Wallet analysis

2026-06-19T23:40:09+00:00

trader profile + honest PnL by actual resolution and NET edge after slippage — worth copying?

0.0
score
84 0x84cf…5ad0 other 43 markets active 0h ago coverage 145d
TRAPdo not copy Fading edge
✗ negative after realistic slippage✗ profit hinges on one bet (luck, not edge)✗ 90-day edge negative — edge has died
Total PnL +$13,740 (+19%) realized +$13,698 · open +$42
Copy trade Watchlist View on Polymarket ↗
Gross ROI / mkt +7% what the leader earns
→−copy tax
Net edge / mkt -7% what you keep after slip
Net edge-7%after slip
Net WR34%break-even
Win rate37%13W / 22L
Whale WR33%big bets
Drawdown65%max
Avg bet$1,646per market
Trades / day2.0pace
Kalshi-fit44%portable
Net worth$4,023now

Equity curve

realized PnL
1W 1M 3M YTD 1Y All
2 days+$1,375
7 days−$15,349
14 days−$15,349
30 days−$15,349
Cards show realized PnL over calendar windows (by resolution date). The “Total PnL” chart appears for wallets we track daily.

Categories

share · PnL
world 78% +$12,491
other 22% +$1,246
crypto 1% −$14
Share of volume and PnL by niche (realized + unrealized). Shows where the trader actually earns — and where they bleed.

The copy-tax — evidence

gross is the leader · net is you

Net edge · by timeframe

gross → net
negative after costs — do not copy
break-even: the trader needs > 10.5% gross ROI/market for the copier to break even
chance a trade nets +34%
net ROI/market (all)-2.9%
timeframemarkets gross ROINET ROI gross WRNET WR net PnL (wtd)
≤7d 16 -8.7% -17.4% 44% 44% -56.7%
≤30d 16 -8.7% -17.4% 44% 44% -56.7%
≤90d 21 -20.6% -28.1% 38% 33% -58.2%
all 35 +7.3% -2.9% 37% 34% +9.6%
<b>gross</b> = as the leader traded. <b>net</b> = what WE’d keep after slippage (we enter later, price moved). Net ROI ≤ 0 → copying loses even if the leader profits.

Slippage survival

net ROI/WR at slip
turnover2.0 tr/day
realistic slip~7%
edge survives to0%
copier slippageNET ROINET WRnet PnL (wtd)
5% ideal ← realistic here -2.9% 34% +9.6%
10% -12.2% 26% -0.9%
15% -20.7% 23% -10.5%
20% -28.4% 14% -19.3%
Realistic slippage grows with turnover and leader size. If net ROI turns negative before the realistic slip — it’s a <b>trap</b>: leader profits, you lose.

Edge quality

honest signals — luck vs skill
Profit concentration
top 85% · top 2 91% profit hinges on 1 bet — luck, not edge
Edge freshness (90d)
90d ROI -54% edge died — 90d negative
Fragile wins
8% wins margin < slip solid win margins
Flat-copyable
equal-wt +7% · $-wt +21% works when copied flat
Big bets
big-bet WR 33% (≥$1,108) big bets weaker
Persistence
early +33% → late -17% edge faded
Add-ons / DCA
4.4 add-ons/market averages down — deposit killer
Win / loss size
+$2,865 vs −$1,071 · ×2.67 wins bigger than losses
Profit factor
×1.58 per $1 lost it wins $1.58
Copy size
≥ $700 mirror leader trades ≥ this size to copy only main ideas

Supporting detail

145d coverage
Net worth$4,023
Realized+$13,698
Unrealized+$42
Win rate (resolved)37%
Wins / losses13 / 22
Whale WR (big bets)33%
Open positions8
Markets (closed)35 / 43
History coverage145d
Avg bet$1,646
Trades / day2.0
Drawdown65%
Kalshi-fit44%

Ledger

positions · history · trades
Positions 8 History 35 Trades
Open positions — marked to current price, like Polymarket
Marketoutcome entrynow investedvalue unrealized PnL
Will Japan win on 2026-06-21? Yes 64¢ 64¢ $1,200 $1,191 −$9 (-1%)
Will Germany win on 2026-06-20? Yes 64¢ 64¢ $1,000 $1,008 +$8 (+1%)
Will Argentina win on 2026-06-22? Yes 62¢ 62¢ $1,000 $992 −$8 (-1%)
Will Belgium win on 2026-06-21? Yes 68¢ 68¢ $250 $248 −$2 (-1%)
Will Croatia win on 2026-06-23? Yes 64¢ 64¢ $250 $248 −$2 (-1%)
Will Morocco win on 2026-06-19? Yes 57¢ 84¢ $131 $191 +$60 (+46%)
Will Saudi Arabia win on 2026-06-21? Yes 4¢ 4¢ $100 $97 −$3 (-3%)
Will Haiti win on 2026-06-19? Yes 4¢ 4¢ $50 $48 −$2 (-3%)
Top-25 open positions by current value. Prices in cents = market-implied probability (50¢ = 50%). Plus 3 resolved losing bets — already counted in realized PnL, so not shown here.
Closed markets — PnL by actual resolution, newest first
MarketwheninvestedPnLROI
Will United States win on 2026-06-19? Jun 19 $202 +$116 +57%
Will Mexico win on 2026-06-18? Jun 19 $1,016 +$808 +80%
Will Switzerland win on 2026-06-18? Jun 18 $1,413 +$498 +35%
Will Uruguay win on 2026-06-21? Jun 18 $505 −$17 -4%
Will Brazil win on 2026-06-24? Jun 18 $504 −$16 -3%
Will Netherlands win on 2026-06-25? Jun 18 $504 −$14 -3%
Will Czechia win on 2026-06-18? Jun 18 $201 −$198 -99%
Will Colombia win on 2026-06-17? Jun 18 $504 +$199 +40%
Will Portugal win on 2026-06-17? Jun 17 $504 −$500 -99%
Will England win on 2026-06-17? Jun 17 $506 −$22 -4%
Will Austria win on 2026-06-17? Jun 17 $504 +$98 +19%
Will Argentina win on 2026-06-16? Jun 17 $504 +$210 +42%
Exact Score: France 2 - 0 Senegal? Jun 17 $156 −$156 -100%
Will France win on 2026-06-16? Jun 16 $505 +$252 +50%
Will the Iranian regime fall before 2027? Jun 16 $19,678 −$14,984 -76%
Will the Iranian regime fall by June 30? Jun 16 $2,253 −$1,622 -72%
Will the Iranian regime fall by April 30? Apr 08 $1,259 −$1,046 -83%
Will the Iranian regime fall by March 31? Apr 02 $2,967 −$2,508 -84%
Will the Iranian regime fall by May 31? Apr 02 $573 −$573 -100%
Will Saudi Arabia strike Iran by March 31? Mar 28 $1,634 −$449 -28%
Will Croatia win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Mar 24 $1,108 +$26 +2%
Iran leadership change by March 13? Mar 18 $8 −$8 -100%
Will Israel launch a major ground offensive in Lebanon by March 31? Mar 15 $9,223 −$1,026 -11%
Will Iran close the Strait of Hormuz by March 31? Mar 14 $110 −$110 -100%
Will Spain win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Mar 09 $1,103 −$26 -2%
Will Mojtaba Khamenei be the next Supreme Leader of Iran? Mar 09 $750 −$62 -8%
Will Iran announce a new supreme leader on March 8, 2026? Mar 08 $200 +$25 +12%
Will the position of Supreme Leader of Iran be abolished? Mar 08 $100 −$87 -86%
Will there be no new Supreme Leader of Iran by June 30? Mar 08 $134 −$52 -39%
Will Alireza Arafi be the next Supreme Leader of Iran? Mar 08 $576 +$76 +13%
Khamenei out as Supreme Leader of Iran by June 30? Mar 01 $700 +$1,139 +163%
Khamenei out as Supreme Leader of Iran by March 31? Feb 28 $14,446 +$31,489 +218%
Khamenei out as Supreme Leader of Iran by February 28? Feb 28 $306 +$2,314 +757%
Will Girona FC win on 2026-01-26? Jan 31 $68 −$68 -100%
US strikes Iran by January 31, 2026? Jan 26 $104 −$28 -27%
Latest 50 closed markets. Resolution = Polymarket fact (redeemable/curPrice), not a timer.
Latest trades by this wallet
Marketsidepricesizewhen
Will Haiti win on 2026-06-19? BUY Yes 4¢ $51 1m
Will Morocco win on 2026-06-19? SELL Yes 83¢ $565 5m
Will Morocco win on 2026-06-19? BUY Yes 58¢ $326 1h
Will United States win on 2026-06-19? SELL Yes 97¢ $318 3h
Will Croatia win on 2026-06-23? BUY Yes 64¢ $253 15h
Will Belgium win on 2026-06-21? BUY Yes 68¢ $252 15h
Will Morocco win on 2026-06-19? BUY Yes 56¢ $203 15h
Will Saudi Arabia win on 2026-06-21? BUY Yes 4¢ $103 15h
Will United States win on 2026-06-19? BUY Yes 61¢ $202 15h
Will Japan win on 2026-06-21? BUY Yes 64¢ $1,213 20h
Will Mexico win on 2026-06-18? SELL Yes 88¢ $1,824 20h
Will Mexico win on 2026-06-18? BUY Yes 48¢ $1,016 24h
Will Switzerland win on 2026-06-18? BUY Yes 63¢ $908 29h
Will Argentina win on 2026-06-22? BUY Yes 62¢ $1,011 29h
Will Germany win on 2026-06-20? BUY Yes 64¢ $1,011 29h
Will Switzerland win on 2026-06-18? SELL Yes 62¢ $486 29h
Will Germany win on 2026-06-20? SELL Yes 63¢ $487 29h
Will Japan win on 2026-06-21? SELL Yes 63¢ $479 29h
Will Argentina win on 2026-06-22? SELL Yes 61¢ $13 29h
Will Uruguay win on 2026-06-21? SELL Yes 66¢ $488 29h
Will Brazil win on 2026-06-24? SELL Yes 69¢ $488 29h
Will Netherlands win on 2026-06-25? SELL Yes 74¢ $489 29h
Will Czechia win on 2026-06-18? BUY Yes 52¢ $201 43h
Will Switzerland win on 2026-06-18? BUY Yes 63¢ $506 43h
Will Colombia win on 2026-06-17? SELL Yes 100¢ $703 43h
Will Argentina win on 2026-06-22? BUY Yes 63¢ $14 2d
Will Brazil win on 2026-06-24? BUY Yes 70¢ $504 2d
Will Netherlands win on 2026-06-25? BUY Yes 75¢ $504 2d
Will Uruguay win on 2026-06-21? BUY Yes 67¢ $505 2d
Will Japan win on 2026-06-21? BUY Yes 65¢ $505 2d
From the wallet’s activity history (Polymarket /activity), latest 30.
✓ Calibrated vs Polymarket: our portfolio calc $4,022.87 · official $4,022.87 (match) · 315 history records