Wallet analysis

2026-06-15T11:24:23+00:00

trader profile + honest PnL by actual resolution and NET edge after slippage — worth copying?

0.0
score
84 0x84a7…21ab other 132 markets active 1h ago coverage 36d
TRAPdo not copy Fading edge
✗ negative after realistic slippage✗ 90-day edge negative — edge has died
Total PnL −$230 (-14%) realized −$222 · open −$8
Copy trade Watchlist View on Polymarket ↗
Gross ROI / mkt -3% what the leader earns
→−copy tax
Net edge / mkt -16% what you keep after slip
Net edge-16%after slip
Net WR48%break-even
Win rate55%66W / 55L
Drawdown100%max
Avg bet$13per market
Trades / day4.9pace
Fees−$6est.
Kalshi-fit52%portable
Net worth$82now

Equity curve

realized PnL
1W 1M 3M YTD 1Y All
2 days−$125
7 days−$44
14 days−$468
30 days−$247
Cards show realized PnL over calendar windows (by resolution date). The “Total PnL” chart appears for wallets we track daily.

Categories

share · PnL
other 61% −$342
sports 29% +$136
crypto 8% −$44
politics 1% −$4
world 1% $0
Share of volume and PnL by niche (realized + unrealized). Shows where the trader actually earns — and where they bleed.

The copy-tax — evidence

gross is the leader · net is you

Net edge · by timeframe

gross → net
negative after costs — do not copy
break-even: the trader needs > 10.5% gross ROI/market for the copier to break even
chance a trade nets +48%
net ROI/market (all)-12.5%
timeframemarkets gross ROINET ROI gross WRNET WR net PnL (wtd)
≤7d 30 -12.2% -20.6% 57% 53% -18.5%
≤30d 119 -3.7% -12.9% 54% 47% -24.1%
≤90d 121 -3.3% -12.5% 55% 48% -23.9%
all 121 -3.3% -12.5% 55% 48% -23.9%
<b>gross</b> = as the leader traded. <b>net</b> = what WE’d keep after slippage (we enter later, price moved). Net ROI ≤ 0 → copying loses even if the leader profits.

Slippage survival

net ROI/WR at slip
turnover4.9 tr/day
realistic slip~7%
edge survives to0%
copier slippageNET ROINET WRnet PnL (wtd)
5% ideal ← realistic here -12.5% 48% -23.9%
10% -20.9% 37% -31.2%
15% -28.5% 31% -37.8%
20% -35.5% 23% -43.9%
Realistic slippage grows with turnover and leader size. If net ROI turns negative before the realistic slip — it’s a <b>trap</b>: leader profits, you lose.

Edge quality

honest signals — luck vs skill
Profit concentration
top 20% · top 2 31% broad-based profit
Edge freshness (90d)
90d ROI -16% edge died — 90d negative
Fragile wins
12% wins margin < slip solid win margins
Flat-copyable
equal-wt -3% · $-wt -16% works when copied flat
Big bets
big-bet WR —% no data
Persistence
early +13% → late -20% edge faded
Add-ons / DCA
1.1 add-ons/market flat bettor — clean entries
Win / loss size
+$7 vs −$12 · ×0.53 wins small, loses big
Profit factor
×0.64 loses more than it wins
Copy size
≥ $50 mirror leader trades ≥ this size to copy only main ideas

Supporting detail

36d coverage
Net worth$82
Realized−$222
Unrealized−$8
Win rate (resolved)55%
Wins / losses66 / 55
Est. fees paid−$6
Open positions10
Markets (closed)121 / 132
History coverage36d
Avg bet$13
Trades / day4.9
Drawdown100%
Kalshi-fit52%

Ledger

positions · history · trades
Positions 10 History 121 Trades
Open positions — marked to current price, like Polymarket
Marketoutcome entrynow investedvalue unrealized PnL
Will Spain win on 2026-06-15? Yes 92¢ 92¢ $10 $10 −$0 (-1%)
Will Norway win on 2026-06-16? Yes 83¢ 82¢ $10 $10 −$0 (-1%)
Will France win on 2026-06-16? Yes 67¢ 66¢ $10 $10 −$0 (-1%)
Will Uruguay win on 2026-06-15? Yes 67¢ 66¢ $10 $10 −$0 (-1%)
Will Belgium win on 2026-06-15? Yes 62¢ 62¢ $10 $10 −$0 (-1%)
Will IR Iran win on 2026-06-15? Yes 51¢ 50¢ $10 $10 −$0 (-1%)
Will France win Group I in the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Yes 69¢ 66¢ $10 $10 −$0 (-4%)
Will Norway advance to the knockout stages at the 2026 FIFA World Cup? No 20¢ 14¢ $10 $7 −$3 (-28%)
Iraq vs. Norway: Draw at halftime? Yes 38¢ 32¢ $5 $4 −$1 (-16%)
Will Raphinha be the top goalscorer at the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Yes 4¢ 1¢ $5 $1 −$4 (-79%)
Top-25 open positions by current value. Prices in cents = market-implied probability (50¢ = 50%). Plus 1 resolved losing bets — already counted in realized PnL, so not shown here.
Closed markets — PnL by actual resolution, newest first
MarketwheninvestedPnLROI
Will Fernando Dias da Costa win the 2025 Guinea-Bissau presidential el Jun 15 $10 −$9 -93%
Exact Score: Peru 0 - 2 Spain? Jun 15 $3 −$3 -100%
Will Brazil win on 2026-06-13? Jun 15 $10 −$10 -100%
Will Türkiye win on 2026-06-14? Jun 15 $10 −$10 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 7, 9:15PM-9:30PM ET Jun 15 $1 −$1 -100%
Exact Score: France 3 - 0 Northern Ireland? Jun 15 $5 −$5 -100%
Will Morocco win on 2026-06-07? Jun 15 $20 −$20 -100%
Will Korea Republic vs. Czechia end in a draw? Jun 15 $10 +$3 +34%
Bolivia vs. Algeria: O/U 2.5 Jun 15 $5 −$5 -100%
Will Switzerland win on 2026-06-13? Jun 15 $10 −$10 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 7, 9:30PM-9:45PM ET Jun 15 $7 −$1 -8%
Will Germany win on 2026-06-14? Jun 14 $10 +$1 +6%
Will Scotland win on 2026-06-13? Jun 14 $10 +$6 +60%
Knicks vs. Spurs Jun 14 $60 −$60 -100%
Will United States win on 2026-06-12? Jun 13 $10 +$12 +114%
Will Canada vs. Bosnia and Herzegovina end in a draw? Jun 12 $10 +$15 +143%
Will Mexico win on 2026-06-11? Jun 11 $10 +$4 +44%
Will Algeria win on 2026-06-10? Jun 11 $10 +$4 +36%
Bolivia vs. Algeria: Both Teams to Score Jun 11 $5 +$4 +86%
Exact Score: Bolivia 2 - 0 Algeria? Jun 11 $1 −$1 -98%
Will England win on 2026-06-10? Jun 11 $10 +$2 +17%
Will Portugal win on 2026-06-10? Jun 10 $10 +$3 +31%
Will Argentina win on 2026-06-09? Jun 10 $10 +$2 +18%
Will Saudi Arabia vs. Senegal end in a draw? Jun 10 $5 +$5 +97%
Will Iraq vs. Venezuela end in a draw? Jun 10 $5 −$5 -94%
Will Spain win on 2026-06-08? Jun 09 $30 +$5 +17%
Will France win on 2026-06-08? Jun 08 $100 +$15 +14%
Spread: France (-1.5) Jun 08 $20 +$8 +42%
France vs. Northern Ireland: O/U 2.5 Jun 08 $10 +$4 +44%
Will Netherlands win on 2026-06-08? Jun 08 $20 +$5 +24%
Will Denmark win on 2026-06-07? Jun 08 $10 +$3 +26%
Will Colombia win on 2026-06-07? Jun 08 $10 +$2 +20%
Colombia leading at halftime? Jun 08 $10 +$5 +52%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 7, 9:20PM-9:25PM ET Jun 08 $16 −$16 -100%
Ethereum Up or Down - June 7, 9:15PM-9:20PM ET Jun 08 $3 −$1 -27%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 7, 9:15PM-9:20PM ET Jun 08 $2 −$2 -100%
Solana Up or Down - June 7, 9:15PM-9:20PM ET Jun 08 $1 $0 +20%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 7, 9:10PM-9:15PM ET Jun 08 $1 $0 +3%
Solana Up or Down - June 7, 9:10PM-9:15PM ET Jun 08 $1 $0 +8%
Ethereum Up or Down - June 7, 9:10PM-9:15PM ET Jun 08 $1 $0 +7%
Will Ecuador win on 2026-06-07? Jun 08 $10 +$2 +18%
Will Italy win on 2026-06-07? Jun 07 $10 +$17 +165%
Will Morocco vs. Norway end in a draw? Jun 07 $5 +$2 +36%
Spread: Norway (-1.5) Jun 07 $50 +$11 +21%
Will Croatia win on 2026-06-07? Jun 07 $5 +$2 +42%
Exact Score: Jordan 0 - 3 Colombia? Jun 07 $1 −$1 -98%
Morocco leading at halftime? Jun 07 $10 +$5 +50%
Will Kosovo win on 2026-06-07? Jun 07 $10 +$2 +20%
Will Manchester City FC win on 2026-05-24? Jun 07 $1 −$1 -100%
Will Brighton & Hove Albion FC win on 2026-05-24? Jun 07 $1 −$1 -100%
Latest 50 closed markets. Resolution = Polymarket fact (redeemable/curPrice), not a timer.
Latest trades by this wallet
Marketsidepricesizewhen
Will Fernando Dias da Costa win the 2025 Guinea-Bissau presidential el SELL Yes 4¢ $1 1h
Will Norway win on 2026-06-16? BUY Yes 83¢ $10 1h
Will France win on 2026-06-16? BUY Yes 67¢ $10 1h
Will Uruguay win on 2026-06-15? BUY Yes 67¢ $10 1h
Will IR Iran win on 2026-06-15? BUY Yes 51¢ $10 1h
Will Belgium win on 2026-06-15? BUY Yes 62¢ $10 1h
Will Spain win on 2026-06-15? BUY Yes 92¢ $10 1h
Australia vs. Türkiye: O/U 2.5 AND Will Türkiye win on 2026-06-14? BUY 49¢ $51 31h
Will Germany win on 2026-06-14? BUY Yes 94¢ $10 31h
Will Türkiye win on 2026-06-14? BUY Yes 57¢ $10 31h
Knicks vs. Spurs BUY Spurs 80¢ $40 34h
Knicks vs. Spurs BUY Spurs 65¢ $20 34h
Will Canada vs. Bosnia and Herzegovina end in a draw? SELL Yes 60¢ $16 2d
Will Brazil win on 2026-06-13? BUY Yes 60¢ $10 2d
Will Scotland win on 2026-06-13? BUY Yes 62¢ $10 2d
Will Switzerland win on 2026-06-13? BUY Yes 81¢ $10 2d
Will United States win on 2026-06-12? BUY Yes 46¢ $10 2d
Will Canada vs. Bosnia and Herzegovina end in a draw? BUY Yes 28¢ $10 2d
Will Korea Republic vs. Czechia end in a draw? SELL Yes 59¢ $14 3d
Will Korea Republic vs. Czechia end in a draw? BUY Yes 32¢ $10 3d
Will Mexico win on 2026-06-11? BUY Yes 69¢ $10 3d
Exact Score: Bolivia 2 - 0 Algeria? SELL Yes 1¢ $0 4d
Exact Score: Bolivia 2 - 0 Algeria? BUY Yes 50¢ $1 4d
Bolivia vs. Algeria: Both Teams to Score BUY No 53¢ $5 4d
Bolivia vs. Algeria: O/U 2.5 BUY Under 41¢ $5 4d
Will Iraq vs. Venezuela end in a draw? SELL Yes 2¢ $0 5d
Will Saudi Arabia vs. Senegal end in a draw? BUY Yes 50¢ $5 5d
Will Portugal win on 2026-06-10? BUY Yes 76¢ $10 5d
Will England win on 2026-06-10? BUY Yes 85¢ $10 5d
Will Algeria win on 2026-06-10? BUY Yes 73¢ $10 5d
From the wallet’s activity history (Polymarket /activity), latest 30.
✓ Calibrated vs Polymarket: our portfolio calc $81.72 · official $81.72 (match) · 287 history records