Wallet analysis

2026-06-25T16:48:14+00:00

trader profile + honest PnL by actual resolution and NET edge after slippage — worth copying?

0.0
score
84 0x84cf…3d9b world 81 markets active 0h ago coverage 162d ⚠
TRAPdo not copy world specialistFading edge⚠ High turnover⚠ Covers last 161d only
✗ negative after realistic slippage✗ wins on margins thinner than slippage! high turnover
Total PnL +$838 (+0%) realized +$834 · open +$4
Copy trade Watchlist View on Polymarket ↗
Gross ROI / mkt -1% what the leader earns
→−copy tax
Net edge / mkt -31% what you keep after slip
Net edge-31%after slip
Net WR0%break-even
Win rate94%75W / 5L
Whale WR100%big bets
Drawdown27%max
Avg bet$6,850per market
Trades / day20.9pace
Fees−$0est.
Kalshi-fit94%portable
Net worth$838now

Equity curve

realized PnL
1W 1M 3M YTD 1Y All
2 days$0
7 days$0
14 days$0
30 days+$13
Cards show realized PnL over calendar windows (by resolution date). The “Total PnL” chart appears for wallets we track daily.

Categories

share · PnL
world 92% +$760
politics 4% +$23
economics 1% +$7
other 1% +$11
crypto 0% +$13
sports 0% +$7
tech 0% +$1
culture 0% +$1
Share of volume and PnL by niche (realized + unrealized). Shows where the trader actually earns — and where they bleed.

The copy-tax — evidence

gross is the leader · net is you

Net edge · by timeframe

gross → net
negative after costs — do not copy
break-even: the trader needs > 10.5% gross ROI/market for the copier to break even
chance a trade nets +0%
net ROI/market (all)-10.1%
timeframemarkets gross ROINET ROI gross WRNET WR net PnL (wtd)
≤7d no closed markets
≤30d 2 +0.4% -9.2% 50% 0% -9.4%
≤90d 11 +0.4% -9.2% 82% 0% -9.3%
all 80 -0.6% -10.1% 94% 0% -9.4%
<b>gross</b> = as the leader traded. <b>net</b> = what WE’d keep after slippage (we enter later, price moved). Net ROI ≤ 0 → copying loses even if the leader profits.

Slippage survival

net ROI/WR at slip
turnover20.9 tr/day
realistic slip~18%
edge survives to0%
copier slippageNET ROINET WRnet PnL (wtd)
5% ideal -10.1% 0% -9.4%
10% -18.7% 0% -18.1%
15% ← realistic here -26.5% 0% -26.0%
20% -33.7% 0% -33.2%
Realistic slippage grows with turnover and leader size. If net ROI turns negative before the realistic slip — it’s a <b>trap</b>: leader profits, you lose.

Edge quality

honest signals — luck vs skill
Profit concentration
top 9% · top 2 17% broad-based profit
Edge freshness (90d)
90d ROI +0% 90d near zero / fading
Fragile wins
100% wins margin < slip most wins thinner than slippage → losses for you
Flat-copyable
equal-wt -1% · $-wt +0% edge needs big-bet sizing — not flat-copyable
Big bets
big-bet WR 100% (≥$11,962) strong on big bets
Persistence
early +0% → late -1% edge faded
Add-ons / DCA
18.2 add-ons/market averages down — deposit killer
Win / loss size
+$15 vs −$135 · ×0.11 wins small, loses big
Profit factor
×4.05 per $1 lost it wins $4.05
Copy size
≥ $700 mirror leader trades ≥ this size to copy only main ideas

Supporting detail

162d coverage
Net worth$838
Realized+$834
Unrealized+$4
Win rate (resolved)94%
Wins / losses75 / 5
Whale WR (big bets)100%
Est. fees paid−$0
Open positions1
Markets (closed)80 / 81
History coverage162d ⚠
Avg bet$6,850
Trades / day20.9
Drawdown27%
Kalshi-fit94%

Ledger

positions · history · trades
Positions 1 History 80 Trades
Open positions — marked to current price, like Polymarket
Marketoutcome entrynow investedvalue unrealized PnL
Will Ukraine recapture Crimean territory by June 30, 2026? No 99¢ 100¢ $834 $838 +$4 (+0%)
Top-25 open positions by current value. Prices in cents = market-implied probability (50¢ = 50%).
Closed markets — PnL by actual resolution, newest first
MarketwheninvestedPnLROI
Will J.D. Vance win the 2028 Republican presidential nomination? Jun 13 $5,152 $0 +0%
MicroStrategy sells any Bitcoin by May 31, 2026? Jun 05 $1,864 +$13 +1%
Will Trump say "Iran" during events with Xi Jinping? May 25 $1,821 +$24 +1%
Israel x Hezbollah Ceasefire extended by April 26, 2026? May 02 $1,840 +$2 +0%
Will Marco Rubio win the 2028 Republican presidential nomination? Apr 30 $4,801 $0 +0%
Iran x Israel/US conflict ends by April 7? Apr 25 $1,833 +$7 +0%
Israel announces suspension of Lebanon offensive by April 17, 2026? Apr 21 $261 +$1 +0%
Israel x Hezbollah ceasefire by April 18, 2026? Apr 21 $1,566 +$5 +0%
US forces enter Iran by April 30? Apr 10 $1,817 +$9 +0%
US forces enter Iran by March 31? Apr 07 $2,176 +$11 +0%
US x Iran ceasefire by March 31? Apr 01 $1,806 +$2 +0%
Will Iran strike Israel on March 10? Mar 23 $1,801 +$4 +0%
US strikes Iraq by March 7? Mar 16 $1,799 +$2 +0%
Will Trump say "Waste" this week? (March 1) Mar 10 $1,795 +$4 +0%
Will US or Israel strike Iran on March 4, 2026? Mar 04 $1,793 +$2 +0%
Khamenei out as Supreme Leader of Iran by February 28? Mar 04 $1,792 +$2 +0%
Will the US strike Iran next? Mar 02 $8,319 +$50 +1%
US strikes Iran by March 15, 2026? Feb 28 $1,740 +$2 +0%
US strikes Iran by February 27, 2026? Feb 27 $1,788 −$48 -3%
US strikes Iran by February 26, 2026? Feb 26 $15,735 +$21 +0%
US strikes Iran by February 25, 2026? Feb 25 $1,766 +$2 +0%
US strikes Iran by February 24, 2026? Feb 25 $19,296 +$22 +0%
US strikes Iran by February 23, 2026? Feb 24 $12,302 +$16 +0%
US strikes Iran by February 22, 2026? Feb 23 $21,598 +$24 +0%
US strikes Iran by February 21, 2026? Feb 22 $15,166 +$22 +0%
US strikes Iran by February 20, 2026? Feb 21 $39,669 +$47 +0%
US strikes Iran by February 19, 2026? Feb 20 $3,264 +$3 +0%
Will the US strike Iran next? Feb 20 $1,630 +$2 +0%
US strikes Iran by February 18, 2026? Feb 18 $17,574 +$21 +0%
US strikes Iran by February 17, 2026? Feb 18 $11,215 +$11 +0%
US strikes Iran by February 16, 2026? Feb 17 $7,946 +$11 +0%
US strikes Iran by February 13, 2026? Feb 14 $3,167 +$3 +0%
US strikes Iran by February 12, 2026? Feb 13 $1,579 +$3 +0%
Will Israel strike Gaza on February 10, 2026? Feb 12 $365 −$221 -61%
Will Bangladesh Nationalist Party win the most seats in the Bangladesh Feb 12 $712 $0 +0%
Will the US strike Iran next? Feb 12 $1,798 +$2 +0%
US strikes Iran by February 9, 2026? Feb 10 $29,151 +$92 +0%
US strikes Iran by February 8, 2026? Feb 09 $2,450 +$7 +0%
US strikes Iran by February 7, 2026? Feb 08 $4,880 +$10 +0%
US strikes Iran by February 6, 2026? Feb 07 $11,962 +$21 +0%
US strikes Iran by February 5, 2026? Feb 06 $1,189 +$8 +1%
Will the US strike Iran next? Feb 05 $1,186 +$4 +0%
US government shutdown Saturday? Feb 04 $2,361 +$2 +0%
US strikes Iran by February 2, 2026? Feb 03 $1,183 +$1 +0%
Will the government shutdown last 4 days or more? Feb 03 $1,182 +$1 +0%
Will Trump talk to Vladimir Putin in January? Feb 03 $4,737 +$13 +0%
U.S. anti-cartel ground operation in Mexico by January 31? Feb 03 $3,045 +$5 +0%
US strikes Iran by February 1, 2026? Feb 02 $15,310 +$18 +0%
Will Trump nominate Kevin Warsh as the next Fed chair? Feb 01 $6,163 +$6 +0%
US strikes Iran by January 31, 2026? Feb 01 $10,769 +$17 +0%
Latest 50 closed markets. Resolution = Polymarket fact (redeemable/curPrice), not a timer.
Latest trades by this wallet
Marketsidepricesizewhen
Will Ukraine recapture Crimean territory by June 30, 2026? SELL No 100¢ $8 26m
Will Ukraine recapture Crimean territory by June 30, 2026? SELL No 100¢ $3 38m
Will Ukraine recapture Crimean territory by June 30, 2026? SELL No 100¢ $1 1h
Will Ukraine recapture Crimean territory by June 30, 2026? SELL No 100¢ $2 1h
Will Ukraine recapture Crimean territory by June 30, 2026? SELL No 100¢ $2 1h
Will Ukraine recapture Crimean territory by June 30, 2026? SELL No 100¢ $2 1h
Will Ukraine recapture Crimean territory by June 30, 2026? SELL No 100¢ $1,023 1h
Will Ukraine recapture Crimean territory by June 30, 2026? BUY No 99¢ $87 9d
Will Ukraine recapture Crimean territory by June 30, 2026? BUY No 99¢ $50 9d
Will Ukraine recapture Crimean territory by June 30, 2026? BUY No 99¢ $99 9d
Will Ukraine recapture Crimean territory by June 30, 2026? BUY No 99¢ $1,208 9d
Will Ukraine recapture Crimean territory by June 30, 2026? BUY No 99¢ $0 11d
Will Ukraine recapture Crimean territory by June 30, 2026? BUY No 99¢ $424 11d
MicroStrategy sells any Bitcoin by May 31, 2026? BUY No 99¢ $1,864 23d
Will Trump say "Iran" during events with Xi Jinping? BUY No 99¢ $1,669 37d
Will Trump say "Iran" during events with Xi Jinping? BUY No 99¢ $76 37d
Will Trump say "Iran" during events with Xi Jinping? BUY No 99¢ $76 37d
Israel x Hezbollah Ceasefire extended by April 26, 2026? BUY Yes 100¢ $1,840 56d
Iran x Israel/US conflict ends by April 7? BUY Yes 100¢ $1,833 64d
Israel x Hezbollah ceasefire by April 18, 2026? BUY Yes 100¢ $1,566 69d
Israel announces suspension of Lebanon offensive by April 17, 2026? BUY Yes 100¢ $173 69d
Israel announces suspension of Lebanon offensive by April 17, 2026? BUY Yes 100¢ $19 69d
Israel announces suspension of Lebanon offensive by April 17, 2026? BUY Yes 100¢ $69 69d
US forces enter Iran by April 30? BUY Yes 100¢ $1,298 78d
US forces enter Iran by April 30? BUY Yes 100¢ $519 78d
US forces enter Iran by March 31? BUY No 99¢ $1,808 85d
US x Iran ceasefire by March 31? BUY No 100¢ $1,806 85d
US forces enter Iran by March 31? SELL No 91¢ $18 86d
US forces enter Iran by March 31? SELL No 92¢ $233 86d
US forces enter Iran by March 31? SELL No 92¢ $82 86d
From the wallet’s activity history (Polymarket /activity), latest 30.
✓ Calibrated vs Polymarket: our portfolio calc $838.03 · official $838.03 (match) · 3500 history records