Wallet analysis

2026-06-14T00:54:26+00:00

trader profile + honest PnL by actual resolution and NET edge after slippage — worth copying?

84
0x848d…9867
sports · 690 markets active 1h ago
0.0score
−$202 -0%
TOTAL PnL · realized −$319 · open +$4
avoidriskycopy
✗ TRAP sports specialistFading edge⚠ High turnover
Copy trade Watchlist View on Polymarket ↗
Net worth$290
Realized−$319
Unrealized+$4
Win rate (resolved)61%
Wins / losses421 / 266
Est. fees paid−$904
Open positions3
Markets (closed)687 / 690
History coverage52d
Avg bet$84
Trades / day59.0
Drawdown100%
Kalshi-fit99%
Chart Positions 3 History 687 Categories Trades Net edge Slippage
1W 1M 3M YTD 1Y All
2 days−$1,112
7 days−$1,221
14 days−$831
30 days−$1,467
Cards show realized PnL over calendar windows (by resolution date). The “Total PnL” chart appears for wallets we track daily.
Open positions — marked to current price, like Polymarket
Marketoutcome entrynow investedvalue unrealized PnL
Will Scotland win on 2026-06-13? Yes 63¢ 62¢ $126 $125 −$1 (-1%)
Will Türkiye win on 2026-06-14? Yes 58¢ 57¢ $116 $115 −$1 (-1%)
Will Brazil vs. Morocco end in a draw? Yes 87¢ 100¢ $44 $50 +$6 (+15%)
Counter-Strike: FURIA vs MOUZ (BO3) - IEM Cologne Major Stage 3 MOUZ 10¢ 0¢ $5 $0 −$5 (-100%)
Counter-Strike: B8 vs FUT Esports - Map 1 Winner FUT Esports 69¢ 0¢ $17 $0 −$17 (-100%)
Counter-Strike: TheMongolz vs B8 - Map 2 Winner B8 19¢ 0¢ $26 $0 −$26 (-100%)
Counter-Strike: TheMongolz vs BetBoom Team (BO3) - IEM Cologne Major Stage 3 TheMongolz 48¢ 0¢ $97 $0 −$97 (-100%)
Dota 2: GLYPH vs REKONIX - Game 4 Winner REKONIX 40¢ 0¢ $20 $0 −$20 (-100%)
Counter-Strike: Liquid vs Heroic - Map 1 Winner Heroic 17¢ 0¢ $25 $0 −$25 (-100%)
Counter-Strike: B8 vs GamerLegion (BO3) - IEM Cologne Major Stage 2 GamerLegion 70¢ 0¢ $70 $0 −$70 (-100%)
Counter-Strike: Vitality vs 9z - Map 1 Winner 9z 10¢ 0¢ $10 $0 −$10 (-100%)
Dota 2: L1ga Team vs Poor Rangers (BO3) - Esports World Cup Eastern Europe Closed Qualifier Playoffs L1ga Team 20¢ 0¢ $3 $0 −$3 (-100%)
Counter-Strike: B8 vs GamerLegion - Map 2 Winner B8 45¢ 0¢ $22 $0 −$22 (-100%)
Counter-Strike: PARIVISION vs Monte - Map 2 Winner PARIVISION 49¢ 0¢ $49 $0 −$49 (-100%)
Dota 2: Team Falcons vs Aurora - Game 1 Winner Aurora 70¢ 0¢ $140 $0 −$140 (-100%)
Counter-Strike: Team Falcons vs BetBoom Team (BO3) - IEM Cologne Major Stage 3 Team Falcons 47¢ 0¢ $148 $0 −$148 (-100%)
Counter-Strike: Vitality vs FUT Esports - Map 1 Winner Vitality 27¢ 0¢ $41 $0 −$41 (-100%)
Counter-Strike: Vitality vs MOUZ - Map 2 Winner Vitality 26¢ 0¢ $103 $0 −$103 (-100%)
Counter-Strike: Natus Vincere vs Spirit - Map 2 Winner Natus Vincere 23¢ 0¢ $70 $0 −$70 (-100%)
Dota 2: LGD Gaming vs Team Liquid - Game 1 Winner Team Liquid 53¢ 0¢ $132 $0 −$132 (-100%)
Dota 2: GLYPH vs REKONIX (BO5) - Esports World Cup Southeast Asia Closed Qualifier Playoffs GLYPH 50¢ 0¢ $50 $0 −$50 (-100%)
Dota 2: REKONIX vs Mentality Monster - Game 2 Winner REKONIX 60¢ 0¢ $90 $0 −$90 (-100%)
Counter-Strike: Astralis vs paiN (BO3) - IEM Cologne Major Stage 2 Astralis 1¢ 0¢ $1 $0 −$1 (-100%)
Counter-Strike: Spirit vs 9z - Map 1 Winner Spirit 54¢ 0¢ $108 $0 −$108 (-100%)
Counter-Strike: FURIA vs MOUZ - Map 2 Winner FURIA 45¢ 0¢ $45 $0 −$45 (-100%)
Top-25 open positions by current value. Prices in cents = market-implied probability (50¢ = 50%).
Closed markets — PnL by actual resolution, newest first
MarketwheninvestedPnLROI
Will Haiti win on 2026-06-13? Jun 14 $28 −$3 -10%
Will Brazil win on 2026-06-13? Jun 14 $107 −$86 -80%
Counter-Strike: Spirit vs 9z - Map 2 Winner Jun 13 $609 +$120 +20%
Counter-Strike: Spirit vs 9z (BO3) - IEM Cologne Major Stage 3 Jun 13 $2,291 −$188 -8%
Counter-Strike: Spirit vs 9z - Map 1 Winner Jun 13 $345 −$103 -30%
Games Total: O/U 2.5 Jun 13 $34 −$25 -74%
Counter-Strike: BetBoom Team vs FURIA - Map 2 Winner Jun 13 $163 +$41 +25%
Counter-Strike: BetBoom Team vs FURIA (BO3) - IEM Cologne Major Stage Jun 13 $293 +$66 +22%
Counter-Strike: Vitality vs MOUZ (BO3) - IEM Cologne Major Stage 3 Jun 13 $247 −$8 -3%
Counter-Strike: BetBoom Team vs FURIA - Map 1 Winner Jun 13 $188 +$37 +20%
Will Switzerland win on 2026-06-13? Jun 13 $42 −$42 -100%
Counter-Strike: PARIVISION vs Legacy (BO3) - IEM Cologne Major Stage 3 Jun 13 $140 −$63 -45%
Counter-Strike: PARIVISION vs Legacy - Map 2 Winner Jun 13 $26 −$26 -100%
Counter-Strike: Team Falcons vs Monte (BO3) - IEM Cologne Major Stage Jun 13 $97 +$4 +4%
Counter-Strike: Vitality vs MOUZ - Map 1 Winner Jun 13 $70 +$30 +42%
Counter-Strike: PARIVISION vs Legacy - Map 1 Winner Jun 13 $33 +$7 +22%
Counter-Strike: Vitality vs MOUZ - Map 2 Winner Jun 13 $104 −$103 -99%
Counter-Strike: Aurora Gaming vs G2 - Map 2 Winner Jun 13 $62 +$50 +81%
Counter-Strike: Team Falcons vs Monte - Map 2 Winner Jun 13 $59 −$34 -58%
Counter-Strike: Aurora Gaming vs G2 - Map 1 Winner Jun 13 $24 −$23 -98%
Counter-Strike: Natus Vincere vs TheMongolz (BO3) - IEM Cologne Major Jun 13 $172 −$2 -1%
Counter-Strike: B8 vs FUT Esports (BO3) - IEM Cologne Major Stage 3 Jun 13 $250 −$79 -32%
Counter-Strike: Natus Vincere vs TheMongolz - Map 2 Winner Jun 13 $35 +$1 +3%
Counter-Strike: Natus Vincere vs TheMongolz - Map 1 Winner Jun 13 $68 −$6 -9%
Counter-Strike: B8 vs FUT Esports - Map 1 Winner Jun 13 $17 −$17 -100%
Counter-Strike: Vitality vs 9z (BO3) - IEM Cologne Major Stage 3 Jun 12 $70 −$70 -100%
Counter-Strike: Aurora Gaming vs Spirit (BO3) - IEM Cologne Major Stag Jun 12 $67 +$13 +20%
Counter-Strike: Aurora Gaming vs Spirit - Map 1 Winner Jun 12 $90 −$87 -97%
Counter-Strike: Vitality vs 9z - Map 2 Winner Jun 12 $77 −$76 -99%
Counter-Strike: Vitality vs 9z - Map 1 Winner Jun 12 $51 −$10 -19%
Counter-Strike: Team Falcons vs BetBoom Team (BO3) - IEM Cologne Major Jun 12 $149 −$148 -100%
Counter-Strike: Natus Vincere vs Legacy - Map 2 Winner Jun 12 $77 +$13 +17%
Counter-Strike: Team Falcons vs BetBoom Team - Map 1 Winner Jun 12 $85 −$61 -72%
Counter-Strike: Natus Vincere vs Legacy - Map 1 Winner Jun 12 $73 −$36 -49%
Counter-Strike: FUT Esports vs G2 (BO3) - IEM Cologne Major Stage 3 Jun 12 $268 +$11 +4%
Counter-Strike: Natus Vincere vs Legacy (BO3) - IEM Cologne Major Stag Jun 12 $71 +$5 +8%
Counter-Strike: PARIVISION vs Monte (BO3) - IEM Cologne Major Stage 3 Jun 12 $248 −$173 -70%
Counter-Strike: FUT Esports vs G2 - Map 2 Winner Jun 12 $14 $0 +3%
Counter-Strike: PARIVISION vs Monte - Map 1 Winner Jun 12 $82 +$1 +1%
Counter-Strike: FURIA vs MOUZ (BO3) - IEM Cologne Major Stage 3 Jun 12 $71 −$5 -7%
Counter-Strike: PARIVISION vs Monte - Map 2 Winner Jun 12 $49 −$49 -99%
Counter-Strike: FUT Esports vs G2 - Map 1 Winner Jun 12 $27 −$27 -100%
Counter-Strike: TheMongolz vs B8 (BO3) - IEM Cologne Major Stage 3 Jun 12 $72 +$28 +40%
Counter-Strike: TheMongolz vs B8 - Map 2 Winner Jun 12 $28 −$28 -99%
Counter-Strike: TheMongolz vs B8 - Map 1 Winner Jun 12 $53 +$47 +90%
Counter-Strike: FURIA vs MOUZ - Map 1 Winner Jun 12 $63 +$37 +59%
Counter-Strike: FURIA vs MOUZ - Map 2 Winner Jun 12 $46 −$45 -99%
Will Mexico win on 2026-06-11? Jun 11 $43 +$7 +16%
Counter-Strike: Natus Vincere vs Spirit (BO3) - IEM Cologne Major Stag Jun 11 $136 −$7 -5%
Counter-Strike: Natus Vincere vs Spirit - Map 2 Winner Jun 11 $71 −$70 -98%
Latest 50 closed markets. Resolution = Polymarket fact (redeemable/curPrice), not a timer.
sports 99% −$150
other 1% −$165
Share of volume and PnL by niche (realized + unrealized). Shows where the trader actually earns — and where they bleed.
Latest trades by this wallet
Marketsidepricesizewhen
Will Türkiye win on 2026-06-14? BUY Yes 58¢ $117 40m
Will Haiti win on 2026-06-13? SELL Yes 16¢ $25 43m
Will Haiti win on 2026-06-13? BUY Yes 17¢ $28 43m
Will Scotland win on 2026-06-13? BUY Yes 63¢ $127 44m
Will Brazil vs. Morocco end in a draw? BUY Yes 87¢ $44 52m
Will Brazil vs. Morocco end in a draw? SELL Yes 78¢ $232 54m
Will Brazil win on 2026-06-13? SELL Yes 11¢ $21 54m
Will Brazil vs. Morocco end in a draw? BUY Yes 43¢ $87 1h
Counter-Strike: Spirit vs 9z (BO3) - IEM Cologne Major Stage 3 SELL Spirit 100¢ $499 1h
Will Brazil vs. Morocco end in a draw? BUY Yes 36¢ $36 2h
Will Brazil win on 2026-06-13? BUY Yes 47¢ $48 2h
Counter-Strike: Spirit vs 9z (BO3) - IEM Cologne Major Stage 3 BUY Spirit 69¢ $69 2h
Counter-Strike: Spirit vs 9z (BO3) - IEM Cologne Major Stage 3 BUY Spirit 50¢ $102 2h
Counter-Strike: Spirit vs 9z (BO3) - IEM Cologne Major Stage 3 BUY Spirit 38¢ $77 2h
Counter-Strike: Spirit vs 9z (BO3) - IEM Cologne Major Stage 3 SELL 9z 68¢ $238 2h
Counter-Strike: Spirit vs 9z (BO3) - IEM Cologne Major Stage 3 SELL Spirit 57¢ $114 2h
Counter-Strike: Spirit vs 9z (BO3) - IEM Cologne Major Stage 3 BUY 9z 45¢ $23 2h
Counter-Strike: Spirit vs 9z (BO3) - IEM Cologne Major Stage 3 BUY Spirit 72¢ $73 2h
Counter-Strike: Spirit vs 9z (BO3) - IEM Cologne Major Stage 3 BUY Spirit 43¢ $17 2h
Counter-Strike: Spirit vs 9z (BO3) - IEM Cologne Major Stage 3 BUY Spirit 43¢ $26 2h
Counter-Strike: Spirit vs 9z (BO3) - IEM Cologne Major Stage 3 SELL Spirit 24¢ $28 2h
Counter-Strike: Spirit vs 9z (BO3) - IEM Cologne Major Stage 3 BUY 9z 77¢ $78 2h
Counter-Strike: Spirit vs 9z (BO3) - IEM Cologne Major Stage 3 SELL Spirit 52¢ $129 2h
Counter-Strike: Spirit vs 9z (BO3) - IEM Cologne Major Stage 3 SELL Spirit 52¢ $15 2h
Counter-Strike: Spirit vs 9z (BO3) - IEM Cologne Major Stage 3 BUY Spirit 55¢ $93 2h
Counter-Strike: Spirit vs 9z (BO3) - IEM Cologne Major Stage 3 BUY Spirit 55¢ $6 2h
Counter-Strike: Spirit vs 9z (BO3) - IEM Cologne Major Stage 3 BUY Spirit 55¢ $6 2h
Counter-Strike: Spirit vs 9z (BO3) - IEM Cologne Major Stage 3 BUY Spirit 55¢ $6 2h
Counter-Strike: Spirit vs 9z (BO3) - IEM Cologne Major Stage 3 BUY Spirit 50¢ $102 2h
Counter-Strike: Spirit vs 9z (BO3) - IEM Cologne Major Stage 3 BUY 9z 75¢ $14 2h
From the wallet’s activity history (Polymarket /activity), latest 30.
negative after costs — do not copy
break-even: the trader needs > 10.5% gross ROI/market for the copier to break even
chance a trade nets +53%
net ROI/market (all)-7.3%
timeframemarkets gross ROINET ROI gross WRNET WR net PnL (wtd)
≤7d 117 -16.5% -24.4% 56% 41% -15.7%
≤30d 446 -3.1% -12.3% 59% 50% -12.2%
≤90d 687 +2.5% -7.3% 61% 53% -9.6%
all 687 +2.5% -7.3% 61% 53% -9.6%
<b>gross</b> = as the leader traded. <b>net</b> = what WE’d keep after slippage (we enter later, price moved). Net ROI ≤ 0 → copying loses even if the leader profits.
turnover59.0 tr/day
realistic slip~13%
edge survives to0%
copier slippageNET ROINET WRnet PnL (wtd)
5% ideal -7.3% 53% -9.6%
10% ← realistic here -16.1% 42% -18.3%
15% -24.2% 31% -26.2%
20% -31.7% 21% -33.4%
Realistic slippage grows with turnover and leader size. If net ROI turns negative before the realistic slip — it’s a <b>trap</b>: leader profits, you lose.
✓ Calibrated vs Polymarket: our portfolio calc $289.97 · official $289.98 (match) · 3500 history records