Wallet analysis

2026-06-29T06:31:51+00:00

trader profile + honest PnL by actual resolution and NET edge after slippage — worth copying?

0.0

score

84 0x849c…21d7 sports 25 markets active 1h ago coverage 18d

TRAPdo not copy sports specialist⚠ High turnover⚠ Small sample

✗ profit hinges on one bet (luck, not edge)! high turnover! limited sample (<25 closed)

Total PnL +$1,780 (+7%) realized +$1,942 · open −$162

Copy trade Watchlist View on Polymarket ↗

Gross ROI / mkt +35% what the leader earns

→−copy tax

Net edge / mkt -0% what you keep after slip

Net edge-0%after slip

Net WR12%break-even

Win rate21%5W / 19L

Whale WR50%big bets

Drawdown15%max

Avg bet$1,037per market

Trades / day23.6pace

Fees−$590est.

Kalshi-fit90%portable

Net worth$600now

Equity curve

realized PnL

1W 1M 3M YTD 1Y All

2 days+$687

7 days+$776

14 days+$776

30 days+$1,596

Cards show realized PnL over calendar windows (by resolution date). The “Total PnL” chart appears for wallets we track daily.

The copy-tax — evidence

gross is the leader · net is you

Net edge · by timeframe

gross → net

borderline — thin edge, slippage-sensitive

break-even: the trader needs > 10.5% gross ROI/market for the copier to break even

chance a trade nets +12%

net ROI/market (all)+21.8%

timeframe	markets	gross ROI	NET ROI	gross WR	NET WR	net PnL (wtd)
≤7d	13	+22.9%	+11.2%	23%	8%	-4.6%
≤30d	24	+34.6%	+21.8%	21%	12%	-3.8%
≤90d	24	+34.6%	+21.8%	21%	12%	-3.8%
all	24	+34.6%	+21.8%	21%	12%	-3.8%

gross = as the leader traded. net = what WE’d keep after slippage (we enter later, price moved). Net ROI ≤ 0 → copying loses even if the leader profits.

Slippage survival

net ROI/WR at slip

turnover23.6 tr/day

realistic slip~15%

edge survives to10%

copier slippage	NET ROI	NET WR	net PnL (wtd)
5% ideal	+21.8%	12%	-3.8%
10%	+10.1%	8%	-13.0%
15% ← realistic here	-0.5%	8%	-21.4%
20%	-10.3%	8%	-29.1%

Realistic slippage grows with turnover and leader size. If net ROI turns negative before the realistic slip — it’s a trap: leader profits, you lose.

Edge quality

honest signals — luck vs skill

Profit concentration

top 53% · top 2 87% profit hinges on 1 bet — luck, not edge

Edge freshness (90d)

90d ROI +6% 90d near zero / fading

Fragile wins

20% wins margin < slip solid win margins

Flat-copyable

equal-wt +35% · $-wt +6% works when copied flat

Big bets

big-bet WR 50% (≥$1,616) neutral

Persistence

early +44% → late +25% edge persists early→late

Add-ons / DCA

9.3 add-ons/market averages down — deposit killer

Win / loss size

+$392 vs −$73 · ×5.38 wins bigger than losses

Profit factor

×5.38 per $1 lost it wins $5.38

Copy size

≥ $700 mirror leader trades ≥ this size to copy only main ideas

Supporting detail

18d coverage

Net worth$600

Realized+$1,942

Unrealized−$162

Win rate (resolved)21%

Wins / losses5 / 19

Whale WR (big bets)50%

Est. fees paid−$590

Open positions1

Markets (closed)24 / 25

History coverage18d

Avg bet$1,037

Trades / day23.6

Drawdown15%

Kalshi-fit90%

Ledger

positions · history · trades

Positions 1 History 24 Trades

Open positions — marked to current price, like Polymarket

Market	outcome	entry	now	invested	value	unrealized PnL
Will France win the 2026 FIFA World Cup?	No	50¢	77¢	$300	$462	+$162 (+54%)
Will France win the 2026 FIFA World Cup?	Yes	50¢	23¢	$300	$138	−$162 (-54%)

Top-25 open positions by current value. Prices in cents = market-implied probability (50¢ = 50%).

Closed markets — PnL by actual resolution, newest first

Market	when	invested	PnL	ROI
LoL: T1 vs Karmine Corp - Game 3 Winner	Jun 29	$2,224	−$61	-3%
LoL: T1 vs Karmine Corp - Game 2 Winner	Jun 29	$3,522	+$134	+4%
LoL: T1 vs Karmine Corp (BO5) - Mid-Season Invitational Play-In	Jun 29	$1,616	−$59	-4%
LoL: Gen.G vs KT Rolster - Game 3 Winner	Jun 28	$6,707	+$673	+10%
LoL: Deep Cross Gaming vs Team Liquid - Game 2 Winner	Jun 28	$10	$0	+0%
LoL: Deep Cross Gaming vs Team Liquid - Game 4 Winner	Jun 28	$10	$0	+0%
LoL: T1 vs Karmine Corp - Game 1 Winner	Jun 28	$10	$0	+0%
LoL: Deep Cross Gaming vs Team Liquid - Game 3 Winner	Jun 28	$10	$0	+0%
LoL: Deep Cross Gaming vs Team Liquid (BO5) - Mid-Season Invitational	Jun 28	$10	$0	+0%
LoL: T1 vs Karmine Corp - Game 4 Winner	Jun 28	$10	$0	+0%
LoL: Deep Cross Gaming vs Team Liquid - Game 1 Winner	Jun 28	$10	$0	+0%
Will Türkiye win on 2026-06-25?	Jun 26	$31	+$89	+291%
LoL: T1 vs Team Liquid (BO5) - Mid-Season Invitational Play-In	Jun 22	$11	$0	-2%
Will T1 win the LCK 2026 season playoffs?	Jun 13	$1,062	$0	+0%
LoL: Gen.G vs KT Rolster - Game 2 Winner	Jun 13	$3,521	−$244	-7%
LoL: Gen.G vs KT Rolster - Game 1 Winner	Jun 13	$6,496	+$1,036	+16%
LoL: Gen.G vs KT Rolster (BO5) - LCK Road to MSI	Jun 13	$10	$0	+0%
LoL: Gen.G vs KT Rolster - Game 4 Winner	Jun 13	$10	$0	+0%
LoL: Hanwha Life Esports vs T1 - Game 4 Winner	Jun 12	$10	$0	+0%
LoL: Hanwha Life Esports vs T1 - Game 1 Winner	Jun 12	$10	$0	+0%
LoL: Hanwha Life Esports vs T1 - Game 3 Winner	Jun 12	$10	$0	+0%
LoL: Hanwha Life Esports vs T1 - Game 2 Winner	Jun 12	$10	$0	+0%
LoL: Hanwha Life Esports vs T1 (BO5) - LCK Road to MSI	Jun 12	$5	$0	-5%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 11, 1:35AM-1:40AM ET	Jun 11	$5	+$28	+529%

Latest 50 closed markets. Resolution = Polymarket fact (redeemable/curPrice), not a timer.

Latest trades by this wallet

Market	side	price	size	when
LoL: T1 vs Karmine Corp - Game 3 Winner	SELL Karmine Corp	32¢	$0	1h
LoL: T1 vs Karmine Corp - Game 3 Winner	SELL Karmine Corp	27¢	$123	1h
LoL: T1 vs Karmine Corp - Game 3 Winner	SELL Karmine Corp	27¢	$100	1h
LoL: T1 vs Karmine Corp - Game 3 Winner	SELL Karmine Corp	27¢	$3	1h
LoL: T1 vs Karmine Corp - Game 3 Winner	BUY Karmine Corp	19¢	$161	1h
LoL: T1 vs Karmine Corp - Game 3 Winner	SELL Karmine Corp	11¢	$0	1h
LoL: T1 vs Karmine Corp - Game 3 Winner	SELL Karmine Corp	11¢	$200	1h
LoL: T1 vs Karmine Corp - Game 3 Winner	SELL Karmine Corp	11¢	$4	1h
LoL: T1 vs Karmine Corp - Game 3 Winner	SELL Karmine Corp	11¢	$4	1h
LoL: T1 vs Karmine Corp - Game 3 Winner	SELL Karmine Corp	11¢	$22	1h
LoL: T1 vs Karmine Corp - Game 3 Winner	SELL Karmine Corp	11¢	$2	1h
LoL: T1 vs Karmine Corp - Game 3 Winner	SELL Karmine Corp	11¢	$4	1h
LoL: T1 vs Karmine Corp - Game 3 Winner	SELL Karmine Corp	11¢	$3	1h
LoL: T1 vs Karmine Corp - Game 3 Winner	SELL Karmine Corp	11¢	$2	1h
LoL: T1 vs Karmine Corp - Game 3 Winner	BUY Karmine Corp	12¢	$270	1h
LoL: T1 vs Karmine Corp - Game 3 Winner	SELL Karmine Corp	11¢	$20	1h
LoL: T1 vs Karmine Corp - Game 3 Winner	SELL Karmine Corp	11¢	$110	1h
LoL: T1 vs Karmine Corp - Game 3 Winner	SELL Karmine Corp	11¢	$138	1h
LoL: T1 vs Karmine Corp - Game 3 Winner	BUY Karmine Corp	11¢	$272	1h
LoL: T1 vs Karmine Corp - Game 3 Winner	SELL Karmine Corp	10¢	$83	1h
LoL: T1 vs Karmine Corp - Game 3 Winner	SELL Karmine Corp	10¢	$60	1h
LoL: T1 vs Karmine Corp - Game 3 Winner	SELL Karmine Corp	10¢	$7	1h
LoL: T1 vs Karmine Corp - Game 3 Winner	SELL Karmine Corp	10¢	$16	1h
LoL: T1 vs Karmine Corp - Game 3 Winner	SELL Karmine Corp	10¢	$1	1h
LoL: T1 vs Karmine Corp - Game 3 Winner	SELL Karmine Corp	11¢	$61	1h
LoL: T1 vs Karmine Corp - Game 3 Winner	SELL Karmine Corp	12¢	$8	1h
LoL: T1 vs Karmine Corp - Game 3 Winner	BUY Karmine Corp	13¢	$308	1h
LoL: T1 vs Karmine Corp - Game 3 Winner	SELL T1	89¢	$171	1h
LoL: T1 vs Karmine Corp - Game 3 Winner	SELL T1	89¢	$44	1h
LoL: T1 vs Karmine Corp - Game 3 Winner	SELL T1	89¢	$42	1h

From the wallet’s activity history (Polymarket /activity), latest 30.

✓ Calibrated vs Polymarket: our portfolio calc $600.00 · official $600.00 (match) · 474 history records