Wallet analysis

2026-06-16T22:32:55+00:00

trader profile + honest PnL by actual resolution and NET edge after slippage — worth copying?

0.0
score
84 0x84a1…4fb0 crypto 16 markets active 1h ago coverage 2d
RISKYcopy with care crypto specialist⚠ High turnover⚠ Small sample
✗ too few resolved markets (<12) to judge✗ only 2d of captured history — unreliable✗ net negative once open positions are counted! high turnover
Total PnL −$20 (-4%) realized +$14 · open −$34
Copy trade Watchlist View on Polymarket ↗
Gross ROI / mkt +142% what the leader earns
→−copy tax
Net edge / mkt +102% what you keep after slip
Net edge+102%after slip
Net WR43%break-even
Win rate43%3W / 4L
Drawdown54%max
Avg bet$34per market
Trades / day10.4pace
Fees−$2est.
Kalshi-fit62%portable
Net worth$276now

Equity curve

realized PnL
Not enough resolved history to chart — analysis covers only 2d (hyperactive wallet — we see only the tail of its trades). A “Total PnL” curve will appear once daily tracking accumulates.

Categories

share · PnL
other 52% −$13
crypto 35% +$12
sports 13% +$124
Share of volume and PnL by niche (realized + unrealized). Shows where the trader actually earns — and where they bleed.

The copy-tax — evidence

gross is the leader · net is you

Net edge · by timeframe

gross → net
insufficient sample — too few resolved markets to judge
break-even: the trader needs > 10.5% gross ROI/market for the copier to break even
chance a trade nets +43%
net ROI/market (all)+118.5%
timeframemarkets gross ROINET ROI gross WRNET WR net PnL (wtd)
≤7d 7 +141.5% +118.5% 43% 43% +56.1%
≤30d 7 +141.5% +118.5% 43% 43% +56.1%
≤90d 7 +141.5% +118.5% 43% 43% +56.1%
all 7 +141.5% +118.5% 43% 43% +56.1%
<b>gross</b> = as the leader traded. <b>net</b> = what WE’d keep after slippage (we enter later, price moved). Net ROI ≤ 0 → copying loses even if the leader profits.

Slippage survival

net ROI/WR at slip
turnover10.4 tr/day
realistic slip~9%
edge survives to20%
copier slippageNET ROINET WRnet PnL (wtd)
5% ideal ← realistic here +118.5% 43% +56.1%
10% +97.6% 43% +41.2%
15% +78.5% 43% +27.6%
20% +61.0% 43% +15.1%
Realistic slippage grows with turnover and leader size. If net ROI turns negative before the realistic slip — it’s a <b>trap</b>: leader profits, you lose.

Edge quality

honest signals — luck vs skill
Profit concentration
top 55% · top 2 98% thin sample
Edge freshness (90d)
90d ROI +73% too few recent
Fragile wins
0% wins margin < slip thin sample
Flat-copyable
equal-wt +141% · $-wt +73% works when copied flat
Big bets
big-bet WR —% no data
Persistence
early —% → late —% no data
Add-ons / DCA
1.6 add-ons/market adds to positions
Win / loss size
+$99 vs −$35 · ×2.83 wins bigger than losses
Profit factor
×2.12 per $1 lost it wins $2.12
Copy size
≥ $50 mirror leader trades ≥ this size to copy only main ideas

Supporting detail

2d coverage
Net worth$276
Realized+$14
Unrealized−$34
Win rate (resolved)43%
Wins / losses3 / 4
Est. fees paid−$2
Open positions9
Markets (closed)7 / 16
History coverage2d
Avg bet$34
Trades / day10.4
Drawdown54%
Kalshi-fit62%

Ledger

positions · history · trades
Positions 9 History 7 Trades
Open positions — marked to current price, like Polymarket
Marketoutcome entrynow investedvalue unrealized PnL
Will Argentina win on 2026-06-16? Yes 68¢ 68¢ $200 $199 −$1 (-1%)
Lionel Messi: 1+ assists Yes 40¢ 32¢ $50 $40 −$10 (-21%)
Portugal vs. DR Congo: O/U 5.5 Over 7¢ 6¢ $15 $14 −$1 (-7%)
Exact Score: Argentina 2 - 0 Algeria? Yes 16¢ 16¢ $10 $10 −$0 (-3%)
Exact Score: Argentina 3 - 1 Algeria? Yes 7¢ 8¢ $5 $5 +$0 (+7%)
Exact Score: Argentina 3 - 0 Algeria? Yes 11¢ 10¢ $5 $5 −$0 (-5%)
Exact Score: Argentina 1 - 0 Algeria? Yes 16¢ 14¢ $5 $5 −$0 (-9%)
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 4:40PM-4:45PM ET Down 12¢ 0¢ $15 $0 −$15 (-100%)
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 4:45PM-4:50PM ET Up 26¢ 0¢ $5 $0 −$5 (-100%)
Top-25 open positions by current value. Prices in cents = market-implied probability (50¢ = 50%). Plus 4 resolved losing bets — already counted in realized PnL, so not shown here.
Closed markets — PnL by actual resolution, newest first
MarketwheninvestedPnLROI
France vs. Senegal: France O/U 2.5 Jun 16 $55 +$125 +226%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 4:35PM-4:40PM ET Jun 16 $32 −$30 -94%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 4:30PM-4:35PM ET Jun 16 $11 −$10 -94%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 4:25PM-4:30PM ET Jun 16 $48 −$45 -94%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 4:20PM-4:25PM ET Jun 16 $16 +$163 +1024%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 4:15PM-4:20PM ET Jun 16 $5 +$7 +140%
Will Netherlands win on 2026-06-14? Jun 14 $55 −$54 -98%
Latest 50 closed markets. Resolution = Polymarket fact (redeemable/curPrice), not a timer.
Latest trades by this wallet
Marketsidepricesizewhen
Lionel Messi: 1+ assists BUY Yes 40¢ $51 1h
Exact Score: Argentina 3 - 1 Algeria? BUY Yes 7¢ $5 1h
Exact Score: Argentina 3 - 0 Algeria? BUY Yes 11¢ $5 1h
Exact Score: Argentina 1 - 0 Algeria? BUY Yes 16¢ $5 1h
Exact Score: Argentina 2 - 0 Algeria? BUY Yes 16¢ $10 1h
Will Argentina win on 2026-06-16? BUY Yes 68¢ $202 1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 4:45PM-4:50PM ET BUY Up 26¢ $5 1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 4:40PM-4:45PM ET BUY Down 8¢ $5 1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 4:40PM-4:45PM ET BUY Down 15¢ $5 1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 4:40PM-4:45PM ET BUY Down 17¢ $5 1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 4:35PM-4:40PM ET BUY Down 9¢ $5 1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 4:35PM-4:40PM ET BUY Down 16¢ $26 1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 4:30PM-4:35PM ET BUY Down 5¢ $5 1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 4:30PM-4:35PM ET BUY Down 24¢ $5 1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 4:25PM-4:30PM ET BUY Up 3¢ $5 2h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 4:25PM-4:30PM ET BUY Up 4¢ $5 2h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 4:25PM-4:30PM ET BUY Up 8¢ $5 2h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 4:25PM-4:30PM ET BUY Up 14¢ $5 2h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 4:25PM-4:30PM ET BUY Up 19¢ $26 2h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 4:20PM-4:25PM ET BUY Down 7¢ $5 2h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 4:20PM-4:25PM ET BUY Down 11¢ $5 2h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 4:20PM-4:25PM ET BUY Down 8¢ $5 2h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 4:15PM-4:20PM ET BUY Up 40¢ $5 2h
Portugal vs. DR Congo: O/U 5.5 BUY Over 7¢ $15 2h
France vs. Senegal: France O/U 2.5 BUY Over 30¢ $55 44h
Will Netherlands win on 2026-06-14? BUY Yes 48¢ $55 2d
From the wallet’s activity history (Polymarket /activity), latest 30.
✓ Calibrated vs Polymarket: our portfolio calc $276.41 · official $276.41 (match) · 29 history records