Wallet analysis

2026-06-13T20:25:45+00:00

trader profile + honest PnL by actual resolution and NET edge after slippage — worth copying?

84
0x84b7…eeb5
weather · 433 markets active 1h ago
0.0score
−$36 -3%
TOTAL PnL · realized −$47 · open +$11
avoidriskycopy
✗ TRAP weather specialist⚠ High turnover
Copy trade Watchlist View on Polymarket ↗
Net worth$135
Realized−$47
Unrealized+$11
Win rate (resolved)79%
Wins / losses329 / 85
Open positions31
Markets (closed)414 / 433
History coverage40d
Avg bet$2
Trades / day10.9
Drawdown100%
Kalshi-fit100%
Chart Positions 31 History 414 Categories Trades Net edge Slippage
1W 1M 3M YTD 1Y All
2 days−$57
7 days−$30
14 days−$34
30 days−$51
Cards show realized PnL over calendar windows (by resolution date). The “Total PnL” chart appears for wallets we track daily.
Open positions — marked to current price, like Polymarket
Marketoutcome entrynow investedvalue unrealized PnL
Will China’s 2026 annual GDP growth (Y/Y) be between 4.0% and 5.0%? Yes 70¢ 78¢ $30 $34 +$3 (+11%)
U.S. agrees to a new trade deal with "India" before 2027? No 76¢ 75¢ $11 $10 −$0 (-1%)
Will the next diplomatic US-Iran meeting be in Switzerland? No 88¢ 84¢ $10 $10 −$0 (-5%)
Will the Iranian regime fall before 2027? No 61¢ 90¢ $6 $9 +$3 (+47%)
Will Mojtaba Khamenei be head of state in Iran end of 2026? Yes 32¢ 77¢ $3 $7 +$4 (+139%)
Will there be no change in Fed interest rates after the June 2026 meeting? Yes 85¢ 99¢ $6 $7 +$1 (+16%)
Will the Iranian regime fall by June 30? No 79¢ 99¢ $5 $6 +$1 (+26%)
Masoud Pezeshkian out by June 30? No 71¢ 99¢ $3 $4 +$1 (+40%)
Will the highest temperature in Tokyo be 23°C on June 15? No 81¢ 80¢ $3 $3 −$0 (-1%)
Will the highest temperature in Munich be 23°C on June 14? No 82¢ 88¢ $3 $3 +$0 (+8%)
Will the highest temperature in Toronto be 28°C on June 13? No 76¢ 100¢ $2 $3 +$1 (+31%)
Will the highest temperature in Paris be 24°C on June 14? No 83¢ 96¢ $2 $3 +$0 (+15%)
Will the highest temperature in London be 21°C on June 13? No 79¢ 100¢ $2 $3 +$1 (+27%)
Will the highest temperature in Chicago be between 68-69°F on June 14? No 85¢ 90¢ $2 $3 +$0 (+5%)
Will the highest temperature in Seoul be 25°C on June 14? No 85¢ 88¢ $2 $3 +$0 (+4%)
Will the highest temperature in Paris be 24°C on June 13? No 84¢ 100¢ $2 $2 +$0 (+19%)
Will the highest temperature in Toronto be 30°C on June 13? No 83¢ 86¢ $2 $2 +$0 (+3%)
Will the highest temperature in Tokyo be 25°C on June 14? No 84¢ 97¢ $2 $2 +$0 (+15%)
Will the highest temperature in London be 20°C on June 14? No 84¢ 78¢ $3 $2 −$0 (-8%)
Will the highest temperature in Denver be between 82-83°F on June 13? No 85¢ 92¢ $2 $2 +$0 (+9%)
Will the highest temperature in Buenos Aires be 12°C on June 14? No 97¢ 92¢ $2 $2 −$0 (-5%)
Will Israel reopen its embassy in Iran in 2026? No 87¢ 94¢ $2 $2 +$0 (+7%)
Will the highest temperature in Chicago be between 70-71°F on June 14? No 77¢ 72¢ $2 $2 −$0 (-7%)
Will the highest temperature in Paris be 28°C on June 15? No 77¢ 76¢ $2 $2 −$0 (-1%)
Will Victor Wembanyama record a quadruple double this season? No 99¢ 99¢ $2 $2 −$0 (-0%)
Top-25 open positions by current value. Prices in cents = market-implied probability (50¢ = 50%).
Closed markets — PnL by actual resolution, newest first
MarketwheninvestedPnLROI
Will the highest temperature in Denver be between 82-83°F on June 8? Jun 13 $2 −$2 -100%
Will the highest temperature in Seoul be 23°C on June 5? Jun 13 $2 −$2 -100%
Will the highest temperature in London be 23°C on June 1? Jun 13 $2 −$2 -100%
Will the highest temperature in Paris be 22°C on June 8? Jun 13 $2 −$2 -100%
Will the highest temperature in London be 19°C on June 7? Jun 13 $2 −$2 -100%
Will the highest temperature in Seoul be 24°C on June 7? Jun 13 $2 −$2 -100%
Will the highest temperature in Paris be 26°C on June 1? Jun 13 $2 −$2 -100%
Will the highest temperature in Toronto be 24°C on June 7? Jun 13 $2 −$2 -100%
Will the highest temperature in London be 19°C on June 4? Jun 13 $2 −$2 -100%
Will the highest temperature in Buenos Aires be 17°C on June 4? Jun 13 $2 −$2 -100%
Will the highest temperature in Seoul be 24°C on June 6? Jun 13 $2 −$2 -100%
Will the highest temperature in Toronto be 23°C on June 8? Jun 13 $2 −$2 -100%
Will the highest temperature in Toronto be 26°C on June 6? Jun 13 $2 −$2 -100%
Will the highest temperature in Tokyo be 27°C on May 31? Jun 13 $2 −$2 -100%
Will the highest temperature in Singapore be 30°C on June 11? Jun 13 $2 −$2 -100%
Will the highest temperature in Chicago be between 84-85°F on June 8? Jun 13 $2 −$2 -100%
Will the highest temperature in Toronto be 31°C on June 11? Jun 13 $3 −$3 -100%
Will the highest temperature in Singapore be 30°C on June 9? Jun 13 $3 −$3 -100%
Will the highest temperature in Munich be 13°C on June 10? Jun 13 $3 −$3 -100%
Will the highest temperature in Buenos Aires be 16°C on May 30? Jun 13 $3 −$3 -100%
Will the highest temperature in Denver be between 92-93°F on June 12? Jun 13 $3 −$3 -100%
Will the highest temperature in Munich be 24°C on June 7? Jun 13 $3 −$3 -100%
Will the highest temperature in Munich be 29°C on May 31? Jun 13 $3 −$3 -100%
Will the highest temperature in Tokyo be 23°C on June 8? Jun 13 $3 −$3 -100%
Will the highest temperature in Munich be 17°C on June 12? Jun 13 $3 −$3 -100%
Will the highest temperature in Paris be 25°C on May 31? Jun 13 $3 −$3 -100%
Will the highest temperature in Singapore be 33°C on June 2? Jun 13 $3 −$3 -100%
Will the highest temperature in Tokyo be 26°C on June 12? Jun 13 $3 −$3 -100%
Will the highest temperature in Seoul be 25°C on June 1? Jun 13 $3 −$3 -100%
Will the highest temperature in Tokyo be 21°C on June 3? Jun 13 $3 −$3 -100%
Will the highest temperature in Seoul be 29°C on June 2? Jun 13 $3 −$3 -100%
Will the highest temperature in Toronto be 27°C on June 8? Jun 13 $2 $0 +3%
Will the highest temperature in Denver be between 80-81°F on June 8? Jun 13 $2 $0 +3%
Will the highest temperature in Toronto be 27°C on June 7? Jun 13 $2 $0 +17%
Will the highest temperature in Munich be 26°C on June 8? Jun 13 $2 $0 +3%
Will the highest temperature in Tokyo be 22°C on June 8? Jun 13 $2 $0 +16%
Will the highest temperature in London be 22°C on June 7? Jun 13 $2 $0 +17%
Will the highest temperature in London be 20°C on June 12? Jun 13 $2 $0 +21%
Will the highest temperature in Munich be 21°C on June 1? Jun 13 $2 $0 +21%
Will the highest temperature in Tokyo be 23°C on June 11? Jun 13 $2 $0 +18%
Will the highest temperature in Toronto be 22°C on May 31? Jun 13 $2 $0 +24%
Will the highest temperature in London be 17°C on June 4? Jun 13 $2 $0 +24%
Will the highest temperature in Seattle be between 62-63°F on June 10? Jun 13 $2 $0 +24%
Will the highest temperature in Chicago be between 78-79°F on June 12? Jun 13 $2 $0 +21%
Will the highest temperature in Denver be between 78-79°F on June 8? Jun 13 $2 $0 +5%
Will the highest temperature in Toronto be 21°C on May 30? Jun 13 $2 $0 +24%
Will the highest temperature in Paris be 20°C on June 11? Jun 13 $2 +$1 +25%
Will the highest temperature in Munich be 14°C on June 12? Jun 13 $2 $0 +17%
Will the highest temperature in Munich be 16°C on June 10? Jun 13 $2 $0 +17%
Will the highest temperature in Tokyo be 23°C on June 5? Jun 13 $2 $0 +16%
Latest 50 closed markets. Resolution = Polymarket fact (redeemable/curPrice), not a timer.
weather 93% −$49
other 7% +$13
Share of volume and PnL by niche (realized + unrealized). Shows where the trader actually earns — and where they bleed.
Latest trades by this wallet
Marketsidepricesizewhen
Will the highest temperature in Paris be 28°C on June 15? BUY No 77¢ $2 59m
Will the highest temperature in Munich be 23°C on June 15? BUY No 84¢ $2 1h
Will the highest temperature in Tokyo be 23°C on June 15? BUY No 81¢ $3 1h
Will the highest temperature in London be 20°C on June 14? BUY No 84¢ $3 16h
Will the highest temperature in Chicago be between 70-71°F on June 14? BUY No 77¢ $2 17h
Will the highest temperature in Toronto be 23°C on June 14? BUY No 77¢ $2 17h
Will the highest temperature in Chicago be between 68-69°F on June 14? BUY No 85¢ $2 18h
Will the highest temperature in Buenos Aires be 12°C on June 14? BUY No 97¢ $2 18h
Will the highest temperature in Seoul be 25°C on June 14? BUY No 85¢ $2 18h
Will the highest temperature in Munich be 23°C on June 14? BUY No 82¢ $3 23h
Will the highest temperature in Paris be 24°C on June 14? BUY No 83¢ $2 24h
Will the highest temperature in Tokyo be 25°C on June 14? BUY No 84¢ $2 24h
Will the highest temperature in Tokyo be 28°C on June 13? BUY No 86¢ $2 26h
Will the highest temperature in Denver be between 82-83°F on June 13? BUY No 85¢ $2 32h
Will the highest temperature in Toronto be 28°C on June 13? BUY No 76¢ $2 32h
Will the highest temperature in London be 21°C on June 13? BUY No 79¢ $2 35h
Will the highest temperature in Chicago be between 82-83°F on June 13? BUY No 77¢ $2 40h
Will the highest temperature in Toronto be 30°C on June 13? BUY No 83¢ $2 40h
Will the highest temperature in Paris be 24°C on June 13? BUY No 84¢ $2 40h
Will the highest temperature in Tokyo be 25°C on June 13? BUY No 83¢ $2 46h
Will the highest temperature in Singapore be 31°C on June 13? BUY No 76¢ $3 47h
Will the highest temperature in Munich be 26°C on June 13? BUY No 84¢ $2 2d
Will the highest temperature in Munich be 14°C on June 12? BUY No 85¢ $2 2d
Will the highest temperature in Chicago be between 78-79°F on June 12? BUY No 82¢ $2 2d
Will the highest temperature in Seoul be 23°C on June 12? BUY No 86¢ $3 2d
Will the highest temperature in Toronto be 29°C on June 12? BUY No 85¢ $3 2d
Will the highest temperature in Buenos Aires be 15°C on June 12? BUY No 81¢ $2 2d
Will the highest temperature in Denver be between 92-93°F on June 12? BUY No 88¢ $3 2d
Will the highest temperature in Munich be 17°C on June 12? BUY No 77¢ $3 2d
Will the highest temperature in Munich be 15°C on June 12? BUY No 82¢ $2 2d
From the wallet’s activity history (Polymarket /activity), latest 30.
negative after costs — do not copy
break-even: the trader needs > 10.5% gross ROI/market for the copier to break even
chance a trade nets +70%
net ROI/market (all)-13.2%
timeframemarkets gross ROINET ROI gross WRNET WR net PnL (wtd)
≤7d 128 -9.0% -17.7% 75% 67% -18.2%
≤30d 323 -6.0% -15.0% 78% 69% -15.5%
≤90d 414 -4.1% -13.2% 79% 70% -13.8%
all 414 -4.1% -13.2% 79% 70% -13.8%
<b>gross</b> = as the leader traded. <b>net</b> = what WE’d keep after slippage (we enter later, price moved). Net ROI ≤ 0 → copying loses even if the leader profits.
turnover10.9 tr/day
realistic slip~9%
edge survives to0%
copier slippageNET ROINET WRnet PnL (wtd)
5% ideal ← realistic here -13.2% 70% -13.8%
10% -21.5% 39% -22.1%
15% -29.1% 2% -29.6%
20% -36.1% 1% -36.5%
Realistic slippage grows with turnover and leader size. If net ROI turns negative before the realistic slip — it’s a <b>trap</b>: leader profits, you lose.
✓ Calibrated vs Polymarket: our portfolio calc $134.90 · official $134.90 (match) · 3500 history records