Wallet analysis

2026-06-25T01:44:00+00:00

trader profile + honest PnL by actual resolution and NET edge after slippage — worth copying?

3.0
score
84 0x84c0…4ead world 17 markets active 2h ago coverage 465d
TRAPdo not copy ⚠ Small sample
✗ negative after realistic slippage! limited sample (<25 closed)
Total PnL +$2 (+1%) realized +$2 · open +$0
Gross ROI / mkt +1% what the leader earns
−copy tax
Net edge / mkt -9% what you keep after slip
Net edge-9%after slip
Net WR6%break-even
Win rate50%8W / 8L
Drawdown44%max
Avg bet$19per market
Trades / day0.1pace
Kalshi-fit76%portable
Net worth$34now

Equity curve

realized PnL
1W 1M 3M YTD 1Y All
2 days−$1
7 days−$1
14 days−$1
30 days−$1
Cards show realized PnL over calendar windows (by resolution date). The “Total PnL” chart appears for wallets we track daily.

Categories

share · PnL
world 63% +$1
other 19% $0
finance 9% +$1
politics 5% +$1
weather 3% $0
economics 0% $0
Share of volume and PnL by niche (realized + unrealized). Shows where the trader actually earns — and where they bleed.

The copy-tax — evidence

gross is the leader · net is you

Net edge · by timeframe

gross → net
negative after costs — do not copy
break-even: the trader needs > 10.5% gross ROI/market for the copier to break even
chance a trade nets +6%
net ROI/market (all)-8.8%
timeframemarkets gross ROINET ROI gross WRNET WR net PnL (wtd)
≤7d 3 -2.0% -11.3% 0% 0% -10.5%
≤30d 4 -1.5% -10.9% 0% 0% -10.2%
≤90d 8 +0.1% -9.4% 38% 0% -9.0%
all 16 +0.8% -8.8% 50% 6% -8.9%
<b>gross</b> = as the leader traded. <b>net</b> = what WE’d keep after slippage (we enter later, price moved). Net ROI ≤ 0 → copying loses even if the leader profits.

Slippage survival

net ROI/WR at slip
turnover0.1 tr/day
realistic slip~5%
edge survives to0%
copier slippageNET ROINET WRnet PnL (wtd)
5% ideal ← realistic here -8.8% 6% -8.9%
10% -17.5% 0% -17.6%
15% -25.5% 0% -25.6%
20% -32.8% 0% -32.9%
Realistic slippage grows with turnover and leader size. If net ROI turns negative before the realistic slip — it’s a <b>trap</b>: leader profits, you lose.

Edge quality

honest signals — luck vs skill
Profit concentration
top 38% · top 2 67% thin sample
Edge freshness (90d)
90d ROI +0% 90d near zero / fading
Fragile wins
88% wins margin < slip thin sample
Flat-copyable
equal-wt +1% · $-wt +1% works when copied flat
Big bets
big-bet WR —% no data
Persistence
early +2% → late +0% edge persists early→late
Add-ons / DCA
1.2 add-ons/market flat bettor — clean entries
Win / loss size
+$1 vs −$0 · ×1.45 wins ≈ losses
Profit factor
×1.93 per $1 lost it wins $1.93
Copy size
≥ $50 mirror leader trades ≥ this size to copy only main ideas

Supporting detail

465d coverage
Net worth$34
Realized+$2
Unrealized+$0
Win rate (resolved)50%
Wins / losses8 / 8
Open positions1
Markets (closed)16 / 17
History coverage465d
Avg bet$19
Trades / day0.1
Drawdown44%
Kalshi-fit76%

Ledger

positions · history · trades
Positions 1 History 16 Trades
Open positions — marked to current price, like Polymarket
Marketoutcome entrynow investedvalue unrealized PnL
Israel closes its airspace by June 30? No 98¢ 98¢ $34 $34 −$0 (-0%)
Top-25 open positions by current value. Prices in cents = market-implied probability (50¢ = 50%).
Closed markets — PnL by actual resolution, newest first
MarketwheninvestedPnLROI
Mojtaba Khamenei seen in public by July 31? Jun 24 $45 $0 -1%
Israeli parliament dissolved by June 30? Jun 23 $8 $0 -5%
Will United Russia (ER) gain the most seats in the next Russian parlia Jun 23 $32 $0 +0%
Strait of Hormuz traffic returns to normal by July 31? May 26 $35 $0 +0%
Israel and Indonesia normalize relations by June 30, 2026? May 25 $35 $0 +0%
US-Iran nuclear deal by June 30? May 25 $25 −$1 -3%
Iran closes its airspace by May 31? May 24 $28 +$2 +6%
Iran agrees to surrender enriched uranium stockpile by May 31, 2026? May 24 $30 +$1 +4%
Will the Toronto Blue Jays win the 2025 World Series? Dec 14 $2 $0 +0%
Will the Washington Commanders win Super Bowl 2026? Jun 26 $9 $0 -0%
Fed decreases interest rates by 25 bps after June 2025 meeting? Jun 19 $1 $0 +3%
Will Victor Ponta win the Romanian presidential election? May 20 $8 +$1 +12%
Will Albania win Eurovision 2025? Apr 21 $8 $0 +0%
Will Na Kyung-won be the People's Power Party candidate for president? Apr 19 $8 $0 -0%
Will Hamas enter Israel by Friday? Mar 23 $11 $0 +2%
Will the highest temperature in NYC be between 54-55°F on March 17? Mar 17 $11 $0 -4%
Latest 50 closed markets. Resolution = Polymarket fact (redeemable/curPrice), not a timer.
Latest trades by this wallet
Marketsidepricesizewhen
Israel closes its airspace by June 30? BUY No 98¢ $34 1h
Mojtaba Khamenei seen in public by July 31? SELL Yes 32¢ $13 23h
Mojtaba Khamenei seen in public by July 31? BUY Yes 32¢ $13 23h
Mojtaba Khamenei seen in public by July 31? SELL No 68¢ $21 28h
Mojtaba Khamenei seen in public by July 31? SELL No 68¢ $10 28h
Mojtaba Khamenei seen in public by July 31? BUY No 69¢ $32 30h
Israeli parliament dissolved by June 30? SELL Yes 19¢ $8 37h
Israeli parliament dissolved by June 30? BUY Yes 20¢ $8 38h
Will United Russia (ER) gain the most seats in the next Russian parlia SELL Yes 60¢ $32 44h
Will United Russia (ER) gain the most seats in the next Russian parlia BUY Yes 60¢ $32 44h
Strait of Hormuz traffic returns to normal by July 31? SELL No 42¢ $35 29d
Strait of Hormuz traffic returns to normal by July 31? BUY No 42¢ $35 29d
Israel and Indonesia normalize relations by June 30, 2026? SELL No 95¢ $35 30d
Israel and Indonesia normalize relations by June 30, 2026? BUY No 95¢ $35 30d
US-Iran nuclear deal by June 30? SELL No 58¢ $3 30d
US-Iran nuclear deal by June 30? SELL No 58¢ $21 30d
US-Iran nuclear deal by June 30? BUY No 60¢ $25 30d
Iran closes its airspace by May 31? SELL Yes 33¢ $29 31d
Iran closes its airspace by May 31? BUY Yes 32¢ $14 31d
Iran closes its airspace by May 31? BUY Yes 32¢ $14 31d
Iran agrees to surrender enriched uranium stockpile by May 31, 2026? SELL No 93¢ $32 31d
Iran agrees to surrender enriched uranium stockpile by May 31, 2026? BUY No 89¢ $12 31d
Iran agrees to surrender enriched uranium stockpile by May 31, 2026? BUY No 89¢ $18 31d
Will the Toronto Blue Jays win the 2025 World Series? SELL No 96¢ $1 342d
Will the Washington Commanders win Super Bowl 2026? SELL No 95¢ $9 363d
Fed decreases interest rates by 25 bps after June 2025 meeting? BUY No 98¢ $1 386d
Will the Washington Commanders win Super Bowl 2026? BUY No 96¢ $9 400d
Will Victor Ponta win the Romanian presidential election? BUY No 90¢ $8 429d
Will Albania win Eurovision 2025? SELL No 99¢ $8 429d
Will Albania win Eurovision 2025? BUY No 99¢ $8 431d
From the wallet’s activity history (Polymarket /activity), latest 30.
Calibrated vs Polymarket: our portfolio calc $34.30 · official $34.32 (match) · 40 history records