Wallet analysis

2026-06-21T09:23:33+00:00

trader profile + honest PnL by actual resolution and NET edge after slippage — worth copying?

0.0
score
84 0x848f…612f sports 1207 markets active 1h ago coverage 162d ⚠
TRAPdo not copy sports specialistFresh edge⚠ High turnover⚠ Covers last 161d only
✗ negative after realistic slippage! high turnover
Total PnL −$1,601 (-3%) realized −$1,528 · open −$73
Copy trade Watchlist View on Polymarket ↗
Gross ROI / mkt -1% what the leader earns
→−copy tax
Net edge / mkt -18% what you keep after slip
Net edge-18%after slip
Net WR46%break-even
Win rate53%587W / 517L
Whale WR37%big bets
Drawdown100%max
Avg bet$45per market
Trades / day15.9pace
Fees−$138est.
Kalshi-fit76%portable
Net worth$2,179now

Equity curve

realized PnL
1W 1M 3M YTD 1Y All
2 days+$100
7 days+$285
14 days+$311
30 days+$357
Cards show realized PnL over calendar windows (by resolution date). The “Total PnL” chart appears for wallets we track daily.

Categories

share · PnL
politics 29% −$1
sports 26% +$461
world 23% −$154
other 17% −$1,101
finance 2% +$19
crypto 2% +$89
tech 0% −$42
culture 0% +$9
economics 0% −$2
Share of volume and PnL by niche (realized + unrealized). Shows where the trader actually earns — and where they bleed.

The copy-tax — evidence

gross is the leader · net is you

Net edge · by timeframe

gross → net
negative after costs — do not copy
break-even: the trader needs > 10.5% gross ROI/market for the copier to break even
chance a trade nets +46%
net ROI/market (all)-10.8%
timeframemarkets gross ROINET ROI gross WRNET WR net PnL (wtd)
≤7d 168 +1.4% -8.2% 54% 49% -2.0%
≤30d 433 +1.6% -8.1% 55% 51% -5.9%
≤90d 937 +0.2% -9.4% 53% 46% -10.4%
all 1104 -1.4% -10.8% 53% 46% -10.7%
<b>gross</b> = as the leader traded. <b>net</b> = what WE’d keep after slippage (we enter later, price moved). Net ROI ≤ 0 → copying loses even if the leader profits.

Slippage survival

net ROI/WR at slip
turnover15.9 tr/day
realistic slip~9%
edge survives to0%
copier slippageNET ROINET WRnet PnL (wtd)
5% ideal ← realistic here -10.8% 46% -10.7%
10% -19.3% 43% -19.2%
15% -27.1% 38% -27.0%
20% -34.3% 28% -34.2%
Realistic slippage grows with turnover and leader size. If net ROI turns negative before the realistic slip — it’s a <b>trap</b>: leader profits, you lose.

Edge quality

honest signals — luck vs skill
Profit concentration
top 2% · top 2 4% broad-based profit
Edge freshness (90d)
90d ROI -1% 90d near zero / fading
Fragile wins
12% wins margin < slip solid win margins
Flat-copyable
equal-wt -1% · $-wt -1% works when copied flat
Big bets
big-bet WR 37% (≥$500) big bets weaker
Persistence
early -5% → late +3% mixed
Add-ons / DCA
1.4 add-ons/market flat bettor — clean entries
Win / loss size
+$8 vs −$10 · ×0.76 wins small, loses big
Profit factor
×0.87 loses more than it wins
Copy size
≥ $50 mirror leader trades ≥ this size to copy only main ideas

Supporting detail

162d coverage
Net worth$2,179
Realized−$1,528
Unrealized−$73
Win rate (resolved)53%
Wins / losses587 / 517
Whale WR (big bets)37%
Est. fees paid−$138
Open positions99
Markets (closed)1104 / 1207
History coverage162d ⚠
Avg bet$45
Trades / day15.9
Drawdown100%
Kalshi-fit76%

Ledger

positions · history · trades
Positions 99 History 1104 Trades
Open positions — marked to current price, like Polymarket
Marketoutcome entrynow investedvalue unrealized PnL
Will Morocco win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Yes 2¢ 2¢ $178 $189 +$11 (+6%)
Will Argentina win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Yes 10¢ 12¢ $111 $134 +$23 (+21%)
Will Morocco reach the Quarterfinals at the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Yes 30¢ 30¢ $130 $129 −$1 (-1%)
Tread FDV above $40M one day after launch Yes 59¢ 58¢ $118 $117 −$1 (-1%)
Will Spain reach the Semifinals at the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Yes 46¢ 41¢ $120 $108 −$12 (-10%)
Will USA reach the Round of 16 at the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Yes 71¢ 72¢ $100 $101 +$1 (+1%)
Will Portugal win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Yes 8¢ 7¢ $115 $98 −$17 (-15%)
Will Morocco reach the Round of 16 at the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Yes 51¢ 50¢ $100 $97 −$3 (-3%)
Will Morocco reach the Semifinals at the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Yes 15¢ 14¢ $100 $92 −$8 (-8%)
Will Portugal be eliminated in the Final of the World Cup? Yes 10¢ 10¢ $98 $90 −$8 (-8%)
Will England be eliminated in the Semifinals of the World Cup? Yes 18¢ 15¢ $90 $76 −$14 (-16%)
Will Argentina reach the Semifinals at the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Yes 33¢ 40¢ $50 $61 +$11 (+23%)
Will France win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Yes 16¢ 20¢ $50 $60 +$10 (+21%)
Will France reach the Semifinals at the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Yes 42¢ 46¢ $42 $46 +$4 (+11%)
Will Spain win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Yes 15¢ 14¢ $50 $44 −$6 (-12%)
Will USA be eliminated in the Quarterfinals of the World Cup? Yes 24¢ 24¢ $43 $43 +$0 (+1%)
Will Netherlands be eliminated in the Quarterfinals of the World Cup? Yes 21¢ 22¢ $40 $43 +$3 (+6%)
Will Base launch a token by December 31, 2026? Yes 44¢ 34¢ $50 $39 −$11 (-23%)
Will Base launch a token by June 30, 2027? Yes 52¢ 50¢ $30 $29 −$1 (-4%)
Will Portugal reach the Semifinals at the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Yes 31¢ 26¢ $31 $26 −$5 (-16%)
Will Brazil reach the Semifinals at the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Yes 31¢ 22¢ $35 $24 −$11 (-31%)
Spread: Morocco (-1.5) Morocco 53¢ 60¢ $20 $23 +$3 (+14%)
Will Argentina win on 2026-06-22? Yes 62¢ 64¢ $20 $20 +$0 (+2%)
Will the Atlanta Braves win the 2026 World Series? Yes 11¢ 9¢ $20 $17 −$3 (-14%)
Will USA win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Yes 1¢ 4¢ $6 $16 +$10 (+167%)
Top-25 open positions by current value. Prices in cents = market-implied probability (50¢ = 50%). Plus 1 resolved losing bets — already counted in realized PnL, so not shown here.
Closed markets — PnL by actual resolution, newest first
MarketwheninvestedPnLROI
Will Ventuals launch a token by June 30 2026? Jun 21 $400 −$23 -6%
Will a player representing Brazil be the top goalscorer at the 2026 FI Jun 21 $5 −$4 -72%
Will Robert F. Kennedy Jr. win the 2028 Republican presidential nomina Jun 21 $2 $0 -15%
Will Croatia win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Jun 21 $2 −$1 -57%
Will Egypt win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Jun 21 $1 −$1 -62%
Will Sweden win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Jun 21 $1 −$1 -73%
Will Multipli.fi launch a token by December 31, 2026? Jun 21 $21 −$4 -20%
Will Nansen launch a token by December 31, 2027? Jun 21 $21 −$6 -31%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 21, 2:35AM-2:40AM ET Jun 21 $16 $0 -2%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 21, 2:30AM-2:35AM ET Jun 21 $5 −$3 -65%
Will Stephen A. Smith win the 2028 Democratic presidential nomination? Jun 21 $1 $0 -20%
Will Mark Cuban win the 2028 Democratic presidential nomination? Jun 21 $1 $0 -21%
Will Michelle Obama win the 2028 Democratic presidential nomination? Jun 21 $1 $0 -4%
Will Wes Moore win the 2028 Democratic presidential nomination? Jun 21 $1 $0 -11%
Will Rahm Emanuel win the 2028 Democratic presidential nomination? Jun 21 $1 $0 +28%
Will Rand Paul win the 2028 Republican presidential nomination? Jun 21 $1 $0 -28%
GRVT FDV above $200M one day after launch? Jun 21 $67 −$39 -58%
Baltimore Orioles vs. Los Angeles Dodgers Jun 21 $5 −$5 -100%
Pittsburgh Pirates vs. Colorado Rockies Jun 21 $5 −$5 -100%
Los Angeles Angels vs. Athletics Jun 21 $10 −$10 -100%
Cleveland Guardians vs. Houston Astros Jun 21 $10 −$10 -100%
Minnesota Twins vs. Arizona Diamondbacks Jun 21 $10 −$10 -100%
Boston Red Sox vs. Seattle Mariners Jun 21 $10 −$10 -100%
Tunisia vs. Japan: Japan O/U 1.5 Jun 21 $101 +$71 +70%
New York Mets vs. Philadelphia Phillies Jun 21 $5 +$3 +57%
San Diego Padres vs. Texas Rangers Jun 21 $10 −$10 -100%
Will UD Almería win on 2026-06-20? Jun 21 $25 −$25 -100%
San Francisco Giants vs. Miami Marlins Jun 20 $10 +$7 +73%
Spread: Washington Nationals (-1.5) Jun 20 $5 +$3 +50%
San Diego Padres vs. Texas Rangers: O/U 8.5 Jun 20 $10 +$13 +129%
Toronto Blue Jays vs. Chicago Cubs Jun 20 $5 −$5 -100%
Milwaukee Brewers vs. Atlanta Braves: O/U 8.5 Jun 20 $10 +$6 +57%
Milwaukee Brewers vs. Atlanta Braves Jun 20 $5 +$4 +83%
Will Germany win on 2026-06-20? Jun 20 $10 +$5 +52%
Will Germany win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Jun 20 $20 +$5 +25%
Cincinnati Reds vs. New York Yankees Jun 20 $10 −$10 -100%
Chicago White Sox vs. Detroit Tigers Jun 20 $10 +$7 +73%
Will Netherlands win on 2026-06-20? Jun 20 $20 +$14 +70%
Will Portugal reach the Quarterfinals at the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Jun 20 $41 −$4 -10%
Counter-Strike: Aurora Gaming vs FURIA (BO3) - IEM Cologne Major Playo Jun 20 $5 +$2 +33%
Will England reach the Quarterfinals at the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Jun 20 $61 +$4 +7%
Baltimore Orioles vs. Los Angeles Dodgers Jun 20 $10 +$5 +48%
Los Angeles Angels vs. Athletics Jun 20 $10 +$7 +65%
Türkiye vs. Paraguay: O/U 2.5 Jun 20 $10 +$8 +79%
Brazil vs. Haiti: Brazil O/U 3.5 Jun 20 $2 −$2 -100%
Cincinnati Reds vs. New York Yankees: O/U 7.5 Jun 20 $5 −$5 -100%
Brazil vs. Haiti: O/U 3.5 Jun 20 $5 −$5 -100%
Milwaukee Brewers vs. Atlanta Braves Jun 20 $10 −$10 -100%
Spread: Morocco (-1.5) Jun 20 $10 −$10 -100%
Minnesota Twins vs. Arizona Diamondbacks Jun 20 $20 +$12 +60%
Latest 50 closed markets. Resolution = Polymarket fact (redeemable/curPrice), not a timer.
Latest trades by this wallet
Marketsidepricesizewhen
Will USA be eliminated in the Quarterfinals of the World Cup? BUY Yes 23¢ $9 35m
ITF Lourinha: Tiago Torres vs Thijs Boogaard BUY Thijs Boogaard 55¢ $5 2h
Bad Homburg Open: Liudmila Samsonova vs Katerina Siniakova BUY Katerina Siniakova 61¢ $5 2h
UFC Fight Night: Abus Magomedov vs. Michal Oleksiejczuk (Middleweight, BUY Abus Magomedov 56¢ $5 2h
UFC Fight Night: Javier Reyes vs. Kaan Ofli (Featherweight, Prelims) BUY Javier Reyes 59¢ $5 2h
Strait of Hormuz traffic returns to normal by end of June? BUY Yes 8¢ $5 2h
Counter-Strike: QUAZAR vs Fire Flux Esports (BO3) - ESEA European Fina BUY QUAZAR 58¢ $5 2h
Valorant: Paper Rex vs Leviatán Esports (BO5) - VCT Masters London Pla BUY Paper Rex 67¢ $10 2h
Will Ventuals launch a token by June 30 2026? SELL No 94¢ $377 2h
Will Ventuals launch a token by June 30 2026? BUY No 99¢ $400 2h
Will a player representing Brazil be the top goalscorer at the 2026 FI SELL Yes 3¢ $1 2h
Will Robert F. Kennedy Jr. win the 2028 Republican presidential nomina SELL Yes 1¢ $1 2h
Will Croatia win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? SELL Yes 0¢ $1 2h
Will Egypt win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? SELL Yes 0¢ $0 2h
Will Sweden win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? SELL Yes 0¢ $0 2h
Will Multipli.fi launch a token by December 31, 2026? SELL No 51¢ $16 2h
Will Abstract launch a token by December 31, 2026 SELL Yes 17¢ $1 2h
Will Nansen launch a token by December 31, 2027? SELL Yes 43¢ $14 2h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 21, 2:35AM-2:40AM ET SELL Down 19¢ $3 2h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 21, 2:35AM-2:40AM ET SELL Up 77¢ $7 2h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 21, 2:35AM-2:40AM ET BUY Down 27¢ $5 2h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 21, 2:35AM-2:40AM ET BUY Up 52¢ $5 2h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 21, 2:35AM-2:40AM ET SELL Up 48¢ $5 2h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 21, 2:35AM-2:40AM ET BUY Up 49¢ $5 2h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 21, 2:30AM-2:35AM ET SELL Up 6¢ $2 2h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 21, 2:30AM-2:35AM ET BUY Up 15¢ $5 2h
Will Stephen A. Smith win the 2028 Democratic presidential nomination? SELL Yes 1¢ $1 2h
Will Mark Cuban win the 2028 Democratic presidential nomination? SELL Yes 1¢ $1 2h
Will Michelle Obama win the 2028 Democratic presidential nomination? SELL Yes 1¢ $1 2h
Will Wes Moore win the 2028 Democratic presidential nomination? SELL Yes 1¢ $1 2h
From the wallet’s activity history (Polymarket /activity), latest 30.
✓ Calibrated vs Polymarket: our portfolio calc $2,178.52 · official $2,188.53 (match) · 3500 history records