Wallet analysis

2026-06-13T03:01:05+00:00

trader profile + honest PnL by actual resolution and NET edge after slippage — worth copying?

84
0x84d8…849a
crypto · 67 markets active 0h ago
0.0score
−$824 -46%
TOTAL PnL · realized −$823 · open −$1
avoidriskycopy
✗ TRAP crypto specialist⚠ High turnover
Copy trade Watchlist View on Polymarket ↗
Net worth$3
Realized−$823
Unrealized−$1
Win rate (resolved)50%
Wins / losses32 / 32
Est. fees paid−$0
Open positions3
Markets (closed)64 / 67
History coverage8d
Avg bet$27
Trades / day18.6
Drawdown100%
Kalshi-fit100%
Chart Positions 3 History 64 Categories Trades Net edge Slippage
1W 1M 3M YTD 1Y All
2 days−$813
7 days−$823
14 days−$823
30 days−$823
Cards show realized PnL over calendar windows (by resolution date). The “Total PnL” chart appears for wallets we track daily.
Open positions — marked to current price, like Polymarket
Marketoutcome entrynow investedvalue unrealized PnL
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 12, 10:55PM-11:00PM ET Up 71¢ 100¢ $1 $1 +$0 (+40%)
Will Bitcoin reach $100,000 in June? Yes 0¢ 0¢ $2 $1 −$1 (-62%)
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 12, 11:00PM-11:05PM ET Up 73¢ 50¢ $1 $1 −$0 (-31%)
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 12, 9:35PM-9:40PM ET Down 41¢ 0¢ $5 $0 −$5 (-100%)
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 9, 10:40PM-10:45PM ET Down 49¢ 0¢ $3 $0 −$3 (-100%)
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 8, 12:15PM-12:20PM ET Down 35¢ 0¢ $4 $0 −$4 (-100%)
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 8, 12:45PM-12:50PM ET Up 45¢ 0¢ $2 $0 −$2 (-100%)
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 7, 12:20PM-12:25PM ET Down 32¢ 0¢ $2 $0 −$2 (-100%)
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 7, 2:20AM-2:25AM ET Down 10¢ 0¢ $3 $0 −$3 (-100%)
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 12, 9:45PM-9:50PM ET Down 14¢ 0¢ $1 $0 −$1 (-100%)
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 8, 11:20AM-11:25AM ET Up 53¢ 0¢ $3 $0 −$3 (-100%)
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 7, 2:15PM-2:20PM ET Up 12¢ 0¢ $2 $0 −$2 (-100%)
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 7, 6:25PM-6:30PM ET Down 35¢ 0¢ $2 $0 −$2 (-100%)
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 9, 7:45PM-7:50PM ET Up 6¢ 0¢ $2 $0 −$2 (-100%)
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 10, 1:40AM-1:45AM ET Down 17¢ 0¢ $2 $0 −$2 (-100%)
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 7, 5:10PM-5:15PM ET Down 1¢ 0¢ $2 $0 −$2 (-100%)
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 9, 9:10AM-9:15AM ET Up 51¢ 0¢ $3 $0 −$3 (-100%)
Spurs vs. Knicks Spurs 46¢ 0¢ $5 $0 −$5 (-100%)
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 9, 7:30PM-7:35PM ET Up 66¢ 0¢ $5 $0 −$5 (-100%)
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 7, 1:00PM-1:05PM ET Down 1¢ 0¢ $2 $0 −$2 (-100%)
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 12, 10:45PM-10:50PM ET Up 65¢ 0¢ $1 $0 −$1 (-100%)
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 7, 8:25PM-8:30PM ET Down 13¢ 0¢ $2 $0 −$2 (-100%)
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 7, 12:55PM-1:00PM ET Up 14¢ 0¢ $2 $0 −$2 (-100%)
Worst Cup: Fakers FC vs. Infamous FC Fakers 1¢ 0¢ $1 $0 −$1 (-100%)
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 7, 1:45PM-2:00PM ET Up 11¢ 0¢ $2 $0 −$2 (-100%)
Top-25 open positions by current value. Prices in cents = market-implied probability (50¢ = 50%).
Closed markets — PnL by actual resolution, newest first
MarketwheninvestedPnLROI
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 12, 10:45PM-10:50PM ET Jun 13 $1 −$1 -98%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 12, 9:50PM-9:55PM ET Jun 13 $1 +$1 +57%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 12, 9:45PM-9:50PM ET Jun 13 $1 −$1 -94%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 12, 9:25PM-9:30PM ET Jun 13 $4 $0 +3%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 12, 9:40PM-9:45PM ET Jun 13 $4 $0 +2%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 12, 9:35PM-9:40PM ET Jun 13 $5 −$5 -96%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 12, 9:30PM-9:35PM ET Jun 13 $1 −$1 -96%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 12, 9:15PM-9:20PM ET Jun 13 $81 −$69 -86%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 12, 9:20PM-9:25PM ET Jun 13 $5 +$2 +33%
Will Roberto Sánchez Palomino win the 2026 Peruvian presidential elect Jun 13 $427 +$179 +42%
Will Keiko Fujimori win the 2026 Peruvian presidential election? Jun 13 $989 −$917 -93%
Spurs vs. Knicks Jun 10 $5 −$5 -98%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 10, 1:40AM-1:45AM ET Jun 10 $2 −$2 -94%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 10, 1:35AM-1:40AM ET Jun 10 $2 +$1 +60%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 9, 10:40PM-10:45PM ET Jun 10 $3 −$3 -97%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 9, 9:00PM-9:05PM ET Jun 10 $3 +$5 +166%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 9, 7:45PM-7:50PM ET Jun 09 $2 −$2 -94%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 9, 7:30PM-7:35PM ET Jun 09 $5 −$5 -98%
Worst Cup: Fakers FC vs. Infamous FC Jun 09 $1 −$1 -97%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 9, 10:00AM-10:05AM ET Jun 09 $3 +$9 +280%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 9, 9:05AM-9:10AM ET Jun 09 $3 $0 +15%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 9, 9:10AM-9:15AM ET Jun 09 $3 −$3 -97%
Spurs vs. Knicks Jun 09 $4 +$4 +109%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 8, 12:45PM-12:50PM ET Jun 08 $2 −$2 -96%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 8, 12:15PM-12:20PM ET Jun 08 $4 −$4 -96%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 8, 11:20AM-11:25AM ET Jun 08 $3 −$3 -97%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 8, 11:15AM-11:20AM ET Jun 08 $3 −$3 -94%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 7, 8:30PM-8:35PM ET Jun 08 $2 $0 -10%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 7, 8:25PM-8:30PM ET Jun 08 $12 −$2 -16%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 7, 8:20PM-8:25PM ET Jun 08 $2 +$1 +26%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 7, 8:15PM-8:20PM ET Jun 08 $2 +$2 +74%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 7, 7:40PM-7:45PM ET Jun 07 $2 $0 +21%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 7, 6:35PM-6:40PM ET Jun 07 $2 $0 +13%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 7, 6:30PM-6:35PM ET Jun 07 $4 +$2 +55%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 7, 6:25PM-6:30PM ET Jun 07 $2 −$2 -96%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 7, 5:10PM-5:15PM ET Jun 07 $2 −$2 -94%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 7, 4:50PM-4:55PM ET Jun 07 $2 $0 +21%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 7, 2:45PM-2:50PM ET Jun 07 $4 $0 +6%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 7, 2:25PM-2:30PM ET Jun 07 $10 $0 +3%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 7, 2:20PM-2:25PM ET Jun 07 $10 −$10 -96%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 7, 2:15PM-2:20PM ET Jun 07 $2 −$2 -94%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 7, 2:10PM-2:15PM ET Jun 07 $4 +$1 +13%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 7, 1:45PM-2:00PM ET Jun 07 $6 +$1 +18%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 7, 1:30PM-1:45PM ET Jun 07 $4 −$1 -31%
Ethereum Up or Down - June 7, 1:15PM-1:30PM ET Jun 07 $4 +$1 +14%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 7, 1:05PM-1:10PM ET Jun 07 $10 +$2 +16%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 7, 1:00PM-1:05PM ET Jun 07 $4 −$2 -48%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 7, 12:55PM-1:00PM ET Jun 07 $4 −$2 -48%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 7, 12:50PM-12:55PM ET Jun 07 $2 $0 +1%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 7, 12:45PM-12:50PM ET Jun 07 $2 $0 +10%
Latest 50 closed markets. Resolution = Polymarket fact (redeemable/curPrice), not a timer.
politics 79% −$738
crypto 21% −$85
sports 1% −$2
Share of volume and PnL by niche (realized + unrealized). Shows where the trader actually earns — and where they bleed.
Latest trades by this wallet
Marketsidepricesizewhen
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 12, 11:00PM-11:05PM ET BUY Up 73¢ $1 0m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 12, 10:55PM-11:00PM ET BUY Up 71¢ $1 4m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 12, 10:45PM-10:50PM ET BUY Up 65¢ $1 15m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 12, 9:50PM-9:55PM ET SELL Down 99¢ $2 1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 12, 9:50PM-9:55PM ET BUY Down 61¢ $1 1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 12, 9:45PM-9:50PM ET BUY Down 14¢ $1 1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 12, 9:40PM-9:45PM ET SELL Up 99¢ $4 1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 12, 9:40PM-9:45PM ET BUY Up 97¢ $4 1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 12, 9:35PM-9:40PM ET BUY Down 41¢ $4 1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 12, 9:35PM-9:40PM ET BUY Down 43¢ $1 1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 12, 9:30PM-9:35PM ET BUY Up 39¢ $1 1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 12, 9:25PM-9:30PM ET BUY Up 97¢ $4 1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 12, 9:20PM-9:25PM ET SELL Up 99¢ $6 1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 12, 9:20PM-9:25PM ET BUY Up 69¢ $4 1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 12, 9:20PM-9:25PM ET SELL Down 26¢ $1 1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 12, 9:20PM-9:25PM ET BUY Down 22¢ $1 1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 12, 9:15PM-9:20PM ET SELL Down 99¢ $5 1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 12, 9:15PM-9:20PM ET BUY Down 74¢ $4 1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 12, 9:15PM-9:20PM ET SELL Up 6¢ $6 1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 12, 9:15PM-9:20PM ET BUY Up 67¢ $77 1h
Will Roberto Sánchez Palomino win the 2026 Peruvian presidential elect SELL Yes 2¢ $5 2h
Will Keiko Fujimori win the 2026 Peruvian presidential election? SELL No 2¢ $72 2h
Spurs vs. Knicks BUY Spurs 46¢ $5 2d
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 10, 1:40AM-1:45AM ET BUY Down 17¢ $2 2d
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 10, 1:35AM-1:40AM ET BUY Down 61¢ $2 2d
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 9, 10:40PM-10:45PM ET BUY Down 49¢ $3 3d
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 9, 9:00PM-9:05PM ET BUY Up 36¢ $3 3d
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 9, 7:45PM-7:50PM ET BUY Up 6¢ $2 3d
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 9, 7:30PM-7:35PM ET BUY Up 66¢ $5 3d
Worst Cup: Fakers FC vs. Infamous FC BUY Fakers 1¢ $1 3d
From the wallet’s activity history (Polymarket /activity), latest 30.
negative after costs — do not copy
break-even: the trader needs > 10.5% gross ROI/market for the copier to break even
chance a trade nets +41%
net ROI/market (all)-19.4%
timeframemarkets gross ROINET ROI gross WRNET WR net PnL (wtd)
≤7d 64 -11.0% -19.4% 50% 41% -52.2%
≤30d 64 -11.0% -19.4% 50% 41% -52.2%
≤90d 64 -11.0% -19.4% 50% 41% -52.2%
all 64 -11.0% -19.4% 50% 41% -52.2%
<b>gross</b> = as the leader traded. <b>net</b> = what WE’d keep after slippage (we enter later, price moved). Net ROI ≤ 0 → copying loses even if the leader profits.
turnover18.6 tr/day
realistic slip~9%
edge survives to0%
copier slippageNET ROINET WRnet PnL (wtd)
5% ideal ← realistic here -19.4% 41% -52.2%
10% -27.2% 30% -56.8%
15% -34.2% 25% -61.0%
20% -40.6% 22% -64.8%
Realistic slippage grows with turnover and leader size. If net ROI turns negative before the realistic slip — it’s a <b>trap</b>: leader profits, you lose.
✓ Calibrated vs Polymarket: our portfolio calc $2.84 · official $2.84 (match) · 163 history records