Wallet analysis

2026-06-24T03:36:19+00:00

trader profile + honest PnL by actual resolution and NET edge after slippage — worth copying?

0.0
score
84 0x8490…17b5 crypto 172 markets active 0h ago coverage 119d
TRAPdo not copy crypto specialist
✗ negative after realistic slippage✗ 90-day edge negative — edge has died
Total PnL −$521 (-4%) realized −$499 · open −$22
Copy trade Watchlist View on Polymarket ↗
Gross ROI / mkt -5% what the leader earns
→−copy tax
Net edge / mkt -14% what you keep after slip
Net edge-14%after slip
Net WR45%break-even
Win rate69%117W / 53L
Drawdown100%max
Avg bet$80per market
Trades / day2.7pace
Kalshi-fit95%portable
Net worth$0now

Equity curve

realized PnL
1W 1M 3M YTD 1Y All
2 days−$103
7 days−$95
14 days−$95
30 days−$95
Cards show realized PnL over calendar windows (by resolution date). The “Total PnL” chart appears for wallets we track daily.

Categories

share · PnL
crypto 87% −$419
weather 5% −$87
other 4% +$4
sports 3% −$4
world 2% −$202
Share of volume and PnL by niche (realized + unrealized). Shows where the trader actually earns — and where they bleed.

The copy-tax — evidence

gross is the leader · net is you

Net edge · by timeframe

gross → net
negative after costs — do not copy
break-even: the trader needs > 10.5% gross ROI/market for the copier to break even
chance a trade nets +45%
net ROI/market (all)-13.6%
timeframemarkets gross ROINET ROI gross WRNET WR net PnL (wtd)
≤7d 51 -3.2% -12.4% 76% 51% -19.2%
≤30d 51 -3.2% -12.4% 76% 51% -19.2%
≤90d 51 -3.2% -12.4% 76% 51% -19.2%
all 170 -4.6% -13.6% 69% 45% -14.0%
<b>gross</b> = as the leader traded. <b>net</b> = what WE’d keep after slippage (we enter later, price moved). Net ROI ≤ 0 → copying loses even if the leader profits.

Slippage survival

net ROI/WR at slip
turnover2.7 tr/day
realistic slip~5%
edge survives to0%
copier slippageNET ROINET WRnet PnL (wtd)
5% ideal ← realistic here -13.6% 45% -14.0%
10% -21.9% 26% -22.3%
15% -29.5% 17% -29.8%
20% -36.4% 11% -36.7%
Realistic slippage grows with turnover and leader size. If net ROI turns negative before the realistic slip — it’s a <b>trap</b>: leader profits, you lose.

Edge quality

honest signals — luck vs skill
Profit concentration
top 17% · top 2 26% broad-based profit
Edge freshness (90d)
90d ROI -11% edge died — 90d negative
Fragile wins
35% wins margin < slip solid win margins
Flat-copyable
equal-wt -5% · $-wt -5% works when copied flat
Big bets
big-bet WR —% no data
Persistence
early -3% → late -6% mixed
Add-ons / DCA
1.6 add-ons/market adds to positions
Win / loss size
+$19 vs −$55 · ×0.35 wins small, loses big
Profit factor
×0.77 loses more than it wins
Copy size
≥ $50 mirror leader trades ≥ this size to copy only main ideas

Supporting detail

119d coverage
Net worth$0
Realized−$499
Unrealized−$22
Win rate (resolved)69%
Wins / losses117 / 53
Open positions2
Markets (closed)170 / 172
History coverage119d
Avg bet$80
Trades / day2.7
Drawdown100%
Kalshi-fit95%

Ledger

positions · history · trades
Positions 2 History 170 Trades
Open positions — marked to current price, like Polymarket
Marketoutcome entrynow investedvalue unrealized PnL
Will the highest temperature in Wellington be 14°C on June 24? Yes 1¢ 0¢ $2 $0 −$2 (-89%)
Will the highest temperature in Wellington be 15°C on June 24? Yes 35¢ 0¢ $20 $0 −$20 (-100%)
Top-25 open positions by current value. Prices in cents = market-implied probability (50¢ = 50%). Plus 22 resolved losing bets — already counted in realized PnL, so not shown here.
Closed markets — PnL by actual resolution, newest first
MarketwheninvestedPnLROI
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 23, 11:10PM-11:15PM ET Jun 24 $1 $0 +26%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 23, 11:05PM-11:10PM ET Jun 24 $11 −$11 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 23, 10:55PM-11:00PM ET Jun 24 $101 +$10 +10%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 23, 10:20PM-10:25PM ET Jun 24 $1 $0 +12%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 23, 10:40PM-10:45PM ET Jun 24 $1 $0 +2%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 23, 9:55PM-10:00PM ET Jun 24 $1 $0 +20%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 23, 10:35PM-10:40PM ET Jun 24 $10 +$3 +31%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 23, 10:25PM-10:30PM ET Jun 24 $20 +$3 +14%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 23, 10:45PM-10:50PM ET Jun 24 $20 −$20 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 23, 10:15PM-10:20PM ET Jun 24 $100 +$7 +7%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 23, 10:05PM-10:10PM ET Jun 24 $21 −$20 -97%
Will the highest temperature in Wellington be 17°C on June 24? Jun 24 $186 −$96 -52%
Will the highest temperature in Wellington be 16°C on June 24? Jun 24 $6 −$1 -22%
Will the highest temperature in Milan be 35°C on June 23? Jun 23 $32 +$4 +12%
Will the highest temperature in Jeddah be 34°C on June 23? Jun 23 $7 +$3 +49%
Will the highest temperature in Jeddah be 36°C on June 23? Jun 23 $13 +$2 +18%
Will the highest temperature in Karachi be 34°C on June 23? Jun 23 $20 +$1 +6%
Will the highest temperature in Lucknow be 40°C on June 23? Jun 23 $2 $0 +6%
Will the highest temperature in Manila be 32°C on June 23? Jun 23 $40 +$1 +1%
Will the highest temperature in Manila be 31°C on June 23? Jun 23 $1 $0 +4%
Will the highest temperature in Moscow be 23°C on June 23? Jun 23 $71 +$8 +12%
Will the highest temperature in Shanghai be 24°C on June 22? Jun 22 $10 +$2 +24%
Will the highest temperature in Manila be 32°C on June 22? Jun 22 $25 −$2 -7%
Will the highest temperature in Tokyo be 28°C on June 22? Jun 22 $10 +$1 +13%
Will the highest temperature in Tel Aviv be 29°C on June 21? Jun 21 $10 +$1 +14%
Will the highest temperature in Istanbul be 26°C on June 21? Jun 21 $10 +$1 +8%
Will the highest temperature in Moscow be 25°C on June 21? Jun 21 $10 +$2 +22%
Will the highest temperature in London be 26°C on June 20? Jun 20 $9 +$1 +16%
Will the highest temperature in Milan be 34°C on June 20? Jun 20 $10 +$2 +17%
Will the highest temperature in Istanbul be 24°C on June 20? Jun 20 $10 +$2 +20%
Will the lowest temperature in Shanghai be 25°C on June 20? Jun 20 $2 $0 -14%
Will the highest temperature in Wellington be 17°C on June 20? Jun 20 $10 +$1 +13%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 20, 5:35AM-5:40AM ET Jun 20 $10 +$1 +6%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 20, 5:25AM-5:30AM ET Jun 20 $10 +$5 +46%
Will the highest temperature in Taipei be 35°C on June 20? Jun 20 $4 +$1 +18%
Will the highest temperature in Seoul be 24°C on June 20? Jun 20 $4 +$1 +18%
Will the highest temperature in Busan be 28°C on June 20? Jun 20 $3 $0 +6%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 20, 2:45AM-2:50AM ET Jun 20 $10 −$10 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 20, 2:25AM-2:30AM ET Jun 20 $10 +$3 +33%
Will the highest temperature in Busan be 27°C on June 20? Jun 20 $10 −$6 -62%
Will the highest temperature in Manila be 36°C on June 20? Jun 20 $5 −$1 -11%
Will the highest temperature in Manila be 33°C on June 20? Jun 20 $2 $0 +5%
Will the highest temperature in Madrid be 36°C on June 19? Jun 19 $7 +$1 +17%
Will the highest temperature in Cape Town be 22°C on June 19? Jun 19 $10 +$2 +24%
Will the highest temperature in Warsaw be 27°C on June 19? Jun 19 $10 +$2 +20%
Will the highest temperature in Tel Aviv be 29°C on June 19? Jun 19 $1 $0 +13%
Will the highest temperature in Istanbul be 24°C on June 19? Jun 19 $1 $0 +12%
Will the highest temperature in Wellington be 14°C on June 19? Jun 19 $1 $0 +6%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 19, 8:10AM-8:15AM ET Jun 19 $1 −$1 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 19, 8:05AM-8:10AM ET Jun 19 $1 −$1 -100%
Latest 50 closed markets. Resolution = Polymarket fact (redeemable/curPrice), not a timer.
Latest trades by this wallet
Marketsidepricesizewhen
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 23, 11:10PM-11:15PM ET BUY Down 78¢ $1 21m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 23, 11:05PM-11:10PM ET BUY Up 20¢ $11 26m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 23, 10:55PM-11:00PM ET BUY Up 90¢ $101 37m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 23, 10:45PM-10:50PM ET BUY Down 61¢ $10 46m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 23, 10:45PM-10:50PM ET BUY Down 70¢ $10 49m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 23, 10:40PM-10:45PM ET BUY Up 98¢ $1 53m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 23, 10:35PM-10:40PM ET BUY Down 75¢ $10 58m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 23, 10:25PM-10:30PM ET BUY Up 87¢ $20 1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 23, 10:20PM-10:25PM ET BUY Down 89¢ $1 1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 23, 10:15PM-10:20PM ET BUY Down 93¢ $100 1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 23, 10:05PM-10:10PM ET BUY Down 56¢ $10 1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 23, 10:05PM-10:10PM ET BUY Down 56¢ $10 1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 23, 9:55PM-10:00PM ET BUY Down 82¢ $1 1h
Will the highest temperature in Wellington be 17°C on June 24? SELL No 42¢ $90 1h
Will the highest temperature in Wellington be 16°C on June 24? SELL No 42¢ $5 2h
Will the highest temperature in Wellington be 16°C on June 24? BUY No 66¢ $1 2h
Will the highest temperature in Wellington be 15°C on June 24? BUY Yes 35¢ $21 2h
Will the highest temperature in Wellington be 17°C on June 24? BUY No 83¢ $186 2h
Will the highest temperature in Wellington be 14°C on June 24? BUY Yes 1¢ $1 2h
Will the highest temperature in Wellington be 14°C on June 24? BUY Yes 2¢ $1 2h
Will the highest temperature in Wellington be 16°C on June 24? BUY No 50¢ $5 2h
Will the highest temperature in Milan be 35°C on June 23? BUY No 89¢ $32 12h
Will the highest temperature in Moscow be 23°C on June 23? SELL Yes 87¢ $79 13h
Will the highest temperature in Moscow be 23°C on June 23? BUY Yes 81¢ $40 14h
Will the highest temperature in Moscow be 23°C on June 23? BUY Yes 85¢ $1 15h
Will the highest temperature in Moscow be 23°C on June 23? BUY Yes 85¢ $20 15h
Will the highest temperature in Moscow be 23°C on June 23? BUY Yes 55¢ $9 15h
Will the highest temperature in Jeddah be 34°C on June 23? BUY Yes 67¢ $5 16h
Will the highest temperature in Jeddah be 34°C on June 23? BUY Yes 67¢ $2 16h
Will the highest temperature in Jeddah be 36°C on June 23? BUY No 85¢ $4 16h
From the wallet’s activity history (Polymarket /activity), latest 30.
✓ Calibrated vs Polymarket: our portfolio calc $0.25 · official $0.25 (match) · 713 history records