Wallet analysis

2026-06-27T14:20:31+00:00

trader profile + honest PnL by actual resolution and NET edge after slippage — worth copying?

0.0
score
84 0x847f…3eb6 other 33 markets active 0h ago coverage 11d
TRAPdo not copy Fading edge⚠ High turnover⚠ Small sample
✗ negative after realistic slippage! high turnover! concentrated profit (few bets)
Total PnL +$5 (+1%) realized +$9 · open −$4
Copy trade Watchlist View on Polymarket ↗
Gross ROI / mkt -3% what the leader earns
→−copy tax
Net edge / mkt -19% what you keep after slip
Net edge-19%after slip
Net WR45%break-even
Win rate55%16W / 13L
Drawdown100%max
Avg bet$25per market
Trades / day10.4pace
Fees−$5est.
Kalshi-fit27%portable
Net worth$106now

Equity curve

realized PnL
1W 1M 3M YTD 1Y All
2 days−$49
7 days−$35
14 days−$8
30 days−$8
Cards show realized PnL over calendar windows (by resolution date). The “Total PnL” chart appears for wallets we track daily.

Categories

share · PnL
other 75% −$64
sports 20% +$47
world 5% +$5
Share of volume and PnL by niche (realized + unrealized). Shows where the trader actually earns — and where they bleed.

The copy-tax — evidence

gross is the leader · net is you

Net edge · by timeframe

gross → net
negative after costs — do not copy
break-even: the trader needs > 10.5% gross ROI/market for the copier to break even
chance a trade nets +45%
net ROI/market (all)-12.3%
timeframemarkets gross ROINET ROI gross WRNET WR net PnL (wtd)
≤7d 20 -11.8% -20.2% 45% 40% -14.8%
≤30d 29 -3.1% -12.3% 55% 45% -10.5%
≤90d 29 -3.1% -12.3% 55% 45% -10.5%
all 29 -3.1% -12.3% 55% 45% -10.5%
<b>gross</b> = as the leader traded. <b>net</b> = what WE’d keep after slippage (we enter later, price moved). Net ROI ≤ 0 → copying loses even if the leader profits.

Slippage survival

net ROI/WR at slip
turnover10.4 tr/day
realistic slip~9%
edge survives to0%
copier slippageNET ROINET WRnet PnL (wtd)
5% ideal ← realistic here -12.3% 45% -10.5%
10% -20.7% 21% -19.1%
15% -28.4% 14% -26.9%
20% -35.4% 7% -34.1%
Realistic slippage grows with turnover and leader size. If net ROI turns negative before the realistic slip — it’s a <b>trap</b>: leader profits, you lose.

Edge quality

honest signals — luck vs skill
Profit concentration
top 45% · top 2 59% concentrated in a few bets
Edge freshness (90d)
90d ROI -1% 90d near zero / fading
Fragile wins
19% wins margin < slip solid win margins
Flat-copyable
equal-wt -3% · $-wt -1% works when copied flat
Big bets
big-bet WR —% no data
Persistence
early +9% → late -15% edge faded
Add-ons / DCA
1.8 add-ons/market adds to positions
Win / loss size
+$7 vs −$10 · ×0.76 wins small, loses big
Profit factor
×0.94 loses more than it wins
Copy size
≥ $50 mirror leader trades ≥ this size to copy only main ideas

Supporting detail

11d coverage
Net worth$106
Realized+$9
Unrealized−$4
Win rate (resolved)55%
Wins / losses16 / 13
Est. fees paid−$5
Open positions4
Markets (closed)29 / 33
History coverage11d
Avg bet$25
Trades / day10.4
Drawdown100%
Kalshi-fit27%

Ledger

positions · history · trades
Positions 4 History 29 Trades
Open positions — marked to current price, like Polymarket
Marketoutcome entrynow investedvalue unrealized PnL
Will Elon Musk post 40-64 tweets from June 25 to June 27, 2026? Yes 80¢ 76¢ $90 $86 −$4 (-4%)
Will the US confirm that aliens exist before 2027? No 91¢ 90¢ $10 $10 −$0 (-1%)
Will Elon Musk post 240-259 tweets from June 23 to June 30, 2026? Yes 34¢ 34¢ $7 $7 +$0 (+1%)
Will Elon Musk post 260-279 tweets from June 23 to June 30, 2026? Yes 28¢ 30¢ $3 $3 +$0 (+5%)
Top-25 open positions by current value. Prices in cents = market-implied probability (50¢ = 50%).
Closed markets — PnL by actual resolution, newest first
MarketwheninvestedPnLROI
Will Elon Musk post 65-89 tweets from June 25 to June 27, 2026? Jun 26 $30 −$9 -30%
Will Elon Musk post 240-259 tweets from June 19 to June 26, 2026? Jun 26 $15 +$4 +25%
Will Elon Musk post 90-114 tweets from June 22 to June 24, 2026? Jun 26 $29 −$29 -100%
Will Germany win on 2026-06-25? Jun 26 $10 −$10 -100%
Will Elon Musk post 260-279 tweets from June 19 to June 26, 2026? Jun 25 $92 −$5 -5%
Will Morocco vs. Haiti end in a draw? Jun 24 $36 −$26 -72%
Will Elon Musk post 180-199 tweets from June 19 to June 26, 2026? Jun 24 $30 −$30 -100%
Will England vs. Ghana end in a draw? Jun 23 $73 +$52 +71%
Will Elon Musk post 180-199 tweets from June 16 to June 23, 2026? Jun 23 $68 −$6 -8%
Will Elon Musk post 200-219 tweets from June 19 to June 26, 2026? Jun 23 $30 +$4 +15%
Israel x Hezbollah permanent peace deal by July 31, 2026? Jun 22 $10 $0 +3%
Will Elon Musk post 40-64 tweets from June 20 to June 22, 2026? Jun 22 $26 +$7 +27%
Will Elon Musk post 160-179 tweets from June 16 to June 23, 2026? Jun 22 $31 $0 -0%
Strait of Hormuz traffic returns to normal by end of June? Jun 22 $10 +$2 +16%
Will Belgium vs. IR Iran end in a draw? Jun 21 $20 +$7 +37%
Will Spain win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Jun 21 $10 $0 -2%
Will Elon Musk post 200-219 tweets from June 16 to June 23, 2026? Jun 21 $37 +$7 +20%
Will Brazil win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Jun 21 $10 −$2 -17%
Will Portugal win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Jun 21 $10 −$4 -36%
Israel x Iran permanent peace deal by July 31, 2026? Jun 21 $10 +$2 +21%
Israel x Iran permanent peace deal by June 30, 2026? Jun 20 $10 +$1 +15%
Will Elon Musk post 180-199 tweets from June 12 to June 19, 2026? Jun 19 $22 +$4 +20%
Will Elon Musk post 200-219 tweets from June 12 to June 19, 2026? Jun 19 $12 $0 -3%
Will Switzerland vs. Bosnia and Herzegovina end in a draw? Jun 18 $10 −$3 -32%
Will Czechia vs. South Africa end in a draw? Jun 18 $23 +$17 +72%
Will England win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Jun 17 $10 +$1 +9%
Will Harry Kane be the top goalscorer at the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Jun 17 $10 +$2 +15%
Will France win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Jun 16 $10 $0 +2%
Will France win on 2026-06-16? Jun 16 $11 +$5 +48%
Latest 50 closed markets. Resolution = Polymarket fact (redeemable/curPrice), not a timer.
Latest trades by this wallet
Marketsidepricesizewhen
Will Elon Musk post 40-64 tweets from June 25 to June 27, 2026? BUY Yes 74¢ $30 16m
Will Elon Musk post 40-64 tweets from June 25 to June 27, 2026? BUY Yes 81¢ $2 41m
Will Elon Musk post 240-259 tweets from June 23 to June 30, 2026? BUY Yes 34¢ $3 51m
Will Elon Musk post 240-259 tweets from June 23 to June 30, 2026? BUY Yes 34¢ $1 1h
Will Elon Musk post 240-259 tweets from June 23 to June 30, 2026? BUY Yes 34¢ $3 1h
Will Elon Musk post 40-64 tweets from June 25 to June 27, 2026? BUY Yes 81¢ $28 1h
Will Elon Musk post 260-279 tweets from June 23 to June 30, 2026? BUY Yes 28¢ $3 1h
Will Elon Musk post 40-64 tweets from June 25 to June 27, 2026? BUY Yes 86¢ $30 1h
Will Elon Musk post 65-89 tweets from June 25 to June 27, 2026? SELL Yes 20¢ $7 22h
Will Elon Musk post 65-89 tweets from June 25 to June 27, 2026? SELL Yes 20¢ $2 22h
Will Elon Musk post 65-89 tweets from June 25 to June 27, 2026? SELL Yes 20¢ $12 22h
Will Elon Musk post 240-259 tweets from June 19 to June 26, 2026? SELL Yes 90¢ $19 24h
Will Elon Musk post 65-89 tweets from June 25 to June 27, 2026? BUY Yes 28¢ $26 27h
Will Elon Musk post 65-89 tweets from June 25 to June 27, 2026? BUY Yes 28¢ $4 27h
Will Elon Musk post 240-259 tweets from June 19 to June 26, 2026? BUY Yes 72¢ $15 32h
Will Elon Musk post 260-279 tweets from June 19 to June 26, 2026? SELL Yes 25¢ $37 38h
Will Elon Musk post 260-279 tweets from June 19 to June 26, 2026? BUY Yes 20¢ $31 39h
Will Germany win on 2026-06-25? BUY Yes 46¢ $10 41h
Will Elon Musk post 260-279 tweets from June 19 to June 26, 2026? SELL Yes 28¢ $3 47h
Will Elon Musk post 260-279 tweets from June 19 to June 26, 2026? SELL Yes 28¢ $28 47h
Will Elon Musk post 260-279 tweets from June 19 to June 26, 2026? SELL Yes 28¢ $5 47h
Will Elon Musk post 260-279 tweets from June 19 to June 26, 2026? BUY Yes 24¢ $30 2d
Will Morocco vs. Haiti end in a draw? SELL Yes 0¢ $0 2d
Will Morocco vs. Haiti end in a draw? BUY Yes 12¢ $5 2d
Will Morocco vs. Haiti end in a draw? SELL Yes 10¢ $10 2d
Will Morocco vs. Haiti end in a draw? BUY Yes 29¢ $31 2d
Will Elon Musk post 180-199 tweets from June 19 to June 26, 2026? SELL Yes 0¢ $0 2d
Will Elon Musk post 260-279 tweets from June 19 to June 26, 2026? SELL Yes 13¢ $14 2d
Will Elon Musk post 260-279 tweets from June 19 to June 26, 2026? BUY Yes 27¢ $31 3d
Will Elon Musk post 90-114 tweets from June 22 to June 24, 2026? BUY No 38¢ $6 3d
From the wallet’s activity history (Polymarket /activity), latest 30.
✓ Calibrated vs Polymarket: our portfolio calc $106.19 · official $106.19 (match) · 124 history records