Wallet analysis

2026-06-13T13:32:06+00:00

trader profile + honest PnL by actual resolution and NET edge after slippage — worth copying?

84
0x84b1…66a4
weather · 1540 markets active 0h ago
0.0score
−$613 -1%
TOTAL PnL · realized −$578 · open −$36
avoidriskycopy
✗ TRAP weather specialist⚠ High turnover
Copy trade Watchlist View on Polymarket ↗
Net worth$1,358
Realized−$578
Unrealized−$36
Win rate (resolved)91%
Wins / losses1372 / 134
Est. fees paid−$4
Open positions34
Markets (closed)1506 / 1540
History coverage56d
Avg bet$38
Trades / day38.8
Drawdown100%
Kalshi-fit100%
Chart Positions 34 History 1506 Categories Trades Net edge Slippage
1W 1M 3M YTD 1Y All
2 days−$62
7 days−$20
14 days−$16
30 days−$79
Cards show realized PnL over calendar windows (by resolution date). The “Total PnL” chart appears for wallets we track daily.
Open positions — marked to current price, like Polymarket
Marketoutcome entrynow investedvalue unrealized PnL
Will the highest temperature in Tel Aviv be 31°C on June 13? No 96¢ 100¢ $46 $48 +$2 (+4%)
Will the highest temperature in London be 24°C on June 13? No 96¢ 99¢ $46 $48 +$2 (+3%)
Will the highest temperature in Hong Kong be 32°C on June 12? No 99¢ 100¢ $47 $48 +$1 (+1%)
Will the highest temperature in Beijing be 31°C on June 13? No 98¢ 100¢ $46 $47 +$1 (+2%)
Will the highest temperature in Singapore be 34°C on June 13? No 98¢ 100¢ $46 $47 +$1 (+2%)
Will the highest temperature in Busan be 31°C on June 13? No 98¢ 100¢ $46 $47 +$1 (+2%)
Will the highest temperature in Taipei be 26°C on June 13? No 98¢ 100¢ $46 $47 +$1 (+2%)
Will the highest temperature in Seoul be 30°C or higher on June 13? No 98¢ 100¢ $46 $47 +$1 (+2%)
Will the highest temperature in Shanghai be 24°C on June 13? No 99¢ 100¢ $46 $47 +$0 (+1%)
Will the highest temperature in Singapore be 34°C on June 9? No 98¢ 100¢ $46 $47 +$1 (+2%)
Will the highest temperature in Istanbul be 24°C or higher on June 13? No 99¢ 100¢ $46 $47 +$0 (+1%)
Will the highest temperature in Shenzhen be 27°C on June 13? No 99¢ 100¢ $46 $47 +$1 (+1%)
Will the highest temperature in Hong Kong be 33°C on June 13? No 99¢ 100¢ $46 $47 +$0 (+1%)
Will the highest temperature in New York City be between 84-85°F on June 13? No 99¢ 100¢ $46 $47 +$1 (+1%)
Will the highest temperature in Helsinki be 19°C on June 13? No 99¢ 100¢ $46 $46 +$0 (+1%)
Will the highest temperature in Ankara be 26°C on June 13? No 99¢ 100¢ $45 $46 +$1 (+1%)
Will the highest temperature in Wuhan be 25°C on June 13? No 96¢ 100¢ $44 $45 +$2 (+4%)
Will the highest temperature in Madrid be 36°C on June 13? No 99¢ 97¢ $46 $45 −$1 (-2%)
Will the highest temperature in Chicago be 78°F or higher on June 14? No 99¢ 98¢ $45 $45 −$0 (-1%)
Will the highest temperature in Cape Town be 19°C on June 13? No 99¢ 99¢ $45 $45 −$0 (-0%)
Will the highest temperature in Shanghai be 27°C on June 14? No 99¢ 99¢ $45 $45 −$0 (-0%)
Will the highest temperature in Atlanta be between 88-89°F on June 13? No 99¢ 99¢ $45 $45 −$0 (-0%)
Will the highest temperature in Hong Kong be 32°C on June 14? No 98¢ 97¢ $45 $45 −$1 (-1%)
Will the highest temperature in San Francisco be 69°F or below on June 13? No 99¢ 98¢ $45 $44 −$0 (-1%)
Will the highest temperature in Denver be between 74-75°F on June 13? No 99¢ 97¢ $45 $44 −$1 (-2%)
Top-25 open positions by current value. Prices in cents = market-implied probability (50¢ = 50%).
Closed markets — PnL by actual resolution, newest first
MarketwheninvestedPnLROI
Will the highest temperature in Wellington be 17°C on June 13? Jun 13 $6 $0 +2%
Will the highest temperature in Denver be between 94-95°F on June 12? Jun 13 $46 $0 +1%
Will the highest temperature in Ankara be 25°C on June 13? Jun 13 $38 −$17 -46%
Will the highest temperature in San Francisco be between 72-73°F on Ju Jun 13 $46 +$1 +2%
Will the highest temperature in Los Angeles be between 80-81°F on June Jun 13 $46 $0 +1%
Will the highest temperature in Dallas be between 96-97°F on June 12? Jun 13 $16 $0 +1%
Will the highest temperature in Chicago be between 84-85°F on June 12? Jun 13 $46 $0 +1%
Will the highest temperature in Austin be between 96-97°F on June 12? Jun 13 $16 $0 +1%
Will the highest temperature in New York City be between 90-91°F on Ju Jun 13 $46 +$1 +2%
Will the highest temperature in Toronto be 29°C on June 12? Jun 13 $46 +$1 +2%
Will the highest temperature in Wuhan be 24°C on June 13? Jun 13 $16 −$7 -43%
Will the highest temperature in Buenos Aires be 19°C or higher on June Jun 13 $46 +$1 +1%
Will the highest temperature in London be 19°C on June 12? Jun 12 $46 +$1 +3%
Will the highest temperature in Milan be 29°C on June 12? Jun 12 $43 $0 +1%
Will the highest temperature in Madrid be 36°C on June 12? Jun 12 $46 $0 +1%
Will the highest temperature in Cape Town be 14°C on June 12? Jun 12 $43 +$1 +3%
Will the highest temperature in Paris be 21°C on June 12? Jun 12 $24 $0 +1%
Will the highest temperature in Warsaw be 21°C on June 12? Jun 12 $46 +$2 +4%
Will the highest temperature in Ankara be 30°C on June 12? Jun 12 $46 +$1 +2%
Will the highest temperature in Tel Aviv be 31°C on June 12? Jun 12 $16 $0 +1%
Will the highest temperature in Helsinki be 16°C on June 12? Jun 12 $46 +$1 +2%
Will the highest temperature in Shenzhen be 33°C or higher on June 12? Jun 12 $13 $0 +3%
Will the highest temperature in Kuala Lumpur be 36°C or higher on June Jun 12 $47 +$1 +1%
Will the highest temperature in Taipei be 30°C on June 12? Jun 12 $46 +$1 +3%
Will the highest temperature in Wuhan be 25°C on June 12? Jun 12 $46 $0 +1%
Will the highest temperature in Singapore be 34°C on June 12? Jun 12 $47 +$1 +1%
Will the highest temperature in Busan be 31°C on June 12? Jun 12 $46 +$1 +1%
Will the highest temperature in Sao Paulo be 19°C on June 12? Jun 12 $46 −$23 -50%
Will the highest temperature in San Francisco be between 82-83°F on Ju Jun 12 $46 $0 +1%
Will the highest temperature in Seattle be between 76-77°F on June 11? Jun 12 $46 +$1 +2%
Will the highest temperature in Los Angeles be between 78-79°F on June Jun 12 $41 +$2 +5%
Will the highest temperature in Dallas be between 98-99°F on June 11? Jun 12 $47 $0 +1%
Will the highest temperature in Chicago be between 80-81°F on June 11? Jun 12 $47 +$1 +3%
Will the highest temperature in Panama City be 34°C on June 11? Jun 12 $47 +$1 +3%
Will the highest temperature in Beijing be 31°C on June 12? Jun 12 $6 −$3 -47%
Will the highest temperature in Toronto be 33°C on June 11? Jun 12 $29 +$1 +2%
Will the highest temperature in Buenos Aires be 15°C on June 11? Jun 12 $47 $0 +1%
Will the highest temperature in Hong Kong be 32°C on June 11? Jun 12 $15 $0 +2%
Will the highest temperature in London be 14°C on June 11? Jun 11 $26 $0 +1%
Will the highest temperature in Munich be 18°C on June 11? Jun 11 $45 +$1 +3%
Will the highest temperature in Cape Town be 15°C on June 11? Jun 11 $47 +$2 +4%
Will the highest temperature in Warsaw be 18°C on June 11? Jun 11 $12 $0 +1%
Will the highest temperature in Paris be 21°C on June 11? Jun 11 $18 $0 +1%
Will the highest temperature in Ankara be 29°C on June 11? Jun 11 $8 $0 +2%
Will the highest temperature in Lucknow be 31°C on June 12? Jun 11 $5 $0 -0%
Will the highest temperature in Wellington be 16°C on June 12? Jun 11 $5 $0 -0%
Will the highest temperature in Lucknow be 33°C or below on June 11? Jun 11 $47 +$2 +4%
Will the highest temperature in Sao Paulo be 19°C on June 11? Jun 11 $47 −$28 -60%
Will the highest temperature in Shenzhen be 33°C on June 11? Jun 11 $47 +$1 +1%
Will the highest temperature in Kuala Lumpur be 35°C on June 11? Jun 11 $47 +$1 +1%
Latest 50 closed markets. Resolution = Polymarket fact (redeemable/curPrice), not a timer.
weather 94% −$478
sports 6% −$135
Share of volume and PnL by niche (realized + unrealized). Shows where the trader actually earns — and where they bleed.
Latest trades by this wallet
Marketsidepricesizewhen
Will the highest temperature in San Francisco be 69°F or below on June BUY No 99¢ $45 5m
Will the highest temperature in Atlanta be between 88-89°F on June 13? BUY No 99¢ $45 17m
Will the highest temperature in Austin be between 88-89°F on June 13? BUY No 99¢ $30 48m
Will the highest temperature in Tokyo be 29°C on June 14? BUY No 99¢ $8 1h
Will the highest temperature in Buenos Aires be 12°C on June 13? BUY No 98¢ $42 1h
Will the highest temperature in Los Angeles be between 76-77°F on June BUY No 98¢ $10 2h
Will the highest temperature in Shanghai be 27°C on June 14? BUY No 99¢ $45 2h
Will the highest temperature in Denver be between 74-75°F on June 13? BUY No 99¢ $45 3h
Will the highest temperature in Cape Town be 19°C on June 13? BUY No 99¢ $45 3h
Will the highest temperature in Hong Kong be 32°C on June 14? BUY No 98¢ $45 4h
Will the highest temperature in Ankara be 26°C on June 13? BUY No 99¢ $45 4h
Will the highest temperature in Ankara be 25°C on June 13? SELL No 54¢ $20 4h
Will the highest temperature in Wuhan be 25°C on June 13? BUY No 96¢ $44 5h
Will the highest temperature in Chicago be 78°F or higher on June 14? BUY No 99¢ $45 5h
Will the highest temperature in Moscow be 31°C on June 13? BUY No 97¢ $1 5h
Will the highest temperature in Helsinki be 19°C on June 13? BUY No 99¢ $46 6h
Will the highest temperature in London be 24°C on June 13? BUY No 96¢ $3 7h
Will the highest temperature in London be 24°C on June 13? BUY No 96¢ $25 7h
Will the highest temperature in London be 24°C on June 13? BUY No 96¢ $18 7h
Will the highest temperature in Madrid be 36°C on June 13? BUY No 99¢ $46 9h
Will the highest temperature in Ankara be 25°C on June 13? BUY No 99¢ $38 9h
Will the highest temperature in Wuhan be 24°C on June 13? SELL No 57¢ $9 10h
Will the highest temperature in Tel Aviv be 31°C on June 13? BUY No 96¢ $46 10h
Will the highest temperature in Seoul be 30°C or higher on June 13? BUY No 98¢ $46 10h
Will the highest temperature in New York City be between 84-85°F on Ju BUY No 99¢ $46 10h
Will the highest temperature in Chongqing be 30°C on June 13? BUY No 99¢ $35 10h
Will the highest temperature in Busan be 31°C on June 13? BUY No 98¢ $12 12h
Will the highest temperature in Busan be 31°C on June 13? BUY No 98¢ $34 12h
Will the highest temperature in Shenzhen be 27°C on June 13? BUY No 99¢ $46 12h
Will the highest temperature in Denver be between 94-95°F on June 12? BUY No 99¢ $30 14h
From the wallet’s activity history (Polymarket /activity), latest 30.
negative after costs — do not copy
break-even: the trader needs > 10.5% gross ROI/market for the copier to break even
chance a trade nets +1%
net ROI/market (all)-10.1%
timeframemarkets gross ROINET ROI gross WRNET WR net PnL (wtd)
≤7d 218 -0.5% -10.0% 92% 0% -9.8%
≤30d 723 -0.2% -9.7% 95% 1% -9.8%
≤90d 1506 -0.6% -10.1% 91% 1% -10.4%
all 1506 -0.6% -10.1% 91% 1% -10.4%
<b>gross</b> = as the leader traded. <b>net</b> = what WE’d keep after slippage (we enter later, price moved). Net ROI ≤ 0 → copying loses even if the leader profits.
turnover38.8 tr/day
realistic slip~13%
edge survives to0%
copier slippageNET ROINET WRnet PnL (wtd)
5% ideal -10.1% 1% -10.4%
10% ← realistic here -18.7% 0% -18.9%
15% -26.5% 0% -26.8%
20% -33.7% 0% -34.0%
Realistic slippage grows with turnover and leader size. If net ROI turns negative before the realistic slip — it’s a <b>trap</b>: leader profits, you lose.
✓ Calibrated vs Polymarket: our portfolio calc $1,357.53 · official $1,357.53 (match) · 3500 history records