Wallet analysis

2026-06-29T10:11:26+00:00

trader profile + honest PnL by actual resolution and NET edge after slippage — worth copying?

0.0
score
84 0x84c6…c8c8 world 63 markets active 268d ago coverage 300d
TRAPdo not copy Fading edge
✗ negative after realistic slippage
Total PnL −$18,854 (-4%) realized −$18,854 · open +$0
Gross ROI / mkt +3% what the leader earns
−copy tax
Net edge / mkt -19% what you keep after slip
Net edge-19%after slip
Net WR44%break-even
Win rate63%40W / 23L
Whale WR75%big bets
Drawdown100%max
Avg bet$7,723per market
Trades / day4.1pace
Kalshi-fit76%portable
Net worth$0now

Equity curve

realized PnL
1W 1M 3M YTD 1Y All
2 days$0
7 days$0
14 days$0
30 days$0
Cards show realized PnL over calendar windows (by resolution date). The “Total PnL” chart appears for wallets we track daily.

Categories

share · PnL
world 41% +$33,463
tech 20% +$9,683
politics 16% −$51,605
other 15% −$12,397
crypto 8% +$4,984
culture 1% −$3,132
sports 0% +$140
Share of volume and PnL by niche (realized + unrealized). Shows where the trader actually earns — and where they bleed.

The copy-tax — evidence

gross is the leader · net is you

Net edge · by timeframe

gross → net
negative after costs — do not copy
break-even: the trader needs > 10.5% gross ROI/market for the copier to break even
chance a trade nets +44%
net ROI/market (all)-6.7%
timeframemarkets gross ROINET ROI gross WRNET WR net PnL (wtd)
≤7d no closed markets
≤30d no closed markets
≤90d no closed markets
all 63 +3.1% -6.7% 63% 44% -13.0%
<b>gross</b> = as the leader traded. <b>net</b> = what WE’d keep after slippage (we enter later, price moved). Net ROI ≤ 0 → copying loses even if the leader profits.

Slippage survival

net ROI/WR at slip
turnover4.1 tr/day
realistic slip~12%
edge survives to0%
copier slippageNET ROINET WRnet PnL (wtd)
5% ideal -6.7% 44% -13.0%
10% ← realistic here -15.6% 24% -21.4%
15% -23.8% 21% -29.0%
20% -31.2% 17% -35.9%
Realistic slippage grows with turnover and leader size. If net ROI turns negative before the realistic slip — it’s a <b>trap</b>: leader profits, you lose.

Edge quality

honest signals — luck vs skill
Profit concentration
top 18% · top 2 31% broad-based profit
Edge freshness (90d)
90d ROI — too few recent
Fragile wins
30% wins margin < slip solid win margins
Flat-copyable
equal-wt +3% · $-wt -4% works when copied flat
Big bets
big-bet WR 75% (≥$9,329) strong on big bets
Persistence
early +10% → late -4% edge faded
Add-ons / DCA
17.6 add-ons/market averages down — deposit killer
Win / loss size
+$3,062 vs −$6,146 · ×0.5 wins small, loses big
Profit factor
×0.87 loses more than it wins
Copy size
≥ $700 mirror leader trades ≥ this size to copy only main ideas

Supporting detail

300d coverage
Net worth$0
Realized−$18,854
Unrealized+$0
Win rate (resolved)63%
Wins / losses40 / 23
Whale WR (big bets)75%
Open positions0
Markets (closed)63 / 63
History coverage300d
Avg bet$7,723
Trades / day4.1
Drawdown100%
Kalshi-fit76%

Ledger

positions · history · trades
Positions 0 History 63 Trades
no open positions (9 resolved losses — in realized PnL)
Closed markets — PnL by actual resolution, newest first
MarketwheninvestedPnLROI
Israel withdraws from Syria in 2025? Feb 02 $771 +$136 +18%
Ahmed al-Sharaa out as leader of Syria in 2025? Feb 02 $796 +$119 +15%
Syria strikes Israel by December 31? Feb 02 $2,126 +$236 +11%
Israel x Turkey military clash in 2025? Feb 02 $2,848 +$414 +14%
Will Israeli troops enter Suwayda in 2025? Feb 02 $4,843 +$788 +16%
Israel and Syria normalize relations by December 31, 2025? Feb 02 $8,044 +$1,464 +18%
Will Donald Trump visit Israel in 2025? Oct 22 $214 +$142 +67%
Israel strikes Iran by October 31? Oct 04 $4,474 −$4,473 -100%
Will Israel strike Syria by September 15? Sep 22 $22,910 +$501 +2%
Israel military action against Qatar in 2025? Sep 09 $4,813 −$4,813 -100%
Greta Thunberg arrested by September 30? Sep 08 $152 −$152 -100%
Another Houthi strike on Israel by September 15? Sep 07 $2,056 +$4,696 +228%
Will Israel carry out an airstrike on the West Bank by September 30? Sep 05 $394 −$394 -100%
Will Donald Trump win Nobel Peace Prize in 2025? Sep 03 $3,132 −$3,132 -100%
Houthi strike on Israel by August 31? Aug 24 $3,684 +$15,868 +431%
Will a new country join the Abraham Accords in 2025? Aug 24 $3,897 −$3,897 -100%
Will Azerbaijan join the Abraham Accords in 2025? Aug 13 $327 −$327 -100%
Israel strikes Syria by August 31? Aug 09 $287 +$845 +295%
Will Elon Musk buy TikTok before July? Aug 06 $1,657 +$384 +23%
Will Mark Carney be the next Canadian Prime Minister? May 01 $804 −$804 -100%
TikTok sale announced before May? May 01 $2,994 −$2,994 -100%
Will Pierre Poilievre be the next Canadian Prime Minister? May 01 $5,853 −$5,853 -100%
Trump ends Ukraine war in first 90 days? May 01 $10,850 −$10,850 -100%
Will Putin meet with Trump in first 100 days? May 01 $19,663 −$19,663 -100%
Will Trump end Department of Education in first 100 days? May 01 $990 +$112 +11%
Trump positive favorability on April 1? Apr 03 $7,080 −$7,080 -100%
Will Russia abandon Syrian naval base before April? Apr 03 $14,846 +$10,393 +70%
Israel withdraws from Lebanon before March? Mar 04 $25,237 −$25,234 -100%
Will Trump pardon Julian Assange in his first 100 days? Feb 26 $1,265 +$362 +29%
TikTok on App Store again before March? Feb 14 $6,605 +$8,947 +136%
Will ICC withdraw its arrest warrant against Netanyahu before July? Feb 13 $4,374 −$4,374 -100%
Israel x Hamas ceasefire cancelled by Saturday? Feb 11 $1,963 −$45 -2%
Google Maps renames it "Gulf of America" before March? Feb 10 $26,230 +$1,845 +7%
Israel withdraws from Gaza in 2025? Feb 05 $1,238 −$1,174 -95%
Russia x Ukraine ceasefire in 2025? Feb 02 $4,560 −$4,560 -100%
Will Neymar leave Al-Hilal? Jan 27 $2,921 +$1,611 +55%
TikTok banned in the US before May 2025? Jan 22 $60,731 +$1,501 +2%
Will Donald Trump issue 75-99 executive orders in his first week? Jan 21 $2 $0 +13%
Trump cryptocurrency executive order on Day 1? Jan 20 $3,803 +$225 +6%
Israel announces ceasefire by Sunday? Jan 20 $9,329 +$683 +7%
Will Bitcoin reach $120,000 by January 31, 2025? Jan 19 $17,379 +$404 +2%
Israel x Hamas ceasefire by January 31? Jan 18 $35,651 +$21,701 +61%
Will Benjamin Netanyahu attend presidential inauguration? Jan 17 $30 +$3 +12%
Israel announces ceasefire by January 17? Jan 17 $7,094 +$968 +14%
Israel announces ceasefire by January 16? Jan 17 $3,605 +$15,156 +420%
Will Bitcoin dip to $85,000 by January 31, 2025? Jan 13 $6,444 +$181 +3%
Yoon arrested by January 31? Jan 13 $1,894 +$189 +10%
Will Trudeau resign Today? Jan 06 $3,961 +$4,035 +102%
Trudeau resigns before February? Jan 06 $12,887 +$808 +6%
Yoon out as president of South Korea in 2024? Jan 06 $23,545 −$23,545 -100%
Latest 50 closed markets. Resolution = Polymarket fact (redeemable/curPrice), not a timer.
Latest trades by this wallet
Marketsidepricesizewhen
Israel strikes Iran by October 31? BUY Yes 15¢ $1,098 267d
Israel strikes Iran by October 31? BUY Yes 16¢ $57 268d
Israel strikes Iran by October 31? BUY Yes 16¢ $0 268d
Israel strikes Iran by October 31? BUY Yes 16¢ $0 268d
Israel strikes Iran by October 31? BUY Yes 16¢ $0 268d
Israel strikes Iran by October 31? BUY Yes 16¢ $0 268d
Israel strikes Iran by October 31? BUY Yes 16¢ $0 268d
Israel strikes Iran by October 31? BUY Yes 16¢ $0 268d
Israel strikes Iran by October 31? BUY Yes 16¢ $0 268d
Israel strikes Iran by October 31? BUY Yes 16¢ $0 268d
Israel strikes Iran by October 31? BUY Yes 16¢ $46 268d
Israel strikes Iran by October 31? BUY Yes 16¢ $5 268d
Israel strikes Iran by October 31? BUY Yes 16¢ $2 268d
Israel strikes Iran by October 31? BUY Yes 16¢ $8 268d
Israel strikes Iran by October 31? BUY Yes 16¢ $28 268d
Israel strikes Iran by October 31? BUY Yes 16¢ $59 268d
Israel strikes Iran by October 31? BUY Yes 16¢ $0 268d
Israel strikes Iran by October 31? BUY Yes 16¢ $0 268d
Israel strikes Iran by October 31? BUY Yes 16¢ $1 268d
Israel strikes Iran by October 31? BUY Yes 16¢ $19 268d
Israel strikes Iran by October 31? BUY Yes 16¢ $19 268d
Israel strikes Iran by October 31? BUY Yes 16¢ $19 268d
Israel strikes Iran by October 31? BUY Yes 16¢ $1 268d
Israel strikes Iran by October 31? BUY Yes 16¢ $152 268d
Israel strikes Iran by October 31? BUY Yes 16¢ $598 271d
Israel strikes Iran by October 31? BUY Yes 17¢ $148 273d
Israel strikes Iran by October 31? BUY Yes 17¢ $401 273d
Israel strikes Iran by October 31? BUY Yes 18¢ $478 275d
Israel strikes Iran by October 31? BUY Yes 19¢ $517 277d
Israel strikes Iran by October 31? BUY Yes 19¢ $281 277d
From the wallet’s activity history (Polymarket /activity), latest 30.
Calibrated vs Polymarket: our portfolio calc $0.00 · official $0.00 (match) · 1369 history records