Wallet analysis

2026-06-15T18:10:27+00:00

trader profile + honest PnL by actual resolution and NET edge after slippage — worth copying?

2.0

score

84 0x84b9…b5a7 sports 15 markets active 1h ago coverage 1d

UNRELIABLEdata unreliable sports specialistFading edge⚠ High turnover⚠ Small sample

✗ only 1d of captured history — unreliable! high turnover! limited sample (<25 closed)

Total PnL +$8 (+4%) realized +$10 · open −$2

Copy trade Watchlist View on Polymarket ↗

Gross ROI / mkt +124% what the leader earns

→−copy tax

Net edge / mkt +72% what you keep after slip

Net edge+72%after slip

Net WR43%break-even

Win rate50%7W / 7L

Drawdown98%max

Avg bet$14per market

Trades / day26.8pace

Fees−$4est.

Kalshi-fit100%portable

Net worth$25now

Equity curve

realized PnL

Not enough resolved history to chart — analysis covers only 1d (hyperactive wallet — we see only the tail of its trades). A “Total PnL” curve will appear once daily tracking accumulates.

The copy-tax — evidence

gross is the leader · net is you

Net edge · by timeframe

gross → net

borderline — thin edge, slippage-sensitive

break-even: the trader needs > 10.5% gross ROI/market for the copier to break even

chance a trade nets +43%

net ROI/market (all)+102.4%

timeframe	markets	gross ROI	NET ROI	gross WR	NET WR	net PnL (wtd)
≤7d	14	+123.8%	+102.4%	50%	43%	-6.1%
≤30d	14	+123.8%	+102.4%	50%	43%	-6.1%
≤90d	14	+123.8%	+102.4%	50%	43%	-6.1%
all	14	+123.8%	+102.4%	50%	43%	-6.1%

gross = as the leader traded. net = what WE’d keep after slippage (we enter later, price moved). Net ROI ≤ 0 → copying loses even if the leader profits.

Slippage survival

net ROI/WR at slip

turnover26.8 tr/day

realistic slip~13%

edge survives to20%

copier slippage	NET ROI	NET WR	net PnL (wtd)
5% ideal	+102.4%	43%	-6.1%
10% ← realistic here	+83.1%	29%	-15.1%
15%	+65.4%	29%	-23.3%
20%	+49.2%	14%	-30.8%

Realistic slippage grows with turnover and leader size. If net ROI turns negative before the realistic slip — it’s a trap: leader profits, you lose.

Edge quality

honest signals — luck vs skill

Profit concentration

top 22% · top 2 37% thin sample

Edge freshness (90d)

90d ROI +2% 90d near zero / fading

Fragile wins

14% wins margin < slip thin sample

Flat-copyable

equal-wt +124% · $-wt +2% works when copied flat

Big bets

big-bet WR —% no data

Persistence

early +270% → late -23% edge faded

Add-ons / DCA

1.5 add-ons/market flat bettor — clean entries

Win / loss size

+$3 vs −$3 · ×1.17 wins ≈ losses

Profit factor

×1.17 profit barely above losses

Copy size

≥ $50 mirror leader trades ≥ this size to copy only main ideas

Supporting detail

1d coverage

Net worth$25

Realized+$10

Unrealized−$2

Win rate (resolved)50%

Wins / losses7 / 7

Est. fees paid−$4

Open positions1

Markets (closed)14 / 15

History coverage1d

Avg bet$14

Trades / day26.8

Drawdown98%

Kalshi-fit100%

Ledger

positions · history · trades

Positions 1 History 14 Trades

Open positions — marked to current price, like Polymarket

Market	outcome	entry	now	invested	value	unrealized PnL
Will the highest temperature in Manila be 35°C on June 16?	No	76¢	70¢	$27	$25	−$2 (-8%)

Top-25 open positions by current value. Prices in cents = market-implied probability (50¢ = 50%). Plus 5 resolved losing bets — already counted in realized PnL, so not shown here.

Closed markets — PnL by actual resolution, newest first

Market	when	invested	PnL	ROI
Valorant: XLG Gaming vs EDward Gaming (BO3) - VCT Masters London Playo	Jun 15	$5	+$3	+63%
Valorant: XLG Gaming vs EDward Gaming - Map 2 Winner	Jun 15	$5	−$3	-68%
Valorant: XLG Gaming vs EDward Gaming - Map 1 Winner	Jun 15	$5	−$3	-53%
Will the highest temperature in Manila be 35°C on June 17?	Jun 15	$20	−$2	-8%
Will the highest temperature in Manila be 32°C on June 15?	Jun 15	$10	+$2	+20%
Will the highest temperature in Manila be 33°C on June 15?	Jun 15	$14	+$3	+20%
LoL: KT Rolster Challengers vs Saigon Warriors (BO3) - Asia Masters La	Jun 15	$2	−$2	-97%
LoL: KT Rolster Challengers vs Saigon Warriors - Game 1 Winner	Jun 15	$5	−$5	-98%
Valorant: G2 Esports vs FUT Esports - Map 2 Winner	Jun 14	$10	+$4	+36%
Valorant: G2 Esports vs FUT Esports - Map 1 Winner	Jun 14	$14	−$5	-37%
LoL: T1 vs Gen.G - Game 3 Winner	Jun 14	$33	−$1	-2%
LoL: T1 vs Gen.G - Game 4 Winner	Jun 14	$7	+$4	+58%
LoL: T1 vs Gen.G (BO5) - LCK Road to MSI	Jun 14	$11	+$5	+49%
LoL: T1 vs Gen.G - Game 2 Winner	Jun 14	$40	+$3	+8%

Latest 50 closed markets. Resolution = Polymarket fact (redeemable/curPrice), not a timer.

Latest trades by this wallet

Market	side	price	size	when
Valorant: XLG Gaming vs EDward Gaming (BO3) - VCT Masters London Playo	SELL EDward Gaming	99¢	$8	1h
Will the highest temperature in Manila be 35°C on June 16?	BUY No	73¢	$8	1h
Valorant: XLG Gaming vs EDward Gaming - Map 2 Winner	SELL EDward Gaming	19¢	$2	2h
Valorant: XLG Gaming vs EDward Gaming - Map 1 Winner	SELL XLG Gaming	25¢	$2	3h
Valorant: XLG Gaming vs EDward Gaming - Map 2 Winner	BUY EDward Gaming	58¢	$5	4h
Valorant: XLG Gaming vs EDward Gaming (BO3) - VCT Masters London Playo	BUY EDward Gaming	60¢	$5	4h
Valorant: XLG Gaming vs EDward Gaming - Map 1 Winner	BUY XLG Gaming	51¢	$5	4h
Will the highest temperature in Manila be 35°C on June 17?	SELL No	72¢	$19	4h
Will the highest temperature in Manila be 35°C on June 16?	BUY No	77¢	$19	9h
Will the highest temperature in Manila be 32°C on June 15?	SELL Yes	96¢	$12	10h
Will the highest temperature in Manila be 32°C on June 15?	BUY Yes	79¢	$10	11h
Will the highest temperature in Manila be 33°C on June 15?	SELL No	85¢	$17	12h
Will the highest temperature in Manila be 33°C on June 15?	BUY No	70¢	$14	13h
Will the highest temperature in Manila be 35°C on June 17?	BUY No	76¢	$20	13h
LoL: KT Rolster Challengers vs Saigon Warriors (BO3) - Asia Masters La	BUY Saigon Warriors	11¢	$2	13h
LoL: KT Rolster Challengers vs Saigon Warriors - Game 1 Winner	BUY Saigon Warriors	21¢	$5	13h
Valorant: G2 Esports vs FUT Esports - Map 2 Winner	SELL FUT Esports	32¢	$1	24h
Valorant: G2 Esports vs FUT Esports - Map 2 Winner	SELL FUT Esports	60¢	$13	24h
Valorant: G2 Esports vs FUT Esports - Map 1 Winner	BUY G2 Esports	28¢	$5	25h
Valorant: G2 Esports vs FUT Esports - Map 1 Winner	SELL FUT Esports	63¢	$13	25h
Valorant: G2 Esports vs FUT Esports - Map 1 Winner	BUY FUT Esports	40¢	$8	25h
Valorant: G2 Esports vs FUT Esports - Map 2 Winner	BUY FUT Esports	40¢	$10	25h
LoL: T1 vs Gen.G - Game 4 Winner	SELL T1	65¢	$10	32h
LoL: T1 vs Gen.G - Game 4 Winner	BUY T1	40¢	$7	32h
LoL: T1 vs Gen.G - Game 3 Winner	BUY Gen.G	68¢	$12	33h
LoL: T1 vs Gen.G - Game 3 Winner	SELL Gen.G	70¢	$16	33h
LoL: T1 vs Gen.G - Game 3 Winner	BUY Gen.G	42¢	$10	33h
LoL: T1 vs Gen.G - Game 3 Winner	SELL T1	60¢	$15	33h
LoL: T1 vs Gen.G - Game 3 Winner	BUY T1	39¢	$10	33h
LoL: T1 vs Gen.G (BO5) - LCK Road to MSI	SELL T1	35¢	$16	34h

From the wallet’s activity history (Polymarket /activity), latest 30.

✓ Calibrated vs Polymarket: our portfolio calc $24.53 · official $24.53 (match) · 39 history records