Wallet analysis

2026-06-19T16:36:44+00:00

trader profile + honest PnL by actual resolution and NET edge after slippage — worth copying?

0.5
score
84 0x84d2…98c0 other 33 markets active 1h ago coverage 25d
TRAPdo not copy ⚠ Small sample
✗ negative after realistic slippage✗ wins on margins thinner than slippage
Total PnL +$36 (+2%) realized +$37 · open −$1
Copy trade Watchlist View on Polymarket ↗
Gross ROI / mkt -4% what the leader earns
→−copy tax
Net edge / mkt -13% what you keep after slip
Net edge-13%after slip
Net WR30%break-even
Win rate81%22W / 5L
Drawdown30%max
Avg bet$49per market
Trades / day2.2pace
Fees−$1est.
Kalshi-fit36%portable
Net worth$323now

Equity curve

realized PnL
1W 1M 3M YTD 1Y All
2 days+$27
7 days+$32
14 days+$34
30 days+$34
Cards show realized PnL over calendar windows (by resolution date). The “Total PnL” chart appears for wallets we track daily.

Categories

share · PnL
other 84% +$45
sports 16% −$11
Share of volume and PnL by niche (realized + unrealized). Shows where the trader actually earns — and where they bleed.

The copy-tax — evidence

gross is the leader · net is you

Net edge · by timeframe

gross → net
negative after costs — do not copy
break-even: the trader needs > 10.5% gross ROI/market for the copier to break even
chance a trade nets +30%
net ROI/market (all)-13.1%
timeframemarkets gross ROINET ROI gross WRNET WR net PnL (wtd)
≤7d 18 +2.1% -7.6% 89% 33% -6.7%
≤30d 27 -4.0% -13.1% 81% 30% -7.1%
≤90d 27 -4.0% -13.1% 81% 30% -7.1%
all 27 -4.0% -13.1% 81% 30% -7.1%
<b>gross</b> = as the leader traded. <b>net</b> = what WE’d keep after slippage (we enter later, price moved). Net ROI ≤ 0 → copying loses even if the leader profits.

Slippage survival

net ROI/WR at slip
turnover2.2 tr/day
realistic slip~5%
edge survives to0%
copier slippageNET ROINET WRnet PnL (wtd)
5% ideal ← realistic here -13.1% 30% -7.1%
10% -21.4% 7% -16.0%
15% -29.0% 0% -24.1%
20% -36.0% 0% -31.6%
Realistic slippage grows with turnover and leader size. If net ROI turns negative before the realistic slip — it’s a <b>trap</b>: leader profits, you lose.

Edge quality

honest signals — luck vs skill
Profit concentration
top 28% · top 2 39% broad-based profit
Edge freshness (90d)
90d ROI +3% 90d near zero / fading
Fragile wins
64% wins margin < slip most wins thinner than slippage → losses for you
Flat-copyable
equal-wt -4% · $-wt +3% edge needs big-bet sizing — not flat-copyable
Big bets
big-bet WR —% no data
Persistence
early -8% → late -0% mixed
Add-ons / DCA
1.4 add-ons/market flat bettor — clean entries
Win / loss size
+$2 vs −$4 · ×0.65 wins small, loses big
Profit factor
×2.85 per $1 lost it wins $2.85
Copy size
≥ $50 mirror leader trades ≥ this size to copy only main ideas

Supporting detail

25d coverage
Net worth$323
Realized+$37
Unrealized−$1
Win rate (resolved)81%
Wins / losses22 / 5
Est. fees paid−$1
Open positions6
Markets (closed)27 / 33
History coverage25d
Avg bet$49
Trades / day2.2
Drawdown30%
Kalshi-fit36%

Ledger

positions · history · trades
Positions 6 History 27 Trades
Open positions — marked to current price, like Polymarket
Marketoutcome entrynow investedvalue unrealized PnL
Will BNP Paribas fail by June 30, 2026? No 100¢ 100¢ $100 $100 −$0 (-0%)
Will HSBC fail by June 30, 2026? No 100¢ 99¢ $100 $100 −$0 (-0%)
Will Bank of America fail by June 30, 2026? No 100¢ 99¢ $100 $100 −$0 (-0%)
Will Haiti win on 2026-06-19? No 96¢ 96¢ $20 $20 −$0 (-0%)
Will Scotland win on 2026-06-19? No 85¢ 84¢ $2 $2 −$0 (-1%)
Will Australia win on 2026-06-19? No 82¢ 81¢ $2 $2 −$0 (-1%)
Top-25 open positions by current value. Prices in cents = market-implied probability (50¢ = 50%). Plus 2 resolved losing bets — already counted in realized PnL, so not shown here.
Closed markets — PnL by actual resolution, newest first
MarketwheninvestedPnLROI
Will Mexico win on 2026-06-18? Jun 19 $3 $0 +6%
Will Korea Republic win on 2026-06-18? Jun 19 $100 +$2 +2%
Will South Africa win on 2026-06-18? Jun 18 $15 +$1 +7%
Will Uzbekistan win on 2026-06-17? Jun 18 $20 $0 +2%
Will Croatia win on 2026-06-17? Jun 17 $30 +$6 +20%
Exact Score: Portugal 0 - 2 DR Congo? Jun 17 $400 +$3 +1%
Will DR Congo win on 2026-06-17? Jun 17 $200 +$15 +7%
Will Argentina vs. Algeria end in a draw? Jun 17 $100 +$2 +2%
Will Algeria win on 2026-06-16? Jun 17 $30 +$4 +12%
Will Iraq win on 2026-06-16? Jun 17 $20 +$1 +6%
Argentina vs. Algeria: O/U 6.5 Total Corners Jun 16 $10 −$10 -99%
Will Egypt win on 2026-06-15? Jun 15 $30 +$5 +17%
Spain vs. Cabo Verde: O/U 6.5 Total Corners Jun 15 $2 $0 +11%
Will Curaçao win on 2026-06-14? Jun 14 $30 +$1 +2%
Will Qatar win on 2026-06-13? Jun 13 $6 $0 +6%
Haiti vs. Scotland: Haiti O/U 0.5 Jun 13 $2 $0 -4%
Will Paraguay win on 2026-06-12? Jun 13 $2 +$1 +29%
United States vs. Paraguay: O/U 0.5 Jun 13 $5 +$1 +11%
Will South Africa win on 2026-06-11? Jun 11 $30 +$3 +11%
LoL: New Meta vs DetonatioN FocusMe Academy (BO3) - LJL Regular Season Jun 11 $1 −$1 -100%
Dota 2: Tundra Esports vs Team Spirit (BO1) - BLAST Slam Group Stage May 26 $35 $0 -1%
Dota 2: PARIVISION vs Xtreme Gaming (BO1) - BLAST Slam Group Stage May 26 $30 +$2 +7%
Dota 2: Tundra Esports vs Aurora (BO1) - BLAST Slam Group Stage May 26 $9 −$7 -77%
Dota 2: Team Liquid vs Xtreme Gaming (BO1) - BLAST Slam Group Stage May 26 $20 +$1 +5%
Will Jalen Brunson win the 2026 Eastern Conference Finals MVP? May 26 $100 +$3 +3%
LoL: Nongshim Red Force vs Hanwha Life Esports (BO3) - Esports World C May 25 $45 +$1 +2%
LoL: Dplus KIA vs T1 (BO5) - Esports World Cup Korea Qualifier Playoff May 25 $1 $0 +28%
Latest 50 closed markets. Resolution = Polymarket fact (redeemable/curPrice), not a timer.
Latest trades by this wallet
Marketsidepricesizewhen
Will Bank of America fail by June 30, 2026? BUY No 100¢ $100 1h
Will BNP Paribas fail by June 30, 2026? BUY No 100¢ $100 1h
Will HSBC fail by June 30, 2026? BUY No 100¢ $100 1h
Will Australia win on 2026-06-19? BUY No 82¢ $2 1h
Will Haiti win on 2026-06-19? BUY No 96¢ $20 1h
Will Scotland win on 2026-06-19? BUY No 85¢ $2 1h
Will Mexico win on 2026-06-18? BUY Yes 94¢ $3 13h
Will Korea Republic win on 2026-06-18? BUY No 98¢ $100 14h
Will South Africa win on 2026-06-18? BUY No 93¢ $15 24h
Will Uzbekistan win on 2026-06-17? BUY No 98¢ $20 37h
Exact Score: Portugal 0 - 2 DR Congo? BUY No 99¢ $400 2d
Will Croatia win on 2026-06-17? BUY No 83¢ $30 2d
Will DR Congo win on 2026-06-17? BUY No 93¢ $200 2d
Will Argentina vs. Algeria end in a draw? BUY No 98¢ $100 2d
Argentina vs. Algeria: O/U 6.5 Total Corners BUY Over 74¢ $10 3d
Will Algeria win on 2026-06-16? BUY No 89¢ $30 3d
Will Iraq win on 2026-06-16? BUY No 94¢ $20 3d
Spain vs. Cabo Verde: O/U 6.5 Total Corners BUY Over 90¢ $2 4d
Will Egypt win on 2026-06-15? BUY No 85¢ $30 4d
Will Curaçao win on 2026-06-14? BUY No 98¢ $30 5d
Haiti vs. Scotland: Haiti O/U 0.5 SELL Over 60¢ $2 6d
Haiti vs. Scotland: Haiti O/U 0.5 BUY Over 61¢ $2 6d
Will Qatar win on 2026-06-13? BUY No 94¢ $6 6d
Will Paraguay win on 2026-06-12? BUY No 77¢ $2 7d
United States vs. Paraguay: O/U 0.5 BUY Over 90¢ $5 7d
Will South Africa win on 2026-06-11? BUY No 90¢ $30 8d
LoL: New Meta vs DetonatioN FocusMe Academy (BO3) - LJL Regular Season BUY DetonatioN FocusMe Academy 84¢ $1 23d
Dota 2: Tundra Esports vs Team Spirit (BO1) - BLAST Slam Group Stage SELL Team Spirit 100¢ $16 24d
Dota 2: Tundra Esports vs Team Spirit (BO1) - BLAST Slam Group Stage BUY Team Spirit 96¢ $5 24d
Dota 2: Tundra Esports vs Team Spirit (BO1) - BLAST Slam Group Stage BUY Team Spirit 93¢ $5 24d
From the wallet’s activity history (Polymarket /activity), latest 30.
✓ Calibrated vs Polymarket: our portfolio calc $323.46 · official $323.46 (match) · 74 history records