Wallet analysis

2026-06-21T20:29:07+00:00

trader profile + honest PnL by actual resolution and NET edge after slippage — worth copying?

0.0
score
84 0x84b4…8702 crypto 541 markets active 0h ago coverage 109d
TRAPdo not copy crypto specialist
✗ negative after realistic slippage✗ 90-day edge negative — edge has died
Total PnL −$3,590 (-36%) realized −$3,585 · open −$5
Copy trade Watchlist View on Polymarket ↗
Gross ROI / mkt +2% what the leader earns
→−copy tax
Net edge / mkt -11% what you keep after slip
Net edge-11%after slip
Net WR51%break-even
Win rate55%293W / 243L
Drawdown100%max
Avg bet$18per market
Trades / day7.3pace
Fees−$10est.
Kalshi-fit90%portable
Net worth$15now

Equity curve

realized PnL
1W 1M 3M YTD 1Y All
2 days+$69
7 days−$3,690
14 days−$3,676
30 days−$3,676
Cards show realized PnL over calendar windows (by resolution date). The “Total PnL” chart appears for wallets we track daily.

Categories

share · PnL
crypto 57% +$117
other 32% −$2,827
sports 10% −$941
weather 0% $0
world 0% $0
tech 0% $0
Share of volume and PnL by niche (realized + unrealized). Shows where the trader actually earns — and where they bleed.

The copy-tax — evidence

gross is the leader · net is you

Net edge · by timeframe

gross → net
negative after costs — do not copy
break-even: the trader needs > 10.5% gross ROI/market for the copier to break even
chance a trade nets +51%
net ROI/market (all)-7.6%
timeframemarkets gross ROINET ROI gross WRNET WR net PnL (wtd)
≤7d 475 +0.6% -9.0% 53% 53% -45.0%
≤30d 480 +1.0% -8.7% 54% 53% -44.7%
≤90d 480 +1.0% -8.7% 54% 53% -44.7%
all 536 +2.1% -7.6% 55% 51% -43.3%
<b>gross</b> = as the leader traded. <b>net</b> = what WE’d keep after slippage (we enter later, price moved). Net ROI ≤ 0 → copying loses even if the leader profits.

Slippage survival

net ROI/WR at slip
turnover7.3 tr/day
realistic slip~7%
edge survives to0%
copier slippageNET ROINET WRnet PnL (wtd)
5% ideal ← realistic here -7.6% 51% -43.3%
10% -16.5% 50% -48.7%
15% -24.5% 49% -53.7%
20% -31.9% 48% -58.2%
Realistic slippage grows with turnover and leader size. If net ROI turns negative before the realistic slip — it’s a <b>trap</b>: leader profits, you lose.

Edge quality

honest signals — luck vs skill
Profit concentration
top 9% · top 2 17% broad-based profit
Edge freshness (90d)
90d ROI -39% edge died — 90d negative
Fragile wins
7% wins margin < slip solid win margins
Flat-copyable
equal-wt +2% · $-wt -37% works when copied flat
Big bets
big-bet WR —% no data
Persistence
early +3% → late +2% edge persists early→late
Add-ons / DCA
1.2 add-ons/market flat bettor — clean entries
Win / loss size
+$8 vs −$25 · ×0.32 wins small, loses big
Profit factor
×0.4 loses more than it wins
Copy size
≥ $50 mirror leader trades ≥ this size to copy only main ideas

Supporting detail

109d coverage
Net worth$15
Realized−$3,585
Unrealized−$5
Win rate (resolved)55%
Wins / losses293 / 243
Est. fees paid−$10
Open positions5
Markets (closed)536 / 541
History coverage109d
Avg bet$18
Trades / day7.3
Drawdown100%
Kalshi-fit90%

Ledger

positions · history · trades
Positions 5 History 536 Trades
Open positions — marked to current price, like Polymarket
Marketoutcome entrynow investedvalue unrealized PnL
Ethereum Up or Down - June 21, 4:15PM-4:20PM ET Up 54¢ 50¢ $7 $7 −$0 (-6%)
Ethereum Up or Down - June 21, 4:10PM-4:15PM ET Up 46¢ 50¢ $3 $3 +$0 (+10%)
Hyperliquid Up or Down - June 21, 3:40PM-3:45PM ET Down 51¢ 31¢ $4 $3 −$2 (-40%)
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 21, 4:15PM-4:30PM ET Up 53¢ 50¢ $3 $3 −$0 (-5%)
Hyperliquid Up or Down - June 21, 3:35PM-3:40PM ET Down 51¢ 0¢ $3 $0 −$3 (-99%)
Top-25 open positions by current value. Prices in cents = market-implied probability (50¢ = 50%). Plus 158 resolved losing bets — already counted in realized PnL, so not shown here.
Closed markets — PnL by actual resolution, newest first
MarketwheninvestedPnLROI
Ethereum Up or Down - June 21, 4:20PM-4:25PM ET Jun 21 $21 +$16 +77%
Dogecoin Up or Down - June 21, 4:00PM-4:15PM ET Jun 21 $3 +$2 +89%
Hyperliquid Up or Down - June 21, 3:45PM-3:50PM ET Jun 21 $5 +$4 +88%
BNB Up or Down - June 21, 3:30PM-3:45PM ET Jun 21 $3 +$2 +85%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 21, 3:15PM-3:30PM ET Jun 21 $3 +$3 +93%
Ethereum Up or Down - June 21, 3:15PM-3:30PM ET Jun 21 $3 +$2 +81%
Hyperliquid Up or Down - June 21, 3:10PM-3:15PM ET Jun 21 $3 +$2 +86%
Dogecoin Up or Down - June 21, 3:00PM-3:05PM ET Jun 21 $3 +$2 +86%
Ethereum Up or Down - June 21, 2:55PM-3:00PM ET Jun 21 $45 +$38 +84%
Ethereum Up or Down - June 21, 2:50PM-2:55PM ET Jun 21 $19 −$19 -97%
XRP Up or Down - June 21, 2:40PM-2:45PM ET Jun 21 $2 +$3 +146%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 21, 2:40PM-2:45PM ET Jun 21 $3 +$2 +86%
BNB Up or Down - June 21, 2:40PM-2:45PM ET Jun 21 $3 +$2 +70%
Ethereum Up or Down - June 21, 2:45PM-2:50PM ET Jun 21 $8 −$8 -97%
Ethereum Up or Down - June 21, 2:40PM-2:45PM ET Jun 21 $3 −$3 -97%
Ethereum Up or Down - June 21, 1:40PM-1:45PM ET Jun 21 $16 +$14 +88%
Dogecoin Up or Down - June 21, 1:40PM-1:45PM ET Jun 21 $14 +$13 +99%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 21, 1:35PM-1:40PM ET Jun 21 $8 +$7 +86%
Dogecoin Up or Down - June 21, 1:35PM-1:40PM ET Jun 21 $3 −$3 -97%
Ethereum Up or Down - June 21, 1:35PM-1:40PM ET Jun 21 $3 −$3 -97%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 21, 1:30PM-1:35PM ET Jun 21 $3 −$3 -97%
BNB Up or Down - June 21, 1:10PM-1:15PM ET Jun 21 $6 +$6 +105%
Dogecoin Up or Down - June 21, 1:05PM-1:10PM ET Jun 21 $8 +$7 +83%
Ethereum Up or Down - June 21, 12:55PM-1:00PM ET Jun 21 $3 +$2 +86%
BNB Up or Down - June 21, 1:00PM-1:05PM ET Jun 21 $3 −$3 -96%
Dogecoin Up or Down - June 21, 1:00PM-1:05PM ET Jun 21 $3 −$3 -97%
XRP Up or Down - June 21, 12:45PM-1:00PM ET Jun 21 $3 +$2 +84%
Ethereum Up or Down - June 21, 12:45PM-1:00PM ET Jun 21 $11 +$6 +58%
Ethereum Up or Down - June 21, 12:30PM-12:45PM ET Jun 21 $3 −$3 -97%
XRP Up or Down - June 21, 12:20PM-12:25PM ET Jun 21 $2 +$3 +140%
Dogecoin Up or Down - June 21, 12:20PM-12:25PM ET Jun 21 $1 +$4 +280%
Ethereum Up or Down - June 21, 12:20PM-12:25PM ET Jun 21 $8 +$9 +119%
Dogecoin Up or Down - June 21, 12:15PM-12:20PM ET Jun 21 $7 +$5 +83%
XRP Up or Down - June 21, 12:15PM-12:20PM ET Jun 21 $8 +$6 +79%
Ethereum Up or Down - June 21, 12:15PM-12:20PM ET Jun 21 $3 −$3 -97%
Dogecoin Up or Down - June 21, 12:10PM-12:15PM ET Jun 21 $1 −$1 -97%
XRP Up or Down - June 21, 12:10PM-12:15PM ET Jun 21 $3 −$3 -97%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 21, 11:45AM-12:00PM ET Jun 21 $12 +$7 +62%
Ethereum Up or Down - June 21, 11:30AM-11:45AM ET Jun 21 $3 +$2 +68%
Hyperliquid Up or Down - June 21, 11:30AM-11:45AM ET Jun 21 $3 +$2 +83%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 21, 11:30AM-11:45AM ET Jun 21 $3 −$3 -97%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 21, 11:10AM-11:15AM ET Jun 21 $3 +$3 +93%
Ethereum Up or Down - June 21, 11:10AM-11:15AM ET Jun 21 $3 +$2 +86%
Hyperliquid Up or Down - June 21, 11:05AM-11:10AM ET Jun 21 $2 +$2 +70%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 21, 10:20AM-10:25AM ET Jun 21 $3 +$2 +84%
Hyperliquid Up or Down - June 21, 10:05AM-10:10AM ET Jun 21 $6 +$6 +98%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 21, 10:00AM-10:05AM ET Jun 21 $3 +$2 +86%
Ethereum Up or Down - June 21, 10:00AM-10:05AM ET Jun 21 $3 +$3 +97%
XRP Up or Down - June 21, 10:00AM-10:05AM ET Jun 21 $2 +$2 +98%
Hyperliquid Up or Down - June 21, 10:00AM-10:05AM ET Jun 21 $2 −$2 -100%
Latest 50 closed markets. Resolution = Polymarket fact (redeemable/curPrice), not a timer.
Latest trades by this wallet
Marketsidepricesizewhen
Ethereum Up or Down - June 21, 4:20PM-4:25PM ET BUY Up 55¢ $21 9m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 21, 4:15PM-4:30PM ET BUY Up 53¢ $3 14m
Ethereum Up or Down - June 21, 4:15PM-4:20PM ET BUY Up 54¢ $7 14m
Ethereum Up or Down - June 21, 4:10PM-4:15PM ET BUY Up 46¢ $3 19m
Dogecoin Up or Down - June 21, 4:00PM-4:15PM ET BUY Down 51¢ $3 28m
Hyperliquid Up or Down - June 21, 3:45PM-3:50PM ET BUY Down 51¢ $5 43m
Hyperliquid Up or Down - June 21, 3:40PM-3:45PM ET BUY Down 51¢ $5 49m
Hyperliquid Up or Down - June 21, 3:35PM-3:40PM ET BUY Down 51¢ $3 54m
BNB Up or Down - June 21, 3:30PM-3:45PM ET BUY Down 52¢ $3 59m
Ethereum Up or Down - June 21, 3:15PM-3:30PM ET SELL Down 99¢ $6 1h
Ethereum Up or Down - June 21, 3:15PM-3:30PM ET BUY Down 53¢ $3 1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 21, 3:15PM-3:30PM ET BUY Down 50¢ $3 1h
Hyperliquid Up or Down - June 21, 3:10PM-3:15PM ET BUY Up 52¢ $3 1h
Dogecoin Up or Down - June 21, 3:00PM-3:05PM ET BUY Up 52¢ $3 1h
Ethereum Up or Down - June 21, 2:55PM-3:00PM ET SELL Down 99¢ $4 1h
Ethereum Up or Down - June 21, 2:55PM-3:00PM ET SELL Down 99¢ $11 1h
Ethereum Up or Down - June 21, 2:55PM-3:00PM ET SELL Down 99¢ $2 1h
Ethereum Up or Down - June 21, 2:55PM-3:00PM ET SELL Down 99¢ $5 1h
Ethereum Up or Down - June 21, 2:55PM-3:00PM ET SELL Down 99¢ $5 1h
Ethereum Up or Down - June 21, 2:55PM-3:00PM ET SELL Down 99¢ $5 1h
Ethereum Up or Down - June 21, 2:55PM-3:00PM ET SELL Down 99¢ $52 1h
Ethereum Up or Down - June 21, 2:55PM-3:00PM ET BUY Down 52¢ $45 1h
Ethereum Up or Down - June 21, 2:50PM-2:55PM ET BUY Down 52¢ $19 1h
Ethereum Up or Down - June 21, 2:45PM-2:50PM ET BUY Down 55¢ $8 1h
XRP Up or Down - June 21, 2:40PM-2:45PM ET BUY Down 39¢ $2 1h
BNB Up or Down - June 21, 2:40PM-2:45PM ET BUY Down 57¢ $3 1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 21, 2:40PM-2:45PM ET BUY Down 52¢ $3 1h
Ethereum Up or Down - June 21, 2:40PM-2:45PM ET BUY Down 54¢ $3 1h
Dogecoin Up or Down - June 21, 1:40PM-1:45PM ET BUY Up 50¢ $5 2h
Dogecoin Up or Down - June 21, 1:40PM-1:45PM ET BUY Up 50¢ $1 2h
From the wallet’s activity history (Polymarket /activity), latest 30.
≈ Vs Polymarket: our portfolio calc $14.90 · official $16.52 · 1080 history records