Wallet analysis

2026-06-19T23:49:14+00:00

trader profile + honest PnL by actual resolution and NET edge after slippage — worth copying?

4.5
score
84 0x8498…0e94 sports 135 markets active 2h ago coverage 407d
RISKYcopy with care
Total PnL +$939 (+22%) realized +$855 · open +$84
Gross ROI / mkt +42% what the leader earns
−copy tax
Net edge / mkt +28% what you keep after slip
Net edge+28%after slip
Net WR39%break-even
Win rate42%56W / 78L
Drawdown28%max
Avg bet$32per market
Trades / day0.9pace
Fees−$7est.
Kalshi-fit79%portable
Net worth$140now

Equity curve

realized PnL
1W 1M 3M YTD 1Y All
2 days$0
7 days$0
14 days$0
30 days$0
Cards show realized PnL over calendar windows (by resolution date). The “Total PnL” chart appears for wallets we track daily.

Categories

share · PnL
sports 48% +$707
other 12% +$767
world 12% −$349
crypto 12% −$77
politics 12% −$9
economics 3% +$33
tech 0% −$1
culture 0% −$8
Share of volume and PnL by niche (realized + unrealized). Shows where the trader actually earns — and where they bleed.

The copy-tax — evidence

gross is the leader · net is you

Net edge · by timeframe

gross → net
borderline — thin edge, slippage-sensitive
break-even: the trader needs > 10.5% gross ROI/market for the copier to break even
chance a trade nets +39%
net ROI/market (all)+28.0%
timeframemarkets gross ROINET ROI gross WRNET WR net PnL (wtd)
≤7d no closed markets
≤30d no closed markets
≤90d 9 -2.9% -12.2% 33% 33% -10.9%
all 134 +41.5% +28.0% 42% 39% +5.0%
<b>gross</b> = as the leader traded. <b>net</b> = what WE’d keep after slippage (we enter later, price moved). Net ROI ≤ 0 → copying loses even if the leader profits.

Slippage survival

net ROI/WR at slip
turnover0.9 tr/day
realistic slip~5%
edge survives to15%
copier slippageNET ROINET WRnet PnL (wtd)
5% ideal ← realistic here +28.0% 39% +5.0%
10% +15.7% 36% -5.0%
15% +4.6% 33% -14.2%
20% -5.7% 30% -22.6%
Realistic slippage grows with turnover and leader size. If net ROI turns negative before the realistic slip — it’s a <b>trap</b>: leader profits, you lose.

Edge quality

honest signals — luck vs skill
Profit concentration
top 23% · top 2 40% broad-based profit
Edge freshness (90d)
90d ROI -2% 90d near zero / fading
Fragile wins
7% wins margin < slip solid win margins
Flat-copyable
equal-wt +41% · $-wt +23% works when copied flat
Big bets
big-bet WR —% no data
Persistence
early +61% → late +22% edge persists early→late
Add-ons / DCA
2.1 add-ons/market adds to positions
Win / loss size
+$48 vs −$22 · ×2.18 wins bigger than losses
Profit factor
×1.57 per $1 lost it wins $1.57
Copy size
≥ $50 mirror leader trades ≥ this size to copy only main ideas

Supporting detail

407d coverage
Net worth$140
Realized+$855
Unrealized+$84
Win rate (resolved)42%
Wins / losses56 / 78
Est. fees paid−$7
Open positions1
Markets (closed)134 / 135
History coverage407d
Avg bet$32
Trades / day0.9
Drawdown28%
Kalshi-fit79%

Ledger

positions · history · trades
Positions 1 History 134 Trades
Open positions — marked to current price, like Polymarket
Marketoutcome entrynow investedvalue unrealized PnL
Counter-Strike: Vitality vs Team Falcons (BO3) - IEM Cologne Major Playoffs Team Falcons 40¢ 100¢ $56 $140 +$84 (+148%)
Top-25 open positions by current value. Prices in cents = market-implied probability (50¢ = 50%). Plus 32 resolved losing bets — already counted in realized PnL, so not shown here.
Closed markets — PnL by actual resolution, newest first
MarketwheninvestedPnLROI
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 16, 9:30PM-9:35PM ET May 17 $26 −$25 -95%
Will the Fed decrease interest rates by 25 bps after the June 2026 mee May 16 $10 −$10 -95%
Thunder vs. Lakers May 12 $44 −$43 -98%
Thunder vs. Lakers: 1H O/U 104.5 May 12 $30 −$30 -99%
76ers vs. Celtics May 03 $51 −$38 -75%
Cavaliers vs. Raptors May 02 $45 +$55 +122%
Lakers vs. Rockets May 02 $56 −$55 -99%
Pistons vs. Magic May 02 $87 +$63 +72%
Will Trump nominate Kevin Warsh as the next Fed chair? Apr 25 $22 +$78 +354%
US strikes Iran by February 28, 2026? Feb 28 $131 −$114 -87%
US strikes Iran by March 31, 2026? Feb 28 $53 −$35 -66%
Khamenei out as Supreme Leader of Iran by June 30? Feb 28 $50 −$2 -3%
Khamenei out as Supreme Leader of Iran by March 31? Feb 28 $200 −$200 -100%
Nuggets vs. Thunder: O/U 233.5 Feb 28 $9 +$81 +909%
Cavaliers vs. Pistons Feb 28 $3 +$17 +566%
Nuggets vs. Thunder Feb 28 $20 +$29 +144%
Bitcoin Up or Down - February 25, 5:15PM-5:20PM ET Feb 25 $8 −$8 -100%
Will Real Madrid CF vs. Sport Lisboa e Benfica end in a draw? Feb 25 $5 −$5 -100%
Will Real Madrid CF win on 2026-02-25? Feb 25 $32 +$49 +154%
Dota 2: BetBoom Team vs Xtreme Gaming (BO3) - DreamLeague Stage 2 Feb 25 $32 +$23 +71%
Counter-Strike: 100 Thieves vs ENCE (BO3) - DraculaN Playoffs Feb 25 $50 +$82 +163%
LoL: LNG Esports vs LGD Gaming (BO3) - LPL Group Nirvana Jan 21 $20 −$20 -100%
Fed decreases interest rates by 25 bps after January 2026 meeting? Jan 20 $10 −$10 -100%
Grizzlies vs. Lakers Jan 03 $35 −$3 -8%
Trail Blazers vs. Pelicans Jan 03 $40 −$9 -22%
Nets vs. Wizards Jan 03 $25 −$18 -74%
Spurs vs. Pacers Jan 02 $21 −$21 -100%
LoL: Invictus Gaming vs Top Esports (BO5) Dec 26 $7 −$7 -100%
Will Gold close between $4500 and $4600 at the end of 2025? Dec 26 $32 −$32 -100%
Rockets vs. Lakers: O/U 232.5 Dec 26 $14 +$16 +122%
Rockets vs. Lakers Dec 26 $40 +$33 +82%
TikTok sale announced in 2025? Dec 22 $10 −$1 -11%
Will Israel strike Gaza on December 21? Dec 21 $20 +$7 +36%
Spurs vs. Knicks Dec 21 $40 +$68 +170%
Spurs vs. Thunder Dec 14 $26 −$26 -100%
Will a new country join the Abraham Accords in 2025? Dec 02 $23 +$59 +256%
Will LLA hold the most seats in the Chamber of Deputies following the Nov 30 $9 +$11 +119%
Will Donald Trump visit China in 2025? Nov 30 $21 −$20 -95%
Counter-Strike: FURIA vs Team Falcons (BO5) Nov 16 $100 −$100 -100%
Warriors vs. Spurs Nov 15 $195 −$132 -68%
Clippers vs. Mavericks Nov 15 $18 −$17 -96%
Counter-Strike: FURIA vs Vitality - Map 2 Winner Nov 13 $40 −$40 -100%
Will Yann LeCun leave Meta this year? Nov 12 $13 −$3 -21%
Counter-Strike: FURIA vs paiN (BO3) Nov 12 $32 +$18 +56%
Will the government shutdown end November 17? Nov 12 $2 −$2 -100%
No change in Fed interest rates after December 2025 meeting? Nov 12 $27 −$27 -100%
Will Gemini 3.0 be released by November 15? Nov 10 $14 −$14 -100%
Will Gumayusi (Lee Min-hyeong) be named MVP in the 2025 League of Lege Nov 10 $85 +$459 +540%
Will Russia capture Pokrovsk train station by October 31? Oct 31 $20 +$30 +156%
Will Shinjirō Koizumi be the next Prime Minister of Japan? Oct 14 $41 +$66 +161%
Latest 50 closed markets. Resolution = Polymarket fact (redeemable/curPrice), not a timer.
Latest trades by this wallet
Marketsidepricesizewhen
Counter-Strike: Vitality vs Team Falcons (BO3) - IEM Cologne Major Pla BUY Team Falcons 39¢ $31 1h
Counter-Strike: Vitality vs Team Falcons (BO3) - IEM Cologne Major Pla BUY Team Falcons 42¢ $26 1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 16, 9:30PM-9:35PM ET BUY Up 23¢ $26 33d
Will the Fed decrease interest rates by 25 bps after the June 2026 mee BUY Yes $10 34d
Thunder vs. Lakers BUY Lakers 18¢ $13 38d
Thunder vs. Lakers BUY Lakers 18¢ $31 38d
Thunder vs. Lakers: 1H O/U 104.5 BUY Over 51¢ $30 38d
76ers vs. Celtics SELL Celtics $13 47d
76ers vs. Celtics BUY Celtics 31¢ $51 47d
Lakers vs. Rockets BUY Rockets 27¢ $27 48d
Lakers vs. Rockets BUY Rockets 25¢ $29 48d
Cavaliers vs. Raptors BUY Raptors 40¢ $16 48d
Cavaliers vs. Raptors BUY Raptors 40¢ $4 48d
Pistons vs. Magic SELL Pistons 100¢ $150 48d
Cavaliers vs. Raptors BUY Raptors 50¢ $25 48d
Pistons vs. Magic BUY Pistons 58¢ $87 49d
US strikes Iran by February 28, 2026? BUY No 32¢ $36 111d
US strikes Iran by February 28, 2026? BUY No 30¢ $50 111d
US strikes Iran by March 31, 2026? SELL No 10¢ $18 111d
US strikes Iran by February 28, 2026? SELL No 30¢ $17 111d
US strikes Iran by March 31, 2026? BUY No 29¢ $53 111d
Khamenei out as Supreme Leader of Iran by June 30? SELL No 60¢ $48 111d
Khamenei out as Supreme Leader of Iran by March 31? BUY No 75¢ $200 111d
Khamenei out as Supreme Leader of Iran by June 30? BUY No 62¢ $50 111d
US strikes Iran by February 28, 2026? BUY No 79¢ $45 111d
Nuggets vs. Thunder: O/U 233.5 SELL Over 99¢ $74 111d
Nuggets vs. Thunder: O/U 233.5 SELL Over 71¢ $1 111d
Cavaliers vs. Pistons SELL Pistons 100¢ $20 111d
Nuggets vs. Thunder SELL Thunder 100¢ $50 111d
Nuggets vs. Thunder: O/U 233.5 SELL Over 71¢ $14 111d
From the wallet’s activity history (Polymarket /activity), latest 30.
Calibrated vs Polymarket: our portfolio calc $139.93 · official $139.93 (match) · 414 history records