Wallet analysis

2026-06-17T05:37:45+00:00

trader profile + honest PnL by actual resolution and NET edge after slippage — worth copying?

0.0
score
84 0x8492…f17c sports 825 markets active 1h ago coverage 151d
TRAPdo not copy sports specialistFresh edge⚠ High turnover
✗ negative after realistic slippage! high turnover
Total PnL −$385 (-1%) realized −$475 · open +$90
Copy trade Watchlist View on Polymarket ↗
Gross ROI / mkt +1% what the leader earns
→−copy tax
Net edge / mkt -16% what you keep after slip
Net edge-16%after slip
Net WR44%break-even
Win rate46%372W / 431L
Drawdown100%max
Avg bet$46per market
Trades / day9.2pace
Fees−$395est.
Kalshi-fit71%portable
Net worth$463now

Equity curve

realized PnL
1W 1M 3M YTD 1Y All
2 days−$4
7 days+$712
14 days+$430
30 days+$604
Cards show realized PnL over calendar windows (by resolution date). The “Total PnL” chart appears for wallets we track daily.

Categories

share · PnL
sports 76% −$152
other 22% −$529
crypto 1% +$15
finance 0% +$24
world 0% +$33
economics 0% +$7
Share of volume and PnL by niche (realized + unrealized). Shows where the trader actually earns — and where they bleed.

The copy-tax — evidence

gross is the leader · net is you

Net edge · by timeframe

gross → net
negative after costs — do not copy
break-even: the trader needs > 10.5% gross ROI/market for the copier to break even
chance a trade nets +44%
net ROI/market (all)-8.5%
timeframemarkets gross ROINET ROI gross WRNET WR net PnL (wtd)
≤7d 172 +10.0% -0.5% 53% 52% -4.5%
≤30d 490 +7.9% -2.4% 47% 46% -7.6%
≤90d 603 +5.9% -4.1% 48% 46% -9.8%
all 803 +1.1% -8.5% 46% 44% -11.3%
<b>gross</b> = as the leader traded. <b>net</b> = what WE’d keep after slippage (we enter later, price moved). Net ROI ≤ 0 → copying loses even if the leader profits.

Slippage survival

net ROI/WR at slip
turnover9.2 tr/day
realistic slip~9%
edge survives to0%
copier slippageNET ROINET WRnet PnL (wtd)
5% ideal ← realistic here -8.5% 44% -11.3%
10% -17.2% 41% -19.8%
15% -25.2% 37% -27.5%
20% -32.6% 30% -34.6%
Realistic slippage grows with turnover and leader size. If net ROI turns negative before the realistic slip — it’s a <b>trap</b>: leader profits, you lose.

Edge quality

honest signals — luck vs skill
Profit concentration
top 3% · top 2 5% broad-based profit
Edge freshness (90d)
90d ROI -0% 90d near zero / fading
Fragile wins
6% wins margin < slip solid win margins
Flat-copyable
equal-wt +1% · $-wt -2% works when copied flat
Big bets
big-bet WR —% no data
Persistence
early -1% → late +3% mixed
Add-ons / DCA
1.2 add-ons/market flat bettor — clean entries
Win / loss size
+$37 vs −$34 · ×1.1 wins ≈ losses
Profit factor
×0.95 loses more than it wins
Copy size
≥ $50 mirror leader trades ≥ this size to copy only main ideas

Supporting detail

151d coverage
Net worth$463
Realized−$475
Unrealized+$90
Win rate (resolved)46%
Wins / losses372 / 431
Est. fees paid−$395
Open positions22
Markets (closed)803 / 825
History coverage151d
Avg bet$46
Trades / day9.2
Drawdown100%
Kalshi-fit71%

Ledger

positions · history · trades
Positions 22 History 803 Trades
Open positions — marked to current price, like Polymarket
Marketoutcome entrynow investedvalue unrealized PnL
Will Ivory Coast finish second in Group E in the 2026 FIFA World Cup Group Stage? Yes 39¢ 71¢ $78 $144 +$65 (+83%)
Will Ivory Coast win Group E in the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Yes 13¢ 21¢ $30 $46 +$16 (+55%)
Marcel Sabitzer: 1+ assists Yes 25¢ 50¢ $20 $40 +$20 (+98%)
Will Austria vs. Jordan end in a draw? Yes 11¢ 26¢ $15 $36 +$21 (+141%)
Will Portugal win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Yes 10¢ 10¢ $35 $36 +$1 (+3%)
Will Argentina win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Yes 9¢ 11¢ $28 $35 +$7 (+26%)
Spread: Austria (-1.5) Austria 46¢ 28¢ $50 $30 −$20 (-40%)
Will Germany win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Yes 6¢ 6¢ $18 $18 +$0 (+1%)
Will Netherlands win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Yes 4¢ 4¢ $12 $14 +$1 (+11%)
Will Lamine Yamal record the most assists at the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Yes 11¢ 12¢ $10 $10 +$0 (+5%)
Will Morocco win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Yes 2¢ 2¢ $6 $10 +$3 (+47%)
Will Norway win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Yes 3¢ 3¢ $9 $9 −$0 (-1%)
Will USA win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Yes 2¢ 2¢ $8 $9 +$1 (+18%)
Will Japan win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Yes 2¢ 2¢ $7 $7 −$1 (-12%)
Will Belgium win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Yes 2¢ 2¢ $8 $6 −$2 (-19%)
Hantavirus pandemic in 2026? Yes 8¢ 4¢ $10 $5 −$5 (-53%)
Will Senegal win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Yes 1¢ 1¢ $3 $3 −$1 (-19%)
Will Ivory Coast win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Yes 0¢ 1¢ $2 $2 +$0 (+10%)
Will Michael Olise be the top goalscorer at the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Yes 4¢ 1¢ $6 $2 −$4 (-72%)
Will Senegal win Group I in the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Yes 12¢ 1¢ $10 $1 −$9 (-90%)
Will Czechia win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Yes 0¢ 0¢ $5 $1 −$5 (-85%)
Set 1 Winner: Hijikata vs Paul Paul 18¢ 0¢ $1 $0 −$1 (-98%)
Top-25 open positions by current value. Prices in cents = market-implied probability (50¢ = 50%). Plus 375 resolved losing bets — already counted in realized PnL, so not shown here.
Closed markets — PnL by actual resolution, newest first
MarketwheninvestedPnLROI
Austria leading at halftime? Jun 17 $101 +$87 +86%
Austria vs. Jordan: Austria 1st Half O/U 0.5 Jun 17 $108 +$60 +56%
Romano Schmid: 1+ goals Jun 17 $20 +$60 +293%
Austria to score first vs. Jordan? Jun 17 $101 +$36 +36%
Algeria leading at halftime? Jun 17 $15 −$15 -98%
Spread: Norway (-1.5) Jun 17 $61 +$41 +67%
Norway leading at halftime? Jun 17 $101 +$63 +62%
Kylian Mbappé: 1+ goals Jun 16 $82 −$81 -99%
Ismaïla Sarr: 1+ goals Jun 16 $23 −$22 -98%
Will Argentina vs. Algeria end in a draw? Jun 16 $26 −$25 -98%
Will Senegal win on 2026-06-16? Jun 16 $15 −$15 -98%
Will France vs. Senegal end in a draw? Jun 16 $34 −$33 -98%
Halle Open: Tomas Etcheverry vs Daniil Medvedev Jun 16 $201 +$43 +21%
Majchrzak vs. Lehecka: Set 1 Games O/U 10.5 Jun 16 $97 −$96 -99%
Etcheverry vs. Medvedev: Set 1 Games O/U 10.5 Jun 16 $101 +$42 +42%
Lamens vs. Badosa: Set 1 Games O/U 10.5 Jun 16 $101 +$25 +24%
Humbert vs. Cilic: Set 1 Games O/U 10.5 Jun 16 $41 +$43 +105%
Norrie vs. Fokina: Set 1 Games O/U 10.5 Jun 16 $101 −$100 -99%
Minaur vs. Diallo: Set 1 Games O/U 8.5 Jun 16 $201 +$40 +20%
Golubic vs. Kenin: Set 1 Games O/U 10.5 Jun 16 $101 +$25 +24%
McNally vs. Ruzic: Set 1 Games O/U 10.5 Jun 16 $101 +$23 +23%
Dimitrov vs. Rodesch: Set 1 Games O/U 10.5 Jun 16 $99 +$47 +48%
Zverev vs. Kopriva: Set 1 Games O/U 10.5 Jun 16 $101 +$26 +26%
Siniakova vs. Masarova: Set 1 Games O/U 10.5 Jun 16 $101 +$28 +27%
Set 1 Winner: Brooksby vs Damm Jun 16 $99 −$98 -99%
Rublev vs. Hurkacz: Set 1 Games O/U 10.5 Jun 16 $44 −$43 -99%
Grass Court Championships: Linda Noskova vs Renata Zarazua Jun 16 $125 +$9 +8%
Halle Open: Karen Khachanov vs Ethan Quinn Jun 16 $121 −$120 -99%
Set 1 Winner: Fonseca vs Hanfmann Jun 16 $4 −$4 -97%
Set 1 Winner: Mensik vs Mannarino Jun 16 $175 +$409 +234%
Set 1 Winner: Noskova vs Zarazua Jun 16 $101 +$25 +24%
Set 1 Winner: Khachanov vs Quinn Jun 16 $51 +$26 +52%
Bellucci vs. Bublik: Set 1 Games O/U 10.5 Jun 16 $41 +$57 +140%
Halle Open: Mattia Bellucci vs Alexander Bublik Jun 16 $101 −$100 -99%
Set Handicap: Bublik (-1.5) vs Bellucci (+1.5) Jun 16 $24 −$24 -98%
Will Belgium win on 2026-06-15? Jun 15 $203 −$200 -98%
Will Belgium vs. Egypt end in a draw? Jun 15 $112 +$50 +44%
Will Egypt win on 2026-06-15? Jun 15 $120 −$79 -66%
Belgium vs. Egypt: Team to Take First Corner Jun 15 $83 +$149 +179%
Set 1 Winner: Perricard vs Moutet Jun 15 $51 +$33 +65%
Spain vs. Cabo Verde: O/U 2.5 Jun 15 $238 −$236 -99%
Spain vs. Cabo Verde: Spain O/U 3.5 Jun 15 $21 −$21 -98%
Gavi Paez: 1+ goals Jun 15 $15 −$15 -98%
Mikel Oyarzabal: 1+ goals Jun 15 $51 −$50 -99%
Fabián Ruiz: 1+ goals Jun 15 $15 −$15 -98%
Spain leading at halftime? Jun 15 $101 −$100 -99%
Spread: Spain (-2.5) Jun 15 $101 −$100 -99%
Halle Open: Nuno Borges vs Felix Auger-Aliassime Jun 15 $128 +$59 +46%
Paul vs. Svajda: Set 1 Games O/U 8.5 Jun 15 $100 +$17 +17%
Set 1 Winner: Bartunkova vs Shnaider Jun 15 $41 −$40 -98%
Latest 50 closed markets. Resolution = Polymarket fact (redeemable/curPrice), not a timer.
Latest trades by this wallet
Marketsidepricesizewhen
Austria leading at halftime? SELL Yes 100¢ $188 44m
Will Austria vs. Jordan end in a draw? BUY Yes 11¢ $15 54m
Austria vs. Jordan: Austria 1st Half O/U 0.5 SELL Over 100¢ $169 58m
Romano Schmid: 1+ goals SELL Yes 100¢ $80 1h
Austria to score first vs. Jordan? SELL Yes 100¢ $137 1h
Austria vs. Jordan: Austria 1st Half O/U 0.5 BUY Over 64¢ $108 1h
Marcel Sabitzer: 1+ assists BUY Yes 25¢ $20 1h
Romano Schmid: 1+ goals BUY Yes 25¢ $20 1h
Austria to score first vs. Jordan? BUY Yes 73¢ $101 1h
Algeria leading at halftime? BUY Yes 15¢ $15 4h
Spread: Norway (-1.5) SELL Norway 100¢ $102 5h
Norway leading at halftime? SELL Yes 100¢ $164 5h
Kylian Mbappé: 1+ goals BUY No 53¢ $82 10h
Ismaïla Sarr: 1+ goals BUY Yes 17¢ $23 10h
Norway leading at halftime? BUY Yes 61¢ $101 10h
Austria leading at halftime? BUY Yes 53¢ $101 10h
Spread: Austria (-1.5) BUY Austria 46¢ $51 10h
Spread: Norway (-1.5) BUY Norway 59¢ $61 10h
Will Argentina vs. Algeria end in a draw? BUY Yes 21¢ $26 10h
Will Senegal win on 2026-06-16? BUY Yes 14¢ $15 10h
Will France vs. Senegal end in a draw? BUY Yes 22¢ $34 11h
Halle Open: Tomas Etcheverry vs Daniil Medvedev SELL Daniil Medvedev 100¢ $244 12h
Majchrzak vs. Lehecka: Set 1 Games O/U 10.5 BUY Under 65¢ $97 12h
Humbert vs. Cilic: Set 1 Games O/U 10.5 SELL Over 100¢ $83 13h
Norrie vs. Fokina: Set 1 Games O/U 10.5 BUY Under 68¢ $101 13h
Humbert vs. Cilic: Set 1 Games O/U 10.5 BUY Over 48¢ $41 13h
Halle Open: Tomas Etcheverry vs Daniil Medvedev BUY Daniil Medvedev 82¢ $201 14h
Etcheverry vs. Medvedev: Set 1 Games O/U 10.5 BUY Under 70¢ $101 14h
Minaur vs. Diallo: Set 1 Games O/U 8.5 SELL Over 100¢ $241 14h
Golubic vs. Kenin: Set 1 Games O/U 10.5 SELL Under 99¢ $125 14h
From the wallet’s activity history (Polymarket /activity), latest 30.
✓ Calibrated vs Polymarket: our portfolio calc $463.41 · official $463.45 (match) · 1443 history records