Wallet analysis

2026-06-13T04:46:43+00:00

trader profile + honest PnL by actual resolution and NET edge after slippage — worth copying?

84
0x848c…13e2
other · 49 markets active 1h ago
0.0score
+$20 +2%
TOTAL PnL · realized +$43 · open −$23
avoidriskycopy
✗ TRAP ⚠ High turnover⚠ Small sample
Copy trade Watchlist View on Polymarket ↗
Net worth$262
Realized+$43
Unrealized−$23
Win rate (resolved)32%
Wins / losses6 / 13
Est. fees paid−$2
Open positions30
Markets (closed)19 / 49
History coverage1d
Avg bet$19
Trades / day65.2
Drawdown68%
Kalshi-fit51%
Chart Positions 30 History 19 Categories Trades Net edge Slippage
1W 1M 3M YTD 1Y All
2 days+$43
7 days+$43
14 days+$43
30 days+$43
Cards show realized PnL over calendar windows (by resolution date). The “Total PnL” chart appears for wallets we track daily.
Open positions — marked to current price, like Polymarket
Marketoutcome entrynow investedvalue unrealized PnL
Will Ecuador win on 2026-06-14? Yes 40¢ 40¢ $33 $33 +$0 (+1%)
Will Scotland win on 2026-06-13? Yes 62¢ 62¢ $20 $20 +$0 (+0%)
Will Switzerland win on 2026-06-13? Yes 81¢ 80¢ $20 $20 −$0 (-1%)
Will Brazil win on 2026-06-13? Yes 58¢ 58¢ $15 $15 +$0 (+1%)
Brazil vs. Morocco: Both Teams to Score Yes 48¢ 48¢ $15 $15 −$0 (-1%)
Will Türkiye win on 2026-06-14? Yes 58¢ 56¢ $15 $15 −$0 (-2%)
Will Qatar vs. Switzerland end in a draw? No 87¢ 86¢ $10 $10 −$0 (-1%)
Will Japan win on 2026-06-14? No 75¢ 74¢ $10 $10 −$0 (-1%)
Will Australia win on 2026-06-14? No 82¢ 81¢ $10 $10 −$0 (-1%)
Will Haiti vs. Scotland end in a draw? No 78¢ 78¢ $10 $10 −$0 (-1%)
Will Australia vs. Türkiye end in a draw? No 75¢ 74¢ $10 $10 −$0 (-1%)
Will Côte d'Ivoire win on 2026-06-14? No 74¢ 74¢ $10 $10 −$0 (-1%)
Will Sweden win on 2026-06-14? Yes 51¢ 50¢ $10 $10 −$0 (-1%)
Will Tunisia win on 2026-06-14? No 79¢ 78¢ $5 $5 −$0 (-1%)
Will Netherlands vs. Japan end in a draw? No 74¢ 74¢ $5 $5 −$0 (-1%)
Will Sweden vs. Tunisia end in a draw? No 73¢ 72¢ $5 $5 −$0 (-1%)
Will Côte d'Ivoire vs. Ecuador end in a draw? No 67¢ 66¢ $5 $5 −$0 (-1%)
Germany vs. Curaçao: Both Teams to Score No 67¢ 66¢ $5 $5 −$0 (-1%)
Germany vs. Curaçao: Curaçao O/U 0.5 Under 65¢ 64¢ $5 $5 −$0 (-1%)
Côte d'Ivoire vs. Ecuador: O/U 1.5 Over 60¢ 60¢ $5 $5 −$0 (-1%)
Will Spain win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Yes 17¢ 17¢ $5 $5 −$0 (-1%)
Netherlands vs. Japan: Both Teams to Score Yes 54¢ 54¢ $5 $5 −$0 (-1%)
Haiti vs. Scotland: Both Teams to Score No 52¢ 52¢ $5 $5 −$0 (-1%)
Will Netherlands win on 2026-06-14? Yes 48¢ 48¢ $5 $5 −$0 (-1%)
Germany vs. Curaçao: Germany O/U 3.5 Under 45¢ 44¢ $5 $5 −$0 (-1%)
Top-25 open positions by current value. Prices in cents = market-implied probability (50¢ = 50%).
Closed markets — PnL by actual resolution, newest first
MarketwheninvestedPnLROI
Will Brazil vs. Morocco end in a draw? Jun 13 $10 $0 -3%
Will Morocco win on 2026-06-13? Jun 13 $10 $0 -2%
Will Paraguay win on 2026-06-12? Jun 13 $31 −$30 -99%
United States vs. Paraguay: Both Teams to Score Jun 13 $5 +$6 +112%
Will Canada vs. Bosnia and Herzegovina end in a draw? Jun 12 $10 +$6 +60%
Will Bosnia and Herzegovina win on 2026-06-12? Jun 12 $41 −$34 -85%
Jonathan David: 1+ goals Jun 12 $1 −$1 -100%
Will Korea Republic win on 2026-06-11? Jun 12 $5 −$5 -100%
Will Korea Republic vs. Czechia end in a draw? Jun 12 $15 −$15 -100%
Will Canada win on 2026-06-12? Jun 12 $121 −$6 -5%
Exact Score: Canada 2 - 1 Bosnia-Herzegovina? Jun 12 $1 $0 -29%
Julio César Enciso: 1+ goals Jun 12 $1 −$1 -98%
Exact Score: United States 1 - 2 Paraguay? Jun 12 $1 −$1 -97%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 12, 2:00AM-2:15AM ET Jun 12 $5 +$1 +23%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 12, 1:45AM-2:00AM ET Jun 12 $10 −$1 -7%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 11, 9:00PM-9:05PM ET Jun 12 $11 −$11 -100%
Will Czechia win on 2026-06-11? Jun 12 $5 +$2 +46%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 11, 8:50PM-8:55PM ET Jun 12 $5 +$3 +50%
Will Mexico win on 2026-06-11? Jun 11 $303 +$132 +43%
Latest 50 closed markets. Resolution = Polymarket fact (redeemable/curPrice), not a timer.
other 80% +$32
sports 16% −$5
crypto 4% −$8
tech 0% $0
Share of volume and PnL by niche (realized + unrealized). Shows where the trader actually earns — and where they bleed.
Latest trades by this wallet
Marketsidepricesizewhen
Côte d'Ivoire vs. Ecuador: O/U 1.5 BUY Over 60¢ $5 1h
Will Côte d'Ivoire win on 2026-06-14? BUY No 74¢ $10 1h
Will Côte d'Ivoire vs. Ecuador end in a draw? BUY No 67¢ $5 1h
Côte d'Ivoire vs. Ecuador: Ecuador O/U 0.5 BUY Over 69¢ $5 1h
Côte d'Ivoire vs. Ecuador: Both Teams to Score BUY Yes 42¢ $5 1h
Will Sweden vs. Tunisia end in a draw? BUY No 73¢ $5 1h
Will Tunisia win on 2026-06-14? BUY No 79¢ $5 1h
Netherlands vs. Japan: Both Teams to Score BUY Yes 54¢ $5 1h
Will Netherlands vs. Japan end in a draw? BUY No 74¢ $5 1h
Will Japan win on 2026-06-14? BUY No 75¢ $10 1h
Will Netherlands win on 2026-06-14? BUY Yes 48¢ $5 1h
Will Japan win on 2026-06-14? SELL No 74¢ $9 1h
Will Netherlands vs. Japan end in a draw? SELL Yes 26¢ $5 1h
Will Netherlands win on 2026-06-14? SELL No 52¢ $5 1h
Germany vs. Curaçao: Both Teams to Score BUY No 67¢ $5 1h
Germany vs. Curaçao: Curaçao O/U 0.5 BUY Under 65¢ $5 1h
Will Türkiye win on 2026-06-14? BUY Yes 57¢ $5 1h
Will Australia win on 2026-06-14? BUY No 82¢ $10 1h
Will Australia vs. Türkiye end in a draw? BUY No 75¢ $10 1h
Haiti vs. Scotland: Both Teams to Score BUY No 52¢ $5 1h
Will Brazil win on 2026-06-13? BUY Yes 58¢ $10 1h
Will Scotland win on 2026-06-13? BUY Yes 63¢ $5 1h
Will Brazil win on 2026-06-13? BUY Yes 58¢ $5 1h
Brazil vs. Morocco: Both Teams to Score BUY Yes 48¢ $10 1h
Will Brazil vs. Morocco end in a draw? SELL No 75¢ $10 1h
Will Morocco win on 2026-06-13? SELL No 82¢ $10 1h
Will Brazil win on 2026-06-13? SELL Yes 57¢ $15 1h
Will Haiti vs. Scotland end in a draw? BUY No 78¢ $10 1h
Brazil vs. Morocco: Both Teams to Score BUY Yes 48¢ $5 1h
Will Morocco win on 2026-06-13? BUY No 83¢ $10 1h
From the wallet’s activity history (Polymarket /activity), latest 30.
negative after costs — do not copy
break-even: the trader needs > 10.5% gross ROI/market for the copier to break even
chance a trade nets +32%
net ROI/market (all)-33.2%
timeframemarkets gross ROINET ROI gross WRNET WR net PnL (wtd)
≤7d 19 -26.1% -33.2% 32% 32% -2.9%
≤30d 19 -26.1% -33.2% 32% 32% -2.9%
≤90d 19 -26.1% -33.2% 32% 32% -2.9%
all 19 -26.1% -33.2% 32% 32% -2.9%
<b>gross</b> = as the leader traded. <b>net</b> = what WE’d keep after slippage (we enter later, price moved). Net ROI ≤ 0 → copying loses even if the leader profits.
turnover65.2 tr/day
realistic slip~13%
edge survives to0%
copier slippageNET ROINET WRnet PnL (wtd)
5% ideal -33.2% 32% -2.9%
10% ← realistic here -39.6% 32% -12.2%
15% -45.4% 26% -20.7%
20% -50.7% 11% -28.4%
Realistic slippage grows with turnover and leader size. If net ROI turns negative before the realistic slip — it’s a <b>trap</b>: leader profits, you lose.
✓ Calibrated vs Polymarket: our portfolio calc $261.64 · official $261.64 (match) · 100 history records