Wallet analysis

2026-06-23T08:14:13+00:00

trader profile + honest PnL by actual resolution and NET edge after slippage — worth copying?

2.0
score
84 0x847f…a3e1 other 128 markets active 2h ago coverage 133d
TRAPdo not copy
✗ negative after realistic slippage
Total PnL −$19 (-0%) realized −$19 · open +$0
Copy trade Watchlist View on Polymarket ↗
Gross ROI / mkt -1% what the leader earns
→−copy tax
Net edge / mkt -10% what you keep after slip
Net edge-10%after slip
Net WR6%break-even
Win rate9%12W / 115L
Whale WR0%big bets
Drawdown100%max
Avg bet$263per market
Trades / day2.3pace
Fees−$0est.
Kalshi-fit62%portable
Net worth$46now

Equity curve

realized PnL
1W 1M 3M YTD 1Y All
2 days$0
7 days−$0
14 days−$0
30 days−$2
Cards show realized PnL over calendar windows (by resolution date). The “Total PnL” chart appears for wallets we track daily.

Categories

share · PnL
other 52% −$49
politics 26% −$11
sports 10% +$42
crypto 6% −$1
tech 3% −$1
world 2% −$1
economics 1% $0
finance 0% $0
Share of volume and PnL by niche (realized + unrealized). Shows where the trader actually earns — and where they bleed.

The copy-tax — evidence

gross is the leader · net is you

Net edge · by timeframe

gross → net
negative after costs — do not copy
break-even: the trader needs > 10.5% gross ROI/market for the copier to break even
chance a trade nets +6%
net ROI/market (all)-10.2%
timeframemarkets gross ROINET ROI gross WRNET WR net PnL (wtd)
≤7d 3 -0.1% -9.6% 0% 0% -9.6%
≤30d 13 -0.2% -9.7% 0% 0% -9.7%
≤90d 85 -0.1% -9.6% 2% 0% -9.6%
all 127 -0.8% -10.2% 9% 6% -9.6%
<b>gross</b> = as the leader traded. <b>net</b> = what WE’d keep after slippage (we enter later, price moved). Net ROI ≤ 0 → copying loses even if the leader profits.

Slippage survival

net ROI/WR at slip
turnover2.3 tr/day
realistic slip~5%
edge survives to0%
copier slippageNET ROINET WRnet PnL (wtd)
5% ideal ← realistic here -10.2% 6% -9.6%
10% -18.8% 6% -18.2%
15% -26.7% 4% -26.1%
20% -33.9% 3% -33.4%
Realistic slippage grows with turnover and leader size. If net ROI turns negative before the realistic slip — it’s a <b>trap</b>: leader profits, you lose.

Edge quality

honest signals — luck vs skill
Profit concentration
top 21% · top 2 38% broad-based profit
Edge freshness (90d)
90d ROI -0% 90d near zero / fading
Fragile wins
33% wins margin < slip solid win margins
Flat-copyable
equal-wt -1% · $-wt -0% works when copied flat
Big bets
big-bet WR 0% (≥$500) big bets weaker
Persistence
early -1% → late -0% mixed
Add-ons / DCA
1.3 add-ons/market flat bettor — clean entries
Win / loss size
+$7 vs −$1 · ×7.73 wins bigger than losses
Profit factor
×0.81 loses more than it wins
Copy size
≥ $50 mirror leader trades ≥ this size to copy only main ideas

Supporting detail

133d coverage
Net worth$46
Realized−$19
Unrealized+$0
Win rate (resolved)9%
Wins / losses12 / 115
Whale WR (big bets)0%
Est. fees paid−$0
Open positions1
Markets (closed)127 / 128
History coverage133d
Avg bet$263
Trades / day2.3
Drawdown100%
Kalshi-fit62%

Ledger

positions · history · trades
Positions 1 History 127 Trades
Open positions — marked to current price, like Polymarket
Marketoutcome entrynow investedvalue unrealized PnL
Will Audi be the 2026 F1 Constructors' Champion? No 100¢ 100¢ $46 $46 −$0 (-0%)
Top-25 open positions by current value. Prices in cents = market-implied probability (50¢ = 50%). Plus 6 resolved losing bets — already counted in realized PnL, so not shown here.
Closed markets — PnL by actual resolution, newest first
MarketwheninvestedPnLROI
Will Butch Ware win the California Governor Election in 2026? Jun 22 $30 $0 -0%
Will Matt Mahan win the California Governor Election in 2026? Jun 21 $30 $0 -0%
Will Rand Paul win the 2028 Republican presidential nomination? Jun 19 $40 $0 -0%
Will Eduardo Leite win the 2026 Brazilian presidential election? Jun 14 $46 $0 -0%
Will Hunter Biden win the 2028 Democratic presidential nomination? Jun 03 $43 $0 -0%
Will the Indianapolis Colts win the 2027 NFL league championship? Jun 02 $41 $0 -0%
Will John Thune win the 2028 Republican presidential nomination? Jun 01 $46 $0 -0%
Will Elise Stefanik win the 2028 Republican presidential nomination? May 31 $35 $0 -0%
Will Aldo Rebelo win the 2026 Brazilian presidential election? May 28 $275 $0 -0%
Will Antonio Villaraigosa win the California Governor Election in 2026 May 28 $258 $0 -0%
Will Nikki Haley win the 2028 Republican presidential nomination? May 27 $264 $0 -0%
Will Ségolène Royal win the 2027 French presidential election? May 25 $211 $0 -0%
Will Hillary Clinton win the 2028 Democratic presidential nomination? May 24 $231 $0 -0%
Will Paraguay win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? May 24 $512 −$1 -0%
Will Robert F. Kennedy Jr. win the 2028 Republican presidential nomina May 23 $471 −$1 -0%
Will Élisabeth Borne win the 2027 French presidential election? May 22 $485 −$1 -0%
Will Michelle Obama win the 2028 US Presidential Election? May 21 $291 −$1 -0%
Will Han Dong-hoon win the 2026 Seoul Mayoral Election May 19 $205 $0 -0%
Will Meta have the best AI model at the end of May 2026? May 19 $207 $0 -0%
Will Katie Britt win the 2028 Republican presidential nomination? May 18 $209 $0 -0%
Will Haiti win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? May 18 $514 −$1 -0%
Will Tunisia win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? May 18 $467 $0 -0%
Will Bitcoin reach $120,000 in May? May 17 $255 $0 -0%
Will Park Yong-jin win the 2026 Seoul Mayoral Election May 16 $268 $0 -0%
Will Germany win Eurovision 2026? May 15 $220 $0 -0%
Will Ivanka Trump win the 2028 Republican presidential nomination? May 14 $285 $0 -0%
Will Jair Bolsonaro win the 2026 Brazilian presidential election? May 12 $212 $0 -0%
Will Beto O’Rourke win the 2028 Democratic presidential nomination? May 11 $269 $0 -0%
Will Austria win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? May 10 $496 −$1 -0%
Will Pete Hegseth win the 2028 Republican presidential nomination? May 10 $285 $0 -0%
MegaETH market cap (FDV) >$6B one day after launch? May 09 $15 $0 +1%
Will Qatar win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Apr 20 $748 −$1 -0%
Will Alibaba have the best AI model at the end of April 2026? Apr 19 $253 $0 -0%
Will Kim Kardashian win the 2028 Republican presidential nomination? Apr 18 $254 $0 -0%
Will Sarah Huckabee Sanders win the 2028 Republican presidential nomin Apr 18 $265 $0 -0%
Will Ecuador win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Apr 18 $244 $0 -0%
Will Vivek Ramaswamy win the 2028 Republican presidential nomination? Apr 17 $217 $0 -0%
Will Ghana win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Apr 17 $714 −$1 -0%
Will Z.ai have the best AI model at the end of April 2026? Apr 17 $203 $0 -0%
Will Saudi Arabia win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Apr 17 $957 −$1 -0%
Will Belgium win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Apr 16 $536 −$1 -0%
Will Norway win Eurovision 2026? Apr 16 $280 $0 -0%
Will Alpine be the 2026 F1 Constructors' Champion? Apr 16 $244 $0 -0%
Will Carlos Sainz Jr. be the 2026 F1 Drivers' Champion? Apr 15 $484 $0 -0%
Will LeBron James win the 2028 US Presidential Election? Apr 15 $222 $0 -0%
Will Sweden win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Apr 15 $268 $0 -0%
Will Cho Kuk win the 2026 Seoul Mayoral Election Apr 14 $534 −$1 -0%
Will Ivory Coast win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Apr 14 $461 $0 -0%
Will Bitcoin reach $110,000 in April? Apr 13 $274 $0 -0%
Will Eduardo Bolsonaro win the 2026 Brazilian presidential election? Apr 13 $213 $0 -0%
Latest 50 closed markets. Resolution = Polymarket fact (redeemable/curPrice), not a timer.
Latest trades by this wallet
Marketsidepricesizewhen
Will Audi be the 2026 F1 Constructors' Champion? BUY No 100¢ $46 1h
Will Butch Ware win the California Governor Election in 2026? SELL No 100¢ $30 13h
Will Butch Ware win the California Governor Election in 2026? BUY No 100¢ $30 2d
Will Matt Mahan win the California Governor Election in 2026? SELL No 100¢ $30 2d
Will Matt Mahan win the California Governor Election in 2026? BUY No 100¢ $30 2d
Will Rand Paul win the 2028 Republican presidential nomination? SELL No 99¢ $40 3d
Will Rand Paul win the 2028 Republican presidential nomination? BUY No 99¢ $40 8d
Will Eduardo Leite win the 2026 Brazilian presidential election? SELL No 100¢ $46 8d
Will Eduardo Leite win the 2026 Brazilian presidential election? BUY No 100¢ $46 19d
Will Hunter Biden win the 2028 Democratic presidential nomination? SELL No 99¢ $43 19d
Will Hunter Biden win the 2028 Democratic presidential nomination? BUY No 99¢ $43 20d
Will the Indianapolis Colts win the 2027 NFL league championship? SELL No 99¢ $41 20d
Will the Indianapolis Colts win the 2027 NFL league championship? BUY No 99¢ $41 21d
Will John Thune win the 2028 Republican presidential nomination? SELL No 99¢ $46 22d
Will John Thune win the 2028 Republican presidential nomination? BUY No 99¢ $46 23d
Will Elise Stefanik win the 2028 Republican presidential nomination? SELL No 99¢ $35 23d
Will Elise Stefanik win the 2028 Republican presidential nomination? BUY No 99¢ $35 24d
Will Aldo Rebelo win the 2026 Brazilian presidential election? SELL No 100¢ $275 25d
Will Aldo Rebelo win the 2026 Brazilian presidential election? BUY No 100¢ $275 25d
Will Antonio Villaraigosa win the California Governor Election in 2026 SELL No 100¢ $258 25d
Will Antonio Villaraigosa win the California Governor Election in 2026 BUY No 100¢ $258 27d
Will Nikki Haley win the 2028 Republican presidential nomination? SELL No 99¢ $264 27d
Will Nikki Haley win the 2028 Republican presidential nomination? BUY No 99¢ $264 28d
Will Ségolène Royal win the 2027 French presidential election? SELL No 99¢ $211 28d
Will Ségolène Royal win the 2027 French presidential election? BUY No 99¢ $211 29d
Will Hillary Clinton win the 2028 Democratic presidential nomination? SELL No 99¢ $231 29d
Will Hillary Clinton win the 2028 Democratic presidential nomination? BUY No 99¢ $231 29d
Will Paraguay win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? SELL No 100¢ $261 30d
Will Paraguay win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? BUY No 100¢ $261 30d
Will Robert F. Kennedy Jr. win the 2028 Republican presidential nomina SELL No 99¢ $220 31d
From the wallet’s activity history (Polymarket /activity), latest 30.
✓ Calibrated vs Polymarket: our portfolio calc $45.98 · official $45.98 (match) · 377 history records