Wallet analysis

2026-06-22T07:16:18+00:00

trader profile + honest PnL by actual resolution and NET edge after slippage — worth copying?

0.0
score
84 0x8488…588c other 154 markets active 0h ago coverage 78d ⚠
UNRELIABLEdata unreliable ⚠ High turnover⚠ Covers last 77d onlyP/L from Polymarket (history capped)
✗ on-chain reconstruction ≠ official P&L (longshot/capped history)✗ negative after realistic slippage! high turnover
Total PnL +$9,605 (+1%) realized +$9,565 · open +$40
Copy trade Watchlist View on Polymarket ↗
Gross ROI / mkt -12% what the leader earns
→−copy tax
Net edge / mkt -39% what you keep after slip
Net edge-39%after slip
Net WR48%break-even
Win rate48%72W / 79L
Whale WR71%big bets
Drawdown72%max
Avg bet$5,119per market
Trades / day41.5pace
Fees−$4,528est.
Kalshi-fit41%portable
Net worth$4,622now

Equity curve

realized PnL
Not enough resolved history to chart — analysis covers only 78d (hyperactive wallet — we see only the tail of its trades). A “Total PnL” curve will appear once daily tracking accumulates.

Categories

share · PnL
other 55% +$48,364
sports 41% +$53,898
crypto 4% −$10,859
Share of volume and PnL by niche (realized + unrealized). Shows where the trader actually earns — and where they bleed.

The copy-tax — evidence

gross is the leader · net is you

Net edge · by timeframe

gross → net
negative after costs — do not copy
break-even: the trader needs > 10.5% gross ROI/market for the copier to break even
chance a trade nets +48%
net ROI/market (all)-20.1%
timeframemarkets gross ROINET ROI gross WRNET WR net PnL (wtd)
≤7d 14 +12.3% +1.6% 64% 64% +38.7%
≤30d 73 -1.6% -10.9% 58% 58% +13.0%
≤90d 151 -11.7% -20.1% 48% 48% +1.0%
all 151 -11.7% -20.1% 48% 48% +1.0%
<b>gross</b> = as the leader traded. <b>net</b> = what WE’d keep after slippage (we enter later, price moved). Net ROI ≤ 0 → copying loses even if the leader profits.

Slippage survival

net ROI/WR at slip
turnover41.5 tr/day
realistic slip~18%
edge survives to0%
copier slippageNET ROINET WRnet PnL (wtd)
5% ideal -20.1% 48% +1.0%
10% -27.7% 43% -8.6%
15% ← realistic here -34.7% 39% -17.5%
20% -41.1% 36% -25.6%
Realistic slippage grows with turnover and leader size. If net ROI turns negative before the realistic slip — it’s a <b>trap</b>: leader profits, you lose.

Edge quality

honest signals — luck vs skill
Profit concentration
top 4% · top 2 8% broad-based profit
Edge freshness (90d)
90d ROI +12% fresh edge ✓
Fragile wins
0% wins margin < slip solid win margins
Flat-copyable
equal-wt -12% · $-wt +12% edge needs big-bet sizing — not flat-copyable
Big bets
big-bet WR 71% (≥$8,163) strong on big bets
Persistence
early -23% → late -0% mixed
Add-ons / DCA
20.9 add-ons/market averages down — deposit killer
Win / loss size
+$4,747 vs −$3,170 · ×1.5 wins bigger than losses
Profit factor
×1.36 profit barely above losses
Copy size
≥ $700 mirror leader trades ≥ this size to copy only main ideas

Supporting detail

78d coverage
Net worth$4,622
Realized+$9,565
Unrealized+$40
Win rate (resolved)48%
Wins / losses72 / 79
Whale WR (big bets)71%
Est. fees paid−$4,528
Open positions3
Markets (closed)151 / 154
History coverage78d ⚠
Avg bet$5,119
Trades / day41.5
Drawdown72%
Kalshi-fit41%

Ledger

positions · history · trades
Positions 3 History 151 Trades
Open positions — marked to current price, like Polymarket
Marketoutcome entrynow investedvalue unrealized PnL
Dota 2: REKONIX vs OG (BO3) - The International Southeast Asia Closed Qualifier Playoffs OG 57¢ 57¢ $1,407 $1,429 +$22 (+2%)
Dota 2: GLYPH vs Grind Back (BO3) - The International Southeast Asia Closed Qualifier Playoffs GLYPH 58¢ 56¢ $1,258 $1,196 −$62 (-5%)
Counter-Strike: Walczaki vs KOLESIE (BO5) - European Pro League Series 7 Playoffs KOLESIE 39¢ 39¢ $949 $959 +$10 (+1%)
Counter-Strike: Walczaki vs KOLESIE (BO5) - European Pro League Series 7 Playoffs Walczaki 61¢ 61¢ $642 $640 −$2 (-0%)
Dota 2: GLYPH vs Grind Back (BO3) - The International Southeast Asia Closed Qualifier Playoffs Grind Back 42¢ 44¢ $377 $398 +$21 (+5%)
Top-25 open positions by current value. Prices in cents = market-implied probability (50¢ = 50%).
Closed markets — PnL by actual resolution, newest first
MarketwheninvestedPnLROI
Major League Cricket: Texas Super Kings vs Mi New York Jun 22 $1,472 −$991 -67%
ICC T20 World Cup, Women: South Africa vs India Jun 22 $2,094 −$2,094 -100%
Will Falcons win IEM Cologne Major 2026? Jun 21 $4,110 +$2,772 +67%
Counter-Strike: FURIA vs Team Falcons (BO5) - IEM Cologne Major Playof Jun 21 $7,107 +$4,793 +67%
ICC T20 World Cup, Women: West Indies vs Sri Lanka Jun 21 $1,615 +$1,076 +67%
ICC T20 World Cup, Women: England vs Scotland Jun 20 $272 −$272 -100%
ICC T20 World Cup, Women: Australia vs Netherlands Jun 20 $246 −$246 -100%
Counter-Strike: Aurora Gaming vs FURIA (BO3) - IEM Cologne Major Playo Jun 20 $14,383 +$9,132 +64%
Counter-Strike: Vitality vs Team Falcons (BO3) - IEM Cologne Major Pla Jun 20 $5,513 +$12,487 +226%
LoL: T1 Academy vs KT Rolster Challengers (BO5) - Asia Masters Playoff Jun 19 $1,962 +$498 +25%
LoL: KT Rolster Challengers vs Nongshim Esports Academy (BO5) - Asia M Jun 18 $1,005 −$1,005 -100%
ICC T20 World Cup, Women: West Indies vs Scotland Jun 18 $11,664 +$3,516 +30%
Will Austria win on 2026-06-17? Jun 17 $16,951 +$7,049 +42%
Will France win on 2026-06-16? Jun 16 $15,840 +$8,160 +52%
Will Sweden win on 2026-06-14? Jun 15 $13,187 +$11,813 +90%
Will Brazil win on 2026-06-13? Jun 15 $13,802 −$13,802 -100%
Will Scotland win on 2026-06-13? Jun 14 $14,880 +$9,120 +61%
Valorant: Team Heretics vs Team Vitality (BO3) - VCT Masters London Pl Jun 13 $429 −$429 -100%
Will United States win on 2026-06-12? Jun 13 $13,556 +$11,664 +86%
Counter-Strike: FUT Esports vs G2 (BO3) - IEM Cologne Major Stage 3 Jun 12 $8,075 +$8,637 +107%
Counter-Strike: PARIVISION vs Monte (BO3) - IEM Cologne Major Stage 3 Jun 12 $795 +$973 +122%
Counter-Strike: Team Falcons vs G2 (BO3) - IEM Cologne Major Stage 3 Jun 11 $3,825 +$2,211 +58%
Will Costa Rica win on 2026-06-10? Jun 11 $7 −$7 -100%
Will England win on 2026-06-10? Jun 11 $22,565 +$3,585 +16%
Will China PR win on 2026-06-09? Jun 10 $451 −$451 -100%
Will Spain win on 2026-06-08? Jun 09 $17,055 +$2,957 +17%
Will France win on 2026-06-08? Jun 08 $4,356 +$644 +15%
Will Netherlands win on 2026-06-08? Jun 08 $16,440 +$3,560 +22%
Will Colombia win on 2026-06-07? Jun 08 $20,168 +$4,232 +21%
Will Türkiye win on 2026-06-06? Jun 07 $3,276 +$1,724 +53%
Will Germany win on 2026-06-06? Jun 06 $30 +$19 +62%
Will Belgium win on 2026-06-06? Jun 06 $19,219 +$6,360 +33%
Will China PR win on 2026-06-05? Jun 05 $15,166 +$9,245 +61%
Valorant: QoR vs FlyQuest (BO3) - VCL North America: Stage 3 Group Sta Jun 05 $373 −$373 -100%
Will New Zealand win on 2026-06-02? Jun 05 $743 −$743 -100%
Will Netherlands win on 2026-06-03? Jun 05 $14,420 −$14,420 -100%
Will France win on 2026-06-04? Jun 05 $19,381 −$19,381 -100%
Will Italy win on 2026-06-03? Jun 03 $4,031 +$1,969 +49%
Will Georgia win on 2026-06-02? Jun 02 $3,855 −$3,855 -100%
Will Belgium win on 2026-06-02? Jun 02 $6,128 +$10,218 +167%
Will Canada win on 2026-06-01? Jun 02 $3,714 +$2,286 +62%
Will Croatia win on 2026-06-02? Jun 02 $437 −$28 -6%
Will Norway win on 2026-06-01? Jun 01 $8,129 +$6,690 +82%
Will Slovakia win on 2026-06-01? Jun 01 $2,824 +$700 +25%
Will São Paulo FC win on 2026-05-30? Jun 01 $1,302 −$1,302 -100%
Valorant: LOUD vs NRG (BO5) - Esports World Cup Americas Qualifier Sta Jun 01 $1,388 −$1,388 -100%
Will Germany win on 2026-05-31? May 31 $1,459 +$193 +13%
Will Mexico win on 2026-05-30? May 31 $15,143 +$9,463 +62%
Valorant: LOUD vs Sentinels (BO3) - Esports World Cup Americas Qualifi May 31 $26 +$48 +180%
Will Gamba Ōsaka win on 2026-05-30? May 30 $398 −$398 -100%
Latest 50 closed markets. Resolution = Polymarket fact (redeemable/curPrice), not a timer.
Latest trades by this wallet
Marketsidepricesizewhen
Dota 2: REKONIX vs OG (BO3) - The International Southeast Asia Closed BUY OG 58¢ $252 14m
Dota 2: REKONIX vs OG (BO3) - The International Southeast Asia Closed BUY OG 58¢ $503 16m
Dota 2: REKONIX vs OG (BO3) - The International Southeast Asia Closed BUY OG 57¢ $59 1h
Dota 2: GLYPH vs Grind Back (BO3) - The International Southeast Asia C BUY GLYPH 59¢ $234 1h
Dota 2: GLYPH vs Grind Back (BO3) - The International Southeast Asia C BUY GLYPH 60¢ $134 1h
Dota 2: GLYPH vs Grind Back (BO3) - The International Southeast Asia C BUY GLYPH 58¢ $2 1h
Dota 2: GLYPH vs Grind Back (BO3) - The International Southeast Asia C BUY GLYPH 58¢ $13 1h
Dota 2: GLYPH vs Grind Back (BO3) - The International Southeast Asia C BUY GLYPH 58¢ $50 1h
Dota 2: GLYPH vs Grind Back (BO3) - The International Southeast Asia C BUY GLYPH 58¢ $58 1h
Dota 2: GLYPH vs Grind Back (BO3) - The International Southeast Asia C BUY GLYPH 58¢ $50 1h
Dota 2: GLYPH vs Grind Back (BO3) - The International Southeast Asia C BUY GLYPH 58¢ $368 1h
Dota 2: GLYPH vs Grind Back (BO3) - The International Southeast Asia C BUY Grind Back 43¢ $94 1h
Dota 2: GLYPH vs Grind Back (BO3) - The International Southeast Asia C BUY GLYPH 57¢ $69 1h
Dota 2: REKONIX vs OG (BO3) - The International Southeast Asia Closed BUY OG 55¢ $612 1h
Dota 2: GLYPH vs Grind Back (BO3) - The International Southeast Asia C BUY Grind Back 43¢ $139 1h
Dota 2: GLYPH vs Grind Back (BO3) - The International Southeast Asia C BUY Grind Back 41¢ $3 1h
Dota 2: GLYPH vs Grind Back (BO3) - The International Southeast Asia C BUY Grind Back 41¢ $15 1h
Dota 2: GLYPH vs Grind Back (BO3) - The International Southeast Asia C BUY Grind Back 41¢ $2 1h
Dota 2: GLYPH vs Grind Back (BO3) - The International Southeast Asia C BUY Grind Back 41¢ $4 1h
Dota 2: GLYPH vs Grind Back (BO3) - The International Southeast Asia C BUY Grind Back 41¢ $4 1h
Dota 2: GLYPH vs Grind Back (BO3) - The International Southeast Asia C BUY Grind Back 41¢ $3 1h
Dota 2: GLYPH vs Grind Back (BO3) - The International Southeast Asia C BUY Grind Back 41¢ $24 1h
Dota 2: GLYPH vs Grind Back (BO3) - The International Southeast Asia C BUY Grind Back 41¢ $39 1h
Dota 2: GLYPH vs Grind Back (BO3) - The International Southeast Asia C BUY GLYPH 58¢ $294 1h
Dota 2: GLYPH vs Grind Back (BO3) - The International Southeast Asia C BUY Grind Back 41¢ $55 1h
Counter-Strike: Walczaki vs KOLESIE (BO5) - European Pro League Series BUY Walczaki 61¢ $649 2h
Counter-Strike: Walczaki vs KOLESIE (BO5) - European Pro League Series BUY KOLESIE 39¢ $966 3h
Major League Cricket: Texas Super Kings vs Mi New York BUY Texas Super Kings 48¢ $20 7h
Major League Cricket: Texas Super Kings vs Mi New York BUY Texas Super Kings 48¢ $439 7h
Major League Cricket: Texas Super Kings vs Mi New York BUY Texas Super Kings 48¢ $244 7h
From the wallet’s activity history (Polymarket /activity), latest 30.
✓ Calibrated vs Polymarket: our portfolio calc $4,621.62 · official $4,621.62 (match) · 3500 history records