Wallet analysis

2026-06-17T19:44:14+00:00

trader profile + honest PnL by actual resolution and NET edge after slippage — worth copying?

0.0
score
84 0x84ce…a5bc sports 31 markets active 6d ago coverage 623d
TRAPdo not copy sports specialistFresh edge
✗ negative after realistic slippage✗ 90-day edge negative — edge has died! concentrated profit (few bets)
Total PnL −$4,709 (-73%) realized −$4,709 · open +$0
Copy trade Watchlist View on Polymarket ↗
Gross ROI / mkt +2% what the leader earns
→−copy tax
Net edge / mkt -8% what you keep after slip
Net edge-8%after slip
Net WR26%break-even
Win rate45%14W / 17L
Drawdown100%max
Avg bet$207per market
Trades / day0.3pace
Fees−$8est.
Kalshi-fit68%portable
Net worth$0now

Equity curve

realized PnL
1W 1M 3M YTD 1Y All
2 days$0
7 days+$52
14 days+$91
30 days−$1,038
Cards show realized PnL over calendar windows (by resolution date). The “Total PnL” chart appears for wallets we track daily.

Categories

share · PnL
world 59% −$3,636
other 27% −$1,153
sports 14% +$77
politics 0% −$7
Share of volume and PnL by niche (realized + unrealized). Shows where the trader actually earns — and where they bleed.

The copy-tax — evidence

gross is the leader · net is you

Net edge · by timeframe

gross → net
negative after costs — do not copy
break-even: the trader needs > 10.5% gross ROI/market for the copier to break even
chance a trade nets +26%
net ROI/market (all)-7.7%
timeframemarkets gross ROINET ROI gross WRNET WR net PnL (wtd)
≤7d 1 +19.9% +8.5% 100% 100% +8.5%
≤30d 21 +6.4% -3.7% 57% 29% -51.2%
≤90d 21 +6.4% -3.7% 57% 29% -51.2%
all 31 +2.1% -7.7% 45% 26% -76.0%
<b>gross</b> = as the leader traded. <b>net</b> = what WE’d keep after slippage (we enter later, price moved). Net ROI ≤ 0 → copying loses even if the leader profits.

Slippage survival

net ROI/WR at slip
turnover0.3 tr/day
realistic slip~5%
edge survives to0%
copier slippageNET ROINET WRnet PnL (wtd)
5% ideal ← realistic here -7.7% 26% -76.0%
10% -16.5% 13% -78.3%
15% -24.6% 13% -80.4%
20% -32.0% 13% -82.3%
Realistic slippage grows with turnover and leader size. If net ROI turns negative before the realistic slip — it’s a <b>trap</b>: leader profits, you lose.

Edge quality

honest signals — luck vs skill
Profit concentration
top 34% · top 2 52% concentrated in a few bets
Edge freshness (90d)
90d ROI -46% edge died — 90d negative
Fragile wins
43% wins margin < slip thin win margins
Flat-copyable
equal-wt +2% · $-wt -74% works when copied flat
Big bets
big-bet WR —% no data
Persistence
early -4% → late +8% mixed
Add-ons / DCA
5.0 add-ons/market averages down — deposit killer
Win / loss size
+$23 vs −$297 · ×0.08 wins small, loses big
Profit factor
×0.06 loses more than it wins
Copy size
≥ $50 mirror leader trades ≥ this size to copy only main ideas

Supporting detail

623d coverage
Net worth$0
Realized−$4,709
Unrealized+$0
Win rate (resolved)45%
Wins / losses14 / 17
Est. fees paid−$8
Open positions0
Markets (closed)31 / 31
History coverage623d
Avg bet$207
Trades / day0.3
Drawdown100%
Kalshi-fit68%

Ledger

positions · history · trades
Positions 0 History 31 Trades
no open positions (2 resolved losses — in realized PnL)
Closed markets — PnL by actual resolution, newest first
MarketwheninvestedPnLROI
Counter-Strike: Natus Vincere vs Spirit (BO3) - IEM Cologne Major Stag Jun 11 $264 +$52 +20%
Will Hungary win on 2026-06-09? Jun 09 $12 +$21 +165%
HSBC Championships: Katie Boulter vs Leylah Fernandez Jun 09 $27 +$58 +220%
Stuttgart Open: Quentin Halys vs Sho Shimabukuro Jun 09 $25 −$25 -98%
HSBC Championships: Qinwen Zheng vs Jaqueline Cristian Jun 08 $15 −$15 -99%
Brazil vs. Panama: O/U 5.5 May 31 $111 +$5 +4%
Brazil leading at halftime? May 31 $195 +$26 +13%
O'Higgins FC vs. Everton de Viña del Mar: O/U 0.5 May 31 $29 $0 +1%
United States vs. Senegal: O/U 5.5 May 31 $243 −$48 -20%
Trump ends Ukraine war before inauguration? May 31 $1,119 −$1,119 -100%
United States vs. Senegal: O/U 2.5 May 31 $21 +$5 +22%
United States vs. Senegal: O/U 4.5 May 31 $48 +$2 +4%
SE Palmeiras vs. Associação Chapecoense de Futebol: Draw at halftime? May 31 $21 $0 +2%
CA Mineiro leading at halftime? May 31 $21 $0 -0%
CR Vasco da Gama vs. CA Mineiro: O/U 0.5 May 31 $21 $0 +0%
CD Castellón leading at halftime? May 31 $21 $0 -0%
Roland Garros ATP: Rafael Jodar vs Pablo Carreno Busta May 31 $16 $0 -3%
Japan vs. Iceland: Draw at halftime? May 31 $21 $0 -0%
Roland Garros WTA: Sorana Cirstea vs Xiyu Wang May 31 $4 +$1 +17%
Will Santos FC win on 2026-05-30? May 31 $11 $0 +1%
Los Angeles Sparks vs. Connecticut Sun May 31 $5 −$1 -11%
Russia x Ukraine Ceasefire in 2024? Dec 31 $2,074 −$1,921 -93%
Will Slavia Praha beat Ajax? Dec 05 $100 −$100 -100%
Will Trump tweet 40 or more times September 27-October 4? Dec 05 $7 −$7 -100%
Will Elon tweet 275-299 times? Dec 05 $110 −$110 -100%
Will the HBO documentary identify Len Sassaman as Satoshi? Dec 05 $739 −$739 -100%
Will Russia capture Toretsk before October? Dec 05 $594 −$594 -100%
Will Satoshi Nakamoto's identity be proven in Q4 2024? Nov 22 $400 −$360 -90%
Will Elon tweet 300 or more times? Oct 04 $133 +$109 +82%
Will Real Madrid vs. Atletico Madrid end in a draw? Sep 30 $8 +$42 +567%
Ukraine election scheduled in 2024? Sep 27 $5 −$2 -37%
Latest 50 closed markets. Resolution = Polymarket fact (redeemable/curPrice), not a timer.
Latest trades by this wallet
Marketsidepricesizewhen
Counter-Strike: Natus Vincere vs Spirit (BO3) - IEM Cologne Major Stag BUY Spirit 83¢ $264 6d
Will Hungary win on 2026-06-09? BUY Yes 37¢ $12 8d
HSBC Championships: Katie Boulter vs Leylah Fernandez BUY Katie Boulter 29¢ $11 8d
Stuttgart Open: Quentin Halys vs Sho Shimabukuro BUY Quentin Halys 37¢ $25 8d
HSBC Championships: Katie Boulter vs Leylah Fernandez BUY Katie Boulter 32¢ $15 9d
HSBC Championships: Qinwen Zheng vs Jaqueline Cristian BUY Qinwen Zheng 53¢ $5 9d
HSBC Championships: Qinwen Zheng vs Jaqueline Cristian BUY Qinwen Zheng 52¢ $5 9d
HSBC Championships: Qinwen Zheng vs Jaqueline Cristian BUY Qinwen Zheng 52¢ $3 9d
HSBC Championships: Qinwen Zheng vs Jaqueline Cristian BUY Qinwen Zheng 51¢ $3 9d
Brazil vs. Panama: O/U 5.5 SELL Over 99¢ $116 16d
Brazil vs. Panama: O/U 5.5 BUY Over 95¢ $111 16d
Brazil leading at halftime? SELL Yes 99¢ $221 16d
Brazil leading at halftime? BUY Yes 87¢ $195 16d
O'Higgins FC vs. Everton de Viña del Mar: O/U 0.5 SELL Over 99¢ $29 16d
O'Higgins FC vs. Everton de Viña del Mar: O/U 0.5 BUY Over 98¢ $29 16d
United States vs. Senegal: O/U 5.5 SELL Over 59¢ $10 16d
United States vs. Senegal: O/U 5.5 SELL Over 57¢ $185 16d
United States vs. Senegal: O/U 5.5 BUY Over 69¢ $243 16d
United States vs. Senegal: O/U 2.5 SELL Over 100¢ $0 16d
United States vs. Senegal: O/U 4.5 SELL Over 99¢ $49 16d
United States vs. Senegal: O/U 4.5 BUY Over 95¢ $48 16d
SE Palmeiras vs. Associação Chapecoense de Futebol: Draw at halftime? SELL Yes 100¢ $0 16d
United States vs. Senegal: O/U 2.5 SELL Over 99¢ $26 16d
United States vs. Senegal: O/U 2.5 BUY Over 81¢ $21 16d
SE Palmeiras vs. Associação Chapecoense de Futebol: Draw at halftime? SELL Yes 99¢ $21 16d
SE Palmeiras vs. Associação Chapecoense de Futebol: Draw at halftime? BUY Yes 97¢ $21 16d
CA Mineiro leading at halftime? SELL Yes 99¢ $21 16d
CA Mineiro leading at halftime? BUY Yes 99¢ $21 16d
CR Vasco da Gama vs. CA Mineiro: O/U 0.5 SELL Over 99¢ $21 17d
CR Vasco da Gama vs. CA Mineiro: O/U 0.5 BUY Over 99¢ $21 17d
From the wallet’s activity history (Polymarket /activity), latest 30.
✓ Calibrated vs Polymarket: our portfolio calc $0.00 · official $0.00 (match) · 192 history records