 30 resolved losing bets — already counted in realized PnL, so not shown here.
Closed markets — PnL by actual resolution, newest first
MarketwheninvestedPnLROI
Asuncion 2: Nicolas Kicker vs Federico Coria Jun 16 $248 +$182 +73%
ITF Gyula: Jan Hrazdil vs Tudor Batin Jun 16 $213 −$210 -99%
Counter-Strike: BetBoom Team vs FUT Esports (BO3) - IEM Cologne Major Jun 15 $152 +$174 +114%
Counter-Strike: 9z vs TheMongolz (BO3) - IEM Cologne Major Stage 3 Jun 15 $91 +$149 +163%
UFC Freedom 250: Justin Gaethje vs. Ilia Topuria (Lightweight, Main Ca Jun 15 $1,551 +$822 +53%
UFC Freedom 250: Steve Garcia vs. Diego Lopes (Featherweight, Main Car Jun 15 $709 +$500 +70%
Will Sweden win on 2026-06-14? Jun 15 $51 −$50 -98%
Games Total: O/U 2.5 Jun 14 $52 −$52 -100%
Games Total: O/U 2.5 Jun 14 $61 +$67 +109%
Counter-Strike: Natus Vincere vs Team Falcons (BO3) - IEM Cologne Majo Jun 14 $107 −$106 -99%
Games Total: O/U 2.5 Jun 14 $250 +$10 +4%
Map Handicap: VIT (-1.5) vs BetBoom Team (+1.5) Jun 14 $252 +$8 +3%
Games Total: O/U 2.5 Jun 14 $39 +$47 +122%
Counter-Strike: MOUZ vs FUT Esports - Map 2 Winner Jun 14 $150 +$60 +40%
Counter-Strike: G2 vs Legacy (BO3) - IEM Cologne Major Stage 3 Jun 14 $39 −$39 -100%
Games Total: O/U 2.5 Jun 14 $62 −$62 -100%
Counter-Strike: MOUZ vs FUT Esports (BO3) - IEM Cologne Major Stage 3 Jun 14 $101 −$100 -99%
Will Brazil win on 2026-06-13? Jun 14 $70 +$110 +156%
Games Total: O/U 2.5 Jun 14 $49 +$101 +206%
Games Total: O/U 2.5 Jun 13 $87 −$87 -100%
Counter-Strike: Team Falcons vs Monte - Map 2 Winner Jun 13 $65 +$195 +300%
Counter-Strike: Aurora Gaming vs G2 (BO3) - IEM Cologne Major Stage 3 Jun 13 $70 +$100 +144%
Map Handicap: VIT (-1.5) vs MOUZ (+1.5) Jun 13 $192 +$3 +1%
Games Total: O/U 2.5 Jun 13 $48 −$48 -100%
Games Total: O/U 2.5 Jun 13 $46 +$59 +127%
Games Total: O/U 2.5 Jun 13 $196 −$192 -98%
Counter-Strike: BetBoom Team vs FURIA (BO3) - IEM Cologne Major Stage Jun 13 $70 −$70 -100%
Counter-Strike: Spirit vs 9z (BO3) - IEM Cologne Major Stage 3 Jun 13 $18 −$18 -100%
Map Handicap: NAVI (-1.5) vs TheMongolz (+1.5) Jun 13 $48 −$48 -99%
Will Canada win on 2026-06-12? Jun 12 $70 +$30 +42%
Games Total: O/U 2.5 Jun 12 $14 +$28 +203%
Games Total: O/U 2.5 Jun 12 $56 +$144 +257%
Counter-Strike: Vitality vs 9z (BO3) - IEM Cologne Major Stage 3 Jun 12 $13 +$87 +673%
SpaceX IPO closing market cap above $2.2T? Jun 12 $6 −$6 -100%
Tucuman: Nicolas Kicker vs Federico Coria Jun 12 $170 +$130 +76%
Games Total: O/U 2.5 Jun 12 $167 +$124 +75%
Counter-Strike: Team Falcons vs BetBoom Team - Map 2 Winner Jun 12 $582 −$322 -55%
Games Total: O/U 2.5 Jun 12 $260 $0 -0%
Counter-Strike: Aurora Gaming vs Spirit - Map 2 Winner Jun 12 $182 $0 -0%
Counter-Strike: Aurora Gaming vs Spirit (BO3) - IEM Cologne Major Stag Jun 12 $40 −$40 -100%
Map Handicap: VIT (-1.5) vs 9z (+1.5) Jun 12 $339 +$1 +0%
Games Total: O/U 2.5 Jun 12 $227 +$25 +11%
Games Total: O/U 2.5 Jun 12 $2 +$3 +113%
HSBC Championships: Sorana Cirstea vs Emma Raducanu Jun 12 $144 +$158 +110%
Map Handicap: FUT (-1.5) vs G2 (+1.5) Jun 12 $25 −$25 -100%
Games Total: O/U 2.5 Jun 12 $45 −$45 -100%
Counter-Strike: FURIA vs B8 - Map 2 Winner Jun 11 $242 +$8 +3%
Games Total: O/U 2.5 Jun 11 $38 +$62 +163%
Games Total: O/U 2.5 Jun 11 $1 −$1 -100%
Stuttgart Open: Sho Shimabukuro vs Nick Kyrgios Jun 11 $305 +$222 +73%
Latest 50 closed markets. Resolution = Polymarket fact (redeemable/curPrice), not a timer.
Latest trades by this wallet
Marketsidepricesizewhen
Will Jérémy Doku score a goal at the 2026 FIFA World Cup? BUY Yes 67¢ $67 1h
Counter-Strike: Vitality vs Team Falcons (BO3) - IEM Cologne Major Pla BUY Team Falcons 29¢ $3 6h
Counter-Strike: Vitality vs Team Falcons (BO3) - IEM Cologne Major Pla BUY Team Falcons 29¢ $1 6h
Counter-Strike: Vitality vs Team Falcons (BO3) - IEM Cologne Major Pla BUY Team Falcons 29¢ $1 6h
Counter-Strike: Vitality vs Team Falcons (BO3) - IEM Cologne Major Pla BUY Team Falcons 29¢ $1 6h
Counter-Strike: Vitality vs Team Falcons (BO3) - IEM Cologne Major Pla BUY Team Falcons 29¢ $41 6h
Counter-Strike: Vitality vs Team Falcons (BO3) - IEM Cologne Major Pla BUY Team Falcons 29¢ $1 6h
UFC Fight Night: Christian Rodriguez vs. Hyder Amil (Featherweight, Ma BUY Christian Rodriguez 61¢ $7 8h
Counter-Strike: Aurora Gaming vs BetBoom Team (BO3) - IEM Cologne Majo BUY Aurora Gaming 55¢ $122 9h
Will Lionel Messi be the top goalscorer at the 2026 FIFA World Cup? BUY No 75¢ $150 9h
UFC Fight Night: Kyoji Horiguchi vs. Manel Kape (Flyweight, Main Card) BUY Manel Kape 59¢ $230 10h
UFC Fight Night: Kyoji Horiguchi vs. Manel Kape (Flyweight, Main Card) BUY Manel Kape 59¢ $108 11h
Will Harry Kane score 4+ goals during the 2026 FIFA World Cup? BUY Yes 54¢ $11 11h
UFC Fight Night: Kyoji Horiguchi vs. Manel Kape (Flyweight, Main Card) BUY Manel Kape 59¢ $16 13h
UFC Fight Night: Christian Rodriguez vs. Hyder Amil (Featherweight, Ma BUY Christian Rodriguez 61¢ $4 16h
Asuncion 2: Nicolas Kicker vs Federico Coria BUY Nicolas Kicker 55¢ $4 19h
Asuncion 2: Nicolas Kicker vs Federico Coria BUY Nicolas Kicker 55¢ $11 19h
Asuncion 2: Nicolas Kicker vs Federico Coria BUY Nicolas Kicker 55¢ $24 19h
Asuncion 2: Nicolas Kicker vs Federico Coria BUY Nicolas Kicker 55¢ $6 19h
Asuncion 2: Nicolas Kicker vs Federico Coria BUY Nicolas Kicker 55¢ $24 19h
Asuncion 2: Nicolas Kicker vs Federico Coria BUY Nicolas Kicker 55¢ $24 19h
Asuncion 2: Nicolas Kicker vs Federico Coria BUY Nicolas Kicker 55¢ $3 20h
UFC Fight Night: Christian Rodriguez vs. Hyder Amil (Featherweight, Ma BUY Christian Rodriguez 61¢ $15 21h
UFC Fight Night: Christian Rodriguez vs. Hyder Amil (Featherweight, Ma BUY Christian Rodriguez 61¢ $15 21h
Asuncion 2: Nicolas Kicker vs Federico Coria BUY Nicolas Kicker 55¢ $1 21h
Asuncion 2: Nicolas Kicker vs Federico Coria BUY Nicolas Kicker 55¢ $3 21h
Asuncion 2: Nicolas Kicker vs Federico Coria BUY Nicolas Kicker 55¢ $11 21h
Asuncion 2: Nicolas Kicker vs Federico Coria BUY Nicolas Kicker 55¢ $1 23h
Asuncion 2: Nicolas Kicker vs Federico Coria BUY Nicolas Kicker 60¢ $9 25h
ITF Gyula: Jan Hrazdil vs Tudor Batin BUY Jan Hrazdil 56¢ $213 30h
From the wallet’s activity history (Polymarket /activity), latest 30.
✓ Calibrated vs Polymarket: our portfolio calc $1,337.24 · official $1,337.21 (match) · 3500 history records