Wallet analysis

2026-06-17T14:20:42+00:00

trader profile + honest PnL by actual resolution and NET edge after slippage — worth copying?

4.5
score
84 0x8490…423f crypto 10 markets active 1h ago coverage 12d
RISKYcopy with care crypto specialist⚠ Small sample
✗ too few resolved markets (<12) to judge✗ negative after realistic slippage
Total PnL +$115 (+2%) realized +$115 · open +$0
Copy trade Watchlist View on Polymarket ↗
Gross ROI / mkt +3% what the leader earns
→−copy tax
Net edge / mkt -10% what you keep after slip
Net edge-10%after slip
Net WR11%break-even
Win rate56%5W / 4L
Drawdown1%max
Avg bet$554per market
Trades / day1.0pace
Fees−$3est.
Kalshi-fit62%portable
Net worth$534now

Equity curve

realized PnL
1W 1M 3M YTD 1Y All
2 days−$1
7 days+$112
14 days+$112
30 days+$112
Cards show realized PnL over calendar windows (by resolution date). The “Total PnL” chart appears for wallets we track daily.

Categories

share · PnL
crypto 55% +$2
other 38% −$2
sports 7% +$112
Share of volume and PnL by niche (realized + unrealized). Shows where the trader actually earns — and where they bleed.

The copy-tax — evidence

gross is the leader · net is you

Net edge · by timeframe

gross → net
insufficient sample — too few resolved markets to judge
break-even: the trader needs > 10.5% gross ROI/market for the copier to break even
chance a trade nets +11%
net ROI/market (all)-6.6%
timeframemarkets gross ROINET ROI gross WRNET WR net PnL (wtd)
≤7d 4 +7.2% -3.0% 75% 25% -4.2%
≤30d 9 +3.2% -6.6% 56% 11% -7.3%
≤90d 9 +3.2% -6.6% 56% 11% -7.3%
all 9 +3.2% -6.6% 56% 11% -7.3%
<b>gross</b> = as the leader traded. <b>net</b> = what WE’d keep after slippage (we enter later, price moved). Net ROI ≤ 0 → copying loses even if the leader profits.

Slippage survival

net ROI/WR at slip
turnover1.0 tr/day
realistic slip~7%
edge survives to0%
copier slippageNET ROINET WRnet PnL (wtd)
5% ideal ← realistic here -6.6% 11% -7.3%
10% -15.5% 11% -16.1%
15% -23.7% 0% -24.2%
20% -31.2% 0% -31.7%
Realistic slippage grows with turnover and leader size. If net ROI turns negative before the realistic slip — it’s a <b>trap</b>: leader profits, you lose.

Edge quality

honest signals — luck vs skill
Profit concentration
top 98% · top 2 99% thin sample
Edge freshness (90d)
90d ROI +2% 90d near zero / fading
Fragile wins
80% wins margin < slip thin sample
Flat-copyable
equal-wt +3% · $-wt +2% works when copied flat
Big bets
big-bet WR —% no data
Persistence
early —% → late —% no data
Add-ons / DCA
0.9 add-ons/market flat bettor — clean entries
Win / loss size
+$23 vs −$1 · ×26.68 wins bigger than losses
Profit factor
×66.71 per $1 lost it wins $66.71
Copy size
≥ $300 mirror leader trades ≥ this size to copy only main ideas

Supporting detail

12d coverage
Net worth$534
Realized+$115
Unrealized+$0
Win rate (resolved)56%
Wins / losses5 / 4
Est. fees paid−$3
Open positions1
Markets (closed)9 / 10
History coverage12d
Avg bet$554
Trades / day1.0
Drawdown1%
Kalshi-fit62%

Ledger

positions · history · trades
Positions 1 History 9 Trades
Open positions — marked to current price, like Polymarket
Marketoutcome entrynow investedvalue unrealized PnL
Will South Korea win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? No 100¢ 100¢ $534 $534 −$0 (-0%)
Top-25 open positions by current value. Prices in cents = market-implied probability (50¢ = 50%).
Closed markets — PnL by actual resolution, newest first
MarketwheninvestedPnLROI
Will the price of Bitcoin be above $70,000 on June 16? Jun 16 $500 $0 +0%
Will Egypt win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Jun 16 $539 −$1 -0%
Counter-Strike: Aurora Gaming vs G2 (BO3) - IEM Cologne Major Stage 3 Jun 13 $388 +$112 +29%
Will the price of Bitcoin be above $60,000 on June 11? Jun 11 $470 $0 +0%
XRP Up or Down - June 9, 12:00PM-4:00PM ET Jun 09 $570 $0 +0%
Will Bosnia-Herzegovina win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Jun 09 $511 −$1 -0%
Will the price of Bitcoin be above $56,000 on June 8? Jun 08 $495 $0 +0%
Ethereum Up or Down - June 6, 8:00AM-12:00PM ET Jun 06 $568 $0 +0%
Will the price of Bitcoin be above $68,000 on June 5? Jun 05 $465 $0 +0%
Latest 50 closed markets. Resolution = Polymarket fact (redeemable/curPrice), not a timer.
Latest trades by this wallet
Marketsidepricesizewhen
Will South Korea win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? BUY No 100¢ $534 1h
Will the price of Bitcoin be above $70,000 on June 16? BUY No 100¢ $500 25h
Will Egypt win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? SELL No 100¢ $538 25h
Will Egypt win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? BUY No 100¢ $539 2d
Counter-Strike: Aurora Gaming vs G2 (BO3) - IEM Cologne Major Stage 3 BUY Aurora Gaming 77¢ $388 4d
Will the price of Bitcoin be above $60,000 on June 11? BUY Yes 100¢ $470 6d
Will South Korea win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? SELL No 100¢ $498 6d
Will South Korea win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? BUY No 100¢ $499 7d
Will Bosnia-Herzegovina win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? SELL No 100¢ $510 8d
Will Bosnia-Herzegovina win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? BUY No 100¢ $511 8d
Will the price of Bitcoin be above $56,000 on June 8? BUY Yes 100¢ $495 9d
Will the price of Bitcoin be above $68,000 on June 5? BUY No 100¢ $465 12d
From the wallet’s activity history (Polymarket /activity), latest 30.
✓ Calibrated vs Polymarket: our portfolio calc $533.73 · official $533.73 (match) · 25 history records