Wallet analysis

2026-06-18T23:11:20+00:00

trader profile + honest PnL by actual resolution and NET edge after slippage — worth copying?

0.0
score
84 0x8482…5645 sports 303 markets active 1h ago coverage 40d
TRAPdo not copy ⚠ High turnover
✗ negative after realistic slippage✗ 90-day edge negative — edge has died! high turnover! concentrated profit (few bets)
Total PnL −$491 (-15%) realized −$486 · open −$5
Gross ROI / mkt -41% what the leader earns
−copy tax
Net edge / mkt -51% what you keep after slip
Net edge-51%after slip
Net WR20%break-even
Win rate24%68W / 220L
Drawdown100%max
Avg bet$11per market
Trades / day16.0pace
Fees−$13est.
Kalshi-fit84%portable
Net worth$464now

Equity curve

realized PnL
1W 1M 3M YTD 1Y All
2 days+$104
7 days+$59
14 days+$34
30 days−$294
Cards show realized PnL over calendar windows (by resolution date). The “Total PnL” chart appears for wallets we track daily.

Categories

share · PnL
other 53% +$81
sports 27% −$133
weather 13% −$278
finance 3% −$7
world 2% −$23
politics 2% −$53
economics 0% −$1
culture 0% +$1
Share of volume and PnL by niche (realized + unrealized). Shows where the trader actually earns — and where they bleed.

The copy-tax — evidence

gross is the leader · net is you

Net edge · by timeframe

gross → net
negative after costs — do not copy
break-even: the trader needs > 10.5% gross ROI/market for the copier to break even
chance a trade nets +20%
net ROI/market (all)-46.8%
timeframemarkets gross ROINET ROI gross WRNET WR net PnL (wtd)
≤7d 63 -23.5% -30.8% 24% 22% -1.0%
≤30d 230 -38.0% -43.9% 25% 21% -26.0%
≤90d 288 -41.2% -46.8% 24% 20% -27.1%
all 288 -41.2% -46.8% 24% 20% -27.1%
<b>gross</b> = as the leader traded. <b>net</b> = what WE’d keep after slippage (we enter later, price moved). Net ROI ≤ 0 → copying loses even if the leader profits.

Slippage survival

net ROI/WR at slip
turnover16.0 tr/day
realistic slip~9%
edge survives to0%
copier slippageNET ROINET WRnet PnL (wtd)
5% ideal ← realistic here -46.8% 20% -27.1%
10% -51.9% 18% -34.1%
15% -56.6% 16% -40.5%
20% -60.8% 12% -46.3%
Realistic slippage grows with turnover and leader size. If net ROI turns negative before the realistic slip — it’s a <b>trap</b>: leader profits, you lose.

Edge quality

honest signals — luck vs skill
Profit concentration
top 36% · top 2 49% concentrated in a few bets
Edge freshness (90d)
90d ROI -20% edge died — 90d negative
Fragile wins
15% wins margin < slip solid win margins
Flat-copyable
equal-wt -41% · $-wt -20% works when copied flat
Big bets
big-bet WR —% no data
Persistence
early -55% → late -28% mixed
Add-ons / DCA
1.7 add-ons/market adds to positions
Win / loss size
+$7 vs −$4 · ×1.75 wins bigger than losses
Profit factor
×0.54 loses more than it wins
Copy size
≥ $50 mirror leader trades ≥ this size to copy only main ideas

Supporting detail

40d coverage
Net worth$464
Realized−$486
Unrealized−$5
Win rate (resolved)24%
Wins / losses68 / 220
Est. fees paid−$13
Open positions9
Markets (closed)288 / 303
History coverage40d
Avg bet$11
Trades / day16.0
Drawdown100%
Kalshi-fit84%

Ledger

positions · history · trades
Positions 9 History 288 Trades
Open positions — marked to current price, like Polymarket
Marketoutcome entrynow investedvalue unrealized PnL
Will Portugal win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Yes $400 $397 −$3 (-1%)
Will Mexico win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Yes $60 $58 −$2 (-4%)
New York Mets vs. Philadelphia Phillies: O/U 9.5 Over 54¢ 66¢ $3 $4 +$1 (+22%)
Exact Score: Mexico 3 - 1 Korea Republic? Yes $1 $1 −$0 (-1%)
Exact Score: Mexico 1 - 0 Korea Republic? Yes 13¢ 12¢ $1 $1 −$0 (-4%)
Exact Score: Mexico 3 - 0 Korea Republic? Yes $1 $1 −$0 (-4%)
Exact Score: Mexico 2 - 1 Korea Republic? Yes 11¢ 10¢ $1 $1 −$0 (-5%)
Exact Score: Mexico 2 - 0 Korea Republic? Yes $1 $1 −$0 (-6%)
Will the US confirm that aliens exist by June 30? Yes $1 $1 −$0 (-45%)
Top-25 open positions by current value. Prices in cents = market-implied probability (50¢ = 50%). Plus 178 resolved losing bets — already counted in realized PnL, so not shown here.
Closed markets — PnL by actual resolution, newest first
MarketwheninvestedPnLROI
New York Mets vs. Philadelphia Phillies: O/U 7.5 Jun 18 $6 $0 -6%
Will Switzerland win on 2026-06-18? Jun 18 $304 +$173 +57%
Switzerland vs. Bosnia-Herzegovina: Switzerland O/U 1.5 Jun 18 $1 +$1 +67%
Switzerland leading at halftime? Jun 18 $2 −$2 -98%
Breel Embolo: 1+ goals Jun 18 $1 −$1 -98%
Toronto Blue Jays vs. Boston Red Sox: O/U 6.5 Jun 17 $55 −$55 -99%
Exact Score: Ghana 3 - 2 Panama? Jun 17 $1 −$1 -97%
Exact Score: Ghana 1 - 3 Panama? Jun 17 $1 −$1 -97%
Exact Score: Ghana 3 - 1 Panama? Jun 17 $1 −$1 -97%
Exact Score: Ghana 2 - 0 Panama? Jun 17 $1 −$1 -97%
Exact Score: Ghana 0 - 2 Panama? Jun 17 $1 −$1 -97%
Exact Score: Ghana 2 - 1 Panama? Jun 17 $1 −$1 -97%
Exact Score: Ghana 1 - 2 Panama? Jun 17 $1 −$1 -97%
Dota 2: Team Nemesis vs PlayTime (BO3) - The International South Ameri Jun 17 $1 −$1 -97%
Will Croatia win on 2026-06-17? Jun 17 $1 −$1 -97%
Spread: San Francisco Giants (-1.5) Jun 17 $1 +$2 +238%
Cristiano Ronaldo: 2+ assists Jun 17 $1 −$1 -98%
Cristiano Ronaldo: 3+ goals Jun 17 $1 −$1 -97%
Cristiano Ronaldo: 2+ goals Jun 17 $1 −$1 -100%
Bernardo Silva: 1+ shots Jun 17 $1 −$1 -100%
Cristiano Ronaldo: 1+ goals Jun 17 $1 −$1 -99%
Portugal vs. DR Congo: O/U 2.5 Jun 17 $1 −$1 -99%
Spread: Portugal (-1.5) Jun 17 $1 −$1 -99%
Dota 2: InterActive Philippines vs Ivory (BO3) - EPL World Series Sout Jun 17 $1 −$1 -98%
Kansas City Royals vs. Washington Nationals Jun 17 $1 +$1 +62%
Kansas City Royals vs. Washington Nationals: O/U 8.5 Jun 17 $1 +$2 +165%
Miami Marlins vs. Philadelphia Phillies: O/U 7.5 Jun 17 $5 +$1 +26%
San Francisco Giants vs. Atlanta Braves: O/U 9.5 Jun 16 $1 −$1 -98%
Colorado Rockies vs. Chicago Cubs: O/U 9.5 Jun 16 $1 −$1 -99%
Spread: France (-1.5) Jun 16 $1 +$1 +146%
France vs. Senegal: France O/U 1.5 Jun 16 $3 +$2 +60%
Rainbow Six Siege: Geekay Esports vs Heretics (BO1) - Europe MENA Leag Jun 16 $1 −$1 -98%
Will Iraq win on 2026-06-16? Jun 16 $1 −$1 -97%
Will Iraq vs. Norway end in a draw? Jun 16 $1 −$1 -98%
Will Senegal win on 2026-06-16? Jun 16 $1 −$1 -98%
Will France vs. Senegal end in a draw? Jun 16 $2 −$2 -98%
Counter-Strike: Team Nemesis vs Infinite (BO3) - NODWIN Clutch Series Jun 16 $1 −$1 -98%
Will WTI Crude Oil (WTI) hit (LOW) $65 in June? Jun 16 $3 +$1 +33%
Counter-Strike: Natus Vincere vs G2 (BO3) - IEM Cologne Major Stage 3 Jun 15 $9 −$9 -99%
LoL: Top Esports vs Bilibili Gaming (BO5) - LPL Playoffs Jun 14 $16 $0 -2%
Dota 2: Power Rangers vs Noir Esports (BO3) - European Pro League Grou Jun 14 $2 +$1 +25%
LoL: Top Esports vs Bilibili Gaming - Game 2 Winner Jun 14 $38 +$2 +6%
LoL: Team WE vs Bilibili Gaming (BO5) - LPL Playoffs Jun 13 $1 +$1 +146%
Mobile Legends Bang Bang: Geek Fam ID vs Bigetron by Vitality (BO7) - Jun 13 $2 −$2 -98%
Counter-Strike: Team Falcons vs Monte (BO3) - IEM Cologne Major Stage Jun 13 $2 −$2 -98%
Counter-Strike: Entropy vs Gatorian (BO3) - ROG Journey Playoffs Jun 13 $1 −$1 -98%
Counter-Strike: Metizport vs Atputies (BO3) - ROG Journey Playoffs Jun 13 $1 −$1 -97%
Counter-Strike: Sashi Academy vs Washed (BO3) - Dust2.dk Ligaen Group Jun 13 $1 −$1 -97%
Will Portugal win on 2026-06-17? Jun 13 $50 −$1 -3%
Dota 2: Estar Backs vs Gior Dota Team (BO3) - The International South Jun 12 $1 −$1 -98%
Latest 50 closed markets. Resolution = Polymarket fact (redeemable/curPrice), not a timer.
Latest trades by this wallet
Marketsidepricesizewhen
Exact Score: Mexico 3 - 1 Korea Republic? BUY Yes $1 40m
Exact Score: Mexico 3 - 0 Korea Republic? BUY Yes $1 40m
Exact Score: Mexico 2 - 0 Korea Republic? BUY Yes $1 41m
New York Mets vs. Philadelphia Phillies: O/U 9.5 BUY Over 54¢ $1 41m
New York Mets vs. Philadelphia Phillies: O/U 7.5 SELL Over 69¢ $6 42m
Exact Score: Mexico 2 - 1 Korea Republic? BUY Yes 11¢ $1 42m
Exact Score: Mexico 1 - 0 Korea Republic? BUY Yes 13¢ $1 43m
New York Mets vs. Philadelphia Phillies: O/U 7.5 BUY Over 72¢ $6 54m
New York Mets vs. Philadelphia Phillies: O/U 9.5 BUY Over 54¢ $2 54m
Canada vs. Qatar: O/U 2.5 AND Will Canada win on 2026-06-18? BUY 37¢ $6 1h
Canada vs. Qatar: O/U 3.5 AND Will Canada win on 2026-06-18? BUY 59¢ $2 1h
Will Mexico win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? BUY Yes $62 1h
Will Portugal win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? BUY Yes $411 1h
Will Switzerland win on 2026-06-18? BUY Yes 63¢ $303 4h
Will Portugal win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? SELL Yes $315 4h
Switzerland leading at halftime? AND Switzerland to win the second hal BUY 30¢ $1 4h
Switzerland leading at halftime? BUY Yes 47¢ $2 4h
Breel Embolo: 1+ goals BUY Yes 42¢ $1 4h
Switzerland vs. Bosnia-Herzegovina: Switzerland O/U 1.5 BUY Over 59¢ $1 4h
Will Switzerland win on 2026-06-18? BUY Yes 63¢ $1 4h
Toronto Blue Jays vs. Boston Red Sox: O/U 6.5 BUY Over 80¢ $40 24h
Exact Score: Ghana 3 - 2 Panama? BUY Yes $1 24h
Exact Score: Ghana 1 - 3 Panama? BUY Yes $1 24h
Exact Score: Ghana 3 - 1 Panama? BUY Yes $1 24h
Exact Score: Ghana 2 - 0 Panama? BUY Yes $1 24h
Exact Score: Ghana 0 - 2 Panama? BUY Yes $1 24h
Exact Score: Ghana 2 - 1 Panama? BUY Yes $1 24h
Exact Score: Ghana 1 - 2 Panama? BUY Yes $1 24h
Will Mexico win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? SELL Yes $53 24h
Toronto Blue Jays vs. Boston Red Sox: O/U 6.5 BUY Over 79¢ $5 24h
From the wallet’s activity history (Polymarket /activity), latest 30.
Vs Polymarket: our portfolio calc $464.35 · official $472.57 · 691 history records