Wallet analysis

2026-06-20T23:44:57+00:00

trader profile + honest PnL by actual resolution and NET edge after slippage — worth copying?

0.0
score
84 0x8495…df87 sports 1176 markets active 0h ago coverage 325d
TRAPdo not copy sports specialistFading edge⚠ High turnover⚠ Covers last 325d only
✗ negative after realistic slippage✗ 90-day edge negative — edge has died! high turnover
Total PnL −$2,210 (-3%) realized −$2,210 · open +$0
Gross ROI / mkt -3% what the leader earns
−copy tax
Net edge / mkt -19% what you keep after slip
Net edge-19%after slip
Net WR44%break-even
Win rate79%931W / 245L
Drawdown100%max
Avg bet$69per market
Trades / day9.1pace
Fees−$78est.
Kalshi-fit96%portable
Net worth$0now

Equity curve

realized PnL
1W 1M 3M YTD 1Y All
2 days−$30
7 days+$9
14 days−$1,029
30 days−$765
Cards show realized PnL over calendar windows (by resolution date). The “Total PnL” chart appears for wallets we track daily.

Categories

share · PnL
sports 98% −$2,228
other 2% +$50
world 0% −$10
politics 0% +$2
crypto 0% −$7
Share of volume and PnL by niche (realized + unrealized). Shows where the trader actually earns — and where they bleed.

The copy-tax — evidence

gross is the leader · net is you

Net edge · by timeframe

gross → net
negative after costs — do not copy
break-even: the trader needs > 10.5% gross ROI/market for the copier to break even
chance a trade nets +44%
net ROI/market (all)-12.4%
timeframemarkets gross ROINET ROI gross WRNET WR net PnL (wtd)
≤7d 25 -11.3% -19.8% 76% 52% -8.7%
≤30d 104 -25.9% -32.9% 62% 33% -22.6%
≤90d 379 -7.1% -16.0% 79% 41% -16.8%
all 1176 -3.2% -12.4% 79% 44% -12.0%
<b>gross</b> = as the leader traded. <b>net</b> = what WE’d keep after slippage (we enter later, price moved). Net ROI ≤ 0 → copying loses even if the leader profits.

Slippage survival

net ROI/WR at slip
turnover9.1 tr/day
realistic slip~9%
edge survives to0%
copier slippageNET ROINET WRnet PnL (wtd)
5% ideal ← realistic here -12.4% 44% -12.0%
10% -20.8% 23% -20.4%
15% -28.5% 12% -28.1%
20% -35.5% 7% -35.1%
Realistic slippage grows with turnover and leader size. If net ROI turns negative before the realistic slip — it’s a <b>trap</b>: leader profits, you lose.

Edge quality

honest signals — luck vs skill
Profit concentration
top 2% · top 2 3% broad-based profit
Edge freshness (90d)
90d ROI -8% edge died — 90d negative
Fragile wins
44% wins margin < slip thin win margins
Flat-copyable
equal-wt -3% · $-wt -3% works when copied flat
Big bets
big-bet WR —% no data
Persistence
early +12% → late -19% edge faded
Add-ons / DCA
1.6 add-ons/market adds to positions
Win / loss size
+$7 vs −$35 · ×0.19 wins small, loses big
Profit factor
×0.74 loses more than it wins
Copy size
≥ $50 mirror leader trades ≥ this size to copy only main ideas

Supporting detail

325d coverage
Net worth$0
Realized−$2,210
Unrealized+$0
Win rate (resolved)79%
Wins / losses931 / 245
Est. fees paid−$78
Open positions0
Markets (closed)1176 / 1176
History coverage325d ⚠
Avg bet$69
Trades / day9.1
Drawdown100%
Kalshi-fit96%

Ledger

positions · history · trades
Positions 0 History 1176 Trades
no open positions (7 resolved losses — in realized PnL)
Closed markets — PnL by actual resolution, newest first
MarketwheninvestedPnLROI
Asuncion 2: Nick Hardt vs Juan Estevez Jun 20 $38 +$2 +6%
San Francisco Giants vs. Miami Marlins Jun 20 $96 +$4 +4%
Germany vs. Côte d'Ivoire: Both Teams to Score Jun 20 $79 +$17 +22%
Germany to score first vs. Côte d'Ivoire? Jun 20 $13 −$13 -100%
Halle Open: Alexander Zverev vs Taylor Fritz Jun 20 $15 −$15 -100%
Lexus Eastbourne Open, Qualification: Matteo Arnaldi vs Alastair Gray Jun 20 $15 +$5 +30%
Lexus Eastbourne Open, Qualification: Camila Osorio vs Ajla Tomljanovi Jun 20 $100 +$3 +3%
Türkiye vs. Paraguay: O/U 1.5 Jun 20 $40 −$40 -100%
Brazil vs. Haiti: O/U 3.5 Jun 20 $3 +$1 +27%
Will Mexico win on 2026-06-18? Jun 19 $44 +$5 +12%
Will Ghana win on 2026-06-17? Jun 18 $49 +$1 +2%
Poznan: Facundo Acosta vs Hynek Barton Jun 17 $38 +$2 +6%
Will Argentina win on 2026-06-16? Jun 17 $81 +$19 +24%
Los Angeles Sparks vs. Golden State Valkyries Jun 16 $107 +$3 +3%
Exact Score: IR Iran 3 - 3 New Zealand? Jun 16 $18 +$2 +12%
IR Iran vs. New Zealand: O/U 1.5 Jun 16 $93 +$11 +12%
Will IR Iran win on 2026-06-15? Jun 16 $8 −$8 -100%
Sweden vs. Tunisia: O/U 1.5 Jun 15 $77 +$9 +12%
Spread: Golden Knights (-1.5) Jun 15 $11 +$4 +37%
Côte d'Ivoire vs. Ecuador: O/U 0.5 Jun 15 $17 +$3 +18%
Will Netherlands win on 2026-06-14? Jun 14 $7 −$7 -100%
Australia vs. Türkiye: O/U 1.5 Jun 14 $6 +$2 +24%
Will Haiti vs. Scotland end in a draw? Jun 14 $8 +$2 +23%
Houston Astros vs. Kansas City Royals Jun 14 $8 −$8 -100%
Indiana Fever vs. Connecticut Sun Jun 14 $11 +$4 +41%
Will Switzerland win on 2026-06-13? Jun 13 $7 −$7 -100%
Will Korea Republic win on 2026-06-11? Jun 12 $55 +$5 +9%
Golden Knights vs. Hurricanes Jun 12 $14 +$2 +11%
Spread: Golden Knights (-1.5) Jun 10 $6 +$2 +27%
Modena: Tamara Zidansek vs Federica Urgesi Jun 09 $89 +$3 +3%
Seattle Storm vs. Las Vegas Aces Jun 09 $85 +$4 +5%
Indiana Fever vs. Washington Mystics Jun 09 $80 +$5 +6%
UFC Fight Night: Cody Brundage vs. Andre Petroski (Middleweight, Preli Jun 07 $8 −$8 -100%
Cagliari: Matteo Arnaldi vs Nuno Borges Jun 07 $45 −$45 -100%
Will Pumas de la UNAM vs. CF Cruz Azul end in a draw? Jun 07 $9 −$9 -100%
Athletics vs. Chicago Cubs Jun 07 $48 −$48 -100%
Spread: Minnesota Twins (-1.5) Jun 07 $17 −$17 -100%
Pistons vs. Magic Jun 07 $87 −$87 -100%
Detroit Tigers vs. Kansas City Royals Jun 07 $6 −$6 -100%
Rockets vs. Lakers Jun 07 $9 −$9 -100%
Roland Garros WTA: Aryna Sabalenka vs Diana Shnaider Jun 07 $113 −$113 -100%
New York Mets vs. Washington Nationals Jun 07 $2 −$2 -100%
Indiana Fever vs. New York Liberty Jun 07 $3 −$3 -100%
Spread: Spurs (-4.5) Jun 07 $3 −$3 -100%
Kansas City Royals vs. Cincinnati Reds Jun 07 $72 −$72 -100%
Hurricanes vs. Canadiens: O/U 5.5 Jun 07 $4 −$4 -100%
Saint-Malo: Jessika Ponchet vs Viktorija Golubic Jun 07 $7 −$7 -100%
Will San Jose Earthquakes vs. FC Dallas end in a draw? Jun 07 $4 −$4 -100%
Tunis: Tristan Boyer vs Inaki Montes Jun 07 $17 −$17 -100%
Francavilla: Gustavo Heide vs Facundo Acosta Jun 07 $16 −$16 -100%
Latest 50 closed markets. Resolution = Polymarket fact (redeemable/curPrice), not a timer.
Latest trades by this wallet
Marketsidepricesizewhen
Asuncion 2: Nick Hardt vs Juan Estevez SELL Nick Hardt 100¢ $40 2m
Asuncion 2: Nick Hardt vs Juan Estevez BUY Nick Hardt 94¢ $38 22m
San Francisco Giants vs. Miami Marlins SELL Miami Marlins 100¢ $100 24m
San Francisco Giants vs. Miami Marlins BUY Miami Marlins 96¢ $96 34m
Germany vs. Côte d'Ivoire: Both Teams to Score SELL Yes 100¢ $96 1h
Germany vs. Côte d'Ivoire: Both Teams to Score BUY Yes 82¢ $68 3h
Germany vs. Côte d'Ivoire: Both Teams to Score BUY Yes 82¢ $2 3h
Germany vs. Côte d'Ivoire: Both Teams to Score BUY Yes 82¢ $9 3h
Germany to score first vs. Côte d'Ivoire? BUY Yes 67¢ $13 3h
Halle Open: Alexander Zverev vs Taylor Fritz BUY Alexander Zverev 74¢ $15 10h
Lexus Eastbourne Open, Qualification: Matteo Arnaldi vs Alastair Gray SELL Matteo Arnaldi 100¢ $20 10h
Lexus Eastbourne Open, Qualification: Matteo Arnaldi vs Alastair Gray BUY Matteo Arnaldi 77¢ $15 11h
Lexus Eastbourne Open, Qualification: Camila Osorio vs Ajla Tomljanovi SELL Ajla Tomljanovic 100¢ $103 11h
Lexus Eastbourne Open, Qualification: Camila Osorio vs Ajla Tomljanovi BUY Ajla Tomljanovic 97¢ $100 11h
Türkiye vs. Paraguay: O/U 1.5 BUY Over 90¢ $40 20h
Brazil vs. Haiti: O/U 3.5 SELL Over 88¢ $4 22h
Brazil vs. Haiti: O/U 3.5 BUY Over 69¢ $3 22h
Will Mexico win on 2026-06-18? SELL Yes 100¢ $50 44h
Will Mexico win on 2026-06-18? BUY Yes 89¢ $44 44h
Will Ghana win on 2026-06-17? SELL Yes 100¢ $50 2d
Will Ghana win on 2026-06-17? BUY Yes 98¢ $49 2d
Poznan: Facundo Acosta vs Hynek Barton BUY Facundo Acosta 94¢ $38 3d
Will Argentina win on 2026-06-16? BUY Yes 81¢ $38 3d
Will Argentina win on 2026-06-16? BUY Yes 81¢ $4 3d
Will Argentina win on 2026-06-16? BUY Yes 81¢ $2 3d
Will Argentina win on 2026-06-16? BUY Yes 81¢ $9 3d
Will Argentina win on 2026-06-16? BUY Yes 81¢ $2 3d
Will Argentina win on 2026-06-16? BUY Yes 81¢ $12 3d
Will Argentina win on 2026-06-16? BUY Yes 81¢ $12 3d
Los Angeles Sparks vs. Golden State Valkyries BUY Golden State Valkyries 97¢ $107 4d
From the wallet’s activity history (Polymarket /activity), latest 30.
Calibrated vs Polymarket: our portfolio calc $0.00 · official $0.00 (match) · 3500 history records