Wallet analysis

2026-06-20T23:51:24+00:00

trader profile + honest PnL by actual resolution and NET edge after slippage — worth copying?

4.5
score
84 0x8487…7714 other 14 markets active 2h ago coverage 25d
RISKYcopy with care Fresh edge⚠ Small sample
! limited sample (<25 closed)
Total PnL −$251 (-2%) realized −$254 · open +$3
Copy trade Watchlist View on Polymarket ↗
Gross ROI / mkt +24% what the leader earns
→−copy tax
Net edge / mkt +8% what you keep after slip
Net edge+8%after slip
Net WR77%break-even
Win rate77%10W / 3L
Drawdown100%max
Avg bet$901per market
Trades / day0.7pace
Fees−$60est.
Kalshi-fit14%portable
Net worth$503now

Equity curve

realized PnL
1W 1M 3M YTD 1Y All
2 days+$1,685
7 days+$2,622
14 days+$2,622
30 days−$337
Cards show realized PnL over calendar windows (by resolution date). The “Total PnL” chart appears for wallets we track daily.

Categories

share · PnL
other 72% +$2,255
sports 24% −$2,960
crypto 4% +$371
Share of volume and PnL by niche (realized + unrealized). Shows where the trader actually earns — and where they bleed.

The copy-tax — evidence

gross is the leader · net is you

Net edge · by timeframe

gross → net
borderline — thin edge, slippage-sensitive
break-even: the trader needs > 10.5% gross ROI/market for the copier to break even
chance a trade nets +77%
net ROI/market (all)+12.5%
timeframemarkets gross ROINET ROI gross WRNET WR net PnL (wtd)
≤7d 12 +34.7% +21.9% 83% 83% +16.6%
≤30d 13 +24.3% +12.5% 77% 77% -12.1%
≤90d 13 +24.3% +12.5% 77% 77% -12.1%
all 13 +24.3% +12.5% 77% 77% -12.1%
<b>gross</b> = as the leader traded. <b>net</b> = what WE’d keep after slippage (we enter later, price moved). Net ROI ≤ 0 → copying loses even if the leader profits.

Slippage survival

net ROI/WR at slip
turnover0.7 tr/day
realistic slip~7%
edge survives to10%
copier slippageNET ROINET WRnet PnL (wtd)
5% ideal ← realistic here +12.5% 77% -12.1%
10% +1.7% 69% -20.5%
15% -8.1% 54% -28.2%
20% -17.1% 54% -35.2%
Realistic slippage grows with turnover and leader size. If net ROI turns negative before the realistic slip — it’s a <b>trap</b>: leader profits, you lose.

Edge quality

honest signals — luck vs skill
Profit concentration
top 19% · top 2 37% thin sample
Edge freshness (90d)
90d ROI -3% 90d near zero / fading
Fragile wins
0% wins margin < slip thin sample
Flat-copyable
equal-wt +24% · $-wt -3% works when copied flat
Big bets
big-bet WR —% no data
Persistence
early +5% → late +40% edge persists early→late
Add-ons / DCA
1.2 add-ons/market flat bettor — clean entries
Win / loss size
+$412 vs −$1,487 · ×0.28 wins small, loses big
Profit factor
×0.92 loses more than it wins
Copy size
≥ $300 mirror leader trades ≥ this size to copy only main ideas

Supporting detail

25d coverage
Net worth$503
Realized−$254
Unrealized+$3
Win rate (resolved)77%
Wins / losses10 / 3
Est. fees paid−$60
Open positions1
Markets (closed)13 / 14
History coverage25d
Avg bet$901
Trades / day0.7
Drawdown100%
Kalshi-fit14%

Ledger

positions · history · trades
Positions 1 History 13 Trades
Open positions — marked to current price, like Polymarket
Marketoutcome entrynow investedvalue unrealized PnL
Will Ecuador win on 2026-06-20? Yes 84¢ 84¢ $500 $503 +$3 (+1%)
Top-25 open positions by current value. Prices in cents = market-implied probability (50¢ = 50%). Plus 3 resolved losing bets — already counted in realized PnL, so not shown here.
Closed markets — PnL by actual resolution, newest first
MarketwheninvestedPnLROI
Will Netherlands win on 2026-06-20? Jun 20 $506 +$371 +73%
Will Türkiye win on 2026-06-19? Jun 20 $508 −$500 -98%
Will Morocco win on 2026-06-19? Jun 20 $1,515 +$798 +53%
Will United States win on 2026-06-19? Jun 19 $506 +$327 +65%
Will Mexico win on 2026-06-18? Jun 19 $508 +$534 +105%
Will Canada win on 2026-06-18? Jun 19 $504 +$154 +31%
Will Switzerland win on 2026-06-18? Jun 18 $506 +$288 +57%
Will Ghana win on 2026-06-17? Jun 18 $509 +$711 +140%
Will Portugal win on 2026-06-17? Jun 17 $1,007 −$1,000 -99%
Will Argentina win on 2026-06-16? Jun 17 $1,011 +$552 +55%
Will Norway win on 2026-06-16? Jun 17 $1,006 +$229 +23%
Will France win on 2026-06-16? Jun 16 $1,002 +$159 +16%
Will the San Antonio Spurs win the 2026 NBA Finals? Jun 04 $3,020 −$2,960 -98%
Latest 50 closed markets. Resolution = Polymarket fact (redeemable/curPrice), not a timer.
Latest trades by this wallet
Marketsidepricesizewhen
Will Ecuador win on 2026-06-20? BUY Yes 84¢ $502 1h
Will Netherlands win on 2026-06-20? BUY Yes 57¢ $506 8h
Will Türkiye win on 2026-06-19? BUY Yes 47¢ $508 21h
Will Morocco win on 2026-06-19? BUY Yes 79¢ $503 25h
Will Morocco win on 2026-06-19? BUY Yes 60¢ $506 27h
Will Morocco win on 2026-06-19? BUY Yes 59¢ $506 29h
Will United States win on 2026-06-19? BUY Yes 60¢ $506 29h
Will Mexico win on 2026-06-18? BUY Yes 48¢ $508 47h
Will Canada win on 2026-06-18? BUY Yes 76¢ $504 2d
Will Switzerland win on 2026-06-18? BUY Yes 63¢ $506 2d
Will Ghana win on 2026-06-17? BUY Yes 41¢ $509 3d
Will Portugal win on 2026-06-17? BUY Yes 77¢ $1,007 3d
Will Argentina win on 2026-06-16? BUY Yes 64¢ $1,011 3d
Will Norway win on 2026-06-16? BUY Yes 81¢ $1,006 4d
Will France win on 2026-06-16? SELL Yes 80¢ $1,160 4d
Will France win on 2026-06-16? BUY Yes 68¢ $1,002 4d
Will the San Antonio Spurs win the 2026 NBA Finals? BUY Yes 47¢ $1,007 16d
Will the San Antonio Spurs win the 2026 NBA Finals? BUY Yes 25¢ $2,012 25d
From the wallet’s activity history (Polymarket /activity), latest 30.
✓ Calibrated vs Polymarket: our portfolio calc $502.98 · official $502.98 (match) · 27 history records