Wallet analysis

2026-06-17T21:43:50+00:00

trader profile + honest PnL by actual resolution and NET edge after slippage — worth copying?

0.0
score
84 0x84ab…eefd sports 291 markets active 3h ago coverage 99d
TRAPdo not copy sports specialist
✗ negative after realistic slippage✗ 90-day edge negative — edge has died
Total PnL −$291 (-8%) realized −$294 · open +$3
Gross ROI / mkt -17% what the leader earns
−copy tax
Net edge / mkt -28% what you keep after slip
Net edge-28%after slip
Net WR34%break-even
Win rate35%96W / 180L
Drawdown100%max
Avg bet$13per market
Trades / day6.3pace
Fees−$57est.
Kalshi-fit74%portable
Net worth$24now

Equity curve

realized PnL
1W 1M 3M YTD 1Y All
2 days−$98
7 days−$91
14 days−$156
30 days−$352
Cards show realized PnL over calendar windows (by resolution date). The “Total PnL” chart appears for wallets we track daily.

Categories

share · PnL
sports 73% −$356
other 22% −$20
crypto 5% −$33
culture 0% +$8
Share of volume and PnL by niche (realized + unrealized). Shows where the trader actually earns — and where they bleed.

The copy-tax — evidence

gross is the leader · net is you

Net edge · by timeframe

gross → net
negative after costs — do not copy
break-even: the trader needs > 10.5% gross ROI/market for the copier to break even
chance a trade nets +34%
net ROI/market (all)-24.7%
timeframemarkets gross ROINET ROI gross WRNET WR net PnL (wtd)
≤7d 45 +5.2% -4.8% 40% 40% -26.5%
≤30d 203 -14.7% -22.8% 33% 33% -23.0%
≤90d 275 -16.9% -24.8% 35% 34% -20.7%
all 276 -16.7% -24.7% 35% 34% -20.7%
<b>gross</b> = as the leader traded. <b>net</b> = what WE’d keep after slippage (we enter later, price moved). Net ROI ≤ 0 → copying loses even if the leader profits.

Slippage survival

net ROI/WR at slip
turnover6.3 tr/day
realistic slip~7%
edge survives to0%
copier slippageNET ROINET WRnet PnL (wtd)
5% ideal ← realistic here -24.7% 34% -20.7%
10% -31.9% 32% -28.3%
15% -38.5% 30% -35.2%
20% -44.5% 26% -41.6%
Realistic slippage grows with turnover and leader size. If net ROI turns negative before the realistic slip — it’s a <b>trap</b>: leader profits, you lose.

Edge quality

honest signals — luck vs skill
Profit concentration
top 7% · top 2 12% broad-based profit
Edge freshness (90d)
90d ROI -13% edge died — 90d negative
Fragile wins
2% wins margin < slip solid win margins
Flat-copyable
equal-wt -17% · $-wt -12% works when copied flat
Big bets
big-bet WR —% no data
Persistence
early -18% → late -15% mixed
Add-ons / DCA
1.6 add-ons/market adds to positions
Win / loss size
+$14 vs −$10 · ×1.44 wins ≈ losses
Profit factor
×0.77 loses more than it wins
Copy size
≥ $50 mirror leader trades ≥ this size to copy only main ideas

Supporting detail

99d coverage
Net worth$24
Realized−$294
Unrealized+$3
Win rate (resolved)35%
Wins / losses96 / 180
Est. fees paid−$57
Open positions3
Markets (closed)276 / 291
History coverage99d
Avg bet$13
Trades / day6.3
Drawdown100%
Kalshi-fit74%

Ledger

positions · history · trades
Positions 3 History 276 Trades
Open positions — marked to current price, like Polymarket
Marketoutcome entrynow investedvalue unrealized PnL
Will England win on 2026-06-17? Yes 58¢ 84¢ $10 $15 +$5 (+44%)
Will Ghana win on 2026-06-17? Yes 42¢ 40¢ $5 $5 −$0 (-4%)
Will Brazil win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Yes $5 $4 −$1 (-21%)
Top-25 open positions by current value. Prices in cents = market-implied probability (50¢ = 50%). Plus 154 resolved losing bets — already counted in realized PnL, so not shown here.
Closed markets — PnL by actual resolution, newest first
MarketwheninvestedPnLROI
Cristiano Ronaldo: 1+ assists Jun 17 $3 −$3 -98%
Will Portugal win on 2026-06-17? Jun 17 $60 −$60 -99%
Portugal to win the second half? Jun 17 $19 −$19 -99%
Exact Score: Portugal 3 - 0 DR Congo? Jun 17 $4 −$4 -98%
Exact Score: Portugal 3 - 1 DR Congo? Jun 17 $2 −$2 -97%
Portugal leading at halftime? Jun 17 $8 −$8 -99%
Will France win on 2026-06-16? AND Will Argentina win on 2026-06-16? A Jun 17 $32 +$51 +163%
Argentina vs. Algeria: Both Teams to Score Jun 17 $16 −$16 -98%
Will France win on 2026-06-16? Jun 16 $16 +$10 +62%
Exact Score: France 2 - 0 Senegal? Jun 16 $3 +$13 +435%
Exact Score: France 2 - 1 Senegal? Jun 16 $4 −$1 -28%
Will Senegal win on 2026-06-16? Jun 16 $3 $0 +17%
France leading at halftime? Jun 16 $10 −$10 -98%
Will New Zealand win on 2026-06-15? Jun 16 $47 −$30 -64%
Will IR Iran vs. New Zealand end in a draw? Jun 16 $6 +$3 +46%
Will Uruguay win on 2026-06-15? Jun 15 $23 −$23 -99%
Dota 2: Power Rangers vs Noir Esports (BO3) - European Pro League Grou Jun 15 $3 +$4 +131%
Will Netherlands win on 2026-06-14? Jun 14 $10 −$10 -98%
Knicks vs. Spurs Jun 14 $5 +$9 +172%
Brazil vs. Morocco: 1st Half O/U 4.5 Total Corners Jun 13 $10 −$10 -98%
Brazil vs. Morocco: Both Teams to Score in Second Half Jun 13 $5 −$5 -98%
Exact Score: Brazil 2 - 1 Morocco? Jun 13 $5 −$5 -98%
Exact Score: Brazil 2 - 0 Morocco? Jun 13 $5 −$5 -98%
Will Brazil win on 2026-06-13? Jun 13 $30 −$30 -99%
Will Paraguay win on 2026-06-12? Jun 13 $6 −$6 -98%
Exact Score: United States 3 - 1 Paraguay? Jun 13 $6 +$13 +242%
Exact Score: United States 3 - 2 Paraguay? Jun 13 $3 −$3 -97%
United States vs. Paraguay: Both Teams to Score in First Half Jun 12 $4 −$4 -98%
Will Bosnia and Herzegovina win on 2026-06-12? Jun 12 $11 +$7 +63%
Will Canada vs. Bosnia and Herzegovina end in a draw? Jun 12 $5 +$5 +97%
Bosnia-Herzegovina leading at halftime? Jun 12 $2 +$8 +408%
Stuttgart Open (Doubles): Glinka/Sakellaridis vs Bublik/Kyrgios Jun 12 $23 +$12 +53%
Stuttgart Open: Mattia Bellucci vs Taylor Fritz Jun 12 $12 +$12 +97%
Libema Open: Felix Auger-Aliassime vs Kamil Majchrzak Jun 12 $6 −$6 -98%
Libema Open: Daniil Medvedev vs Thijs Boogaard Jun 12 $8 $0 -1%
Libema Open: Nuno Borges vs Marin Cilic Jun 12 $6 +$6 +95%
Stuttgart Open: Giovanni Mpetshi Perricard vs Alexander Bublik Jun 12 $10 −$10 -98%
Will Curaçao win on 2026-06-14? Jun 12 $3 −$3 -97%
Will Korea Republic vs. Czechia end in a draw? Jun 12 $9 +$10 +108%
Will Czechia win on 2026-06-11? Jun 12 $20 +$18 +88%
Will the Bank of Brazil decrease the Selic rate after June 2026 meetin Jun 11 $7 +$7 +96%
No change in the Selic rate after Bank of Brazil’s June 2026 meeting? Jun 11 $8 +$9 +111%
Stuttgart Open: Martin Landaluce vs Taylor Fritz Jun 11 $5 −$5 -98%
Ilkley: Darja Vidmanova vs Lucrezia Stefanini Jun 11 $12 −$1 -8%
Stuttgart Open: Jiri Lehecka vs James Duckworth Jun 11 $10 −$10 -98%
Tucuman: Nick Hardt vs Bruno Fernandez Jun 10 $5 −$5 -98%
Dota 2: VP.Prodigy vs MODUS (BO3) - The International Europe Open Qual Jun 10 $10 +$17 +168%
Dota 2: L1ga Team vs Zero Tenacity (BO3) - The International Europe Op Jun 10 $20 −$10 -49%
Bratislava: Vitaliy Sachko vs Thanasi Kokkinakis Jun 10 $15 −$15 -99%
Ilkley: Billy Harris vs Clement Chidekh Jun 09 $8 +$9 +109%
Latest 50 closed markets. Resolution = Polymarket fact (redeemable/curPrice), not a timer.
Latest trades by this wallet
Marketsidepricesizewhen
Will England win on 2026-06-17? BUY Yes 58¢ $11 2h
Will Ghana win on 2026-06-17? AND Will England win on 2026-06-17? BUY 27¢ $31 2h
Will Ghana win on 2026-06-17? BUY Yes 42¢ $5 3h
Cristiano Ronaldo: 1+ assists BUY Yes 19¢ $3 3h
Will Portugal win on 2026-06-17? BUY Yes 64¢ $20 3h
Portugal to win the second half? BUY Yes 70¢ $19 4h
Portugal vs. DR Congo: O/U 2.5 AND Will Portugal win on 2026-06-17? BUY 51¢ $24 6h
Exact Score: Portugal 3 - 0 DR Congo? BUY Yes 13¢ $4 7h
Exact Score: Portugal 3 - 1 DR Congo? BUY Yes $2 7h
Portugal leading at halftime? BUY Yes 58¢ $8 9h
Will Portugal win on 2026-06-17? BUY Yes 77¢ $40 9h
Will Ghana vs. Panama end in a draw? AND Will Portugal win on 2026-06- BUY $5 11h
Will Ghana win on 2026-06-17? AND Will Portugal win on 2026-06-17? AND BUY 20¢ $8 11h
Argentina vs. Algeria: Both Teams to Score BUY Yes 43¢ $16 19h
Exact Score: France 2 - 0 Senegal? SELL Yes 61¢ $16 24h
Exact Score: France 2 - 1 Senegal? SELL Yes $3 24h
Will France win on 2026-06-16? BUY Yes 61¢ $3 26h
Will France win on 2026-06-16? BUY Yes 61¢ $13 26h
Will Senegal win on 2026-06-16? SELL Yes 16¢ $3 26h
Exact Score: France 2 - 1 Senegal? BUY Yes 12¢ $4 26h
Exact Score: France 2 - 0 Senegal? BUY Yes 11¢ $3 26h
France leading at halftime? BUY Yes 38¢ $10 26h
Will France win on 2026-06-16? AND Will Argentina win on 2026-06-16? A BUY 37¢ $19 42h
Will France vs. Senegal end in a draw? AND Will Argentina win on 2026- BUY 12¢ $9 42h
Will Senegal win on 2026-06-16? BUY Yes 13¢ $3 42h
Will France win on 2026-06-16? AND Will Argentina win on 2026-06-16? A BUY 38¢ $12 42h
Will New Zealand win on 2026-06-15? BUY Yes 17¢ $4 43h
Will IR Iran vs. New Zealand end in a draw? SELL Yes 47¢ $9 43h
Will IR Iran vs. New Zealand end in a draw? BUY Yes 31¢ $6 43h
Will New Zealand win on 2026-06-15? SELL Yes 56¢ $16 43h
From the wallet’s activity history (Polymarket /activity), latest 30.
Vs Polymarket: our portfolio calc $23.81 · official $53.81 · 653 history records