Wallet analysis

2026-06-26T17:44:39+00:00

trader profile + honest PnL by actual resolution and NET edge after slippage — worth copying?

1.0
score
84 0x8490…3243 sports 469 markets active 2h ago coverage 223d
TRAPdo not copy sports specialistFresh edge
✗ negative after realistic slippage
Total PnL +$12 (+0%) realized +$12 · open +$0
Gross ROI / mkt +1% what the leader earns
−copy tax
Net edge / mkt -12% what you keep after slip
Net edge-12%after slip
Net WR60%break-even
Win rate61%286W / 182L
Drawdown100%max
Avg bet$17per market
Trades / day3.3pace
Fees−$4est.
Kalshi-fit86%portable
Net worth$38now

Equity curve

realized PnL
1W 1M 3M YTD 1Y All
2 days+$54
7 days+$54
14 days+$54
30 days+$54
Cards show realized PnL over calendar windows (by resolution date). The “Total PnL” chart appears for wallets we track daily.

Categories

share · PnL
sports 85% +$41
other 9% −$67
crypto 3% −$41
world 2% +$2
finance 1% $0
tech 0% −$2
politics 0% −$9
Share of volume and PnL by niche (realized + unrealized). Shows where the trader actually earns — and where they bleed.

The copy-tax — evidence

gross is the leader · net is you

Net edge · by timeframe

gross → net
negative after costs — do not copy
break-even: the trader needs > 10.5% gross ROI/market for the copier to break even
chance a trade nets +60%
net ROI/market (all)-8.9%
timeframemarkets gross ROINET ROI gross WRNET WR net PnL (wtd)
≤7d 6 +31.6% +19.1% 83% 83% +16.5%
≤30d 6 +31.6% +19.1% 83% 83% +16.5%
≤90d 16 +8.3% -2.0% 62% 62% -7.2%
all 468 +0.7% -8.9% 61% 60% -10.4%
<b>gross</b> = as the leader traded. <b>net</b> = what WE’d keep after slippage (we enter later, price moved). Net ROI ≤ 0 → copying loses even if the leader profits.

Slippage survival

net ROI/WR at slip
turnover3.3 tr/day
realistic slip~7%
edge survives to0%
copier slippageNET ROINET WRnet PnL (wtd)
5% ideal ← realistic here -8.9% 60% -10.4%
10% -17.6% 57% -19.0%
15% -25.6% 45% -26.8%
20% -32.9% 32% -34.0%
Realistic slippage grows with turnover and leader size. If net ROI turns negative before the realistic slip — it’s a <b>trap</b>: leader profits, you lose.

Edge quality

honest signals — luck vs skill
Profit concentration
top 2% · top 2 4% broad-based profit
Edge freshness (90d)
90d ROI +3% 90d near zero / fading
Fragile wins
1% wins margin < slip solid win margins
Flat-copyable
equal-wt +1% · $-wt -1% works when copied flat
Big bets
big-bet WR —% no data
Persistence
early -0% → late +1% mixed
Add-ons / DCA
1.1 add-ons/market flat bettor — clean entries
Win / loss size
+$9 vs −$14 · ×0.61 wins small, loses big
Profit factor
×0.97 loses more than it wins
Copy size
≥ $50 mirror leader trades ≥ this size to copy only main ideas

Supporting detail

223d coverage
Net worth$38
Realized+$12
Unrealized+$0
Win rate (resolved)61%
Wins / losses286 / 182
Est. fees paid−$4
Open positions1
Markets (closed)468 / 469
History coverage223d
Avg bet$17
Trades / day3.3
Drawdown100%
Kalshi-fit86%

Ledger

positions · history · trades
Positions 1 History 468 Trades
Open positions — marked to current price, like Polymarket
Marketoutcome entrynow investedvalue unrealized PnL
Norway vs. France: O/U 2.5 Over 65¢ 66¢ $38 $38 +$0 (+1%)
Top-25 open positions by current value. Prices in cents = market-implied probability (50¢ = 50%). Plus 154 resolved losing bets — already counted in realized PnL, so not shown here.
Closed markets — PnL by actual resolution, newest first
MarketwheninvestedPnLROI
Türkiye vs. United States: O/U 4.5 Jun 26 $10 +$7 +73%
Ecuador vs. Germany: O/U 1.5 AND Will Côte d'Ivoire win on 2026-06-25? Jun 26 $55 +$26 +48%
Will Japan win on 2026-06-25? Jun 25 $32 −$32 -98%
Will South Africa vs. Korea Republic end in a draw? Jun 25 $29 +$10 +36%
Scotland vs. Brazil: O/U 1.5 AND Will Morocco win on 2026-06-24? Jun 25 $29 +$18 +60%
Bosnia and Herzegovina vs. Qatar: O/U 2.5 Jun 24 $34 +$25 +73%
FC Barcelona vs. Club Atlético de Madrid: O/U 2.5 Apr 08 $74 −$74 -99%
Mavericks vs. Clippers: O/U 235.5 Apr 08 $15 −$15 -99%
Hornets vs. Celtics: O/U 219.5 Apr 07 $16 −$16 -99%
SHL: Skellefteaa vs. Luleaa Apr 07 $13 +$5 +41%
Will Real Madrid CF win on 2026-04-07? Apr 07 $20 +$11 +57%
Real Madrid CF vs. FC Bayern München: O/U 2.5 Apr 07 $41 +$15 +36%
Pistons vs. Magic: O/U 221.5 Apr 07 $24 +$19 +79%
Will Crude Oil (CL) hit (HIGH) $130 by end of June? Apr 06 $26 −$5 -20%
Will Bitcoin dip to $65,000 in April? Apr 06 $50 −$15 -30%
76ers vs. Hornets: O/U 230.5 Mar 29 $41 +$33 +80%
Pistons vs. Timberwolves: O/U 222.5 Mar 28 $20 −$20 -100%
Spurs vs. Bucks: O/U 225.5 Mar 28 $20 −$20 -100%
Hawks vs. Celtics: O/U 223.5 Mar 27 $10 −$10 -100%
Hawks vs. Celtics: O/U 222.5 Mar 27 $18 −$18 -100%
Pelicans vs. Pistons: O/U 224.5 Mar 27 $10 +$8 +81%
Knicks vs. Hornets: O/U 222.5 Mar 26 $18 −$18 -100%
Ukraine vs. Sweden: O/U 1.5 Mar 26 $27 +$12 +43%
Türkiye vs. Romania: O/U 2.5 Mar 26 $25 −$10 -40%
Will Sweden win on 2026-03-26? Mar 26 $24 −$24 -100%
Hawks vs. Pistons: O/U 226.5 Mar 26 $9 +$7 +75%
Thunder vs. Celtics: O/U 217.5 Mar 26 $10 +$9 +85%
Real Madrid CF Femenino vs. FC Barcelona: O/U 4.5 Mar 25 $12 +$7 +61%
Magic vs. Cavaliers: O/U 228.5 Mar 25 $12 +$10 +82%
Warriors vs. Mavericks: O/U 229.5 Mar 24 $35 +$13 +37%
Thunder vs. 76ers: O/U 220.5 Mar 24 $15 +$8 +57%
Lakers vs. Pistons: O/U 225.5 Mar 23 $14 −$14 -100%
Will Crude Oil (CL) hit (HIGH) $100 by end of March? Mar 23 $66 +$5 +7%
Raptors vs. Suns: O/U 218.5 Mar 23 $14 −$14 -100%
Timberwolves vs. Celtics: O/U 219.5 Mar 23 $15 −$15 -100%
Trail Blazers vs. Nuggets: 1H O/U 122.5 Mar 22 $11 +$9 +85%
Real Madrid CF vs. Club Atlético de Madrid: Both Teams to Score Mar 22 $11 +$6 +58%
Real Madrid CF vs. Club Atlético de Madrid: O/U 2.5 Mar 22 $20 +$11 +56%
FC Augsburg vs. VfB Stuttgart: O/U 2.5 Mar 22 $7 +$4 +59%
Tottenham Hotspur FC vs. Nottingham Forest FC: O/U 1.5 Mar 22 $20 +$7 +37%
Will Newcastle United FC win on 2026-03-22? Mar 22 $10 +$14 +138%
FC Barcelona vs. Rayo Vallecano de Madrid: O/U 2.5 Mar 22 $16 −$16 -100%
Spread: Thunder (-20.5) Mar 21 $25 +$21 +85%
Thunder vs. Wizards: O/U 228.5 Mar 21 $76 +$59 +78%
OGC Nice vs. Paris Saint-Germain FC: O/U 2.5 Mar 21 $17 +$8 +49%
Everton FC vs. Chelsea FC: O/U 1.5 Mar 21 $29 +$9 +30%
FC Bayern München vs. 1. FC Union Berlin: O/U 3.5 Mar 21 $15 +$8 +56%
RB Leipzig vs. TSG 1899 Hoffenheim: O/U 2.5 Mar 21 $15 +$6 +41%
Suns vs. Spurs: O/U 225.5 Mar 19 $10 −$10 -100%
Pistons vs. Wizards: O/U 229.5 Mar 19 $9 −$9 -100%
Latest 50 closed markets. Resolution = Polymarket fact (redeemable/curPrice), not a timer.
Latest trades by this wallet
Marketsidepricesizewhen
Norway vs. France: O/U 2.5 BUY Over 65¢ $38 1h
Türkiye vs. United States: O/U 4.5 BUY Over 57¢ $10 14h
Will Japan win on 2026-06-25? BUY Yes 49¢ $32 23h
Ecuador vs. Germany: O/U 1.5 AND Will Côte d'Ivoire win on 2026-06-25? BUY 67¢ $27 23h
Ecuador vs. Germany: O/U 1.5 AND Will Côte d'Ivoire win on 2026-06-25? BUY 67¢ $27 23h
Will South Africa vs. Korea Republic end in a draw? BUY No 73¢ $29 40h
Scotland vs. Brazil: O/U 1.5 AND Will Morocco win on 2026-06-24? BUY 62¢ $29 44h
Bosnia and Herzegovina vs. Qatar: O/U 2.5 BUY Over 57¢ $34 46h
FC Barcelona vs. Club Atlético de Madrid: O/U 2.5 BUY Over 72¢ $74 79d
Mavericks vs. Clippers: O/U 235.5 BUY Over 53¢ $15 79d
Hornets vs. Celtics: O/U 219.5 BUY Over 54¢ $16 79d
SHL: Skellefteaa vs. Luleaa SELL Skellefteaa 100¢ $18 79d
Will Real Madrid CF win on 2026-04-07? SELL No 100¢ $31 79d
Real Madrid CF vs. FC Bayern München: O/U 2.5 SELL Over 100¢ $55 79d
Real Madrid CF vs. FC Bayern München: O/U 2.5 BUY Over 73¢ $41 79d
Will Real Madrid CF win on 2026-04-07? BUY No 63¢ $20 79d
SHL: Skellefteaa vs. Luleaa BUY Skellefteaa 70¢ $13 80d
Pistons vs. Magic: O/U 221.5 BUY Over 55¢ $24 80d
Will Crude Oil (CL) hit (HIGH) $130 by end of June? SELL Yes 47¢ $21 80d
Will Bitcoin dip to $65,000 in April? SELL Yes 56¢ $35 80d
Will Bitcoin dip to $65,000 in April? BUY Yes 79¢ $50 82d
Will Crude Oil (CL) hit (HIGH) $130 by end of June? BUY Yes 59¢ $26 82d
76ers vs. Hornets: O/U 230.5 SELL Over 100¢ $73 89d
76ers vs. Hornets: O/U 230.5 BUY Over 56¢ $41 89d
Pistons vs. Timberwolves: O/U 222.5 BUY Over 48¢ $20 90d
Spurs vs. Bucks: O/U 225.5 BUY Over 54¢ $20 90d
Hawks vs. Celtics: O/U 223.5 BUY Over 55¢ $10 90d
Hawks vs. Celtics: O/U 222.5 BUY Over 57¢ $18 90d
Pelicans vs. Pistons: O/U 224.5 BUY Over 55¢ $10 91d
Knicks vs. Hornets: O/U 222.5 BUY Over 55¢ $18 91d
From the wallet’s activity history (Polymarket /activity), latest 30.
Calibrated vs Polymarket: our portfolio calc $38.29 · official $38.29 (match) · 840 history records