Wallet analysis

2026-06-16T09:26:19+00:00

trader profile + honest PnL by actual resolution and NET edge after slippage — worth copying?

0.0
score
84 0x84a9…dbc4 crypto 824 markets active 1h ago coverage 26d ⚠
BOTnot copyable crypto specialistFading edge⚠ High turnover⚠ Covers last 25d onlyP/L from Polymarket (history capped)
✗ bot/MM pace (90 trades/day) — uncopyable✗ on-chain reconstruction ≠ official P&L (longshot/capped history)✗ negative after realistic slippage
Total PnL +$4,398 (+48%) realized +$4,400 · open −$2
Copy trade Watchlist View on Polymarket ↗
Gross ROI / mkt +2% what the leader earns
→−copy tax
Net edge / mkt -21% what you keep after slip
Net edge-21%after slip
Net WR41%break-even
Win rate60%497W / 326L
Drawdown100%max
Avg bet$11per market
Trades / day89.9pace
Fees−$1est.
Kalshi-fit100%portable
Net worth$25now

Equity curve

realized PnL
Not enough resolved history to chart — analysis covers only 26d (hyperactive wallet — we see only the tail of its trades). A “Total PnL” curve will appear once daily tracking accumulates.

Categories

share · PnL
crypto 98% +$3
weather 1% −$23
sports 1% +$55
tech 0% $0
other 0% −$3
Share of volume and PnL by niche (realized + unrealized). Shows where the trader actually earns — and where they bleed.

The copy-tax — evidence

gross is the leader · net is you

Net edge · by timeframe

gross → net
uncopyable — bot pace (90 trades/day)
break-even: the trader needs > 10.5% gross ROI/market for the copier to break even
chance a trade nets +41%
net ROI/market (all)-7.5%
timeframemarkets gross ROINET ROI gross WRNET WR net PnL (wtd)
≤7d 194 +8.0% -2.3% 60% 48% -9.8%
≤30d 823 +2.2% -7.5% 60% 41% -9.2%
≤90d 823 +2.2% -7.5% 60% 41% -9.2%
all 823 +2.2% -7.5% 60% 41% -9.2%
<b>gross</b> = as the leader traded. <b>net</b> = what WE’d keep after slippage (we enter later, price moved). Net ROI ≤ 0 → copying loses even if the leader profits.

Slippage survival

net ROI/WR at slip
turnover89.9 tr/day
realistic slip~13%
edge survives to0%
copier slippageNET ROINET WRnet PnL (wtd)
5% ideal -7.5% 41% -9.2%
10% ← realistic here -16.4% 32% -17.9%
15% -24.4% 24% -25.8%
20% -31.8% 16% -33.1%
Realistic slippage grows with turnover and leader size. If net ROI turns negative before the realistic slip — it’s a <b>trap</b>: leader profits, you lose.

Edge quality

honest signals — luck vs skill
Profit concentration
top 3% · top 2 5% broad-based profit
Edge freshness (90d)
90d ROI +0% 90d near zero / fading
Fragile wins
31% wins margin < slip solid win margins
Flat-copyable
equal-wt +2% · $-wt +0% works when copied flat
Big bets
big-bet WR —% no data
Persistence
early +6% → late -1% edge faded
Add-ons / DCA
2.7 add-ons/market adds to positions
Win / loss size
+$4 vs −$6 · ×0.67 wins small, loses big
Profit factor
×1.02 profit barely above losses
Copy size
≥ $50 mirror leader trades ≥ this size to copy only main ideas

Supporting detail

26d coverage
Net worth$25
Realized+$4,400
Unrealized−$2
Win rate (resolved)60%
Wins / losses497 / 326
Est. fees paid−$1
Open positions2
Markets (closed)823 / 824
History coverage26d ⚠
Avg bet$11
Trades / day89.9
Drawdown100%
Kalshi-fit100%

Ledger

positions · history · trades
Positions 2 History 823 Trades
Open positions — marked to current price, like Polymarket
Marketoutcome entrynow investedvalue unrealized PnL
Will Satoshi move any Bitcoin in 2026? No 93¢ 93¢ $25 $25 +$0 (+0%)
Will Matt Mahan win the California Governor Election in 2026? Yes 12¢ 0¢ $2 $0 −$2 (-99%)
Top-25 open positions by current value. Prices in cents = market-implied probability (50¢ = 50%).
Closed markets — PnL by actual resolution, newest first
MarketwheninvestedPnLROI
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 4:30AM-4:35AM ET Jun 16 $26 +$4 +15%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 4:20AM-4:25AM ET Jun 16 $2 +$8 +347%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 4:15AM-4:20AM ET Jun 16 $7 +$3 +39%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 4:00AM-4:05AM ET Jun 16 $4 −$4 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 3:55AM-4:00AM ET Jun 16 $12 +$3 +22%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 3:45AM-3:50AM ET Jun 16 $8 +$2 +24%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 3:40AM-3:45AM ET Jun 16 $14 −$4 -27%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 3:35AM-3:40AM ET Jun 16 $6 $0 -9%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 3:10AM-3:15AM ET Jun 16 $2 −$2 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 2:30AM-2:35AM ET Jun 16 $6 +$11 +206%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 2:20AM-2:25AM ET Jun 16 $25 +$13 +51%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 2:10AM-2:15AM ET Jun 16 $18 +$7 +39%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 2:05AM-2:10AM ET Jun 16 $17 $0 +1%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 1:55AM-2:00AM ET Jun 16 $7 $0 +4%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 1:50AM-1:55AM ET Jun 16 $14 $0 +1%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 11:25PM-11:30PM ET Jun 16 $25 $0 -0%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 10:05PM-10:10PM ET Jun 16 $17 −$17 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 9:50PM-9:55PM ET Jun 16 $14 −$14 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 9:35PM-9:40PM ET Jun 16 $7 +$2 +33%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 9:25PM-9:30PM ET Jun 16 $5 +$3 +69%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 9:15PM-9:20PM ET Jun 16 $1 +$13 +1063%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 8:30PM-8:35PM ET Jun 16 $25 $0 +1%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 8:25PM-8:30PM ET Jun 16 $10 $0 -0%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 8:20PM-8:25PM ET Jun 16 $11 $0 -0%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 8:10PM-8:15PM ET Jun 16 $26 −$26 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 2:50AM-2:55AM ET Jun 15 $2 −$2 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 2:30AM-2:35AM ET Jun 15 $25 $0 +0%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 2:05AM-2:10AM ET Jun 15 $18 −$6 -34%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 1:05AM-1:10AM ET Jun 15 $2 −$2 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 12:50AM-12:55AM ET Jun 15 $19 +$10 +51%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 12:45AM-12:50AM ET Jun 15 $26 +$11 +44%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 12:40AM-12:45AM ET Jun 15 $13 −$13 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 14, 11:00PM-11:05PM ET Jun 15 $26 −$13 -49%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 14, 10:55PM-11:00PM ET Jun 15 $14 −$14 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 14, 10:45PM-10:50PM ET Jun 15 $25 $0 +1%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 14, 10:00PM-10:05PM ET Jun 15 $26 −$26 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 14, 9:45PM-9:50PM ET Jun 15 $25 +$2 +9%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 14, 8:45PM-8:50PM ET Jun 15 $25 −$3 -14%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 14, 8:40PM-8:45PM ET Jun 15 $23 −$7 -32%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 14, 10:20AM-10:25AM ET Jun 14 $26 −$10 -38%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 14, 10:15AM-10:20AM ET Jun 14 $26 −$9 -33%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 14, 10:10AM-10:15AM ET Jun 14 $23 +$8 +38%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 14, 10:00AM-10:05AM ET Jun 14 $16 −$2 -13%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 14, 9:55AM-10:00AM ET Jun 14 $3 −$3 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 14, 9:50AM-9:55AM ET Jun 14 $20 −$15 -78%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 14, 9:45AM-9:50AM ET Jun 14 $11 −$1 -12%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 14, 9:30AM-9:35AM ET Jun 14 $13 +$2 +12%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 14, 9:25AM-9:30AM ET Jun 14 $25 +$2 +8%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 14, 9:20AM-9:25AM ET Jun 14 $26 +$14 +53%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 14, 9:10AM-9:15AM ET Jun 14 $26 −$13 -52%
Latest 50 closed markets. Resolution = Polymarket fact (redeemable/curPrice), not a timer.
Latest trades by this wallet
Marketsidepricesizewhen
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 4:30AM-4:35AM ET BUY Down 53¢ $10 56m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 4:30AM-4:35AM ET BUY Up 50¢ $16 57m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 4:20AM-4:25AM ET BUY Up 21¢ $2 1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 4:15AM-4:20AM ET BUY Up 70¢ $7 1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 4:00AM-4:05AM ET BUY Up 9¢ $4 1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 3:55AM-4:00AM ET BUY Up 81¢ $3 1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 3:55AM-4:00AM ET BUY Up 81¢ $1 1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 3:55AM-4:00AM ET BUY Up 81¢ $3 1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 3:55AM-4:00AM ET BUY Down 15¢ $1 1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 3:55AM-4:00AM ET BUY Up 57¢ $2 1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 3:55AM-4:00AM ET BUY Up 58¢ $1 1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 3:45AM-3:50AM ET BUY Down 5¢ $2 1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 3:45AM-3:50AM ET BUY Up 50¢ $2 1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 3:45AM-3:50AM ET BUY Up 56¢ $3 1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 3:40AM-3:45AM ET BUY Down 69¢ $7 1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 3:40AM-3:45AM ET BUY Up 43¢ $4 1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 3:40AM-3:45AM ET BUY Up 43¢ $2 1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 3:35AM-3:40AM ET BUY Down 56¢ $3 1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 3:35AM-3:40AM ET BUY Up 51¢ $3 1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 3:10AM-3:15AM ET BUY Up 54¢ $2 2h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 2:30AM-2:35AM ET BUY Up 9¢ $1 2h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 2:30AM-2:35AM ET BUY Down 75¢ $2 2h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 2:30AM-2:35AM ET BUY Up 53¢ $3 2h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 2:20AM-2:25AM ET BUY Up 67¢ $3 3h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 2:20AM-2:25AM ET BUY Up 67¢ $2 3h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 2:20AM-2:25AM ET BUY Up 67¢ $1 3h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 2:20AM-2:25AM ET BUY Up 67¢ $2 3h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 2:20AM-2:25AM ET BUY Up 69¢ $1 3h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 2:20AM-2:25AM ET BUY Up 69¢ $1 3h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 2:20AM-2:25AM ET BUY Up 69¢ $6 3h
From the wallet’s activity history (Polymarket /activity), latest 30.
✓ Calibrated vs Polymarket: our portfolio calc $25.03 · official $25.03 (match) · 3500 history records