Wallet analysis

2026-06-26T03:30:25+00:00

trader profile + honest PnL by actual resolution and NET edge after slippage — worth copying?

0.0
score
84 0x84a3…44dc sports 12 markets active 0h ago coverage 29d
RISKYcopy with care sports specialist⚠ Small sample
✗ too few resolved markets (<12) to judge✗ negative after realistic slippage
Total PnL −$302 (-31%) realized −$321 · open +$19
Gross ROI / mkt -31% what the leader earns
−copy tax
Net edge / mkt -38% what you keep after slip
Net edge-38%after slip
Net WR30%break-even
Win rate30%3W / 7L
Drawdown100%max
Avg bet$82per market
Trades / day0.6pace
Fees−$15est.
Kalshi-fit92%portable
Net worth$174now

Equity curve

realized PnL
1W 1M 3M YTD 1Y All
2 days+$64
7 days+$64
14 days+$47
30 days−$26
Cards show realized PnL over calendar windows (by resolution date). The “Total PnL” chart appears for wallets we track daily.

Categories

share · PnL
sports 90% +$90
other 10% −$97
Share of volume and PnL by niche (realized + unrealized). Shows where the trader actually earns — and where they bleed.

The copy-tax — evidence

gross is the leader · net is you

Net edge · by timeframe

gross → net
insufficient sample — too few resolved markets to judge
break-even: the trader needs > 10.5% gross ROI/market for the copier to break even
chance a trade nets +30%
net ROI/market (all)-37.9%
timeframemarkets gross ROINET ROI gross WRNET WR net PnL (wtd)
≤7d 3 -16.1% -24.1% 33% 33% +5.4%
≤30d 10 -31.3% -37.9% 30% 30% -12.4%
≤90d 10 -31.3% -37.9% 30% 30% -12.4%
all 10 -31.3% -37.9% 30% 30% -12.4%
<b>gross</b> = as the leader traded. <b>net</b> = what WE’d keep after slippage (we enter later, price moved). Net ROI ≤ 0 → copying loses even if the leader profits.

Slippage survival

net ROI/WR at slip
turnover0.6 tr/day
realistic slip~5%
edge survives to0%
copier slippageNET ROINET WRnet PnL (wtd)
5% ideal ← realistic here -37.9% 30% -12.4%
10% -43.8% 30% -20.8%
15% -49.2% 30% -28.4%
20% -54.2% 30% -35.4%
Realistic slippage grows with turnover and leader size. If net ROI turns negative before the realistic slip — it’s a <b>trap</b>: leader profits, you lose.

Edge quality

honest signals — luck vs skill
Profit concentration
top 60% · top 2 90% thin sample
Edge freshness (90d)
90d ROI -3% 90d near zero / fading
Fragile wins
0% wins margin < slip thin sample
Flat-copyable
equal-wt -31% · $-wt -3% works when copied flat
Big bets
big-bet WR —% no data
Persistence
early —% → late —% no data
Add-ons / DCA
1.2 add-ons/market flat bettor — clean entries
Win / loss size
+$151 vs −$68 · ×2.21 wins bigger than losses
Profit factor
×0.95 loses more than it wins
Copy size
≥ $50 mirror leader trades ≥ this size to copy only main ideas

Supporting detail

29d coverage
Net worth$174
Realized−$321
Unrealized+$19
Win rate (resolved)30%
Wins / losses3 / 7
Est. fees paid−$15
Open positions2
Markets (closed)10 / 12
History coverage29d
Avg bet$82
Trades / day0.6
Drawdown100%
Kalshi-fit92%

Ledger

positions · history · trades
Positions 2 History 10 Trades
Open positions — marked to current price, like Polymarket
Marketoutcome entrynow investedvalue unrealized PnL
Will Türkiye vs. United States end in a draw? Yes 34¢ 36¢ $99 $106 +$7 (+7%)
Will Paraguay vs. Australia end in a draw? Yes 57¢ 68¢ $56 $68 +$11 (+20%)
Top-25 open positions by current value. Prices in cents = market-implied probability (50¢ = 50%). Plus 6 resolved losing bets — already counted in realized PnL, so not shown here.
Closed markets — PnL by actual resolution, newest first
MarketwheninvestedPnLROI
Chicago Cubs vs. New York Mets Jun 26 $180 +$273 +152%
Philadelphia Phillies vs. Washington Nationals Jun 25 $113 −$112 -99%
Will Japan win on 2026-06-25? Jun 25 $99 −$97 -98%
Canada vs. Bosnia and Herzegovina: O/U 2.5 Jun 12 $99 −$99 -100%
Canada vs. Bosnia-Herzegovina: Canada O/U 0.5 Jun 12 $52 −$51 -98%
HSBC Championships: Elena Rybakina vs Katie Boulter Jun 12 $112 +$133 +118%
Set Handicap: Rublev (-1.5) vs Borges (+1.5) May 29 $30 −$29 -98%
Houston Astros vs. Texas Rangers: O/U 6.5 May 28 $10 −$10 -98%
Houston Astros vs. Texas Rangers May 28 $90 −$80 -89%
Tampa Bay Rays vs. Baltimore Orioles May 28 $44 +$47 +105%
Latest 50 closed markets. Resolution = Polymarket fact (redeemable/curPrice), not a timer.
Latest trades by this wallet
Marketsidepricesizewhen
Will Türkiye vs. United States end in a draw? BUY Yes 34¢ $101 16m
Will Paraguay vs. Australia end in a draw? BUY Yes 57¢ $57 40m
Chicago Cubs vs. New York Mets BUY Chicago Cubs 39¢ $180 1h
Philadelphia Phillies vs. Washington Nationals BUY Washington Nationals 53¢ $113 4h
Will Japan win on 2026-06-25? BUY Yes 37¢ $99 4h
Canada vs. Bosnia and Herzegovina: O/U 2.5 BUY Over 42¢ $90 13d
Canada vs. Bosnia and Herzegovina: O/U 2.5 BUY Over 42¢ $4 13d
Canada vs. Bosnia and Herzegovina: O/U 2.5 BUY Over 42¢ $3 13d
Canada vs. Bosnia and Herzegovina: O/U 2.5 BUY Over 42¢ $2 13d
Canada vs. Bosnia-Herzegovina: Canada O/U 0.5 BUY Under 41¢ $52 13d
HSBC Championships: Elena Rybakina vs Katie Boulter SELL Katie Boulter 100¢ $246 13d
HSBC Championships: Elena Rybakina vs Katie Boulter BUY Katie Boulter 45¢ $112 13d
Set Handicap: Rublev (-1.5) vs Borges (+1.5) BUY Borges 45¢ $30 27d
Houston Astros vs. Texas Rangers: O/U 6.5 BUY Under 18¢ $10 29d
Houston Astros vs. Texas Rangers SELL Texas Rangers $10 29d
Houston Astros vs. Texas Rangers BUY Texas Rangers 51¢ $90 29d
Tampa Bay Rays vs. Baltimore Orioles BUY Baltimore Orioles 48¢ $44 29d
From the wallet’s activity history (Polymarket /activity), latest 30.
Calibrated vs Polymarket: our portfolio calc $174.09 · official $173.10 (match) · 19 history records