Wallet analysis

2026-06-20T16:17:48+00:00

trader profile + honest PnL by actual resolution and NET edge after slippage — worth copying?

0.0
score
84 0x847e…3c43 sports 650 markets active 1h ago coverage 80d
TRAPdo not copy sports specialist⚠ High turnover
✗ negative after realistic slippage✗ 90-day edge negative — edge has died! high turnover
Total PnL −$4,872 (-4%) realized −$4,872 · open +$0
Copy trade Watchlist View on Polymarket ↗
Gross ROI / mkt -6% what the leader earns
→−copy tax
Net edge / mkt -22% what you keep after slip
Net edge-22%after slip
Net WR54%break-even
Win rate56%363W / 287L
Whale WR50%big bets
Drawdown100%max
Avg bet$169per market
Trades / day18.5pace
Fees−$1,309est.
Kalshi-fit99%portable
Net worth$0now

Equity curve

realized PnL
1W 1M 3M YTD 1Y All
2 days−$100
7 days−$690
14 days−$1,325
30 days−$2,658
Cards show realized PnL over calendar windows (by resolution date). The “Total PnL” chart appears for wallets we track daily.

Categories

share · PnL
sports 99% −$5,564
other 1% +$48
crypto 0% +$17
Share of volume and PnL by niche (realized + unrealized). Shows where the trader actually earns — and where they bleed.

The copy-tax — evidence

gross is the leader · net is you

Net edge · by timeframe

gross → net
negative after costs — do not copy
break-even: the trader needs > 10.5% gross ROI/market for the copier to break even
chance a trade nets +54%
net ROI/market (all)-15.3%
timeframemarkets gross ROINET ROI gross WRNET WR net PnL (wtd)
≤7d 9 -47.7% -52.7% 22% 22% -59.0%
≤30d 207 -6.6% -15.5% 56% 53% -15.7%
≤90d 650 -6.4% -15.3% 56% 54% -13.9%
all 650 -6.4% -15.3% 56% 54% -13.9%
<b>gross</b> = as the leader traded. <b>net</b> = what WE’d keep after slippage (we enter later, price moved). Net ROI ≤ 0 → copying loses even if the leader profits.

Slippage survival

net ROI/WR at slip
turnover18.5 tr/day
realistic slip~9%
edge survives to0%
copier slippageNET ROINET WRnet PnL (wtd)
5% ideal ← realistic here -15.3% 54% -13.9%
10% -23.4% 51% -22.1%
15% -30.8% 44% -29.7%
20% -37.6% 33% -36.6%
Realistic slippage grows with turnover and leader size. If net ROI turns negative before the realistic slip — it’s a <b>trap</b>: leader profits, you lose.

Edge quality

honest signals — luck vs skill
Profit concentration
top 1% · top 2 2% broad-based profit
Edge freshness (90d)
90d ROI -5% edge died — 90d negative
Fragile wins
3% wins margin < slip solid win margins
Flat-copyable
equal-wt -6% · $-wt -5% works when copied flat
Big bets
big-bet WR 50% (≥$500) neutral
Persistence
early -6% → late -6% mixed
Add-ons / DCA
1.6 add-ons/market adds to positions
Win / loss size
+$101 vs −$147 · ×0.69 wins small, loses big
Profit factor
×0.87 loses more than it wins
Copy size
≥ $50 mirror leader trades ≥ this size to copy only main ideas

Supporting detail

80d coverage
Net worth$0
Realized−$4,872
Unrealized+$0
Win rate (resolved)56%
Wins / losses363 / 287
Whale WR (big bets)50%
Est. fees paid−$1,309
Open positions0
Markets (closed)650 / 650
History coverage80d
Avg bet$169
Trades / day18.5
Drawdown100%
Kalshi-fit99%

Ledger

positions · history · trades
Positions 0 History 650 Trades
no open positions (220 resolved losses — in realized PnL)
Closed markets — PnL by actual resolution, newest first
MarketwheninvestedPnLROI
Map 3 Total Rounds: Over/Under 21.5 Jun 20 $186 −$13 -7%
Counter-Strike: Aurora Gaming vs FURIA - Map 2 Winner Jun 20 $10 −$1 -11%
Counter-Strike: Aurora Gaming vs FURIA - Map 1 Winner Jun 20 $94 −$86 -91%
Counter-Strike: Spirit vs 9z - Map 2 Winner Jun 13 $253 −$230 -91%
Map 2 Rounds Handicap: Spirit (-6.5) vs 9z (+6.5) Jun 13 $96 −$93 -97%
Counter-Strike: Spirit vs 9z - Map 1 Winner Jun 13 $183 −$182 -100%
Counter-Strike: BetBoom Team vs FURIA - Map 2 Winner Jun 13 $156 +$27 +17%
Counter-Strike: PARIVISION vs Legacy - Map 2 Winner Jun 13 $186 −$184 -99%
Counter-Strike: PARIVISION vs Legacy - Map 1 Winner Jun 13 $122 +$72 +59%
Counter-Strike: Team Falcons vs Monte (BO3) - IEM Cologne Major Stage Jun 13 $90 +$33 +36%
Counter-Strike: Vitality vs MOUZ - Map 1 Winner Jun 13 $85 −$83 -98%
Counter-Strike: Aurora Gaming vs G2 (BO3) - IEM Cologne Major Stage 3 Jun 13 $109 +$65 +59%
Counter-Strike: Team Falcons vs Monte - Map 1 Winner Jun 13 $81 −$77 -95%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 13, 8:00AM-8:05AM ET Jun 13 $56 +$17 +31%
Counter-Strike: Natus Vincere vs TheMongolz (BO3) - IEM Cologne Major Jun 13 $40 +$4 +11%
LoL: Team WE vs Bilibili Gaming - Game 4 Winner Jun 13 $92 −$90 -98%
Counter-Strike: Natus Vincere vs TheMongolz - Map 2 Winner Jun 13 $112 −$111 -99%
Counter-Strike: M80 vs Legacy - Map 2 Winner Jun 08 $65 −$64 -98%
Counter-Strike: M80 vs Legacy - Map 1 Winner Jun 08 $55 +$10 +18%
Counter-Strike: Monte vs BetBoom Team (BO3) - IEM Cologne Major Stage Jun 08 $49 +$5 +11%
Counter-Strike: TYLOO vs 9z - Map 2 Winner Jun 08 $289 −$286 -99%
Counter-Strike: Monte vs BetBoom Team - Map 2 Winner Jun 08 $195 +$134 +68%
Counter-Strike: Monte vs BetBoom Team - Map 1 Winner Jun 08 $123 −$119 -97%
Counter-Strike: MIBR vs B8 (BO3) - IEM Cologne Major Stage 2 Jun 08 $189 −$181 -95%
Counter-Strike: Astralis vs paiN - Map 2 Winner Jun 08 $370 −$134 -36%
Counter-Strike: Astralis vs paiN - Map 1 Winner Jun 08 $136 +$168 +123%
LoL: Anyone's Legend vs Bilibili Gaming - Game 3 Winner Jun 08 $104 +$70 +67%
LoL: Anyone's Legend vs Bilibili Gaming - Game 2 Winner Jun 08 $100 +$4 +4%
Counter-Strike: B8 vs THUNDER dOWNUNDER (BO1) - IEM Cologne Major Stag Jun 02 $100 −$98 -98%
Counter-Strike: Gentle Mates vs Team Nemesis - Map 2 Winner May 31 $207 −$205 -99%
Counter-Strike: Gentle Mates vs Team Nemesis - Map 1 Winner May 31 $196 +$10 +5%
LoL: Team Secret Whales vs Deep Cross Gaming (BO5) - LCP Playoffs May 31 $139 +$58 +42%
LoL: JD Gaming vs Top Esports - Game 4 Winner May 31 $363 −$361 -100%
LoL: JD Gaming vs Top Esports - Game 2 Winner May 31 $459 +$43 +9%
LoL: JD Gaming vs Top Esports - Game 1 Winner May 31 $300 +$79 +26%
LoL: HANJIN BRION vs Hanwha Life Esports - Game 2 Winner May 31 $193 +$88 +46%
LoL: HANJIN BRION vs Hanwha Life Esports - Game 1 Winner May 31 $244 +$47 +19%
Will Fagiano Okayama vs. Urawa Red Diamonds end in a draw? May 31 $92 +$33 +36%
Fagiano Okayama vs. Urawa Red Diamonds: O/U 1.5 May 31 $92 +$119 +129%
Spurs vs. Thunder May 31 $53 +$37 +70%
Spurs vs. Thunder: 1H Moneyline May 31 $69 −$60 -87%
Atlanta Braves vs. Cincinnati Reds: O/U 9.5 May 31 $87 −$39 -45%
Kansas City Royals vs. Texas Rangers May 30 $64 +$53 +82%
LoL: FlyQuest vs Sentinels - Game 3 Winner May 30 $217 −$214 -99%
San Diego Padres vs. Washington Nationals May 30 $215 −$170 -79%
Valorant: FUT Esports vs BBL Esports (BO3) - Esports World Cup EMEA Qu May 30 $198 +$47 +24%
LoL: FlyQuest vs Sentinels - Game 1 Winner May 30 $297 −$295 -99%
Counter-Strike: Team Nemesis vs 100 Thieves (BO3) - BC Game Masters Eu May 30 $388 +$206 +53%
LoL: Fluxo W7M vs LOS (BO5) - CBLOL Playoffs May 30 $350 +$86 +25%
Counter-Strike: magic vs NIP (BO3) - Stake Ranked Episode 2 Playoffs May 30 $714 −$705 -99%
Latest 50 closed markets. Resolution = Polymarket fact (redeemable/curPrice), not a timer.
Latest trades by this wallet
Marketsidepricesizewhen
Map 3 Total Rounds: Over/Under 21.5 SELL Over 49¢ $174 43m
Map 3 Total Rounds: Over/Under 21.5 BUY Over 51¢ $186 1h
Counter-Strike: Aurora Gaming vs FURIA - Map 2 Winner SELL Aurora Gaming 38¢ $9 1h
Counter-Strike: Aurora Gaming vs FURIA - Map 1 Winner SELL Aurora Gaming 5¢ $8 1h
Counter-Strike: Aurora Gaming vs FURIA - Map 2 Winner BUY Aurora Gaming 41¢ $10 2h
Counter-Strike: Aurora Gaming vs FURIA - Map 1 Winner BUY Aurora Gaming 56¢ $94 2h
Counter-Strike: Spirit vs 9z - Map 2 Winner BUY 9z 64¢ $10 6d
Counter-Strike: Spirit vs 9z - Map 2 Winner SELL Spirit 36¢ $10 6d
Counter-Strike: Spirit vs 9z - Map 2 Winner BUY 9z 61¢ $223 6d
Map 2 Rounds Handicap: Spirit (-6.5) vs 9z (+6.5) SELL Spirit 1¢ $3 6d
Counter-Strike: Spirit vs 9z - Map 2 Winner BUY Spirit 70¢ $20 6d
Map 2 Rounds Handicap: Spirit (-6.5) vs 9z (+6.5) BUY Spirit 40¢ $59 6d
Map 2 Rounds Handicap: Spirit (-6.5) vs 9z (+6.5) BUY Spirit 40¢ $15 6d
Map 2 Rounds Handicap: Spirit (-6.5) vs 9z (+6.5) BUY Spirit 40¢ $3 6d
Map 2 Rounds Handicap: Spirit (-6.5) vs 9z (+6.5) BUY Spirit 40¢ $19 6d
Counter-Strike: Spirit vs 9z - Map 1 Winner BUY Spirit 84¢ $183 6d
Counter-Strike: BetBoom Team vs FURIA - Map 2 Winner SELL FURIA 99¢ $183 6d
Counter-Strike: BetBoom Team vs FURIA - Map 2 Winner BUY FURIA 84¢ $156 6d
Counter-Strike: PARIVISION vs Legacy - Map 2 Winner BUY PARIVISION 69¢ $186 6d
Counter-Strike: PARIVISION vs Legacy - Map 1 Winner SELL Legacy 100¢ $194 6d
Counter-Strike: PARIVISION vs Legacy - Map 1 Winner BUY Legacy 62¢ $122 7d
Counter-Strike: Team Falcons vs Monte (BO3) - IEM Cologne Major Stage SELL Team Falcons 99¢ $122 7d
Counter-Strike: Team Falcons vs Monte (BO3) - IEM Cologne Major Stage BUY Team Falcons 72¢ $90 7d
Counter-Strike: Vitality vs MOUZ - Map 1 Winner BUY MOUZ 19¢ $50 7d
Counter-Strike: Vitality vs MOUZ - Map 1 Winner BUY MOUZ 21¢ $34 7d
Counter-Strike: Aurora Gaming vs G2 (BO3) - IEM Cologne Major Stage 3 SELL Aurora Gaming 100¢ $174 7d
Counter-Strike: Aurora Gaming vs G2 (BO3) - IEM Cologne Major Stage 3 BUY Aurora Gaming 62¢ $109 7d
Counter-Strike: Team Falcons vs Monte - Map 1 Winner SELL Monte 2¢ $4 7d
Counter-Strike: Team Falcons vs Monte - Map 1 Winner BUY Monte 42¢ $81 7d
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 13, 8:00AM-8:05AM ET BUY Down 78¢ $5 7d
From the wallet’s activity history (Polymarket /activity), latest 30.
✓ Calibrated vs Polymarket: our portfolio calc $0.00 · official $0.00 (match) · 1506 history records