Wallet analysis

2026-06-20T06:19:29+00:00

trader profile + honest PnL by actual resolution and NET edge after slippage — worth copying?

0.0
score
84 0x84d8…09fa world 36 markets active 2h ago coverage 432d
TRAPdo not copy world specialistFading edge
✗ profit hinges on one bet (luck, not edge)✗ wins on margins thinner than slippage
Total PnL +$7 (+1%) realized +$7 · open +$0
Copy trade Watchlist View on Polymarket ↗
Gross ROI / mkt +54% what the leader earns
→−copy tax
Net edge / mkt +39% what you keep after slip
Net edge+39%after slip
Net WR3%break-even
Win rate40%14W / 21L
Drawdown44%max
Avg bet$27per market
Trades / day0.3pace
Kalshi-fit78%portable
Net worth$42now

Equity curve

realized PnL
1W 1M 3M YTD 1Y All
2 days+$0
7 days−$4
14 days−$2
30 days−$2
Cards show realized PnL over calendar windows (by resolution date). The “Total PnL” chart appears for wallets we track daily.

Categories

share · PnL
world 74% −$2
other 11% +$8
politics 7% $0
crypto 7% $0
economics 1% $0
Share of volume and PnL by niche (realized + unrealized). Shows where the trader actually earns — and where they bleed.

The copy-tax — evidence

gross is the leader · net is you

Net edge · by timeframe

gross → net
borderline — thin edge, slippage-sensitive
break-even: the trader needs > 10.5% gross ROI/market for the copier to break even
chance a trade nets +3%
net ROI/market (all)+39.4%
timeframemarkets gross ROINET ROI gross WRNET WR net PnL (wtd)
≤7d 6 -2.0% -11.3% 50% 0% -11.0%
≤30d 19 -0.5% -10.0% 32% 0% -9.8%
≤90d 19 -0.5% -10.0% 32% 0% -9.8%
all 35 +54.0% +39.4% 40% 3% -10.0%
<b>gross</b> = as the leader traded. <b>net</b> = what WE’d keep after slippage (we enter later, price moved). Net ROI ≤ 0 → copying loses even if the leader profits.

Slippage survival

net ROI/WR at slip
turnover0.3 tr/day
realistic slip~5%
edge survives to20%
copier slippageNET ROINET WRnet PnL (wtd)
5% ideal ← realistic here +39.4% 3% -10.0%
10% +26.0% 3% -18.6%
15% +13.9% 3% -26.5%
20% +2.7% 3% -33.7%
Realistic slippage grows with turnover and leader size. If net ROI turns negative before the realistic slip — it’s a <b>trap</b>: leader profits, you lose.

Edge quality

honest signals — luck vs skill
Profit concentration
top 79% · top 2 85% profit hinges on 1 bet — luck, not edge
Edge freshness (90d)
90d ROI -0% 90d near zero / fading
Fragile wins
93% wins margin < slip most wins thinner than slippage → losses for you
Flat-copyable
equal-wt +54% · $-wt +1% works when copied flat
Big bets
big-bet WR —% no data
Persistence
early +112% → late -1% edge faded
Add-ons / DCA
1.6 add-ons/market adds to positions
Win / loss size
+$1 vs −$1 · ×1.6 wins bigger than losses
Profit factor
×1.72 per $1 lost it wins $1.72
Copy size
≥ $50 mirror leader trades ≥ this size to copy only main ideas

Supporting detail

432d coverage
Net worth$42
Realized+$7
Unrealized+$0
Win rate (resolved)40%
Wins / losses14 / 21
Open positions1
Markets (closed)35 / 36
History coverage432d
Avg bet$27
Trades / day0.3
Drawdown44%
Kalshi-fit78%

Ledger

positions · history · trades
Positions 1 History 35 Trades
Open positions — marked to current price, like Polymarket
Marketoutcome entrynow investedvalue unrealized PnL
Will Russia capture all of Stepnohirsk by September 30, 2026? No 89¢ 88¢ $42 $42 −$0 (-0%)
Top-25 open positions by current value. Prices in cents = market-implied probability (50¢ = 50%).
Closed markets — PnL by actual resolution, newest first
MarketwheninvestedPnLROI
Cuban regime falls in 2026? Jun 19 $7 $0 +0%
Will Avigdor Lieberman be the next Prime Minister of Israel? Jun 19 $80 $0 +0%
Russia x Ukraine ceasefire agreement by June 30, 2026? Jun 18 $41 $0 +0%
Will Russia capture all of Kupiansk by June 30? Jun 15 $41 $0 +0%
Israel x Hezbollah permanent peace deal by June 30, 2026? Jun 14 $43 −$1 -2%
Will Benjamin Netanyahu be the next Prime Minister of Israel? Jun 13 $33 −$4 -11%
Will the United Kingdom send warships through the Strait of Hormuz by Jun 13 $3 $0 +0%
Strait of Hormuz traffic returns to normal by July 31? Jun 12 $25 +$1 +2%
US-Iran nuclear deal before 2027? Jun 11 $19 +$1 +6%
Will Donald Trump announce that the United States blockade of the Stra Jun 09 $45 $0 +0%
Will Alireza Arafi be head of state in Iran end of 2026? Jun 07 $86 $0 +0%
Will the U.S. invade Cuba in 2026? Jun 06 $8 $0 -0%
Will Reza Pahlavi enter Iran by June 30? Jun 05 $1 $0 -7%
Ukraine agrees not to join NATO by June 30? Jun 05 $44 $0 -0%
Iran closes its airspace by June 30? Jun 05 $36 $0 -0%
Russia x Ukraine ceasefire agreement by December 31, 2026? Jun 04 $22 $0 +2%
Will Itamar Ben Gvir be the next Prime Minister of Israel? Jun 04 $81 $0 -0%
Ukraine signs peace deal with Russia before 2027? Jun 04 $44 $0 +0%
US strike on Cuba by December 31? Jun 03 $41 $0 +0%
Will Bitcoin reach $150K in June? Dec 15 $1 $0 +1%
Will federal spending decrease by $1-2t between Q4 2024 and Q2 2025? Dec 15 $2 $0 +1%
Fed decreases interest rates by 50+ bps after July 2025 meeting? Jun 26 $13 $0 +2%
Will the Los Angeles Rams win Super Bowl 2026? Jun 26 $17 $0 -0%
Will Nicușor Dan win by 6–12%? May 22 $0 +$13 +19900%
Will Trump acquire Greenland before July? May 21 $44 $0 +1%
Will the Cleveland Cavaliers win the Eastern Conference? May 16 $5 −$5 -100%
Will the Arizona Diamondbacks win the 2025 World Series? Apr 22 $18 $0 +0%
Will Ethereum dip to $1000 in April? Apr 21 $19 $0 -1%
Will CDU/CSU and AfD form the next German Government? Apr 21 $19 $0 +0%
Will Trump pardon Roger Ver in his first 100 days? Apr 20 $21 $0 -0%
Will Sebastian-Constantin Popescu advance to the Romanian Presidential Apr 20 $1 $0 +0%
Will Trump meet with Mohammed bin Salman in his first 100 days? Apr 19 $2 $0 -4%
Will the price of Ethereum be between $1300 and $1400 on Apr 18? Apr 19 $23 $0 +0%
Will Bitcoin dip to $60k in April? Apr 17 $22 $0 +1%
Trump ends Ukraine war in first 90 days? Apr 16 $25 $0 -0%
Latest 50 closed markets. Resolution = Polymarket fact (redeemable/curPrice), not a timer.
Latest trades by this wallet
Marketsidepricesizewhen
Will Russia capture all of Stepnohirsk by September 30, 2026? BUY No 89¢ $42 1h
Cuban regime falls in 2026? SELL Yes 18¢ $7 20h
Cuban regime falls in 2026? BUY Yes 18¢ $7 22h
Will Avigdor Lieberman be the next Prime Minister of Israel? SELL No 96¢ $21 28h
Will Avigdor Lieberman be the next Prime Minister of Israel? SELL No 96¢ $17 28h
Will Avigdor Lieberman be the next Prime Minister of Israel? BUY No 95¢ $16 32h
Will Avigdor Lieberman be the next Prime Minister of Israel? BUY No 95¢ $22 32h
Will Avigdor Lieberman be the next Prime Minister of Israel? SELL No 95¢ $42 33h
Will Avigdor Lieberman be the next Prime Minister of Israel? BUY No 95¢ $42 36h
Russia x Ukraine ceasefire agreement by June 30, 2026? SELL No 97¢ $42 41h
Russia x Ukraine ceasefire agreement by June 30, 2026? BUY No 96¢ $41 43h
Will Russia capture all of Kupiansk by June 30? SELL No 98¢ $41 4d
Will Russia capture all of Kupiansk by June 30? BUY No 98¢ $41 4d
Israel x Hezbollah permanent peace deal by June 30, 2026? SELL No 82¢ $37 6d
Israel x Hezbollah permanent peace deal by June 30, 2026? BUY No 83¢ $38 6d
Will Benjamin Netanyahu be the next Prime Minister of Israel? SELL Yes 32¢ $4 6d
Will Benjamin Netanyahu be the next Prime Minister of Israel? SELL Yes 32¢ $26 6d
Will Benjamin Netanyahu be the next Prime Minister of Israel? BUY Yes 36¢ $33 6d
Israel x Hezbollah permanent peace deal by June 30, 2026? SELL Yes 14¢ $5 6d
Israel x Hezbollah permanent peace deal by June 30, 2026? BUY Yes 14¢ $5 7d
Will the United Kingdom send warships through the Strait of Hormuz by SELL Yes 4¢ $2 7d
Will the United Kingdom send warships through the Strait of Hormuz by SELL Yes 4¢ $1 7d
Will the United Kingdom send warships through the Strait of Hormuz by BUY Yes 4¢ $3 7d
Strait of Hormuz traffic returns to normal by July 31? SELL Yes 47¢ $26 7d
Strait of Hormuz traffic returns to normal by July 31? BUY Yes 46¢ $1 7d
Strait of Hormuz traffic returns to normal by July 31? BUY Yes 46¢ $24 7d
US-Iran nuclear deal before 2027? SELL No 38¢ $5 9d
US-Iran nuclear deal before 2027? SELL No 38¢ $15 9d
US-Iran nuclear deal before 2027? BUY No 36¢ $3 9d
US-Iran nuclear deal before 2027? BUY No 36¢ $17 9d
From the wallet’s activity history (Polymarket /activity), latest 30.
✓ Calibrated vs Polymarket: our portfolio calc $41.50 · official $41.50 (match) · 115 history records