Wallet analysis

2026-06-14T17:09:51+00:00

trader profile + honest PnL by actual resolution and NET edge after slippage — worth copying?

84
0x84c3…6efe
other · 305 markets active 2h ago
0.0score
−$2,586 -2%
TOTAL PnL · realized +$1,298 · open +$3,809
avoidriskycopy
✗ TRAP ⚠ High turnover
Copy trade Watchlist View on Polymarket ↗
Net worth$9,632
Realized+$1,298
Unrealized+$3,809
Win rate (resolved)22%
Wins / losses67 / 236
Whale WR (big bets)30%
Est. fees paid−$4
Open positions2
Markets (closed)303 / 305
History coverage176d
Avg bet$463
Trades / day12.9
Drawdown100%
Kalshi-fit66%
Chart Positions 2 History 303 Categories Trades Net edge Slippage
1W 1M 3M YTD 1Y All
2 days+$397
7 days−$46
14 days−$3
30 days−$970
Cards show realized PnL over calendar windows (by resolution date). The “Total PnL” chart appears for wallets we track daily.
Open positions — marked to current price, like Polymarket
Marketoutcome entrynow investedvalue unrealized PnL
US x Iran permanent peace deal by June 15, 2026? Yes 12¢ 21¢ $5,519 $9,445 +$3,925 (+71%)
Will Russia capture Lyman by June 30, 2026? Yes 9¢ 6¢ $304 $188 −$116 (-38%)
Will Donald Trump post 180-199 Truth Social posts from May 15 to May 22, 2026? Yes 6¢ 0¢ $5 $0 −$5 (-100%)
Will Donald Trump post 120-139 Truth Social posts from May 19 to May 26, 2026? Yes 8¢ 0¢ $15 $0 −$15 (-100%)
Will Donald Trump post 120-139 Truth Social posts from May 15 to May 22, 2026? Yes 6¢ 0¢ $13 $0 −$13 (-100%)
Will Donald Trump post 140-159 Truth Social posts from May 29 to June 5, 2026? Yes 20¢ 0¢ $6 $0 −$6 (-100%)
Will Donald Trump post 200+ Truth Social posts from May 15 to May 22, 2026? No 38¢ 0¢ $235 $0 −$235 (-100%)
Will Donald Trump post 100-119 Truth Social posts from May 19 to May 26, 2026? Yes 4¢ 0¢ $3 $0 −$3 (-100%)
Will Donald Trump post 160-179 Truth Social posts from May 12 to May 19, 2026? Yes 1¢ 0¢ $3 $0 −$3 (-100%)
Will Donald Trump post 60-79 Truth Social posts from May 26 to June 2, 2026? Yes 5¢ 0¢ $31 $0 −$31 (-100%)
Will Donald Trump post 160-179 Truth Social posts from May 19 to May 26, 2026? No 61¢ 0¢ $18 $0 −$18 (-100%)
Will Donald Trump post 140-159 Truth Social posts from May 15 to May 22, 2026? Yes 4¢ 0¢ $5 $0 −$5 (-100%)
Will Donald Trump post 140-159 Truth Social posts from May 12 to May 19, 2026? Yes 9¢ 0¢ $0 $0 −$0 (-100%)
Will Donald Trump post 200+ Truth Social posts from May 26 to June 2, 2026? No 73¢ 0¢ $18 $0 −$18 (-100%)
Will Donald Trump post 100-119 Truth Social posts from May 15 to May 22, 2026? Yes 2¢ 0¢ $3 $0 −$3 (-100%)
Will Donald Trump post 80-99 Truth Social posts from May 26 to June 2, 2026? Yes 6¢ 0¢ $16 $0 −$16 (-100%)
Will Donald Trump post 120-139 Truth Social posts from May 12 to May 19, 2026? Yes 3¢ 0¢ $3 $0 −$3 (-100%)
Top-25 open positions by current value. Prices in cents = market-implied probability (50¢ = 50%).
Closed markets — PnL by actual resolution, newest first
MarketwheninvestedPnLROI
Will Russia capture Kostyantynivka by June 30? Jun 14 $5,826 −$696 -12%
Will Elon Musk post 65-89 tweets from June 11 to June 13, 2026? Jun 13 $4 +$4 +82%
Will Elon Musk post 40-64 tweets from June 11 to June 13, 2026? Jun 13 $483 +$1,090 +226%
Will IR Iran win on 2026-06-15? Jun 10 $207 −$10 -5%
US announces new Iran agreement/ceasefire extension by June 9? Jun 08 $200 −$87 -43%
Iran closes its airspace by June 8? Jun 07 $3,168 −$389 -12%
Israel strike on Yemen by June 30, 2026? Jun 07 $100 −$57 -57%
Israel closes its airspace by June 15? Jun 07 $300 +$99 +33%
Will Donald Trump post 160-179 Truth Social posts from May 26 to June Jun 02 $163 +$43 +26%
Will Donald Trump post 140-159 Truth Social posts from May 29 to June May 28 $7 −$6 -96%
Will Donald Trump post 80-99 Truth Social posts from May 26 to June 2, May 28 $17 −$16 -96%
Will Donald Trump post 200+ Truth Social posts from May 26 to June 2, May 27 $26 −$16 -62%
Will Donald Trump post 180-199 Truth Social posts from May 19 to May 2 May 27 $102 −$2 -2%
Will Donald Trump post 140-159 Truth Social posts from May 19 to May 2 May 27 $69 +$37 +54%
Will Donald Trump post 60-79 Truth Social posts from May 26 to June 2, May 26 $34 −$32 -95%
US announces new Iran agreement/ceasefire extension by May 25? May 26 $15 −$12 -80%
US x Iran permanent peace deal by May 26, 2026? May 26 $1,518 −$379 -25%
Will Donald Trump post 160-179 Truth Social posts from May 19 to May 2 May 26 $144 −$38 -26%
Will Donald Trump post 200+ Truth Social posts from May 19 to May 26, May 24 $117 +$29 +25%
Will Donald Trump post 100-119 Truth Social posts from May 19 to May 2 May 23 $3 −$3 -95%
Will Donald Trump post 120-139 Truth Social posts from May 19 to May 2 May 23 $16 −$15 -96%
Will Donald Trump post 180-199 Truth Social posts from May 15 to May 2 May 21 $55 −$5 -10%
Al Khaleej Saudi Club leading at halftime? May 19 $6 −$6 -100%
Casa Pia AC vs. Rio Ave FC: O/U 3.5 May 19 $9 −$9 -100%
Will Donald Trump post 100-119 Truth Social posts from May 12 to May 1 May 19 $12 −$11 -88%
Will Donald Trump post 80-99 Truth Social posts from May 12 to May 19, May 19 $60 −$60 -100%
Will Donald Trump post 40-59 Truth Social posts from May 12 to May 19, May 19 $9 −$9 -100%
Will Donald Trump post 140-159 Truth Social posts from May 12 to May 1 May 19 $150 $0 -0%
Will Donald Trump post 120-139 Truth Social posts from May 12 to May 1 May 19 $65 −$3 -5%
Will Donald Trump post 200+ Truth Social posts from May 15 to May 22, May 18 $242 −$235 -97%
Will Donald Trump post 160-179 Truth Social posts from May 12 to May 1 May 18 $43 −$3 -7%
Will Donald Trump post 120-139 Truth Social posts from May 15 to May 2 May 18 $13 −$13 -98%
Will Donald Trump post 100-119 Truth Social posts from May 15 to May 2 May 17 $3 −$3 -100%
PSV leading at halftime? May 16 $14 −$1 -4%
TSG 1899 Hoffenheim leading at halftime? May 16 $6 −$1 -12%
Gwangju FC leading at halftime? May 16 $31 −$31 -100%
Petrojet SC vs. Modern SC: O/U 3.5 May 16 $3 −$1 -15%
PSV vs. FC Twente '65: O/U 1.5 May 16 $13 −$9 -69%
FC Groningen leading at halftime? May 16 $6 −$1 -16%
Deportivo Alavés leading at halftime? May 16 $6 −$1 -15%
Ghazl El Mahalla SC vs. El Ittihad SC El Iskandary: O/U 3.5 May 16 $24 −$8 -34%
Petrojet SC vs. Modern SC: O/U 2.5 May 16 $24 −$3 -13%
Ghazl El Mahalla SC vs. El Ittihad SC El Iskandary: O/U 2.5 May 16 $28 −$6 -22%
Will Botafogo FC win on 2026-05-16? May 16 $33 −$1 -3%
Will Modern SC win on 2026-05-17? May 16 $64 −$10 -15%
Will CR Brasil win on 2026-05-17? May 16 $97 −$16 -17%
Rams Başakşehir FK leading at halftime? May 16 $6 +$8 +123%
Sport Lisboa e Benfica leading at halftime? May 16 $15 +$12 +82%
NEC leading at halftime? May 16 $244 −$29 -12%
AZ leading at halftime? May 16 $235 −$35 -15%
Latest 50 closed markets. Resolution = Polymarket fact (redeemable/curPrice), not a timer.
world 72% +$9,319
crypto 12% −$6,814
other 9% +$4,641
politics 6% −$1,297
sports 1% −$742
Share of volume and PnL by niche (realized + unrealized). Shows where the trader actually earns — and where they bleed.
Latest trades by this wallet
Marketsidepricesizewhen
US x Iran permanent peace deal by June 15, 2026? BUY Yes 10¢ $540 2h
Will Russia capture Lyman by June 30, 2026? SELL Yes 6¢ $111 2h
Will Russia capture Kostyantynivka by June 30? SELL Yes 19¢ $429 2h
US x Iran permanent peace deal by June 15, 2026? BUY Yes 12¢ $393 2h
Will Russia capture Kostyantynivka by June 30? SELL Yes 19¢ $14 2h
Will Russia capture Kostyantynivka by June 30? SELL Yes 19¢ $120 2h
US x Iran permanent peace deal by June 15, 2026? BUY Yes 12¢ $503 2h
Will Russia capture Kostyantynivka by June 30? SELL Yes 22¢ $503 2h
US x Iran permanent peace deal by June 15, 2026? BUY Yes 12¢ $3,696 2h
US x Iran permanent peace deal by June 15, 2026? SELL Yes 10¢ $742 3h
US x Iran permanent peace deal by June 15, 2026? SELL Yes 10¢ $2,954 3h
US x Iran permanent peace deal by June 15, 2026? BUY Yes 11¢ $249 4h
US x Iran permanent peace deal by June 15, 2026? BUY Yes 11¢ $777 4h
US x Iran permanent peace deal by June 15, 2026? BUY Yes 11¢ $482 4h
Will Russia capture Kostyantynivka by June 30? SELL Yes 24¢ $482 4h
US x Iran permanent peace deal by June 15, 2026? BUY Yes 26¢ $150 8h
Will Russia capture Kostyantynivka by June 30? SELL Yes 24¢ $150 8h
US x Iran permanent peace deal by June 15, 2026? BUY Yes 25¢ $790 8h
Will Russia capture Kostyantynivka by June 30? SELL Yes 33¢ $790 8h
Will Russia capture Lyman by June 30, 2026? BUY Yes 9¢ $8 11h
Will Russia capture Lyman by June 30, 2026? BUY Yes 10¢ $168 20h
US x Iran permanent peace deal by June 15, 2026? BUY Yes 26¢ $132 20h
Will Russia capture Lyman by June 30, 2026? BUY Yes 10¢ $73 21h
Will Russia capture Kostyantynivka by June 30? BUY Yes 38¢ $77 21h
Will Russia capture Kostyantynivka by June 30? BUY Yes 38¢ $64 21h
US x Iran permanent peace deal by June 15, 2026? SELL Yes 26¢ $514 21h
Will Russia capture Kostyantynivka by June 30? BUY Yes 37¢ $343 21h
US x Iran permanent peace deal by June 15, 2026? SELL Yes 26¢ $343 21h
US x Iran permanent peace deal by June 15, 2026? BUY Yes 23¢ $8 25h
Will Elon Musk post 65-89 tweets from June 11 to June 13, 2026? SELL No 67¢ $8 25h
From the wallet’s activity history (Polymarket /activity), latest 30.
negative after costs — do not copy
break-even: the trader needs > 10.5% gross ROI/market for the copier to break even
chance a trade nets +20%
net ROI/market (all)-32.4%
timeframemarkets gross ROINET ROI gross WRNET WR net PnL (wtd)
≤7d 8 +26.5% +14.4% 38% 38% -9.9%
≤30d 53 -38.5% -44.4% 15% 15% -15.8%
≤90d 234 -47.0% -52.1% 14% 13% -8.6%
all 303 -25.3% -32.4% 22% 20% -8.5%
<b>gross</b> = as the leader traded. <b>net</b> = what WE’d keep after slippage (we enter later, price moved). Net ROI ≤ 0 → copying loses even if the leader profits.
turnover12.9 tr/day
realistic slip~9%
edge survives to0%
copier slippageNET ROINET WRnet PnL (wtd)
5% ideal ← realistic here -32.4% 20% -8.5%
10% -38.8% 18% -17.3%
15% -44.8% 16% -25.3%
20% -50.2% 13% -32.6%
Realistic slippage grows with turnover and leader size. If net ROI turns negative before the realistic slip — it’s a <b>trap</b>: leader profits, you lose.
✓ Calibrated vs Polymarket: our portfolio calc $9,632.45 · official $9,632.45 (match) · 2465 history records