Wallet analysis

2026-06-19T16:36:24+00:00

trader profile + honest PnL by actual resolution and NET edge after slippage — worth copying?

1.5
score
84 0x84bc…4aad sports 222 markets active 0h ago coverage 15d
TRAPdo not copy sports specialistFading edge⚠ High turnover
✗ negative after realistic slippage! high turnover
Total PnL −$639 (-1%) realized −$306 · open −$333
Copy trade Watchlist View on Polymarket ↗
Gross ROI / mkt -2% what the leader earns
→−copy tax
Net edge / mkt -24% what you keep after slip
Net edge-24%after slip
Net WR47%break-even
Win rate47%101W / 114L
Whale WR67%big bets
Drawdown100%max
Avg bet$211per market
Trades / day22.7pace
Fees−$703est.
Kalshi-fit96%portable
Net worth$216now

Equity curve

realized PnL
1W 1M 3M YTD 1Y All
2 days+$1,230
7 days+$1,257
14 days+$1,995
30 days+$719
Cards show realized PnL over calendar windows (by resolution date). The “Total PnL” chart appears for wallets we track daily.

Categories

share · PnL
sports 96% −$40
other 3% −$57
crypto 1% +$484
Share of volume and PnL by niche (realized + unrealized). Shows where the trader actually earns — and where they bleed.

The copy-tax — evidence

gross is the leader · net is you

Net edge · by timeframe

gross → net
negative after costs — do not copy
break-even: the trader needs > 10.5% gross ROI/market for the copier to break even
chance a trade nets +47%
net ROI/market (all)-10.9%
timeframemarkets gross ROINET ROI gross WRNET WR net PnL (wtd)
≤7d 89 +3.2% -6.6% 45% 44% -0.8%
≤30d 215 -1.5% -10.9% 47% 47% -8.0%
≤90d 215 -1.5% -10.9% 47% 47% -8.0%
all 215 -1.5% -10.9% 47% 47% -8.0%
<b>gross</b> = as the leader traded. <b>net</b> = what WE’d keep after slippage (we enter later, price moved). Net ROI ≤ 0 → copying loses even if the leader profits.

Slippage survival

net ROI/WR at slip
turnover22.7 tr/day
realistic slip~13%
edge survives to0%
copier slippageNET ROINET WRnet PnL (wtd)
5% ideal -10.9% 47% -8.0%
10% ← realistic here -19.4% 46% -16.8%
15% -27.2% 44% -24.8%
20% -34.3% 37% -32.2%
Realistic slippage grows with turnover and leader size. If net ROI turns negative before the realistic slip — it’s a <b>trap</b>: leader profits, you lose.

Edge quality

honest signals — luck vs skill
Profit concentration
top 4% · top 2 8% broad-based profit
Edge freshness (90d)
90d ROI +2% 90d near zero / fading
Fragile wins
1% wins margin < slip solid win margins
Flat-copyable
equal-wt -2% · $-wt +2% edge needs big-bet sizing — not flat-copyable
Big bets
big-bet WR 67% (≥$500) strong on big bets
Persistence
early +1% → late -4% edge faded
Add-ons / DCA
1.1 add-ons/market flat bettor — clean entries
Win / loss size
+$217 vs −$186 · ×1.17 wins ≈ losses
Profit factor
×1.03 profit barely above losses
Copy size
≥ $50 mirror leader trades ≥ this size to copy only main ideas

Supporting detail

15d coverage
Net worth$216
Realized−$306
Unrealized−$333
Win rate (resolved)47%
Wins / losses101 / 114
Whale WR (big bets)67%
Est. fees paid−$703
Open positions3
Markets (closed)215 / 222
History coverage15d
Avg bet$211
Trades / day22.7
Drawdown100%
Kalshi-fit96%

Ledger

positions · history · trades
Positions 3 History 215 Trades
Open positions — marked to current price, like Polymarket
Marketoutcome entrynow investedvalue unrealized PnL
Nottingham Open: Ann Li vs Viktorija Golubic Ann Li 35¢ 34¢ $114 $108 −$6 (-5%)
Halle Open: Daniel Altmaier vs Daniil Medvedev Daniel Altmaier 44¢ 46¢ $105 $108 +$3 (+3%)
HSBC Championships: Arthur Fery vs Francisco Cerundolo Arthur Fery 46¢ 0¢ $330 $0 −$330 (-100%)
Top-25 open positions by current value. Prices in cents = market-implied probability (50¢ = 50%). Plus 100 resolved losing bets — already counted in realized PnL, so not shown here.
Closed markets — PnL by actual resolution, newest first
MarketwheninvestedPnLROI
Grass Court Championships: Aryna Sabalenka vs Nikola Bartunkova Jun 19 $233 +$209 +89%
Set 1 Winner: Altmaier vs Medvedev Jun 19 $108 −$106 -98%
Figueira Da Foz: Susan Bandecchi vs Alina Charaeva Jun 19 $197 +$144 +73%
Halle Open: Alexander Zverev vs Raphael Collignon Jun 19 $102 −$99 -97%
Nottingham 2: Zhizhen Zhang vs Otto Virtanen Jun 19 $244 −$240 -98%
Set Handicap: Pliskova (-1.5) vs Gibson (+1.5) Jun 19 $183 +$360 +197%
Set 1 Winner: Zverev vs Collignon Jun 19 $200 −$196 -98%
HSBC Championships: Hamad Medjedovic vs Ugo Humbert Jun 19 $416 −$255 -61%
Halle Open: Ben Shelton vs Taylor Fritz Jun 19 $261 +$198 +76%
Nottingham Open: Marie Bouzkova vs Tatjana Maria Jun 19 $154 −$152 -99%
Set Handicap: Keys (-1.5) vs Pegula (+1.5) Jun 19 $226 −$226 -100%
ITF Tokyo: Naoya Honda vs Hunter Heck Jun 19 $156 −$152 -98%
ITF Irvine: Vignesh Gogineni vs Bryce Nakashima Jun 18 $203 +$261 +128%
Parma: Daniel Rincon vs Buvaysar Gadamauri Jun 18 $172 +$162 +94%
Set 1 Winner: Medjedovic vs Humbert Jun 18 $172 +$189 +110%
HSBC Championships: Rinky Hijikata vs Jiri Lehecka Jun 18 $313 −$309 -99%
Spread: Czechia (-1.5) Jun 18 $337 −$330 -98%
Halle Open: Raphael Collignon vs Mattia Bellucci Jun 18 $206 +$444 +215%
Set 1 Winner: Collignon vs Bellucci Jun 18 $252 −$248 -99%
Grass Court Championships: Madison Keys vs Karolina Muchova Jun 18 $489 +$504 +103%
Set Handicap: Shelton (-1.5) vs Quinn (+1.5) Jun 18 $188 +$285 +152%
Set 1 Winner: Bouzkova vs Klugman Jun 18 $145 −$143 -99%
Halle Open: Ben Shelton vs Ethan Quinn Jun 18 $110 +$52 +48%
Nottingham Open: Karolina Pliskova vs Caty McNally Jun 18 $78 +$31 +40%
Dublin: Grigor Dimitrov vs Kyrian Jacquet Jun 18 $23 −$23 -98%
Netherlands vs. Sweden: Both Teams to Score AND Brazil vs. Haiti: Both Jun 18 $1 $0 -32%
Portugal vs. DR Congo: O/U 3.5 AND Belgium vs. Egypt: O/U 2.5 AND Will Jun 18 $144 +$871 +606%
Iraq vs. Norway: Draw at halftime? Jun 16 $73 −$72 -98%
Figueira Da Foz: Jeline Vandromme vs Allura Zamarripa Jun 16 $88 −$87 -99%
Brescia: Carole Monnet vs Martina Trevisan Jun 16 $69 −$68 -98%
Set 1 Winner: Norrie vs Fokina Jun 16 $49 −$48 -98%
Set 1 Winner: Majchrzak vs Lehecka Jun 16 $132 −$130 -99%
Nottingham Open: Sara Bejlek vs Karolina Pliskova Jun 16 $93 +$87 +93%
Dublin: Ivan Ivanov vs Stefanos Sakellaridis Jun 16 $201 −$197 -98%
Poznan: Martin Krumich vs Alan Wazny Jun 16 $152 +$94 +62%
Set 1 Winner: Minaur vs Diallo Jun 16 $102 −$100 -98%
Parma: Pedro Martinez vs Daniel Rincon Jun 16 $76 −$75 -98%
Set Handicap: Zverev (-1.5) vs Kopriva (+1.5) Jun 16 $77 +$151 +197%
Set Handicap: Kokkinakis (-1.5) vs Kym (+1.5) Jun 16 $101 −$100 -99%
HSBC Championships: Giovanni Mpetshi Perricard vs Corentin Moutet Jun 16 $232 −$57 -25%
Set Handicap: Dimitrov (-1.5) vs Rodesch (+1.5) Jun 16 $163 +$189 +116%
Figueira Da Foz: Elena Micic vs Francisca Jorge Jun 16 $97 −$96 -99%
HSBC Championships: Ignacio Buse vs Marcos Giron Jun 16 $119 +$141 +119%
Set Handicap: Mensik (-1.5) vs Mannarino (+1.5) Jun 16 $98 −$96 -98%
Parma: Marco Cecchinato vs Carlo Alberto Caniato Jun 16 $57 +$47 +82%
Nottingham Open: Ann Li vs Kimberly Birrell Jun 16 $66 −$65 -98%
Nottingham 2: Dane Sweeny vs Jacob Fearnley Jun 16 $51 +$5 +10%
Parma: Alvaro Guillen Meza vs Federico Bondioli Jun 16 $59 +$59 +101%
Will Uruguay win on 2026-06-15? Jun 15 $75 −$73 -98%
Saudi Arabia vs. Uruguay: Draw at halftime? Jun 15 $169 −$166 -98%
Latest 50 closed markets. Resolution = Polymarket fact (redeemable/curPrice), not a timer.
Latest trades by this wallet
Marketsidepricesizewhen
Nottingham Open: Ann Li vs Viktorija Golubic BUY Ann Li 35¢ $116 1m
Halle Open: Daniel Altmaier vs Daniil Medvedev BUY Daniel Altmaier 44¢ $107 16m
HSBC Championships: Arthur Fery vs Francisco Cerundolo BUY Arthur Fery 46¢ $335 31m
Grass Court Championships: Aryna Sabalenka vs Nikola Bartunkova SELL Aryna Sabalenka 100¢ $442 31m
Set 1 Winner: Altmaier vs Medvedev BUY Medvedev 42¢ $108 1h
Grass Court Championships: Aryna Sabalenka vs Nikola Bartunkova BUY Aryna Sabalenka 52¢ $233 1h
Figueira Da Foz: Susan Bandecchi vs Alina Charaeva SELL Alina Charaeva 100¢ $341 1h
Figueira Da Foz: Susan Bandecchi vs Alina Charaeva BUY Alina Charaeva 57¢ $197 2h
Halle Open: Alexander Zverev vs Raphael Collignon BUY Raphael Collignon 12¢ $102 2h
Nottingham 2: Zhizhen Zhang vs Otto Virtanen BUY Zhizhen Zhang 42¢ $244 2h
Set Handicap: Pliskova (-1.5) vs Gibson (+1.5) SELL Pliskova 100¢ $543 2h
Set 1 Winner: Zverev vs Collignon BUY Collignon 34¢ $200 3h
HSBC Championships: Hamad Medjedovic vs Ugo Humbert BUY Hamad Medjedovic 43¢ $259 3h
Halle Open: Ben Shelton vs Taylor Fritz SELL Taylor Fritz 100¢ $459 3h
Set Handicap: Pliskova (-1.5) vs Gibson (+1.5) BUY Pliskova 33¢ $183 4h
Nottingham Open: Marie Bouzkova vs Tatjana Maria SELL Tatjana Maria 0¢ $1 5h
Nottingham Open: Marie Bouzkova vs Tatjana Maria BUY Tatjana Maria 35¢ $154 5h
Set Handicap: Keys (-1.5) vs Pegula (+1.5) BUY Keys 29¢ $226 7h
Halle Open: Ben Shelton vs Taylor Fritz BUY Taylor Fritz 56¢ $261 8h
ITF Tokyo: Naoya Honda vs Hunter Heck BUY Naoya Honda 27¢ $6 8h
ITF Tokyo: Naoya Honda vs Hunter Heck BUY Naoya Honda 28¢ $48 8h
ITF Tokyo: Naoya Honda vs Hunter Heck BUY Naoya Honda 29¢ $102 9h
Mexico vs. Korea Republic: 1st Half O/U 0.5 AND Canada vs. Qatar: 1st BUY 43¢ $240 18h
ITF Irvine: Vignesh Gogineni vs Bryce Nakashima SELL Bryce Nakashima 100¢ $465 19h
Parma: Daniel Rincon vs Buvaysar Gadamauri SELL Daniel Rincon 100¢ $334 19h
ITF Irvine: Vignesh Gogineni vs Bryce Nakashima BUY Bryce Nakashima 43¢ $203 19h
HSBC Championships: Hamad Medjedovic vs Ugo Humbert SELL Ugo Humbert 54¢ $313 20h
HSBC Championships: Hamad Medjedovic vs Ugo Humbert BUY Ugo Humbert 26¢ $156 21h
Mexico vs. Korea Republic: Both Teams to Score AND Canada vs. Qatar: O BUY 18¢ $205 21h
Set 1 Winner: Medjedovic vs Humbert SELL Medjedovic 100¢ $361 21h
From the wallet’s activity history (Polymarket /activity), latest 30.
≈ Vs Polymarket: our portfolio calc $216.28 · official $386.94 · 365 history records