Wallet analysis

2026-06-18T10:01:23+00:00

trader profile + honest PnL by actual resolution and NET edge after slippage — worth copying?

0.0
score
84 0x8485…674e other 76 markets active 1h ago coverage 472d
TRAPdo not copy
✗ negative after realistic slippage✗ profit hinges on one bet (luck, not edge)✗ wins on margins thinner than slippage
Total PnL −$29 (-0%) realized −$27 · open −$2
Copy trade Watchlist View on Polymarket ↗
Gross ROI / mkt -4% what the leader earns
→−copy tax
Net edge / mkt -13% what you keep after slip
Net edge-13%after slip
Net WR0%break-even
Win rate28%21W / 54L
Whale WR0%big bets
Drawdown100%max
Avg bet$106per market
Trades / day0.4pace
Fees−$8est.
Kalshi-fit68%portable
Net worth$164now

Equity curve

realized PnL
1W 1M 3M YTD 1Y All
2 days$0
7 days−$4
14 days−$4
30 days−$4
Cards show realized PnL over calendar windows (by resolution date). The “Total PnL” chart appears for wallets we track daily.

Categories

share · PnL
other 48% −$9
world 31% −$4
economics 14% $0
politics 3% +$6
sports 3% −$4
tech 1% −$18
crypto 0% $0
culture 0% $0
Share of volume and PnL by niche (realized + unrealized). Shows where the trader actually earns — and where they bleed.

The copy-tax — evidence

gross is the leader · net is you

Net edge · by timeframe

gross → net
negative after costs — do not copy
break-even: the trader needs > 10.5% gross ROI/market for the copier to break even
chance a trade nets +0%
net ROI/market (all)-12.7%
timeframemarkets gross ROINET ROI gross WRNET WR net PnL (wtd)
≤7d 8 -3.2% -12.5% 0% 0% -10.3%
≤30d 12 -2.6% -11.9% 8% 0% -10.0%
≤90d 23 -2.5% -11.8% 13% 0% -9.7%
all 75 -3.5% -12.7% 28% 0% -9.8%
<b>gross</b> = as the leader traded. <b>net</b> = what WE’d keep after slippage (we enter later, price moved). Net ROI ≤ 0 → copying loses even if the leader profits.

Slippage survival

net ROI/WR at slip
turnover0.4 tr/day
realistic slip~5%
edge survives to0%
copier slippageNET ROINET WRnet PnL (wtd)
5% ideal ← realistic here -12.7% 0% -9.8%
10% -21.0% 0% -18.5%
15% -28.7% 0% -26.3%
20% -35.7% 0% -33.6%
Realistic slippage grows with turnover and leader size. If net ROI turns negative before the realistic slip — it’s a <b>trap</b>: leader profits, you lose.

Edge quality

honest signals — luck vs skill
Profit concentration
top 51% · top 2 87% profit hinges on 1 bet — luck, not edge
Edge freshness (90d)
90d ROI -0% 90d near zero / fading
Fragile wins
100% wins margin < slip most wins thinner than slippage → losses for you
Flat-copyable
equal-wt -3% · $-wt -0% works when copied flat
Big bets
big-bet WR 0% (≥$500) big bets weaker
Persistence
early -2% → late -4% mixed
Add-ons / DCA
1.4 add-ons/market flat bettor — clean entries
Win / loss size
+$1 vs −$1 · ×0.42 wins small, loses big
Profit factor
×0.31 loses more than it wins
Copy size
≥ $50 mirror leader trades ≥ this size to copy only main ideas

Supporting detail

472d coverage
Net worth$164
Realized−$27
Unrealized−$2
Win rate (resolved)28%
Wins / losses21 / 54
Whale WR (big bets)0%
Est. fees paid−$8
Open positions1
Markets (closed)75 / 76
History coverage472d
Avg bet$106
Trades / day0.4
Drawdown100%
Kalshi-fit68%

Ledger

positions · history · trades
Positions 1 History 75 Trades
Open positions — marked to current price, like Polymarket
Marketoutcome entrynow investedvalue unrealized PnL
US strike on Cuba by December 31? Yes 53¢ 52¢ $166 $164 −$2 (-1%)
Top-25 open positions by current value. Prices in cents = market-implied probability (50¢ = 50%).
Closed markets — PnL by actual resolution, newest first
MarketwheninvestedPnLROI
Will Trump acquire Greenland before 2027? Jun 18 $10 $0 +0%
China x Taiwan military clash before 2027? Jun 17 $151 $0 +0%
Will Benjamin Netanyahu be the next Prime Minister of Israel? Jun 16 $21 −$1 -3%
Will Avigdor Lieberman be the next Prime Minister of Israel? Jun 15 $7 −$1 -9%
Strait of Hormuz traffic returns to normal by December 31? Jun 14 $42 $0 -0%
Will United Russia (ER) gain the most seats in the next Russian parlia Jun 14 $61 −$1 -2%
Netanyahu out by June 30? Jun 14 $172 $0 +0%
Will Russia capture all of Kupiansk by June 30? Jun 13 $13 −$1 -11%
Will Donald Trump announce that the United States blockade of the Stra Jun 11 $46 $0 +1%
Israel and Indonesia normalize relations by June 30, 2026? Jun 10 $3 $0 -6%
Putin out as President of Russia by June 30? Jun 09 $3 $0 +0%
US announces new Iran agreement/ceasefire extension by July 31? Jun 09 $154 $0 +0%
Will the All India Trinamool Congress (AITC) win the most seats in the Apr 26 $103 +$6 +6%
Will Elon Musk post 1160-1199 tweets in April 2026? Apr 24 $215 −$2 -1%
Will OpenAI have the best AI model at the end of April 2026? Apr 21 $67 −$18 -27%
Will Lorenzo Musetti win the 2026 Men's French Open? Apr 14 $12 −$1 -8%
Will Joao Fonseca win the 2026 Men's French Open? Apr 13 $1,095 $0 +0%
Will Josh Shapiro win the 2028 Democratic presidential nomination? Apr 12 $92 $0 +0%
Will Jon Stewart win the 2028 Democratic presidential nomination? Apr 12 $1,987 $0 +0%
Will Japan win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Apr 11 $1,096 $0 -0%
Will the San Antonio Spurs win the 2026 NBA Finals? Apr 11 $163 +$4 +3%
Will Judy Shelton be confirmed as Fed Chair? Apr 10 $1,091 $0 +0%
Will Brazil win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Apr 10 $992 $0 +0%
Will Bitcoin reach $1,000,000 by December 31, 2025? Jan 31 $1 $0 -15%
Will Crystal Palace win on 2025-11-30? Jan 31 $5 −$5 -100%
Will the US officially declare war on Iran in 2025? Dec 20 $8 $0 +2%
Will Gretchen Whitmer win the 2028 Democratic presidential nomination? Oct 18 $5 $0 -0%
Will Galatasaray win the 2025–26 Champions League? Oct 18 $5 $0 -0%
Will Daniel Baluta be the next Mayor of Bucharest? Oct 17 $5 $0 +0%
Will the Los Angeles Rams win Super Bowl 2026? Oct 17 $5 $0 +0%
Will the Toronto Blue Jays win the 2025 World Series? Oct 14 $18 $0 +0%
Will Oscar Piastri be the 2025 Drivers Champion? Oct 14 $5 $0 -1%
Will Ethereum dip to $1,300 by December 31? Oct 13 $5 $0 +0%
Lisa Cook out as Fed Governor by December 31? Oct 12 $5 $0 +0%
Will Dwayne 'The Rock' Johnson win the 2028 US Presidential Election? Oct 12 $6 $0 -0%
Will Donald Trump visit Japan in 2025? Oct 12 $5 $0 +2%
Fed decreases interest rates by 50+ bps after October 2025 meeting? Oct 11 $5 $0 +0%
Trump out as President in 2025? Oct 11 $5 $0 -0%
Will Alphabet be the largest company in the world by market cap on Dec Oct 11 $5 $0 +1%
Will the Chicago Cubs win the 2025 World Series? Sep 21 $5 $0 +0%
Will Bitcoin reach $250,000 by December 31, 2025? Sep 21 $5 $0 -0%
Will 4 Fed rate cuts happen in 2025? Sep 19 $9 $0 -0%
Will the Minnesota Timberwolves win the 2026 NBA Finals? Sep 19 $6 $0 -0%
Will Ethereum dip to $1,000 by December 31? Sep 19 $5 $0 +0%
Will María Corina Machado win the Nobel Peace Prize in 2025? Sep 18 $5 $0 +0%
Will the Indiana Pacers win the 2026 NBA Finals? Sep 18 $5 $0 +0%
Will Trump sell 2.5k-5k Gold Cards in 2025? Sep 17 $5 $0 +0%
Will Dwayne 'The Rock' Johnson win the 2028 Democratic presidential no Sep 17 $5 $0 +0%
Will the Dallas Mavericks win the 2026 NBA Finals? Sep 17 $5 $0 +0%
Will Josh Shapiro win the 2028 US Presidential Election? Jul 27 $5 $0 +0%
Latest 50 closed markets. Resolution = Polymarket fact (redeemable/curPrice), not a timer.
Latest trades by this wallet
Marketsidepricesizewhen
US strike on Cuba by December 31? BUY Yes 53¢ $166 1h
Will Trump acquire Greenland before 2027? SELL Yes 6¢ $2 8h
Will Trump acquire Greenland before 2027? SELL Yes 6¢ $8 8h
Will Trump acquire Greenland before 2027? BUY Yes 6¢ $2 10h
Will Trump acquire Greenland before 2027? BUY Yes 6¢ $7 10h
China x Taiwan military clash before 2027? SELL No 92¢ $21 32h
China x Taiwan military clash before 2027? SELL No 92¢ $18 32h
China x Taiwan military clash before 2027? SELL No 92¢ $111 32h
China x Taiwan military clash before 2027? BUY No 92¢ $151 33h
Will Benjamin Netanyahu be the next Prime Minister of Israel? SELL Yes 30¢ $20 2d
Will Benjamin Netanyahu be the next Prime Minister of Israel? BUY Yes 31¢ $21 2d
Will Avigdor Lieberman be the next Prime Minister of Israel? SELL Yes 4¢ $6 2d
Will Avigdor Lieberman be the next Prime Minister of Israel? BUY Yes 4¢ $7 2d
Strait of Hormuz traffic returns to normal by December 31? SELL No 18¢ $17 3d
Strait of Hormuz traffic returns to normal by December 31? SELL No 18¢ $7 3d
Strait of Hormuz traffic returns to normal by December 31? SELL No 18¢ $18 3d
Strait of Hormuz traffic returns to normal by December 31? BUY No 18¢ $20 3d
Strait of Hormuz traffic returns to normal by December 31? BUY No 18¢ $22 3d
Will United Russia (ER) gain the most seats in the next Russian parlia SELL No 40¢ $2 3d
Will United Russia (ER) gain the most seats in the next Russian parlia SELL No 40¢ $58 3d
Will United Russia (ER) gain the most seats in the next Russian parlia BUY No 41¢ $58 4d
Will United Russia (ER) gain the most seats in the next Russian parlia BUY No 41¢ $2 4d
Netanyahu out by June 30? SELL Yes 1¢ $4 4d
Netanyahu out by June 30? BUY Yes 1¢ $2 4d
Netanyahu out by June 30? BUY Yes 1¢ $0 4d
Netanyahu out by June 30? BUY Yes 1¢ $2 4d
Netanyahu out by June 30? SELL No 99¢ $168 4d
Netanyahu out by June 30? BUY No 99¢ $168 4d
Will Russia capture all of Kupiansk by June 30? SELL Yes 3¢ $0 4d
Will Russia capture all of Kupiansk by June 30? SELL Yes 3¢ $5 4d
From the wallet’s activity history (Polymarket /activity), latest 30.
✓ Calibrated vs Polymarket: our portfolio calc $164.32 · official $164.32 (match) · 219 history records