Wallet analysis

2026-06-17T03:55:00+00:00

trader profile + honest PnL by actual resolution and NET edge after slippage — worth copying?

0.0
score
84 0x8480…157a other 130 markets active 1h ago coverage 99d
TRAPdo not copy
✗ negative after realistic slippage✗ wins on margins thinner than slippage
Total PnL −$70 (-0%) realized −$70 · open +$0
Gross ROI / mkt -1% what the leader earns
−copy tax
Net edge / mkt -14% what you keep after slip
Net edge-14%after slip
Net WR0%break-even
Win rate12%15W / 114L
Drawdown100%max
Avg bet$147per market
Trades / day4.4pace
Fees−$3est.
Kalshi-fit74%portable
Net worth$47now

Equity curve

realized PnL
1W 1M 3M YTD 1Y All
2 days−$7
7 days−$21
14 days−$33
30 days−$45
Cards show realized PnL over calendar windows (by resolution date). The “Total PnL” chart appears for wallets we track daily.

Categories

share · PnL
other 27% −$25
politics 23% −$18
sports 19% −$16
crypto 13% −$11
economics 5% −$4
world 5% −$2
culture 4% −$6
finance 3% −$2
tech 1% $0
Share of volume and PnL by niche (realized + unrealized). Shows where the trader actually earns — and where they bleed.

The copy-tax — evidence

gross is the leader · net is you

Net edge · by timeframe

gross → net
negative after costs — do not copy
break-even: the trader needs > 10.5% gross ROI/market for the copier to break even
chance a trade nets +0%
net ROI/market (all)-10.2%
timeframemarkets gross ROINET ROI gross WRNET WR net PnL (wtd)
≤7d 21 -2.2% -11.6% 14% 0% -10.3%
≤30d 62 -1.3% -10.7% 11% 0% -10.2%
≤90d 113 -0.8% -10.3% 11% 0% -10.0%
all 129 -0.7% -10.2% 12% 0% -9.9%
<b>gross</b> = as the leader traded. <b>net</b> = what WE’d keep after slippage (we enter later, price moved). Net ROI ≤ 0 → copying loses even if the leader profits.

Slippage survival

net ROI/WR at slip
turnover4.4 tr/day
realistic slip~7%
edge survives to0%
copier slippageNET ROINET WRnet PnL (wtd)
5% ideal ← realistic here -10.2% 0% -9.9%
10% -18.8% 0% -18.5%
15% -26.6% 0% -26.4%
20% -33.8% 0% -33.6%
Realistic slippage grows with turnover and leader size. If net ROI turns negative before the realistic slip — it’s a <b>trap</b>: leader profits, you lose.

Edge quality

honest signals — luck vs skill
Profit concentration
top 31% · top 2 50% broad-based profit
Edge freshness (90d)
90d ROI -0% 90d near zero / fading
Fragile wins
100% wins margin < slip most wins thinner than slippage → losses for you
Flat-copyable
equal-wt -1% · $-wt -0% works when copied flat
Big bets
big-bet WR —% no data
Persistence
early -0% → late -1% mixed
Add-ons / DCA
1.8 add-ons/market adds to positions
Win / loss size
+$0 vs −$1 · ×0.43 wins small, loses big
Profit factor
×0.06 loses more than it wins
Copy size
≥ $50 mirror leader trades ≥ this size to copy only main ideas

Supporting detail

99d coverage
Net worth$47
Realized−$70
Unrealized+$0
Win rate (resolved)12%
Wins / losses15 / 114
Est. fees paid−$3
Open positions1
Markets (closed)129 / 130
History coverage99d
Avg bet$147
Trades / day4.4
Drawdown100%
Kalshi-fit74%

Ledger

positions · history · trades
Positions 1 History 129 Trades
Open positions — marked to current price, like Polymarket
Marketoutcome entrynow investedvalue unrealized PnL
Will Reza Pahlavi be head of state in Iran end of 2026? No 97¢ 97¢ $47 $47 −$0 (-0%)
Top-25 open positions by current value. Prices in cents = market-implied probability (50¢ = 50%).
Closed markets — PnL by actual resolution, newest first
MarketwheninvestedPnLROI
Will María Corina Machado be the leader of Venezuela end of 2026? Jun 17 $153 −$1 -1%
Will Ron DeSantis win the 2028 Republican presidential nomination? Jun 16 $587 −$1 -0%
Will the Denver Broncos win the 2027 NFL league championship? Jun 16 $159 $0 -0%
Will Bitcoin reach $170,000 by December 31, 2026? Jun 16 $103 −$2 -2%
Will Tucker Carlson win the 2028 Republican presidential nomination? Jun 15 $144 −$1 -1%
Will 2 Fed rate cuts happen in 2026? Jun 15 $112 −$1 -0%
Will Ferrari be the 2026 F1 Constructors' Champion? Jun 15 $90 −$1 -1%
Will the US confirm that aliens exist by September 30? Jun 15 $54 −$1 -1%
Will Josh Shapiro win the 2028 US Presidential Election? Jun 14 $274 $0 -0%
Will Alexandria Ocasio-Cortez win the 2028 US Presidential Election? Jun 14 $267 −$1 -0%
Will there be no Head of State in Iran end of 2026? Jun 14 $20 $0 +1%
Will Igor Thiago be the top goalscorer at the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Jun 14 $55 $0 +0%
Will Lewis Hamilton be the 2026 F1 Drivers' Champion? Jun 13 $48 $0 -1%
Will Miami Heat win the 2027 NBA Finals? Jun 13 $62 −$5 -8%
Will Falcons win IEM Cologne Major 2026? Jun 13 $114 −$2 -2%
Will Wes Streeting be the next Prime Minister of the United Kingdom in Jun 12 $56 −$1 -1%
SpaceX IPO closing market cap above $1.2T? Jun 12 $50 $0 +1%
Will Crude Oil (CL) hit (HIGH) $120 by end of June? Jun 11 $42 −$1 -2%
Will Crude Oil (CL) hit (LOW) $70 by end of June? Jun 11 $65 −$1 -1%
Will Roberto Sánchez Palomino win the 2026 Peruvian presidential elect Jun 10 $102 $0 -0%
Will Mike Maignan record the most clean sheets at the 2026 FIFA World Jun 10 $10 −$3 -27%
Will Donald Trump win the Nobel Peace Prize in 2026? Jun 10 $58 −$1 -2%
Will Crude Oil (CL) hit (HIGH) $150 by end of June? Jun 09 $64 $0 +0%
Will Abbas Araghchi be head of state in Iran end of 2026? Jun 09 $11 $0 -0%
Will The Super Mario Galaxy Movie be the top grossing movie of 2026? Jun 07 $20 $0 -2%
Will Ed Miliband be the next Prime Minister of the United Kingdom in 2 Jun 06 $105 −$1 -1%
Will OpenAI have the best AI model at the end of June 2026? Jun 06 $97 −$1 -1%
Will Dominique de Villepin win the 2027 French presidential election? Jun 06 $149 −$1 -1%
Will New York Knicks win the 2027 NBA Finals? Jun 05 $65 −$2 -3%
Will WTI Crude Oil (WTI) hit (HIGH) $140 in June? Jun 05 $45 $0 -1%
Will Bitcoin reach $150,000 by December 31, 2026? Jun 05 $40 −$1 -2%
SpaceX IPO closing market cap above $3.4T? Jun 04 $14 $0 +2%
Will Apple be the largest company in the world by market cap on June 3 Jun 04 $54 $0 +0%
Will Sweden reach the Semifinals at the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Jun 03 $63 −$3 -5%
Will Avigdor Lieberman be the next Prime Minister of Israel? Jun 03 $49 $0 -0%
Will Los Angeles Lakers win the 2027 NBA Finals? Jun 03 $41 −$1 -3%
Will Lautaro Martinez be the top goalscorer at the 2026 FIFA World Cup Jun 03 $46 $0 -0%
Will Gabriel Attal win the 2027 French presidential election? Jun 02 $96 $0 -0%
Will Jon Ossoff win the 2028 Democratic presidential nomination? Jun 02 $96 −$1 -1%
Will the Chicago Bears win the 2027 NFL league championship? Jun 02 $51 $0 -0%
Will Max Verstappen be the 2026 F1 Drivers' Champion? May 31 $234 −$1 -1%
Will Jon Ossoff win the 2028 US Presidential Election? May 31 $113 $0 -0%
Will Thomas Massie win the 2028 Republican presidential nomination? May 31 $47 $0 -0%
Will Fernando Haddad win the 2026 Brazilian presidential election? May 30 $63 $0 -0%
Will Paloma Valencia win the 2026 Colombian presidential election? May 30 $110 $0 -0%
Will Mohammad-Bagher Ghalibaf be head of state in Iran end of 2026? May 29 $62 −$1 -1%
Will Lando Norris be the 2026 F1 Drivers' Champion? May 29 $110 $0 -0%
Will the Atlanta Braves win the 2026 World Series? May 28 $51 −$1 -1%
Will Novak Djokovic win the 2026 Men's French Open? May 28 $50 $0 -0%
Will there be no change in Fed interest rates after the June 2026 meet May 28 $209 −$1 -0%
Latest 50 closed markets. Resolution = Polymarket fact (redeemable/curPrice), not a timer.
Latest trades by this wallet
Marketsidepricesizewhen
Will Reza Pahlavi be head of state in Iran end of 2026? BUY No 97¢ $47 55m
Will María Corina Machado be the leader of Venezuela end of 2026? SELL No 96¢ $52 1h
Will María Corina Machado be the leader of Venezuela end of 2026? BUY No 97¢ $52 9h
Will Ron DeSantis win the 2028 Republican presidential nomination? SELL No 97¢ $51 10h
Will Ron DeSantis win the 2028 Republican presidential nomination? BUY No 97¢ $51 17h
Will the Denver Broncos win the 2027 NFL league championship? SELL No 97¢ $57 17h
Will the Denver Broncos win the 2027 NFL league championship? BUY No 97¢ $58 21h
Will Bitcoin reach $170,000 by December 31, 2026? SELL No 96¢ $50 22h
Will Bitcoin reach $170,000 by December 31, 2026? BUY No 98¢ $50 29h
Will Tucker Carlson win the 2028 Republican presidential nomination? SELL No 93¢ $59 29h
Will Tucker Carlson win the 2028 Republican presidential nomination? BUY No 93¢ $60 36h
Will 2 Fed rate cuts happen in 2026? SELL No 96¢ $56 36h
Will 2 Fed rate cuts happen in 2026? BUY No 96¢ $56 42h
Will Ferrari be the 2026 F1 Constructors' Champion? SELL No 90¢ $46 43h
Will Ferrari be the 2026 F1 Constructors' Champion? BUY No 91¢ $46 2d
Will the US confirm that aliens exist by September 30? SELL No 95¢ $53 2d
Will the US confirm that aliens exist by September 30? BUY No 96¢ $54 2d
Will Josh Shapiro win the 2028 US Presidential Election? SELL No 97¢ $51 2d
Will Josh Shapiro win the 2028 US Presidential Election? BUY No 97¢ $51 2d
Will Alexandria Ocasio-Cortez win the 2028 US Presidential Election? SELL No 94¢ $47 2d
Will Alexandria Ocasio-Cortez win the 2028 US Presidential Election? BUY No 94¢ $14 2d
Will Alexandria Ocasio-Cortez win the 2028 US Presidential Election? BUY No 94¢ $33 2d
Will there be no Head of State in Iran end of 2026? SELL No 97¢ $20 2d
Will there be no Head of State in Iran end of 2026? BUY No 97¢ $10 3d
Will there be no Head of State in Iran end of 2026? BUY No 97¢ $10 3d
Will Igor Thiago be the top goalscorer at the 2026 FIFA World Cup? SELL No 98¢ $55 3d
Will Igor Thiago be the top goalscorer at the 2026 FIFA World Cup? BUY No 98¢ $55 3d
Will Lewis Hamilton be the 2026 F1 Drivers' Champion? SELL No 96¢ $48 3d
Will Lewis Hamilton be the 2026 F1 Drivers' Champion? BUY No 97¢ $48 3d
Will Miami Heat win the 2027 NBA Finals? SELL No 90¢ $57 3d
From the wallet’s activity history (Polymarket /activity), latest 30.
Calibrated vs Polymarket: our portfolio calc $47.09 · official $47.09 (match) · 474 history records