Wallet analysis

2026-06-17T09:39:34+00:00

trader profile + honest PnL by actual resolution and NET edge after slippage — worth copying?

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score
84 0x8493…ad52 sports 734 markets active 0h ago coverage 76d
TRAPdo not copy sports specialistFresh edge⚠ High turnover
✗ negative after realistic slippage! high turnover
Total PnL −$109 (-3%) realized −$109 · open +$0
Copy trade Watchlist View on Polymarket ↗
Gross ROI / mkt -2% what the leader earns
→−copy tax
Net edge / mkt -19% what you keep after slip
Net edge-19%after slip
Net WR64%break-even
Win rate66%483W / 249L
Drawdown100%max
Avg bet$5per market
Trades / day11.9pace
Fees−$32est.
Kalshi-fit99%portable
Net worth$10now

Equity curve

realized PnL
1W 1M 3M YTD 1Y All
2 days+$17
7 days−$52
14 days−$73
30 days−$133
Cards show realized PnL over calendar windows (by resolution date). The “Total PnL” chart appears for wallets we track daily.

Categories

share · PnL
sports 93% −$77
crypto 5% −$23
other 2% −$42
Share of volume and PnL by niche (realized + unrealized). Shows where the trader actually earns — and where they bleed.

The copy-tax — evidence

gross is the leader · net is you

Net edge · by timeframe

gross → net
negative after costs — do not copy
break-even: the trader needs > 10.5% gross ROI/market for the copier to break even
chance a trade nets +64%
net ROI/market (all)-11.8%
timeframemarkets gross ROINET ROI gross WRNET WR net PnL (wtd)
≤7d 123 -4.4% -13.5% 64% 63% -15.9%
≤30d 506 -0.8% -10.3% 70% 69% -12.8%
≤90d 732 -2.5% -11.8% 66% 64% -12.3%
all 732 -2.5% -11.8% 66% 64% -12.3%
<b>gross</b> = as the leader traded. <b>net</b> = what WE’d keep after slippage (we enter later, price moved). Net ROI ≤ 0 → copying loses even if the leader profits.

Slippage survival

net ROI/WR at slip
turnover11.9 tr/day
realistic slip~9%
edge survives to0%
copier slippageNET ROINET WRnet PnL (wtd)
5% ideal ← realistic here -11.8% 64% -12.3%
10% -20.2% 40% -20.7%
15% -27.9% 21% -28.3%
20% -35.0% 18% -35.4%
Realistic slippage grows with turnover and leader size. If net ROI turns negative before the realistic slip — it’s a <b>trap</b>: leader profits, you lose.

Edge quality

honest signals — luck vs skill
Profit concentration
top 1% · top 2 2% broad-based profit
Edge freshness (90d)
90d ROI -4% 90d near zero / fading
Fragile wins
4% wins margin < slip solid win margins
Flat-copyable
equal-wt -2% · $-wt -4% works when copied flat
Big bets
big-bet WR —% no data
Persistence
early -6% → late +1% mixed
Add-ons / DCA
1.1 add-ons/market flat bettor — clean entries
Win / loss size
+$2 vs −$4 · ×0.45 wins small, loses big
Profit factor
×0.87 loses more than it wins
Copy size
≥ $50 mirror leader trades ≥ this size to copy only main ideas

Supporting detail

76d coverage
Net worth$10
Realized−$109
Unrealized+$0
Win rate (resolved)66%
Wins / losses483 / 249
Est. fees paid−$32
Open positions2
Markets (closed)732 / 734
History coverage76d
Avg bet$5
Trades / day11.9
Drawdown100%
Kalshi-fit99%

Ledger

positions · history · trades
Positions 2 History 732 Trades
Open positions — marked to current price, like Polymarket
Marketoutcome entrynow investedvalue unrealized PnL
Games Total: O/U 2.5 Under 52¢ 54¢ $5 $5 +$0 (+3%)
Games Total: O/U 2.5 Under 56¢ 55¢ $5 $5 −$0 (-3%)
Top-25 open positions by current value. Prices in cents = market-implied probability (50¢ = 50%). Plus 87 resolved losing bets — already counted in realized PnL, so not shown here.
Closed markets — PnL by actual resolution, newest first
MarketwheninvestedPnLROI
Kylian Mbappé: 1+ goals Jun 16 $10 +$9 +84%
Games Total: O/U 2.5 Jun 16 $5 +$4 +73%
Counter-Strike: K27 vs 100 Thieves (BO3) - NODWIN Clutch Series Playof Jun 16 $5 +$1 +27%
Games Total: O/U 2.5 Jun 16 $5 +$4 +83%
Counter-Strike: Clutchain vs LPH Gaming (BO3) - United21 Group B Jun 16 $5 +$2 +31%
Counter-Strike: illwill vs ex-RUBY (BO3) - CCT Europe Series #4 Group Jun 16 $5 +$1 +26%
Counter-Strike: HOTU vs TDK (BO3) - NODWIN Clutch Series Playoffs Jun 16 $5 +$1 +21%
Counter-Strike: MARKandLARRY vs DXA Esports (BO3) - Dfrag Open Series Jun 16 $5 −$5 -100%
Games Total: O/U 2.5 Jun 15 $5 −$5 -99%
Counter-Strike: SPARTA vs G2 Ares (BO3) - CCT Europe Series #4 Group S Jun 15 $5 +$1 +24%
Games Total: O/U 2.5 Jun 15 $5 +$5 +90%
Games Total: O/U 2.5 Jun 15 $5 +$5 +93%
Lamine Yamal: 1+ goals Jun 15 $5 −$5 -98%
Games Total: O/U 2.5 Jun 15 $5 +$4 +86%
Games Total: O/U 2.5 Jun 15 $5 −$1 -18%
Games Total: O/U 2.5 Jun 15 $5 +$1 +25%
Counter-Strike: Millennium Esports vs Coalesce (BO3) - United21 Group Jun 15 $5 −$5 -94%
Counter-Strike: Marsborne vs Iowa Stormboar (BO3) - NSTLGA League Play Jun 15 $5 +$1 +27%
Will Netherlands vs. Japan end in a draw? Jun 15 $5 +$9 +180%
Games Total: O/U 2.5 Jun 14 $5 +$6 +114%
LoL: LYON vs Team Liquid - Game 3 Winner Jun 14 $5 −$5 -98%
Counter-Strike: FULLPOWER vs FUT Turkuaz (BO3) - TESFED League Playoff Jun 14 $5 +$1 +12%
Counter-Strike: illwill vs Nuclear TigeRES (BO3) - NODWIN Clutch Serie Jun 14 $5 +$1 +21%
Exact Score: Netherlands 1 - 0 Japan? Jun 14 $1 −$1 -98%
Exact Score: Netherlands 1 - 1 Japan? Jun 14 $1 −$1 -98%
Counter-Strike: Natus Vincere vs Team Falcons (BO3) - IEM Cologne Majo Jun 14 $5 −$4 -81%
Counter-Strike: ex-RUBY vs INOX Division (BO3) - CCT Europe Series #4 Jun 14 $5 +$1 +29%
Games Total: O/U 2.5 Jun 14 $5 +$5 +90%
Counter-Strike: Aurora Gaming vs 9z (BO3) - IEM Cologne Major Stage 3 Jun 14 $5 +$2 +31%
Counter-Strike: 1WIN vs TDK (BO3) - NODWIN Clutch Series Playoffs Jun 14 $5 +$1 +24%
Games Total: O/U 2.5 Jun 14 $5 −$5 -98%
Counter-Strike: SPARTA vs Leo Team (BO3) - CCT Europe Series #4 Group Jun 14 $5 +$1 +29%
Counter-Strike: WRAITH PCIFIC vs Clutchain (BO3) - United21 Playoffs Jun 14 $5 +$1 +20%
Counter-Strike: HOTU vs KOLESIE (BO3) - NODWIN Clutch Series Playoffs Jun 14 $5 +$1 +17%
Games Total: O/U 2.5 Jun 14 $5 +$7 +146%
Counter-Strike: fnatic vs Metizport (BO3) - ROG Journey Playoffs Jun 14 $5 +$1 +26%
Games Total: O/U 2.5 Jun 14 $5 +$6 +114%
Counter-Strike: K27 vs Walczaki (BO3) - NODWIN Clutch Series Playoffs Jun 14 $5 +$1 +26%
Counter-Strike: Nexus vs Noir Verse (BO3) - ROG Journey Playoffs Jun 14 $5 +$1 +16%
Games Total: O/U 2.5 Jun 14 $5 −$5 -98%
Games Total: O/U 2.5 Jun 14 $5 −$5 -99%
Counter-Strike: Detonate vs Wanted Goons (BO3) - NSTLGA League Playoff Jun 13 $5 +$1 +18%
Brazil vs. Morocco: O/U 2.5 Jun 13 $10 −$10 -99%
Will Morocco win on 2026-06-13? Jun 13 $46 −$45 -98%
Counter-Strike: Washed vs MASONIC (BO3) - Dust2.dk Ligaen Playoffs Jun 13 $5 +$1 +23%
Counter-Strike: BetBoom Team vs FURIA (BO3) - IEM Cologne Major Stage Jun 13 $5 +$1 +24%
Counter-Strike: KOLESIE vs Bebop (BO3) - CCT Europe Series #4 Group St Jun 13 $5 −$5 -99%
Counter-Strike: Team Falcons vs Monte (BO3) - IEM Cologne Major Stage Jun 13 $5 +$1 +16%
Games Total: O/U 2.5 Jun 13 $5 −$5 -98%
Games Total: O/U 2.5 Jun 13 $5 −$5 -99%
Latest 50 closed markets. Resolution = Polymarket fact (redeemable/curPrice), not a timer.
Latest trades by this wallet
Marketsidepricesizewhen
Games Total: O/U 2.5 BUY Under 52¢ $5 25m
Kylian Mbappé: 1+ goals BUY Yes 54¢ $10 14h
Games Total: O/U 2.5 BUY Under 56¢ $5 15h
Counter-Strike: K27 vs 100 Thieves (BO3) - NODWIN Clutch Series Playof BUY K27 78¢ $5 17h
Games Total: O/U 2.5 BUY Under 57¢ $5 18h
Games Total: O/U 2.5 BUY Under 54¢ $5 19h
Counter-Strike: Clutchain vs LPH Gaming (BO3) - United21 Group B BUY LPH Gaming 76¢ $5 20h
Counter-Strike: illwill vs ex-RUBY (BO3) - CCT Europe Series #4 Group BUY ex-RUBY 79¢ $5 21h
Counter-Strike: HOTU vs TDK (BO3) - NODWIN Clutch Series Playoffs BUY TDK 82¢ $5 23h
Counter-Strike: MARKandLARRY vs DXA Esports (BO3) - Dfrag Open Series BUY MARKandLARRY 86¢ $5 23h
Games Total: O/U 2.5 BUY Under 59¢ $5 35h
Counter-Strike: SPARTA vs G2 Ares (BO3) - CCT Europe Series #4 Group S BUY SPARTA 80¢ $5 39h
Lamine Yamal: 1+ goals BUY Yes 28¢ $5 40h
Games Total: O/U 2.5 BUY Under 52¢ $5 47h
Counter-Strike: Millennium Esports vs Coalesce (BO3) - United21 Group SELL Millennium Esports 5¢ $0 47h
Counter-Strike: Millennium Esports vs Coalesce (BO3) - United21 Group BUY Millennium Esports 85¢ $5 2d
Games Total: O/U 2.5 BUY Under 51¢ $5 2d
Games Total: O/U 2.5 BUY Under 53¢ $5 2d
Counter-Strike: Marsborne vs Iowa Stormboar (BO3) - NSTLGA League Play BUY Marsborne 78¢ $5 2d
LoL: LYON vs Team Liquid - Game 3 Winner BUY Team Liquid 51¢ $5 2d
Will Netherlands vs. Japan end in a draw? BUY Yes 35¢ $5 2d
Exact Score: Netherlands 1 - 0 Japan? BUY Yes 21¢ $1 2d
Exact Score: Netherlands 1 - 1 Japan? BUY Yes 15¢ $1 2d
Counter-Strike: Natus Vincere vs Team Falcons (BO3) - IEM Cologne Majo SELL Team Falcons 15¢ $1 2d
Counter-Strike: Natus Vincere vs Team Falcons (BO3) - IEM Cologne Majo BUY Team Falcons 77¢ $5 2d
Games Total: O/U 2.5 BUY Under 60¢ $5 2d
Counter-Strike: illwill vs Nuclear TigeRES (BO3) - NODWIN Clutch Serie BUY Nuclear TigeRES 82¢ $5 2d
Counter-Strike: FULLPOWER vs FUT Turkuaz (BO3) - TESFED League Playoff BUY FUT Turkuaz 89¢ $5 2d
Games Total: O/U 2.5 BUY Over 42¢ $5 2d
Counter-Strike: Aurora Gaming vs 9z (BO3) - IEM Cologne Major Stage 3 BUY Aurora Gaming 76¢ $5 2d
From the wallet’s activity history (Polymarket /activity), latest 30.
✓ Calibrated vs Polymarket: our portfolio calc $10.01 · official $10.01 (match) · 1566 history records