Wallet analysis

2026-06-17T05:09:07+00:00

trader profile + honest PnL by actual resolution and NET edge after slippage — worth copying?

0.0
score
84 0x849e…180e crypto 577 markets active 0h ago coverage 63d ⚠
TRAPdo not copy crypto specialist⚠ High turnover⚠ Covers last 62d only
✗ negative after realistic slippage✗ wins on margins thinner than slippage! high turnover
Total PnL −$225 (-2%) realized −$227 · open +$2
Copy trade Watchlist View on Polymarket ↗
Gross ROI / mkt -1% what the leader earns
→−copy tax
Net edge / mkt -17% what you keep after slip
Net edge-17%after slip
Net WR1%break-even
Win rate97%560W / 16L
Drawdown100%max
Avg bet$21per market
Trades / day9.4pace
Kalshi-fit91%portable
Net worth$151now

Equity curve

realized PnL
1W 1M 3M YTD 1Y All
2 days+$14
7 days+$42
14 days+$10
30 days−$61
Cards show realized PnL over calendar windows (by resolution date). The “Total PnL” chart appears for wallets we track daily.

Categories

share · PnL
crypto 82% −$143
finance 10% +$20
other 8% −$34
Share of volume and PnL by niche (realized + unrealized). Shows where the trader actually earns — and where they bleed.

The copy-tax — evidence

gross is the leader · net is you

Net edge · by timeframe

gross → net
negative after costs — do not copy
break-even: the trader needs > 10.5% gross ROI/market for the copier to break even
chance a trade nets +1%
net ROI/market (all)-10.3%
timeframemarkets gross ROINET ROI gross WRNET WR net PnL (wtd)
≤7d 97 +2.0% -7.7% 100% 1% -7.5%
≤30d 308 -1.2% -10.6% 97% 1% -10.5%
≤90d 576 -0.9% -10.3% 97% 1% -10.7%
all 576 -0.9% -10.3% 97% 1% -10.7%
<b>gross</b> = as the leader traded. <b>net</b> = what WE’d keep after slippage (we enter later, price moved). Net ROI ≤ 0 → copying loses even if the leader profits.

Slippage survival

net ROI/WR at slip
turnover9.4 tr/day
realistic slip~9%
edge survives to0%
copier slippageNET ROINET WRnet PnL (wtd)
5% ideal ← realistic here -10.3% 1% -10.7%
10% -18.9% 0% -19.2%
15% -26.7% 0% -27.0%
20% -33.9% 0% -34.2%
Realistic slippage grows with turnover and leader size. If net ROI turns negative before the realistic slip — it’s a <b>trap</b>: leader profits, you lose.

Edge quality

honest signals — luck vs skill
Profit concentration
top 2% · top 2 5% broad-based profit
Edge freshness (90d)
90d ROI -1% 90d near zero / fading
Fragile wins
99% wins margin < slip most wins thinner than slippage → losses for you
Flat-copyable
equal-wt -1% · $-wt -1% works when copied flat
Big bets
big-bet WR —% no data
Persistence
early -0% → late -1% mixed
Add-ons / DCA
1.0 add-ons/market flat bettor — clean entries
Win / loss size
+$0 vs −$25 · ×0.02 wins small, loses big
Profit factor
×0.6 loses more than it wins
Copy size
≥ $50 mirror leader trades ≥ this size to copy only main ideas

Supporting detail

63d coverage
Net worth$151
Realized−$227
Unrealized+$2
Win rate (resolved)97%
Wins / losses560 / 16
Open positions3
Markets (closed)576 / 577
History coverage63d ⚠
Avg bet$21
Trades / day9.4
Drawdown100%
Kalshi-fit91%

Ledger

positions · history · trades
Positions 3 History 576 Trades
Open positions — marked to current price, like Polymarket
Marketoutcome entrynow investedvalue unrealized PnL
XRP Up or Down - June 17, 12AM ET Up 99¢ 100¢ $50 $50 +$0 (+1%)
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 17, 12AM ET Up 99¢ 100¢ $49 $50 +$1 (+1%)
Ethereum Up or Down - June 17, 12AM ET Up 98¢ 100¢ $49 $50 +$1 (+2%)
Top-25 open positions by current value. Prices in cents = market-implied probability (50¢ = 50%). Plus 2 resolved losing bets — already counted in realized PnL, so not shown here.
Closed markets — PnL by actual resolution, newest first
MarketwheninvestedPnLROI
Solana Up or Down - March 23, 12PM ET Jun 17 $1 $0 +1%
XRP Up or Down - February 21, 11PM ET Jun 17 $0 $0 +4%
Dogecoin Up or Down - June 16, 11:55PM-12:00AM ET Jun 17 $12 $0 +1%
Solana Up or Down - June 16, 8:00PM-12:00AM ET Jun 17 $50 $0 +1%
XRP Up or Down - June 16, 11:55PM-12:00AM ET Jun 17 $11 +$1 +6%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 11PM ET Jun 17 $50 +$2 +5%
XRP Up or Down - June 16, 8:00PM-12:00AM ET Jun 17 $49 +$5 +9%
XRP Up or Down - June 16, 4:30PM-4:45PM ET Jun 17 $18 $0 +0%
XRP Up or Down - June 16, 7:15PM-7:30PM ET Jun 17 $18 $0 +0%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 7:15PM-7:30PM ET Jun 17 $5 $0 +4%
Ethereum Up or Down - June 16, 2:15PM-2:20PM ET Jun 16 $10 $0 +3%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 1:45PM-2:00PM ET Jun 16 $18 $0 +0%
XRP Up or Down - June 16, 7AM ET Jun 16 $10 $0 +1%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 7:30AM-7:45AM ET Jun 16 $5 $0 +1%
Dogecoin Up or Down - June 16, 7:45AM-8:00AM ET Jun 16 $18 $0 +1%
XRP Up or Down - June 16, 7:15AM-7:30AM ET Jun 16 $18 $0 +1%
Dogecoin Up or Down - June 16, 7:15AM-7:30AM ET Jun 16 $18 $0 +2%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 7:15AM-7:30AM ET Jun 16 $17 +$1 +3%
Solana Up or Down - June 16, 6:00AM-6:05AM ET Jun 16 $12 $0 +1%
BNB Up or Down - June 16, 5:55AM-6:00AM ET Jun 16 $12 $0 +2%
Dogecoin Up or Down - June 16, 1:15AM-1:30AM ET Jun 16 $18 $0 +1%
XRP Up or Down - June 16, 1:15AM-1:30AM ET Jun 16 $17 +$1 +5%
BNB Up or Down - June 15, 11:25PM-11:30PM ET Jun 16 $6 $0 +0%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 11:25PM-11:30PM ET Jun 16 $12 $0 +0%
Ethereum Up or Down - June 15, 11:15PM-11:30PM ET Jun 16 $18 $0 +1%
Natural Gas (NG) Up or Down on June 15? Jun 15 $50 $0 +1%
Will the price of Ethereum be above $1,800 on June 15? Jun 15 $30 $0 +1%
Solana Up or Down - June 15, 12:30PM-12:45PM ET Jun 15 $17 +$1 +5%
XRP Up or Down - June 15, 3:15AM-3:30AM ET Jun 15 $18 $0 +1%
Solana Up or Down - June 15, 3:15AM-3:30AM ET Jun 15 $18 $0 +1%
BNB Up or Down - June 15, 12:00AM-12:15AM ET Jun 15 $18 $0 +1%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 14, 8:00PM-12:00AM ET Jun 15 $50 $0 +1%
Solana Up or Down - June 14, 11:20PM-11:25PM ET Jun 15 $8 $0 +5%
Ethereum Up or Down - June 14, 9PM ET Jun 15 $50 $0 +1%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 14, 7:45PM-7:50PM ET Jun 14 $12 $0 +1%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 14, 11:35AM-11:40AM ET Jun 14 $12 $0 +1%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 14, 11:15AM-11:30AM ET Jun 14 $18 $0 +1%
Dogecoin Up or Down - June 14, 11:15AM-11:30AM ET Jun 14 $18 $0 +1%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 14, 9:45AM-10:00AM ET Jun 14 $18 $0 +1%
Ethereum Up or Down - June 14, 9:45AM-10:00AM ET Jun 14 $18 $0 +1%
XRP Up or Down - June 14, 6:05AM-6:10AM ET Jun 14 $12 $0 +1%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 14, 6:15AM-6:30AM ET Jun 14 $18 $0 +1%
Solana Up or Down - June 14, 6:15AM-6:30AM ET Jun 14 $18 $0 +1%
BNB Up or Down - June 14, 6:15AM-6:30AM ET Jun 14 $18 $0 +1%
Dogecoin Up or Down - June 14, 6:15AM-6:30AM ET Jun 14 $18 $0 +1%
Ethereum Up or Down - June 14, 6:15AM-6:30AM ET Jun 14 $17 +$1 +3%
Ethereum Up or Down - June 14, 6:05AM-6:10AM ET Jun 14 $10 $0 +3%
Ethereum Up or Down - June 14, 4:30AM-4:35AM ET Jun 14 $12 $0 +1%
XRP Up or Down - June 14, 3AM ET Jun 14 $50 +$2 +4%
Dogecoin Up or Down - June 14, 2:15AM-2:30AM ET Jun 14 $18 $0 +1%
Latest 50 closed markets. Resolution = Polymarket fact (redeemable/curPrice), not a timer.
Latest trades by this wallet
Marketsidepricesizewhen
XRP Up or Down - June 17, 12AM ET BUY Up 99¢ $50 12m
Ethereum Up or Down - June 17, 12AM ET BUY Up 98¢ $49 12m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 17, 12AM ET BUY Up 99¢ $49 12m
XRP Up or Down - June 16, 11:55PM-12:00AM ET BUY Down 94¢ $11 1h
Dogecoin Up or Down - June 16, 11:55PM-12:00AM ET BUY Down 99¢ $12 1h
Solana Up or Down - June 16, 8:00PM-12:00AM ET BUY Up 99¢ $50 1h
XRP Up or Down - June 16, 8:00PM-12:00AM ET BUY Down 91¢ $49 1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 11PM ET BUY Down 95¢ $50 1h
XRP Up or Down - June 16, 7:15PM-7:30PM ET BUY Down 100¢ $18 5h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 7:15PM-7:30PM ET BUY Down 96¢ $5 5h
XRP Up or Down - June 16, 4:30PM-4:45PM ET BUY Up 100¢ $18 8h
Ethereum Up or Down - June 16, 2:15PM-2:20PM ET BUY Down 97¢ $10 10h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 1:45PM-2:00PM ET BUY Up 100¢ $18 11h
Dogecoin Up or Down - June 16, 7:45AM-8:00AM ET BUY Up 99¢ $18 17h
XRP Up or Down - June 16, 7AM ET BUY Down 99¢ $10 17h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 7:30AM-7:45AM ET BUY Down 99¢ $5 17h
XRP Up or Down - June 16, 7:15AM-7:30AM ET BUY Down 99¢ $18 17h
Dogecoin Up or Down - June 16, 7:15AM-7:30AM ET BUY Down 98¢ $18 17h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 7:15AM-7:30AM ET BUY Down 97¢ $17 17h
Solana Up or Down - June 16, 6:00AM-6:05AM ET BUY Up 99¢ $12 19h
BNB Up or Down - June 16, 5:55AM-6:00AM ET BUY Down 98¢ $12 19h
XRP Up or Down - June 16, 1:15AM-1:30AM ET BUY Up 95¢ $17 23h
Dogecoin Up or Down - June 16, 1:15AM-1:30AM ET BUY Up 99¢ $18 23h
BNB Up or Down - June 15, 11:25PM-11:30PM ET BUY Up 100¢ $6 25h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 11:25PM-11:30PM ET BUY Up 100¢ $12 25h
Ethereum Up or Down - June 15, 11:15PM-11:30PM ET BUY Up 99¢ $18 25h
Natural Gas (NG) Up or Down on June 15? BUY Up 99¢ $50 32h
Solana Up or Down - June 15, 12:30PM-12:45PM ET BUY Up 95¢ $17 36h
Will the price of Ethereum be above $1,800 on June 15? BUY Yes 99¢ $30 37h
Solana Up or Down - June 15, 3:15AM-3:30AM ET BUY Up 99¢ $18 45h
From the wallet’s activity history (Polymarket /activity), latest 30.
✓ Calibrated vs Polymarket: our portfolio calc $151.30 · official $149.93 (match) · 3500 history records