Wallet analysis

2026-06-18T08:43:35+00:00

trader profile + honest PnL by actual resolution and NET edge after slippage — worth copying?

0.0
score
84 0x84a0…dd99 other 248 markets active 1h ago coverage 136d
TRAPdo not copy ⚠ High turnover
✗ negative after realistic slippage✗ wins on margins thinner than slippage! high turnover! concentrated profit (few bets)
Total PnL −$81 (-0%) realized −$81 · open +$0
Copy trade Watchlist View on Polymarket ↗
Gross ROI / mkt -0% what the leader earns
→−copy tax
Net edge / mkt -17% what you keep after slip
Net edge-17%after slip
Net WR0%break-even
Win rate4%10W / 238L
Whale WR0%big bets
Drawdown100%max
Avg bet$237per market
Trades / day9.8pace
Fees−$11est.
Kalshi-fit62%portable
Net worth$0now

Equity curve

realized PnL
1W 1M 3M YTD 1Y All
2 days−$5
7 days−$17
14 days−$27
30 days−$42
Cards show realized PnL over calendar windows (by resolution date). The “Total PnL” chart appears for wallets we track daily.

Categories

share · PnL
other 45% −$42
sports 23% −$18
culture 7% −$7
world 6% −$8
politics 6% −$5
economics 6% −$9
crypto 6% −$2
tech 1% −$1
finance 0% $0
Share of volume and PnL by niche (realized + unrealized). Shows where the trader actually earns — and where they bleed.

The copy-tax — evidence

gross is the leader · net is you

Net edge · by timeframe

gross → net
negative after costs — do not copy
break-even: the trader needs > 10.5% gross ROI/market for the copier to break even
chance a trade nets +0%
net ROI/market (all)-9.7%
timeframemarkets gross ROINET ROI gross WRNET WR net PnL (wtd)
≤7d 24 -0.2% -9.7% 0% 0% -9.7%
≤30d 69 -0.2% -9.7% 0% 0% -9.7%
≤90d 172 -0.2% -9.7% 3% 0% -9.7%
all 248 -0.2% -9.7% 4% 0% -9.7%
<b>gross</b> = as the leader traded. <b>net</b> = what WE’d keep after slippage (we enter later, price moved). Net ROI ≤ 0 → copying loses even if the leader profits.

Slippage survival

net ROI/WR at slip
turnover9.8 tr/day
realistic slip~9%
edge survives to0%
copier slippageNET ROINET WRnet PnL (wtd)
5% ideal ← realistic here -9.7% 0% -9.7%
10% -18.3% 0% -18.3%
15% -26.2% 0% -26.2%
20% -33.4% 0% -33.4%
Realistic slippage grows with turnover and leader size. If net ROI turns negative before the realistic slip — it’s a <b>trap</b>: leader profits, you lose.

Edge quality

honest signals — luck vs skill
Profit concentration
top 34% · top 2 51% concentrated in a few bets
Edge freshness (90d)
90d ROI -0% 90d near zero / fading
Fragile wins
100% wins margin < slip most wins thinner than slippage → losses for you
Flat-copyable
equal-wt -0% · $-wt -0% works when copied flat
Big bets
big-bet WR 0% (≥$500) big bets weaker
Persistence
early -0% → late -0% mixed
Add-ons / DCA
2.6 add-ons/market adds to positions
Win / loss size
+$0 vs −$0 · ×1.15 wins ≈ losses
Profit factor
×0.05 loses more than it wins
Copy size
≥ $50 mirror leader trades ≥ this size to copy only main ideas

Supporting detail

136d coverage
Net worth$0
Realized−$81
Unrealized+$0
Win rate (resolved)4%
Wins / losses10 / 238
Whale WR (big bets)0%
Est. fees paid−$11
Open positions0
Markets (closed)248 / 248
History coverage136d
Avg bet$237
Trades / day9.8
Drawdown100%
Kalshi-fit62%

Ledger

positions · history · trades
Positions 0 History 248 Trades
no open positions
Closed markets — PnL by actual resolution, newest first
MarketwheninvestedPnLROI
Will Ahmed al-Sharaa win the Nobel Peace Prize in 2026? Jun 18 $468 −$1 -0%
Will Ghana win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Jun 18 $786 −$1 -0%
Will Julian Assange win the Nobel Peace Prize in 2026? Jun 18 $363 −$1 -0%
Will New York Red Bulls win the 2026 MLS Cup? Jun 17 $279 $0 -0%
Will the Chicago Cubs win the 2026 World Series? Jun 17 $264 −$1 -0%
Will Minnesota United FC win the 2026 MLS Cup? Jun 16 $520 −$1 -0%
Will Canada win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Jun 16 $542 −$1 -0%
Will the Miami Dolphins win the 2027 NFL league championship? Jun 16 $119 $0 -0%
Will the Jacksonville Jaguars win the 2027 NFL league championship? Jun 15 $274 −$1 -0%
Will Uruguay win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Jun 15 $1,146 −$1 -0%
Will Recep Tayyip Erdoğan win the Nobel Peace Prize in 2026? Jun 15 $168 −$1 -1%
Will Trump acquire Greenland before 2027? Jun 15 $414 −$1 -0%
Will Charles Leclerc be the 2026 F1 Drivers' Champion? Jun 15 $148 −$1 -1%
Will Michelle Bolsonaro win the 2026 Brazilian presidential election? Jun 15 $143 $0 -0%
Will Belgium win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Jun 14 $541 −$1 -0%
Will the Chicago Bears win the 2027 NFL league championship? Jun 14 $59 $0 -0%
Will Scotland win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Jun 14 $364 $0 -0%
Will the Pittsburgh Pirates win the 2026 World Series? Jun 13 $119 $0 -0%
Will Charlotte FC win the 2026 MLS Cup? Jun 13 $469 −$1 -0%
Will Diosdado Cabello Rondón be the leader of Venezuela end of 2026? Jun 12 $483 −$1 -0%
Will Mohammed bin Salman win the Nobel Peace Prize in 2026? Jun 12 $239 $0 -0%
Will Xi Jinping win the Nobel Peace Prize in 2026? Jun 12 $135 $0 -0%
Will the Boston Red Sox win the 2026 World Series? Jun 12 $453 −$1 -0%
Will China invade Taiwan by end of 2026? Jun 12 $547 −$1 -0%
Will Lando Norris be the 2026 F1 Drivers' Champion? Jun 11 $122 $0 -0%
Will the Pittsburgh Steelers win the 2027 NFL league championship? Jun 11 $218 −$1 -0%
Will 4 Fed rate cuts happen in 2026? Jun 10 $210 −$1 -0%
Will Tarcisio de Freitas win the 2026 Brazilian presidential election? Jun 10 $513 −$1 -0%
Will the Tampa Bay Buccaneers win the 2027 NFL league championship? Jun 10 $347 −$1 -0%
Will Romeu Zema win the 2026 Brazilian presidential election? Jun 10 $160 $0 -0%
Will Egypt win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Jun 09 $599 −$1 -0%
Will Isack Hadjar be the 2026 F1 Drivers' Champion? Jun 09 $1,147 −$1 -0%
Will the Baltimore Orioles win the 2026 World Series? Jun 09 $347 −$1 -0%
Will Greta Thunberg win the Nobel Peace Prize in 2026? Jun 08 $369 −$1 -0%
Will 8 Fed rate cuts happen in 2026? Jun 08 $454 −$1 -0%
Will Charlie Kirk win the Nobel Peace Prize in 2026? Jun 08 $468 −$1 -0%
Will South Korea win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Jun 08 $1,011 −$1 -0%
Will Norway win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Jun 07 $268 $0 -0%
Will Colombia win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Jun 05 $195 $0 -0%
Will Oscar Piastri be the 2026 F1 Drivers' Champion? Jun 05 $150 $0 -0%
Will Bitcoin reach $1,000,000 by December 31, 2026? Jun 04 $378 $0 -0%
Will Ronaldo Caiado win the 2026 Brazilian presidential election? Jun 04 $212 −$1 -0%
Will the Indianapolis Colts win the 2027 NFL league championship? Jun 03 $134 $0 -0%
Will 6 Fed rate cuts happen in 2026? Jun 02 $183 $0 -0%
Will the Cincinnati Reds win the 2026 World Series? Jun 02 $153 $0 -0%
Will Eduardo Bolsonaro win the 2026 Brazilian presidential election? Jun 01 $368 $0 -0%
Will Japan win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Jun 01 $642 −$1 -0%
Will 12 or more Fed rate cuts happen in 2026? May 31 $820 −$1 -0%
Will the Detroit Tigers win the 2026 World Series? May 31 $457 −$1 -0%
Will the New York Mets win the 2026 World Series? May 30 $67 $0 -0%
Latest 50 closed markets. Resolution = Polymarket fact (redeemable/curPrice), not a timer.
Latest trades by this wallet
Marketsidepricesizewhen
Will Ahmed al-Sharaa win the Nobel Peace Prize in 2026? SELL No 99¢ $57 43m
Will Ahmed al-Sharaa win the Nobel Peace Prize in 2026? BUY No 99¢ $57 1h
Will Ghana win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? SELL No 100¢ $57 4h
Will Ghana win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? BUY No 100¢ $57 5h
Will Julian Assange win the Nobel Peace Prize in 2026? SELL No 99¢ $57 7h
Will Julian Assange win the Nobel Peace Prize in 2026? BUY No 99¢ $57 9h
Will Julian Assange win the Nobel Peace Prize in 2026? SELL No 99¢ $57 19h
Will Julian Assange win the Nobel Peace Prize in 2026? BUY No 99¢ $57 20h
Will Ahmed al-Sharaa win the Nobel Peace Prize in 2026? SELL No 99¢ $57 22h
Will Ahmed al-Sharaa win the Nobel Peace Prize in 2026? BUY No 99¢ $57 24h
Will New York Red Bulls win the 2026 MLS Cup? SELL No 98¢ $57 25h
Will New York Red Bulls win the 2026 MLS Cup? BUY No 99¢ $57 26h
Will the Chicago Cubs win the 2026 World Series? SELL No 98¢ $57 32h
Will the Chicago Cubs win the 2026 World Series? BUY No 98¢ $58 33h
Will Minnesota United FC win the 2026 MLS Cup? SELL No 99¢ $58 38h
Will Minnesota United FC win the 2026 MLS Cup? BUY No 99¢ $58 39h
Will Canada win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? SELL No 100¢ $58 41h
Will Canada win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? BUY No 100¢ $58 42h
Will the Miami Dolphins win the 2027 NFL league championship? SELL No 99¢ $58 2d
Will the Miami Dolphins win the 2027 NFL league championship? BUY No 99¢ $58 2d
Will the Jacksonville Jaguars win the 2027 NFL league championship? SELL No 98¢ $58 2d
Will the Jacksonville Jaguars win the 2027 NFL league championship? BUY No 98¢ $58 2d
Will Uruguay win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? SELL No 99¢ $58 2d
Will Uruguay win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? BUY No 99¢ $58 2d
Will Recep Tayyip Erdoğan win the Nobel Peace Prize in 2026? SELL No 99¢ $58 2d
Will Recep Tayyip Erdoğan win the Nobel Peace Prize in 2026? BUY No 99¢ $58 2d
Will Trump acquire Greenland before 2027? SELL No 94¢ $58 2d
Will Trump acquire Greenland before 2027? BUY No 94¢ $58 2d
Will Charles Leclerc be the 2026 F1 Drivers' Champion? SELL No 98¢ $58 3d
Will Charles Leclerc be the 2026 F1 Drivers' Champion? BUY No 98¢ $59 3d
From the wallet’s activity history (Polymarket /activity), latest 30.
✓ Calibrated vs Polymarket: our portfolio calc $0.00 · official $0.00 (match) · 1392 history records