Wallet analysis

2026-06-20T08:23:39+00:00

trader profile + honest PnL by actual resolution and NET edge after slippage — worth copying?

0.0
score
84 0x848e…13bf crypto 66 markets active 2d ago coverage 57d
TRAPdo not copy crypto specialist
✗ negative after realistic slippage✗ 90-day edge negative — edge has died
Total PnL −$192 (-9%) realized −$192 · open +$0
Copy trade Watchlist View on Polymarket ↗
Gross ROI / mkt -18% what the leader earns
→−copy tax
Net edge / mkt -26% what you keep after slip
Net edge-26%after slip
Net WR45%break-even
Win rate47%31W / 35L
Drawdown100%max
Avg bet$32per market
Trades / day2.8pace
Kalshi-fit100%portable
Net worth$0now

Equity curve

realized PnL
1W 1M 3M YTD 1Y All
2 days$0
7 days−$282
14 days−$239
30 days−$239
Cards show realized PnL over calendar windows (by resolution date). The “Total PnL” chart appears for wallets we track daily.

Categories

share · PnL
crypto 100% −$342
Share of volume and PnL by niche (realized + unrealized). Shows where the trader actually earns — and where they bleed.

The copy-tax — evidence

gross is the leader · net is you

Net edge · by timeframe

gross → net
negative after costs — do not copy
break-even: the trader needs > 10.5% gross ROI/market for the copier to break even
chance a trade nets +45%
net ROI/market (all)-26.0%
timeframemarkets gross ROINET ROI gross WRNET WR net PnL (wtd)
≤7d 11 -66.4% -69.6% 18% 18% -61.2%
≤30d 43 -18.2% -26.0% 42% 40% -24.5%
≤90d 66 -18.3% -26.0% 47% 45% -26.6%
all 66 -18.3% -26.0% 47% 45% -26.6%
<b>gross</b> = as the leader traded. <b>net</b> = what WE’d keep after slippage (we enter later, price moved). Net ROI ≤ 0 → copying loses even if the leader profits.

Slippage survival

net ROI/WR at slip
turnover2.8 tr/day
realistic slip~5%
edge survives to0%
copier slippageNET ROINET WRnet PnL (wtd)
5% ideal ← realistic here -26.0% 45% -26.6%
10% -33.1% 33% -33.6%
15% -39.6% 29% -40.0%
20% -45.5% 18% -45.9%
Realistic slippage grows with turnover and leader size. If net ROI turns negative before the realistic slip — it’s a <b>trap</b>: leader profits, you lose.

Edge quality

honest signals — luck vs skill
Profit concentration
top 17% · top 2 30% broad-based profit
Edge freshness (90d)
90d ROI -19% edge died — 90d negative
Fragile wins
3% wins margin < slip solid win margins
Flat-copyable
equal-wt -18% · $-wt -19% works when copied flat
Big bets
big-bet WR —% no data
Persistence
early -7% → late -29% mixed
Add-ons / DCA
1.6 add-ons/market adds to positions
Win / loss size
+$15 vs −$23 · ×0.66 wins small, loses big
Profit factor
×0.58 loses more than it wins
Copy size
≥ $50 mirror leader trades ≥ this size to copy only main ideas

Supporting detail

57d coverage
Net worth$0
Realized−$192
Unrealized+$0
Win rate (resolved)47%
Wins / losses31 / 35
Open positions0
Markets (closed)66 / 66
History coverage57d
Avg bet$32
Trades / day2.8
Drawdown100%
Kalshi-fit100%

Ledger

positions · history · trades
Positions 0 History 66 Trades
no open positions (22 resolved losses — in realized PnL)
Closed markets — PnL by actual resolution, newest first
MarketwheninvestedPnLROI
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 17, 10:55PM-11:00PM ET Jun 18 $79 −$26 -33%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 17, 10:50PM-10:55PM ET Jun 18 $26 −$22 -85%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 13, 8:15AM-8:20AM ET Jun 13 $52 −$25 -48%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 13, 8:05AM-8:10AM ET Jun 13 $26 −$23 -88%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 13, 7:50AM-7:55AM ET Jun 13 $77 +$39 +51%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 13, 7:45AM-7:50AM ET Jun 13 $26 −$25 -96%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 13, 7:40AM-7:45AM ET Jun 13 $26 −$26 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 13, 7:35AM-7:40AM ET Jun 13 $26 −$25 -95%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 13, 7:30AM-7:35AM ET Jun 13 $26 −$25 -95%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 13, 7:25AM-7:30AM ET Jun 13 $133 −$133 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 13, 7:20AM-7:25AM ET Jun 13 $25 +$9 +36%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 13, 12:10AM-12:15AM ET Jun 13 $26 −$25 -96%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 13, 12:05AM-12:10AM ET Jun 13 $26 −$25 -96%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 13, 12:00AM-12:05AM ET Jun 13 $26 +$30 +113%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 12, 11:55PM-12:00AM ET Jun 13 $26 +$20 +78%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 12, 11:50PM-11:55PM ET Jun 13 $52 −$25 -48%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 12, 10:30PM-10:35PM ET Jun 13 $26 +$81 +306%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 12, 10:25PM-10:30PM ET Jun 13 $52 +$11 +22%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 12, 10:20PM-10:25PM ET Jun 13 $26 −$25 -96%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 12, 10:15PM-10:20PM ET Jun 13 $105 −$20 -20%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 12, 10:05PM-10:10PM ET Jun 13 $26 +$3 +13%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 12, 10:00PM-10:05PM ET Jun 13 $79 +$10 +12%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 12, 9:55PM-10:00PM ET Jun 13 $53 −$26 -49%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 12, 9:50PM-9:55PM ET Jun 13 $51 −$22 -43%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 12, 9:45PM-9:50PM ET Jun 13 $26 −$23 -86%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 12, 9:15PM-9:20PM ET Jun 13 $55 −$18 -32%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 12, 9:05PM-9:10PM ET Jun 13 $26 −$26 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 12, 9:10PM-9:15PM ET Jun 13 $83 +$23 +28%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 12, 9:00PM-9:05PM ET Jun 13 $32 +$7 +22%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 12, 8:55PM-9:00PM ET Jun 13 $57 +$18 +32%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 12, 8:50PM-8:55PM ET Jun 13 $37 −$5 -15%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 12, 8:45PM-8:50PM ET Jun 13 $73 +$9 +12%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 12, 8:40PM-8:45PM ET Jun 13 $5 −$5 -90%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 12, 8:30PM-8:35PM ET Jun 13 $5 −$5 -94%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 12, 8:25PM-8:30PM ET Jun 13 $27 −$25 -94%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 12, 8:15PM-8:20PM ET Jun 13 $10 −$10 -95%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 12, 8:10PM-8:15PM ET Jun 13 $33 +$61 +186%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 12, 8:05PM-8:10PM ET Jun 13 $32 +$33 +106%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 12, 7:55PM-8:00PM ET Jun 12 $26 +$6 +21%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 12, 7:50PM-7:55PM ET Jun 12 $26 −$25 -96%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 12, 7:30PM-7:35PM ET Jun 12 $26 +$34 +129%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 12, 7:25PM-7:30PM ET Jun 12 $31 +$7 +21%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 12, 7:20PM-7:25PM ET Jun 12 $26 +$1 +3%
Bitcoin Up or Down - April 22, 7:50AM-7:55AM ET Apr 22 $7 +$2 +22%
Bitcoin Up or Down - April 22, 7:55AM-8:00AM ET Apr 22 $9 −$9 -99%
Bitcoin Up or Down - April 22, 7:40AM-7:45AM ET Apr 22 $6 +$1 +19%
Bitcoin Up or Down - April 22, 3:45AM-3:50AM ET Apr 22 $30 −$20 -66%
Bitcoin Up or Down - April 22, 3:40AM-3:45AM ET Apr 22 $10 −$5 -48%
Bitcoin Up or Down - April 22, 3:35AM-3:40AM ET Apr 22 $1 +$1 +55%
Bitcoin Up or Down - April 22, 3:30AM-3:35AM ET Apr 22 $20 +$10 +48%
Latest 50 closed markets. Resolution = Polymarket fact (redeemable/curPrice), not a timer.
Latest trades by this wallet
Marketsidepricesizewhen
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 17, 10:55PM-11:00PM ET BUY Up 18¢ $26 2d
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 17, 10:55PM-11:00PM ET SELL Down 24¢ $17 2d
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 17, 10:55PM-11:00PM ET BUY Down 34¢ $26 2d
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 17, 10:55PM-11:00PM ET SELL Up 57¢ $36 2d
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 17, 10:55PM-11:00PM ET BUY Up 39¢ $26 2d
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 17, 10:50PM-10:55PM ET SELL Up 3¢ $4 2d
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 17, 10:50PM-10:55PM ET BUY Up 17¢ $26 2d
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 13, 8:15AM-8:20AM ET BUY Down 42¢ $26 6d
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 13, 8:15AM-8:20AM ET SELL Up 61¢ $38 6d
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 13, 8:15AM-8:20AM ET BUY Up 39¢ $26 6d
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 13, 8:05AM-8:10AM ET SELL Up 6¢ $2 6d
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 13, 8:05AM-8:10AM ET BUY Up 22¢ $26 6d
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 13, 7:50AM-7:55AM ET BUY Up 59¢ $26 6d
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 13, 7:50AM-7:55AM ET BUY Up 56¢ $26 6d
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 13, 7:50AM-7:55AM ET SELL Down 55¢ $30 6d
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 13, 7:50AM-7:55AM ET BUY Down 45¢ $26 6d
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 13, 7:45AM-7:50AM ET BUY Up 35¢ $26 6d
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 13, 7:40AM-7:45AM ET BUY Down 24¢ $26 6d
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 13, 7:35AM-7:40AM ET BUY Up 31¢ $26 6d
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 13, 7:30AM-7:35AM ET BUY Up 19¢ $26 6d
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 13, 7:25AM-7:30AM ET BUY Up 1¢ $107 6d
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 13, 7:25AM-7:30AM ET BUY Up 34¢ $26 6d
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 13, 7:20AM-7:25AM ET BUY Down 72¢ $25 6d
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 13, 12:10AM-12:15AM ET BUY Down 40¢ $26 7d
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 13, 12:05AM-12:10AM ET BUY Up 38¢ $26 7d
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 13, 12:00AM-12:05AM ET SELL Down 75¢ $56 7d
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 13, 12:00AM-12:05AM ET BUY Down 33¢ $26 7d
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 12, 11:55PM-12:00AM ET SELL Down 72¢ $46 7d
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 12, 11:55PM-12:00AM ET BUY Down 38¢ $26 7d
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 12, 11:50PM-11:55PM ET BUY Down 35¢ $26 7d
From the wallet’s activity history (Polymarket /activity), latest 30.
✓ Calibrated vs Polymarket: our portfolio calc $0.00 · official $0.00 (match) · 191 history records