Wallet analysis

2026-06-28T16:23:32+00:00

trader profile + honest PnL by actual resolution and NET edge after slippage — worth copying?

3.0
score
84 0x84b8…d83a sports 62 markets active 1h ago coverage 232d
TRAPdo not copy sports specialistFading edge
✗ negative after realistic slippage
Total PnL +$157 (+4%) realized +$157 · open +$0
Gross ROI / mkt +3% what the leader earns
−copy tax
Net edge / mkt -7% what you keep after slip
Net edge-7%after slip
Net WR52%break-even
Win rate52%31W / 29L
Drawdown100%max
Avg bet$57per market
Trades / day0.3pace
Fees−$1est.
Kalshi-fit100%portable
Net worth$64now

Equity curve

realized PnL
1W 1M 3M YTD 1Y All
2 days$0
7 days$0
14 days$0
30 days$0
Cards show realized PnL over calendar windows (by resolution date). The “Total PnL” chart appears for wallets we track daily.

Categories

share · PnL
sports 100% +$151
Share of volume and PnL by niche (realized + unrealized). Shows where the trader actually earns — and where they bleed.

The copy-tax — evidence

gross is the leader · net is you

Net edge · by timeframe

gross → net
negative after costs — do not copy
break-even: the trader needs > 10.5% gross ROI/market for the copier to break even
chance a trade nets +52%
net ROI/market (all)-6.9%
timeframemarkets gross ROINET ROI gross WRNET WR net PnL (wtd)
≤7d no closed markets
≤30d no closed markets
≤90d no closed markets
all 60 +2.9% -6.9% 52% 52% -5.6%
<b>gross</b> = as the leader traded. <b>net</b> = what WE’d keep after slippage (we enter later, price moved). Net ROI ≤ 0 → copying loses even if the leader profits.

Slippage survival

net ROI/WR at slip
turnover0.3 tr/day
realistic slip~5%
edge survives to0%
copier slippageNET ROINET WRnet PnL (wtd)
5% ideal ← realistic here -6.9% 52% -5.6%
10% -15.8% 52% -14.6%
15% -23.9% 52% -22.9%
20% -31.4% 52% -30.4%
Realistic slippage grows with turnover and leader size. If net ROI turns negative before the realistic slip — it’s a <b>trap</b>: leader profits, you lose.

Edge quality

honest signals — luck vs skill
Profit concentration
top 7% · top 2 12% broad-based profit
Edge freshness (90d)
90d ROI — too few recent
Fragile wins
0% wins margin < slip solid win margins
Flat-copyable
equal-wt +3% · $-wt +4% works when copied flat
Big bets
big-bet WR —% no data
Persistence
early +15% → late -9% edge faded
Add-ons / DCA
1.0 add-ons/market flat bettor — clean entries
Win / loss size
+$58 vs −$57 · ×1.02 wins ≈ losses
Profit factor
×1.09 profit barely above losses
Copy size
≥ $50 mirror leader trades ≥ this size to copy only main ideas

Supporting detail

232d coverage
Net worth$64
Realized+$157
Unrealized+$0
Win rate (resolved)52%
Wins / losses31 / 29
Est. fees paid−$1
Open positions2
Markets (closed)60 / 62
History coverage232d
Avg bet$57
Trades / day0.3
Drawdown100%
Kalshi-fit100%

Ledger

positions · history · trades
Positions 2 History 60 Trades
Open positions — marked to current price, like Polymarket
Marketoutcome entrynow investedvalue unrealized PnL
Mattia Bellucci vs. Zachary Svajda: Total Sets O/U 3.5 Over 3.5 51¢ 50¢ $43 $43 −$0 (-1%)
Kopriva vs. Choinski: Match O/U 40.5 Under 53¢ 54¢ $21 $21 +$0 (+1%)
Top-25 open positions by current value. Prices in cents = market-implied probability (50¢ = 50%).
Closed markets — PnL by actual resolution, newest first
MarketwheninvestedPnLROI
Spread: 49ers (-1.5) Jan 07 $69 +$50 +72%
Spread: Magic (-5.5) Jan 03 $40 −$40 -100%
Brisbane International, Qualification: Rebecca Sramkova vs Kamilla Rak Jan 03 $48 +$52 +108%
Thunder vs. Warriors: O/U 231.5 Jan 03 $50 −$50 -100%
Ole Miss vs. Georgia: 1H Moneyline Jan 02 $80 +$51 +64%
Pelicans vs. Bulls Jan 01 $80 +$94 +117%
Spread: Bulls (-2.5) Dec 31 $40 −$40 -100%
Spread: Jaguars (-6.5) Dec 31 $52 −$52 -100%
Spread: Avalanche (-1.5) Dec 28 $50 +$27 +54%
Jazz vs. Spurs: 1H Moneyline Dec 28 $75 −$75 -100%
Miami (OH) vs. Fresno State: O/U 41.5 Dec 28 $54 +$50 +92%
1H Spread: Mavericks (-1.5) Dec 28 $58 −$58 -100%
Chargers vs. Cowboys Dec 22 $43 −$43 -100%
Spread: Oklahoma State Cowboys (-20.5) Dec 22 $25 −$25 -100%
Chargers vs. Cowboys: O/U 49.5 Dec 22 $54 +$52 +96%
Spread: Magic (-8.5) Dec 21 $50 −$50 -100%
Maple Leafs vs. Predators: O/U 6.5 Dec 21 $30 +$40 +133%
Howard Bison vs. UNCW Seahawks: O/U 142.5 Dec 21 $76 +$70 +92%
Spread: Tennessee Tech Golden Eagles (-1.5) Dec 21 $66 +$50 +75%
Spread: Western Michigan (-3.5) Dec 20 $15 −$15 -100%
Rams vs. Seahawks: 1H O/U 22.5 Dec 19 $50 +$50 +100%
Saint Mary's Gaels vs. Davidson Wildcats: O/U 135.5 Dec 10 $44 +$54 +122%
Spread: Ravens (-5.5) Dec 10 $51 −$51 -100%
Texas A&M vs. Texas Dec 01 $79 −$79 -100%
Spread: Michigan State Spartans (-22.5) Nov 26 $30 −$30 -100%
Spread: Western Michigan (-6.5) Nov 26 $50 +$44 +89%
Cavaliers vs. Raptors Nov 25 $80 −$80 -100%
Spread: Kansas Jayhawks (-4.5) Nov 25 $60 −$60 -100%
Spread: Baylor Bears (-3.5) Nov 25 $104 −$104 -100%
Spread: Seahawks (-11.5) Nov 24 $60 +$65 +108%
UConn vs. Florida Atlantic: O/U 65.5 Nov 23 $38 −$38 -100%
Niagara Purple Eagles vs. Howard Bison: O/U 144.5 Nov 23 $90 −$90 -100%
Liberty vs. Louisiana Tech Nov 23 $50 +$50 +100%
Nuggets vs. Rockets Nov 22 $135 −$135 -100%
76ers vs. Bucks: O/U 225.5 Nov 21 $70 −$70 -100%
Alabama State Hornets vs. Air Force Falcons: O/U 137.5 Nov 20 $52 +$59 +113%
South Florida Bulls vs. Oklahoma State Cowboys Nov 20 $30 −$30 -100%
Middle Tennessee Blue Raiders vs. Michigan Wolverines: O/U 157.5 Nov 20 $55 +$62 +113%
Islanders vs. Stars Nov 19 $60 +$98 +163%
Saint Peter's Peacocks vs. Delaware Fightin' Blue Hens Nov 19 $50 −$50 -100%
IU Indy Jaguars vs. Charleston Southern Buccaneers Nov 19 $100 +$122 +122%
Radford Highlanders vs. Cleveland State Vikings: O/U 161.5 Nov 17 $44 +$44 +100%
Spread: South Dakota Coyotes (-3.5) Nov 17 $53 −$53 -100%
Spread: Colorado State Rams (-4.5) Nov 17 $60 +$70 +117%
Panthers vs. Falcons: O/U 41.5 Nov 16 $48 +$48 +100%
O/U 51.5 Nov 16 $58 +$42 +72%
Spread: Kennesaw State (-3.5) Nov 16 $50 −$50 -100%
Purdue Boilermakers vs. Washington: O/U 51.5 Nov 16 $55 −$55 -100%
Ducks vs. Wild Nov 16 $33 +$27 +81%
Texas State vs. Southern Miss Nov 16 $58 +$83 +144%
Latest 50 closed markets. Resolution = Polymarket fact (redeemable/curPrice), not a timer.
Latest trades by this wallet
Marketsidepricesizewhen
Kopriva vs. Choinski: Match O/U 40.5 BUY Under 53¢ $22 1h
Mattia Bellucci vs. Zachary Svajda: Total Sets O/U 3.5 BUY Over 3.5 51¢ $44 1h
Spread: Magic (-5.5) BUY Magic 48¢ $40 176d
Thunder vs. Warriors: O/U 231.5 BUY Over 39¢ $50 176d
Spread: 49ers (-1.5) BUY Seahawks 58¢ $69 176d
Brisbane International, Qualification: Rebecca Sramkova vs Kamilla Rak BUY Sramkova 48¢ $48 176d
Ole Miss vs. Georgia: 1H Moneyline BUY Georgia 61¢ $80 177d
Pelicans vs. Bulls BUY Bulls 46¢ $80 179d
Spread: Bulls (-2.5) BUY Bulls 49¢ $40 182d
1H Spread: Mavericks (-1.5) BUY Mavericks 49¢ $58 182d
Jazz vs. Spurs: 1H Moneyline BUY Spurs 79¢ $75 182d
Miami (OH) vs. Fresno State: O/U 41.5 BUY Under 52¢ $54 183d
Spread: Jaguars (-6.5) BUY Jaguars 48¢ $52 184d
Spread: Avalanche (-1.5) BUY Golden Knights 65¢ $50 184d
Spread: Oklahoma State Cowboys (-20.5) BUY Oklahoma State Cowboys 50¢ $25 189d
Chargers vs. Cowboys: O/U 49.5 BUY Over 51¢ $54 189d
Spread: Magic (-8.5) BUY Magic 47¢ $50 189d
Spread: Tennessee Tech Golden Eagles (-1.5) BUY UT Martin Skyhawks 57¢ $66 189d
Maple Leafs vs. Predators: O/U 6.5 BUY Over 43¢ $30 189d
Howard Bison vs. UNCW Seahawks: O/U 142.5 BUY Under 52¢ $76 190d
Chargers vs. Cowboys BUY Cowboys 54¢ $43 190d
Spread: Western Michigan (-3.5) BUY Kennesaw State 52¢ $15 193d
Rams vs. Seahawks: 1H O/U 22.5 BUY Under 50¢ $50 193d
Saint Mary's Gaels vs. Davidson Wildcats: O/U 135.5 BUY Under 45¢ $44 203d
Spread: Ravens (-5.5) BUY Ravens 51¢ $51 204d
Spread: Michigan State Spartans (-22.5) BUY East Carolina Pirates 49¢ $30 215d
Spread: Western Michigan (-6.5) BUY Western Michigan 53¢ $50 215d
Spread: Baylor Bears (-3.5) BUY Creighton Bluejays 51¢ $104 215d
Texas A&M vs. Texas BUY Texas A&M 51¢ $79 215d
Spread: Kansas Jayhawks (-4.5) BUY Notre Dame Fighting Irish 47¢ $60 215d
From the wallet’s activity history (Polymarket /activity), latest 30.
Calibrated vs Polymarket: our portfolio calc $64.36 · official $64.36 (match) · 140 history records