trader profile + honest PnL by actual resolution and NET edge after slippage — worth copying?
| Market | outcome | entry | now | invested | value | unrealized PnL |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Strait of Hormuz traffic returns to normal by July 31? | No | 51¢ | 50¢ | $35 | $35 | −$0 (-1%) |
| Israel closes its airspace by June 9? | No | 98¢ | 100¢ | $1 | $1 | +$0 (+3%) |
| Market | when | invested | PnL | ROI |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Will Russia capture all of Kupiansk by June 30? | Jun 13 | $32 | $0 | -0% |
| Will Benjamin Netanyahu be the next Prime Minister of Israel? | Jun 12 | $32 | $0 | -2% |
| Israel x Iran permanent peace deal by June 30, 2026? | Jun 10 | $22 | $0 | -0% |
| Israel closes its airspace by June 9? | Jun 09 | $33 | $0 | +1% |
| Iran Nuke before 2027? | Jun 08 | $7 | $0 | +1% |
| Will Alberta join the US? | Jun 07 | $69 | $0 | +0% |
| Ukraine agrees not to join NATO by June 30? | Jun 07 | $69 | $0 | +0% |
| Iran closes its airspace by June 30? | Jun 06 | $33 | $0 | +0% |
| Israel and Indonesia normalize relations by June 30, 2026? | Jun 05 | $1 | $0 | +0% |
| Will Jeannette Jara win the Chilean presidential election? | Mar 31 | $4 | −$1 | -18% |
| Will Solana dip to $100 in June? | Mar 31 | $0 | $0 | -100% |
| Will the Atlanta Braves win the 2025 World Series? | Jun 26 | $12 | $0 | +0% |
| Will federal spending decrease by $250-500b between Q4 2024 and Q2 202 | Jun 07 | $9 | $0 | +0% |
| Will HNP win the most seats in the Chamber of Deputies following the 2 | Jun 05 | $9 | $0 | +0% |
| Will Kim Moon-soo be elected the next president of South Korea? | Jun 05 | $11 | $0 | +4% |
| Will Ethereum reach $3500 in May? | Jun 02 | $2 | $0 | +2% |
| Will Mario Grech be the next pope? | May 09 | $2 | $0 | +1% |
| Will the Houston Rockets win the 2025 NBA Finals? | May 07 | $1 | $0 | +2% |
| Will CDU/CSU and SPD form the next German Government? | Apr 17 | $12 | $0 | -0% |
| Will Another team win the UEFA Europa League? | Apr 16 | $11 | $0 | -0% |
| Will Trump's approval rating be 48.5% or moreon March 28? | Mar 30 | $12 | $0 | +1% |
| Will the Memphis Grizzlies win the Western Conference? | Mar 24 | $1 | $0 | -5% |
| Will Ukraine win Eurovision 2025? | Mar 24 | $12 | $0 | +0% |
| Will the highest temperature in London be 64°F or higher on March 23? | Mar 23 | $13 | $0 | +0% |
| timeframe | markets | gross ROI | NET ROI | gross WR | NET WR | net PnL (wtd) |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| ≤7d | 7 | +3.2% | -6.6% | 57% | 14% | -9.6% |
| ≤30d | 9 | +2.5% | -7.3% | 56% | 11% | -9.5% |
| ≤90d | 11 | -8.7% | -17.4% | 45% | 9% | -9.8% |
| all | 24 | -3.7% | -12.9% | 58% | 4% | -9.6% |
| copier slippage | NET ROI | NET WR | net PnL (wtd) |
|---|---|---|---|
| 5% ideal ← realistic here | -12.9% | 4% | -9.6% |
| 10% | -21.2% | 4% | -18.2% |
| 15% | -28.9% | 0% | -26.1% |
| 20% | -35.8% | 0% | -33.4% |