Wallet analysis

2026-06-14T22:34:47+00:00

trader profile + honest PnL by actual resolution and NET edge after slippage — worth copying?

0.0
score
84 0x8494…814a sports 176 markets active 0h ago coverage 32d
TRAPdo not copy sports specialistFresh edge⚠ High turnover
Total PnL +$109 (+0%) realized +$47 · open −$30
Gross ROI / mkt -0% what the leader earns
−copy tax
Net edge / mkt -23% what you keep after slip
Net edge-23%after slip
Net WR3%break-even
Win rate36%63W / 110L
Whale WR0%big bets
Drawdown100%max
Avg bet$210per market
Trades / day25.8pace
Fees−$656est.
Kalshi-fit88%portable
Net worth$928now

Equity curve

realized PnL
1W 1M 3M YTD 1Y All
2 days+$256
7 days+$401
14 days+$392
30 days+$47
Cards show realized PnL over calendar windows (by resolution date). The “Total PnL” chart appears for wallets we track daily.

Categories

share · PnL
sports 73% +$163
other 10% −$30
world 8% −$2
politics 4% −$13
culture 1% +$3
tech 1% −$35
economics 1% −$4
crypto 1% −$64
Share of volume and PnL by niche (realized + unrealized). Shows where the trader actually earns — and where they bleed.

The copy-tax — evidence

gross is the leader · net is you

Net edge · by timeframe

gross → net
negative after costs — do not copy
break-even: the trader needs > 10.5% gross ROI/market for the copier to break even
chance a trade nets +3%
net ROI/market (all)-9.8%
timeframemarkets gross ROINET ROI gross WRNET WR net PnL (wtd)
≤7d 107 +1.2% -8.4% 49% 5% -7.8%
≤30d 171 -0.3% -9.8% 37% 3% -9.4%
≤90d 173 -0.3% -9.8% 36% 3% -9.4%
all 173 -0.3% -9.8% 36% 3% -9.4%
<b>gross</b> = as the leader traded. <b>net</b> = what WE’d keep after slippage (we enter later, price moved). Net ROI ≤ 0 → copying loses even if the leader profits.

Slippage survival

net ROI/WR at slip
turnover25.8 tr/day
realistic slip~13%
edge survives to0%
copier slippageNET ROINET WRnet PnL (wtd)
5% ideal -9.8% 3% -9.4%
10% ← realistic here -18.4% 2% -18.1%
15% -26.3% 1% -26.0%
20% -33.5% 1% -33.2%
Realistic slippage grows with turnover and leader size. If net ROI turns negative before the realistic slip — it’s a <b>trap</b>: leader profits, you lose.

Edge quality

honest signals — luck vs skill
Profit concentration
top 34% · top 2 45% concentrated in a few bets
Edge freshness (90d)
90d ROI +0% 90d near zero / fading
Fragile wins
92% wins margin < slip most wins thinner than slippage → losses for you
Flat-copyable
equal-wt -0% · $-wt +0% edge needs big-bet sizing — not flat-copyable
Big bets
big-bet WR 0% (≥$500) big bets weaker
Persistence
early -3% → late +3% mixed
Add-ons / DCA
1.5 add-ons/market flat bettor — clean entries
Win / loss size
+$9 vs −$5 · ×1.91 wins bigger than losses
Profit factor
×1.09 profit barely above losses
Copy size
≥ $50 mirror leader trades ≥ this size to copy only main ideas

Supporting detail

32d coverage
Net worth$928
Realized+$47
Unrealized−$30
Win rate (resolved)36%
Wins / losses63 / 110
Whale WR (big bets)0%
Est. fees paid−$656
Open positions3
Markets (closed)173 / 176
History coverage32d
Avg bet$210
Trades / day25.8
Drawdown100%
Kalshi-fit88%

Ledger

positions · history · trades
Positions 3 History 173 Trades
Open positions — marked to current price, like Polymarket
Marketoutcome entrynow investedvalue unrealized PnL
Côte d'Ivoire vs. Ecuador: Both Teams to Score in First Half No 85¢ 86¢ $395 $398 +$2 (+1%)
LoL: Saigon Warriors vs Top Esports Challenger (BO3) - Asia Masters Last Chance Qualifier Top Esports Challenger 64¢ 62¢ $320 $308 −$12 (-4%)
Exact Score: Any Other Score? No 56¢ 52¢ $243 $223 −$20 (-8%)
Top-25 open positions by current value. Prices in cents = market-implied probability (50¢ = 50%).
Closed markets — PnL by actual resolution, newest first
MarketwheninvestedPnLROI
Côte d'Ivoire vs. Ecuador: Ecuador O/U 1.5 Jun 14 $350 −$3 -1%
Côte d'Ivoire to win the second half? Jun 14 $29 $0 -0%
Germany vs. Curaçao: 2nd Half O/U 5.5 Total Corners Jun 14 $300 +$187 +62%
Netherlands vs. Japan: Japan O/U 3.5 Corners Jun 14 $280 $0 -0%
Netherlands vs. Japan: Netherlands 1st Half O/U 0.5 Jun 14 $18 $0 +2%
Netherlands vs. Japan: Both Teams to Score in First Half Jun 14 $390 +$10 +3%
LoL: LYON vs Team Liquid - Game 1 Winner Jun 14 $245 +$5 +2%
LoL: LYON vs Team Liquid (BO5) - LCS Playoffs Jun 14 $275 $0 -0%
Germany vs. Curaçao: Germany O/U 3.5 Jun 14 $280 +$26 +9%
LoL: Galions vs Eintracht Spandau - Game 2 Winner Jun 14 $170 $0 -0%
Germany vs. Curaçao: Neither team to score first? Jun 14 $74 $0 -0%
Germany vs. Curaçao: Both Teams to Score in Second Half Jun 14 $59 $0 -0%
Curaçao leading at halftime? Jun 14 $6 +$5 +76%
Exact Score: Any Other Score? Jun 14 $23 +$1 +2%
LoL: Galions vs Eintracht Spandau - Game 1 Winner Jun 14 $170 $0 -0%
Exact Score: Any Other Score? Jun 14 $435 +$5 +1%
Netherlands vs. Japan: O/U 10.5 Total Corners Jun 14 $27 $0 +2%
Counter-Strike: BetBoom Team vs Vitality - Map 2 Winner Jun 14 $130 +$17 +13%
Germany vs. Curaçao: Germany O/U 2.5 Jun 14 $100 +$2 +2%
Curaçao to score first vs. Germany? Jun 14 $415 +$8 +2%
Haiti vs. Scotland: Draw at halftime? Jun 13 $180 +$5 +3%
Germany vs. Curaçao: Germany O/U 0.5 Jun 13 $477 +$7 +2%
Brazil vs. Morocco: 1st Half O/U 0.5 Jun 13 $320 −$3 -1%
Morocco to win the second half? Jun 13 $210 −$1 -0%
Exact Score: Brazil 2 - 1 Morocco? Jun 13 $50 −$1 -3%
Brazil vs. Morocco: O/U 8.5 Total Corners Jun 13 $260 $0 -0%
Switzerland to win the second half? Jun 13 $80 $0 -0%
Vinícius Júnior: 1+ assists Jun 13 $138 −$23 -16%
Brazil vs. Morocco: Both Teams to Score Jun 13 $230 −$4 -2%
Qatar vs. Switzerland: Neither team to score first? Jun 13 $960 $0 -0%
Exact Score: Any Other Score? Jun 13 $16 $0 +2%
Games Total: O/U 2.5 Jun 13 $3 $0 +2%
Map 1 Rounds Handicap: Natus Vincere (-3.5) vs TheMongolz (+3.5) Jun 13 $290 +$6 +2%
Exact Score: Qatar 0 - 3 Switzerland? Jun 13 $179 +$2 +1%
Game Handicap: GEN (-1.5) vs KT Rolster (+1.5) Jun 13 $100 $0 -0%
Counter-Strike: Natus Vincere vs TheMongolz - Map 2 Winner Jun 13 $19 $0 -0%
Games Total: O/U 3.5 Jun 13 $255 $0 -0%
Counter-Strike: RUSTEC vs HEROIC Academy (BO3) - CCT Europe Series #4 Jun 13 $111 +$2 +2%
Map Handicap: NAVI (-1.5) vs TheMongolz (+1.5) Jun 12 $49 +$1 +3%
Counter-Strike: Natus Vincere vs TheMongolz (BO3) - IEM Cologne Major Jun 12 $186 +$3 +1%
Game Handicap: LOS (-1.5) vs Vivo Keyd Stars (+1.5) Jun 12 $29 +$1 +3%
United States vs. Paraguay: Both Teams to Score in First Half Jun 12 $36 $0 +1%
LoL: Eintracht Spandau vs Anubis Gaming (BO3) - EMEA Masters Group D Jun 12 $405 $0 -0%
LoL: Eintracht Spandau vs Anubis Gaming - Game 1 Winner Jun 12 $350 $0 -0%
Canada vs. Bosnia-Herzegovina: Canada O/U 5.5 Corners Jun 12 $26 +$1 +2%
Counter-Strike: GenOne vs Virtus.pro (BO3) - European Pro League Serie Jun 12 $18 $0 -0%
Map Handicap: NAVI (-1.5) vs Legacy (+1.5) Jun 12 $2 $0 -0%
LoL: Misa Esports vs E WIE EINFACH E-SPORTS (BO3) - EMEA Masters Group Jun 12 $100 +$5 +5%
LoL: Hanwha Life Esports vs T1 - Game 3 Winner Jun 12 $250 $0 -0%
Map Handicap: FURIA (-1.5) vs MOUZ (+1.5) Jun 12 $58 +$5 +9%
Latest 50 closed markets. Resolution = Polymarket fact (redeemable/curPrice), not a timer.
Latest trades by this wallet
Marketsidepricesizewhen
Côte d'Ivoire vs. Ecuador: Both Teams to Score in First Half SELL No 86¢ $4 1m
Côte d'Ivoire vs. Ecuador: Both Teams to Score in First Half SELL No 86¢ $4 5m
Côte d'Ivoire vs. Ecuador: Both Teams to Score in First Half SELL No 86¢ $1 15m
Côte d'Ivoire vs. Ecuador: Both Teams to Score in First Half SELL No 86¢ $20 20m
Côte d'Ivoire vs. Ecuador: Ecuador O/U 1.5 SELL Under 70¢ $347 1h
Côte d'Ivoire vs. Ecuador: Both Teams to Score in First Half BUY No 85¢ $425 1h
Côte d'Ivoire vs. Ecuador: Ecuador O/U 1.5 BUY Under 70¢ $350 1h
Côte d'Ivoire to win the second half? SELL No 74¢ $8 1h
Côte d'Ivoire to win the second half? SELL No 74¢ $20 1h
LoL: Saigon Warriors vs Top Esports Challenger (BO3) - Asia Masters La BUY Top Esports Challenger 64¢ $320 1h
Côte d'Ivoire to win the second half? SELL No 74¢ $1 2h
Exact Score: Any Other Score? SELL No 57¢ $2 3h
Exact Score: Any Other Score? BUY No 56¢ $245 3h
Germany vs. Curaçao: 2nd Half O/U 5.5 Total Corners SELL Under 100¢ $472 3h
Netherlands vs. Japan: Japan O/U 3.5 Corners SELL Over 56¢ $192 3h
Netherlands vs. Japan: Japan O/U 3.5 Corners SELL Over 56¢ $44 3h
Netherlands vs. Japan: Japan O/U 3.5 Corners SELL Over 56¢ $12 3h
Netherlands vs. Japan: Netherlands 1st Half O/U 0.5 SELL Over 47¢ $0 3h
Netherlands vs. Japan: Japan O/U 3.5 Corners SELL Over 56¢ $32 3h
Netherlands vs. Japan: Netherlands 1st Half O/U 0.5 SELL Over 47¢ $18 4h
Netherlands vs. Japan: Netherlands 1st Half O/U 0.5 BUY Over 46¢ $18 4h
Netherlands vs. Japan: Both Teams to Score in First Half SELL No 80¢ $400 4h
Netherlands vs. Japan: Japan O/U 3.5 Corners BUY Over 56¢ $280 4h
Germany vs. Curaçao: 2nd Half O/U 5.5 Total Corners SELL Under 60¢ $2 4h
Netherlands vs. Japan: Both Teams to Score in First Half BUY No 78¢ $390 4h
LoL: LYON vs Team Liquid - Game 1 Winner SELL LYON 50¢ $243 4h
LoL: LYON vs Team Liquid - Game 1 Winner SELL LYON 50¢ $7 4h
LoL: LYON vs Team Liquid - Game 1 Winner BUY LYON 49¢ $245 5h
Côte d'Ivoire to win the second half? BUY No 74¢ $29 5h
Germany vs. Curaçao: 2nd Half O/U 5.5 Total Corners SELL Under 60¢ $3 5h
From the wallet’s activity history (Polymarket /activity), latest 30.
Calibrated vs Polymarket: our portfolio calc $928.50 · official $928.50 (match) · 902 history records