Wallet analysis

2026-06-19T10:39:06+00:00

trader profile + honest PnL by actual resolution and NET edge after slippage — worth copying?

0.0
score
84 0x848a…927b world 34 markets active 0h ago coverage 477d
TRAPdo not copy Fresh edge
✗ profit hinges on one bet (luck, not edge)✗ wins on margins thinner than slippage
Total PnL −$2 (-0%) realized −$2 · open +$0
Gross ROI / mkt +55% what the leader earns
−copy tax
Net edge / mkt +40% what you keep after slip
Net edge+40%after slip
Net WR3%break-even
Win rate41%14W / 20L
Drawdown100%max
Avg bet$23per market
Trades / day0.2pace
Kalshi-fit88%portable
Net worth$0now

Equity curve

realized PnL
1W 1M 3M YTD 1Y All
2 days−$6
7 days−$6
14 days−$6
30 days−$2
Cards show realized PnL over calendar windows (by resolution date). The “Total PnL” chart appears for wallets we track daily.

Categories

share · PnL
world 77% −$2
politics 7% $0
weather 6% +$1
sports 4% $0
other 4% −$2
economics 2% $0
crypto 0% $0
Share of volume and PnL by niche (realized + unrealized). Shows where the trader actually earns — and where they bleed.

The copy-tax — evidence

gross is the leader · net is you

Net edge · by timeframe

gross → net
borderline — thin edge, slippage-sensitive
break-even: the trader needs > 10.5% gross ROI/market for the copier to break even
chance a trade nets +3%
net ROI/market (all)+40.3%
timeframemarkets gross ROINET ROI gross WRNET WR net PnL (wtd)
≤7d 3 -1.7% -11.1% 33% 0% -12.7%
≤30d 17 +116.0% +95.4% 35% 6% -9.8%
≤90d 17 +116.0% +95.4% 35% 6% -9.8%
all 34 +55.0% +40.3% 41% 3% -9.8%
<b>gross</b> = as the leader traded. <b>net</b> = what WE’d keep after slippage (we enter later, price moved). Net ROI ≤ 0 → copying loses even if the leader profits.

Slippage survival

net ROI/WR at slip
turnover0.2 tr/day
realistic slip~5%
edge survives to20%
copier slippageNET ROINET WRnet PnL (wtd)
5% ideal ← realistic here +40.3% 3% -9.8%
10% +26.9% 3% -18.5%
15% +14.6% 3% -26.3%
20% +3.4% 3% -33.6%
Realistic slippage grows with turnover and leader size. If net ROI turns negative before the realistic slip — it’s a <b>trap</b>: leader profits, you lose.

Edge quality

honest signals — luck vs skill
Profit concentration
top 73% · top 2 83% profit hinges on 1 bet — luck, not edge
Edge freshness (90d)
90d ROI -0% 90d near zero / fading
Fragile wins
93% wins margin < slip most wins thinner than slippage → losses for you
Flat-copyable
equal-wt +55% · $-wt -0% works when copied flat
Big bets
big-bet WR —% no data
Persistence
early -6% → late +116% mixed
Add-ons / DCA
1.8 add-ons/market adds to positions
Win / loss size
+$1 vs −$1 · ×0.64 wins small, loses big
Profit factor
×0.81 loses more than it wins
Copy size
≥ $50 mirror leader trades ≥ this size to copy only main ideas

Supporting detail

477d coverage
Net worth$0
Realized−$2
Unrealized+$0
Win rate (resolved)41%
Wins / losses14 / 20
Open positions0
Markets (closed)34 / 34
History coverage477d
Avg bet$23
Trades / day0.2
Drawdown100%
Kalshi-fit88%

Ledger

positions · history · trades
Positions 0 History 34 Trades
no open positions (1 resolved losses — in realized PnL)
Closed markets — PnL by actual resolution, newest first
MarketwheninvestedPnLROI
Will Avigdor Lieberman be the next Prime Minister of Israel? Jun 19 $39 $0 +0%
Will Naftali Bennett be the next Prime Minister of Israel? Jun 18 $13 $0 +0%
Strait of Hormuz traffic returns to normal by July 31? Jun 18 $112 −$6 -5%
Will Alberta join the US? Jun 07 $11 $0 +2%
Iran closes its airspace by June 30? Jun 06 $42 $0 -0%
Will Alireza Arafi be head of state in Iran end of 2026? Jun 06 $82 $0 +0%
Russia x Ukraine ceasefire agreement by December 31, 2026? Jun 05 $24 $0 +2%
Will Itamar Ben Gvir be the next Prime Minister of Israel? Jun 04 $45 $0 +0%
US x Iran permanent peace deal by July 31, 2026? Jun 01 $65 +$7 +11%
US x Iran permanent peace deal by June 30, 2026? May 30 $3 $0 +0%
Will United Russia (ER) gain the most seats in the next Russian parlia May 29 $22 $0 +0%
Iran leadership change by June 30? May 28 $35 $0 +0%
Will the Iranian regime fall before 2027? May 27 $36 $0 -1%
Will Donald Trump announce that the United States blockade of the Stra May 27 $25 −$1 -3%
Iran closes its airspace by May 31? May 26 $11 −$3 -26%
Will Reza Pahlavi enter Iran by June 30? May 26 $39 $0 +0%
Iran leadership change by May 31? May 25 $1 $0 +4%
Will Krishna Mathoera be the next president of Suriname after the elec Dec 10 $1 $0 +4%
Fed decreases interest rates by 25 bps after June 2025 meeting? Jun 19 $1 $0 +1%
Will Robert Francis Prevost be the next pope? May 10 $2 −$2 -100%
Trump ends taxes on tips in first 100 days? May 06 $16 $0 +0%
Will the price of Bitcoin be between $78000 and $80000 on Apr 18? Apr 19 $2 $0 +3%
Will PRO win the most seats in the Chamber of Deputies following the 2 Apr 02 $1 $0 -0%
Will FIT-U win the most seats in the Chamber of Deputies following the Apr 01 $17 $0 +0%
Will the Toronto Raptors make the NBA Playoffs? Apr 01 $15 $0 +0%
Will Elena Lasconi win the Romanian presidential election? Apr 01 $2 $0 -5%
Will 7 Fed rate cuts happen in 2025? Apr 01 $15 $0 +0%
Will the highest temperature in London be between 66-67°F on March 31? Mar 31 $17 $0 +1%
Will global temperature increase by between 1.37-1.41ºC in March 2025? Mar 30 $17 $0 -1%
Will Trump say "bigly" by March 28? Mar 28 $15 $0 +1%
Will Elon tweet 575-599 times March 21-28? Mar 25 $2 $0 -14%
Will Elon tweet 650 or more times March 21-28? Mar 24 $15 $0 -0%
Mount St. Mary's s vs. Duke Mar 22 $17 $0 +2%
Will the highest temperature in NYC be 59°F or higher on February 27? Mar 21 $15 +$1 +7%
Latest 50 closed markets. Resolution = Polymarket fact (redeemable/curPrice), not a timer.
Latest trades by this wallet
Marketsidepricesizewhen
Will Avigdor Lieberman be the next Prime Minister of Israel? SELL No 96¢ $39 27m
Will Avigdor Lieberman be the next Prime Minister of Israel? BUY No 96¢ $39 1h
Will Naftali Bennett be the next Prime Minister of Israel? SELL Yes 15¢ $13 12h
Will Naftali Bennett be the next Prime Minister of Israel? BUY Yes 15¢ $7 14h
Will Naftali Bennett be the next Prime Minister of Israel? BUY Yes 15¢ $4 14h
Will Naftali Bennett be the next Prime Minister of Israel? BUY Yes 15¢ $2 14h
Strait of Hormuz traffic returns to normal by July 31? SELL No 44¢ $28 19h
Strait of Hormuz traffic returns to normal by July 31? BUY No 46¢ $29 23h
Will Alberta join the US? SELL Yes $0 11d
Will Alberta join the US? SELL Yes $3 11d
Will Alberta join the US? BUY Yes $2 12d
Will Alberta join the US? BUY Yes $2 12d
Will Alberta join the US? SELL Yes $0 12d
Will Alberta join the US? SELL Yes $1 12d
Will Alberta join the US? SELL Yes $1 12d
Will Alberta join the US? SELL Yes $6 12d
Will Alberta join the US? BUY Yes $8 12d
Iran closes its airspace by June 30? SELL No 80¢ $33 13d
Iran closes its airspace by June 30? SELL No 80¢ $9 13d
Iran closes its airspace by June 30? BUY No 81¢ $18 13d
Iran closes its airspace by June 30? BUY No 81¢ $24 13d
Will Alireza Arafi be head of state in Iran end of 2026? SELL No 99¢ $46 13d
Will Alireza Arafi be head of state in Iran end of 2026? BUY No 99¢ $46 13d
Russia x Ukraine ceasefire agreement by December 31, 2026? SELL Yes 50¢ $4 14d
Russia x Ukraine ceasefire agreement by December 31, 2026? SELL Yes 50¢ $20 14d
Russia x Ukraine ceasefire agreement by December 31, 2026? BUY Yes 49¢ $2 14d
Russia x Ukraine ceasefire agreement by December 31, 2026? BUY Yes 49¢ $21 14d
Will Itamar Ben Gvir be the next Prime Minister of Israel? SELL No 99¢ $45 14d
Will Itamar Ben Gvir be the next Prime Minister of Israel? BUY No 99¢ $45 14d
US x Iran permanent peace deal by July 31, 2026? SELL No 62¢ $27 18d
From the wallet’s activity history (Polymarket /activity), latest 30.
Calibrated vs Polymarket: our portfolio calc $0.00 · official $0.00 (match) · 119 history records