Wallet analysis

2026-06-17T06:30:36+00:00

trader profile + honest PnL by actual resolution and NET edge after slippage — worth copying?

0.0
score
84 0x84c9…8397 crypto 363 markets active 15h ago coverage 55d
TRAPdo not copy crypto specialist⚠ High turnover
✗ negative after realistic slippage✗ 90-day edge negative — edge has died! high turnover
Total PnL −$463 (-10%) realized −$463 · open +$0
Copy trade Watchlist View on Polymarket ↗
Gross ROI / mkt -6% what the leader earns
→−copy tax
Net edge / mkt -21% what you keep after slip
Net edge-21%after slip
Net WR53%break-even
Win rate57%206W / 157L
Drawdown100%max
Avg bet$13per market
Trades / day18.1pace
Kalshi-fit100%portable
Net worth$0now

Equity curve

realized PnL
1W 1M 3M YTD 1Y All
2 days+$26
7 days−$26
14 days−$102
30 days−$227
Cards show realized PnL over calendar windows (by resolution date). The “Total PnL” chart appears for wallets we track daily.

Categories

share · PnL
crypto 100% −$525
Share of volume and PnL by niche (realized + unrealized). Shows where the trader actually earns — and where they bleed.

The copy-tax — evidence

gross is the leader · net is you

Net edge · by timeframe

gross → net
negative after costs — do not copy
break-even: the trader needs > 10.5% gross ROI/market for the copier to break even
chance a trade nets +53%
net ROI/market (all)-14.7%
timeframemarkets gross ROINET ROI gross WRNET WR net PnL (wtd)
≤7d 33 +1.5% -8.2% 64% 55% -16.9%
≤30d 215 -4.4% -13.5% 53% 51% -23.0%
≤90d 363 -5.7% -14.7% 57% 53% -19.7%
all 363 -5.7% -14.7% 57% 53% -19.7%
<b>gross</b> = as the leader traded. <b>net</b> = what WE’d keep after slippage (we enter later, price moved). Net ROI ≤ 0 → copying loses even if the leader profits.

Slippage survival

net ROI/WR at slip
turnover18.1 tr/day
realistic slip~9%
edge survives to0%
copier slippageNET ROINET WRnet PnL (wtd)
5% ideal ← realistic here -14.7% 53% -19.7%
10% -22.8% 48% -27.4%
15% -30.3% 39% -34.4%
20% -37.1% 31% -40.9%
Realistic slippage grows with turnover and leader size. If net ROI turns negative before the realistic slip — it’s a <b>trap</b>: leader profits, you lose.

Edge quality

honest signals — luck vs skill
Profit concentration
top 6% · top 2 8% broad-based profit
Edge freshness (90d)
90d ROI -11% edge died — 90d negative
Fragile wins
7% wins margin < slip solid win margins
Flat-copyable
equal-wt -6% · $-wt -11% works when copied flat
Big bets
big-bet WR —% no data
Persistence
early -8% → late -3% mixed
Add-ons / DCA
1.9 add-ons/market adds to positions
Win / loss size
+$6 vs −$12 · ×0.55 wins small, loses big
Profit factor
×0.72 loses more than it wins
Copy size
≥ $50 mirror leader trades ≥ this size to copy only main ideas

Supporting detail

55d coverage
Net worth$0
Realized−$463
Unrealized+$0
Win rate (resolved)57%
Wins / losses206 / 157
Open positions0
Markets (closed)363 / 363
History coverage55d
Avg bet$13
Trades / day18.1
Drawdown100%
Kalshi-fit100%

Ledger

positions · history · trades
Positions 0 History 363 Trades
no open positions (138 resolved losses — in realized PnL)
Closed markets — PnL by actual resolution, newest first
MarketwheninvestedPnLROI
Ethereum Up or Down - June 16, 11:15AM-11:20AM ET Jun 16 $8 +$7 +88%
Ethereum Up or Down - June 16, 11:10AM-11:15AM ET Jun 16 $4 −$4 -96%
Ethereum Up or Down - June 16, 11:00AM-11:05AM ET Jun 16 $5 +$2 +35%
Ethereum Up or Down - June 16, 10:35AM-10:40AM ET Jun 16 $3 $0 +6%
Ethereum Up or Down - June 16, 10:30AM-10:35AM ET Jun 16 $4 +$2 +60%
Ethereum Up or Down - June 16, 10:25AM-10:30AM ET Jun 16 $4 +$3 +70%
Ethereum Up or Down - June 16, 10:05AM-10:10AM ET Jun 16 $4 +$4 +88%
Ethereum Up or Down - June 16, 6:45AM-6:50AM ET Jun 16 $4 +$1 +30%
Ethereum Up or Down - June 16, 6:40AM-6:45AM ET Jun 16 $4 +$1 +31%
Ethereum Up or Down - June 15, 10:00AM-10:05AM ET Jun 15 $11 +$9 +80%
Ethereum Up or Down - June 15, 9:55AM-10:00AM ET Jun 15 $4 −$4 -100%
Ethereum Up or Down - June 15, 9:45AM-9:50AM ET Jun 15 $10 +$1 +7%
Ethereum Up or Down - June 15, 9:30AM-9:35AM ET Jun 15 $4 +$4 +104%
Ethereum Up or Down - June 14, 10:50AM-10:55AM ET Jun 14 $4 +$2 +56%
Ethereum Up or Down - June 14, 9:50AM-9:55AM ET Jun 14 $13 +$6 +50%
Ethereum Up or Down - June 14, 9:45AM-9:50AM ET Jun 14 $10 +$1 +9%
Ethereum Up or Down - June 14, 9:30AM-9:35AM ET Jun 14 $32 +$23 +71%
Ethereum Up or Down - June 14, 9:25AM-9:30AM ET Jun 14 $16 −$16 -100%
Ethereum Up or Down - June 14, 9:20AM-9:25AM ET Jun 14 $17 +$6 +36%
Ethereum Up or Down - June 14, 9:10AM-9:15AM ET Jun 14 $13 +$13 +100%
Ethereum Up or Down - June 14, 8:45AM-8:50AM ET Jun 14 $20 −$20 -99%
Ethereum Up or Down - June 14, 8:40AM-8:45AM ET Jun 14 $9 −$9 -100%
Ethereum Up or Down - June 14, 8:35AM-8:40AM ET Jun 14 $4 −$4 -100%
Ethereum Up or Down - June 10, 9:05AM-9:10AM ET Jun 14 $5 +$1 +26%
Ethereum Up or Down - June 14, 6:35AM-6:40AM ET Jun 14 $4 +$5 +110%
Ethereum Up or Down - June 10, 9:35AM-9:40AM ET Jun 10 $28 −$28 -100%
Ethereum Up or Down - June 10, 9:30AM-9:35AM ET Jun 10 $9 −$9 -100%
Ethereum Up or Down - June 10, 9:20AM-9:25AM ET Jun 10 $4 −$4 -100%
Ethereum Up or Down - June 10, 9:15AM-9:20AM ET Jun 10 $6 +$2 +29%
Ethereum Up or Down - June 10, 5:20AM-5:25AM ET Jun 10 $21 −$20 -96%
Ethereum Up or Down - June 10, 5:10AM-5:15AM ET Jun 10 $21 −$2 -11%
Ethereum Up or Down - June 10, 5:05AM-5:10AM ET Jun 10 $13 +$11 +84%
Ethereum Up or Down - June 10, 5:00AM-5:05AM ET Jun 10 $10 −$10 -98%
Ethereum Up or Down - June 8, 8:30AM-8:35AM ET Jun 08 $27 −$27 -100%
Ethereum Up or Down - June 8, 8:25AM-8:30AM ET Jun 08 $16 −$15 -97%
Ethereum Up or Down - June 8, 8:20AM-8:25AM ET Jun 08 $7 −$7 -100%
Ethereum Up or Down - June 8, 7:50AM-7:55AM ET Jun 08 $31 −$31 -100%
Ethereum Up or Down - June 8, 7:45AM-7:50AM ET Jun 08 $18 −$18 -100%
Ethereum Up or Down - June 8, 7:35AM-7:40AM ET Jun 08 $7 −$7 -100%
Ethereum Up or Down - June 8, 7:30AM-7:35AM ET Jun 08 $29 +$29 +100%
Ethereum Up or Down - June 8, 7:15AM-7:20AM ET Jun 08 $28 −$28 -100%
Ethereum Up or Down - June 8, 7:10AM-7:15AM ET Jun 08 $14 −$14 -100%
Ethereum Up or Down - June 8, 7:05AM-7:10AM ET Jun 08 $8 −$8 -100%
Ethereum Up or Down - June 8, 6:40AM-6:45AM ET Jun 08 $8 +$3 +32%
Ethereum Up or Down - June 8, 6:20AM-6:25AM ET Jun 08 $12 +$6 +49%
Ethereum Up or Down - June 8, 6:15AM-6:20AM ET Jun 08 $8 −$7 -83%
Ethereum Up or Down - June 8, 6:10AM-6:15AM ET Jun 08 $2 +$1 +26%
Ethereum Up or Down - June 8, 6:00AM-6:05AM ET Jun 08 $12 +$9 +79%
Ethereum Up or Down - June 8, 5:55AM-6:00AM ET Jun 08 $8 −$8 -100%
Ethereum Up or Down - June 8, 4:35AM-4:40AM ET Jun 08 $5 +$5 +93%
Latest 50 closed markets. Resolution = Polymarket fact (redeemable/curPrice), not a timer.
Latest trades by this wallet
Marketsidepricesizewhen
Ethereum Up or Down - June 16, 11:15AM-11:20AM ET SELL Down 80¢ $16 15h
Ethereum Up or Down - June 16, 11:15AM-11:20AM ET BUY Down 42¢ $3 15h
Ethereum Up or Down - June 16, 11:15AM-11:20AM ET BUY Down 42¢ $1 15h
Ethereum Up or Down - June 16, 11:15AM-11:20AM ET BUY Down 42¢ $2 15h
Ethereum Up or Down - June 16, 11:15AM-11:20AM ET BUY Down 42¢ $2 15h
Ethereum Up or Down - June 16, 11:15AM-11:20AM ET BUY Down 42¢ $0 15h
Ethereum Up or Down - June 16, 11:10AM-11:15AM ET BUY Down 38¢ $4 15h
Ethereum Up or Down - June 16, 11:00AM-11:05AM ET SELL Up 54¢ $6 15h
Ethereum Up or Down - June 16, 11:00AM-11:05AM ET BUY Up 40¢ $3 15h
Ethereum Up or Down - June 16, 11:00AM-11:05AM ET BUY Up 40¢ $2 15h
Ethereum Up or Down - June 16, 10:35AM-10:40AM ET SELL Up 56¢ $1 15h
Ethereum Up or Down - June 16, 10:35AM-10:40AM ET SELL Up 56¢ $2 15h
Ethereum Up or Down - June 16, 10:30AM-10:35AM ET SELL Up 67¢ $7 15h
Ethereum Up or Down - June 16, 10:35AM-10:40AM ET BUY Up 51¢ $3 15h
Ethereum Up or Down - June 16, 10:30AM-10:35AM ET BUY Up 42¢ $4 15h
Ethereum Up or Down - June 16, 10:25AM-10:30AM ET SELL Down 63¢ $6 16h
Ethereum Up or Down - June 16, 10:25AM-10:30AM ET BUY Down 37¢ $2 16h
Ethereum Up or Down - June 16, 10:25AM-10:30AM ET BUY Down 37¢ $2 16h
Ethereum Up or Down - June 16, 10:05AM-10:10AM ET SELL Down 77¢ $8 16h
Ethereum Up or Down - June 16, 10:05AM-10:10AM ET BUY Down 41¢ $1 16h
Ethereum Up or Down - June 16, 10:05AM-10:10AM ET BUY Down 41¢ $2 16h
Ethereum Up or Down - June 16, 10:05AM-10:10AM ET BUY Down 41¢ $0 16h
Ethereum Up or Down - June 16, 10:05AM-10:10AM ET BUY Down 41¢ $1 16h
Ethereum Up or Down - June 16, 6:45AM-6:50AM ET SELL Up 56¢ $6 19h
Ethereum Up or Down - June 16, 6:45AM-6:50AM ET BUY Up 43¢ $4 19h
Ethereum Up or Down - June 16, 6:40AM-6:45AM ET SELL Up 55¢ $5 19h
Ethereum Up or Down - June 16, 6:40AM-6:45AM ET BUY Up 42¢ $2 19h
Ethereum Up or Down - June 16, 6:40AM-6:45AM ET BUY Up 42¢ $2 19h
Ethereum Up or Down - June 15, 10:00AM-10:05AM ET SELL Down 95¢ $11 40h
Ethereum Up or Down - June 15, 10:00AM-10:05AM ET SELL Down 95¢ $8 40h
From the wallet’s activity history (Polymarket /activity), latest 30.
✓ Calibrated vs Polymarket: our portfolio calc $0.00 · official $0.00 (match) · 1030 history records