Wallet analysis

2026-06-27T19:43:06+00:00

trader profile + honest PnL by actual resolution and NET edge after slippage — worth copying?

0.5
score
84 0x847e…cc57 crypto 47 markets active 0h ago coverage 6d
TRAPdo not copy crypto specialistFading edge⚠ High turnover
✗ negative after realistic slippage! high turnover! concentrated profit (few bets)
Total PnL +$434 (+12%) realized +$434 · open +$0
Copy trade Watchlist View on Polymarket ↗
Gross ROI / mkt +2% what the leader earns
→−copy tax
Net edge / mkt -15% what you keep after slip
Net edge-15%after slip
Net WR38%break-even
Win rate45%21W / 26L
Drawdown64%max
Avg bet$76per market
Trades / day16.5pace
Kalshi-fit87%portable
Net worth$0now

Equity curve

realized PnL
Not enough resolved history to chart — analysis covers only 6d (hyperactive wallet — we see only the tail of its trades). A “Total PnL” curve will appear once daily tracking accumulates.

Categories

share · PnL
crypto 96% +$282
other 3% −$76
world 0% $0
Share of volume and PnL by niche (realized + unrealized). Shows where the trader actually earns — and where they bleed.

The copy-tax — evidence

gross is the leader · net is you

Net edge · by timeframe

gross → net
negative after costs — do not copy
break-even: the trader needs > 10.5% gross ROI/market for the copier to break even
chance a trade nets +38%
net ROI/market (all)-8.0%
timeframemarkets gross ROINET ROI gross WRNET WR net PnL (wtd)
≤7d 47 +1.7% -8.0% 45% 38% -4.3%
≤30d 47 +1.7% -8.0% 45% 38% -4.3%
≤90d 47 +1.7% -8.0% 45% 38% -4.3%
all 47 +1.7% -8.0% 45% 38% -4.3%
<b>gross</b> = as the leader traded. <b>net</b> = what WE’d keep after slippage (we enter later, price moved). Net ROI ≤ 0 → copying loses even if the leader profits.

Slippage survival

net ROI/WR at slip
turnover16.5 tr/day
realistic slip~9%
edge survives to0%
copier slippageNET ROINET WRnet PnL (wtd)
5% ideal ← realistic here -8.0% 38% -4.3%
10% -16.8% 34% -13.4%
15% -24.8% 23% -21.8%
20% -32.2% 17% -29.5%
Realistic slippage grows with turnover and leader size. If net ROI turns negative before the realistic slip — it’s a <b>trap</b>: leader profits, you lose.

Edge quality

honest signals — luck vs skill
Profit concentration
top 33% · top 2 60% concentrated in a few bets
Edge freshness (90d)
90d ROI +6% 90d near zero / fading
Fragile wins
14% wins margin < slip solid win margins
Flat-copyable
equal-wt +2% · $-wt +6% works when copied flat
Big bets
big-bet WR —% no data
Persistence
early +7% → late -3% edge faded
Add-ons / DCA
1.3 add-ons/market flat bettor — clean entries
Win / loss size
+$30 vs −$17 · ×1.83 wins bigger than losses
Profit factor
×1.48 profit barely above losses
Copy size
≥ $50 mirror leader trades ≥ this size to copy only main ideas

Supporting detail

6d coverage
Net worth$0
Realized+$434
Unrealized+$0
Win rate (resolved)45%
Wins / losses21 / 26
Open positions0
Markets (closed)47 / 47
History coverage6d
Avg bet$76
Trades / day16.5
Drawdown64%
Kalshi-fit87%

Ledger

positions · history · trades
Positions 0 History 47 Trades
no open positions (6 resolved losses — in realized PnL)
Closed markets — PnL by actual resolution, newest first
MarketwheninvestedPnLROI
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 27, 3:00PM-3:15PM ET Jun 27 $33 +$47 +140%
Ethereum Up or Down - June 27, 3:00PM-3:15PM ET Jun 27 $57 +$23 +40%
Solana Up or Down - June 27, 3:00PM-3:15PM ET Jun 27 $46 +$5 +11%
Dogecoin Up or Down - June 27, 3:00PM-3:15PM ET Jun 27 $50 −$23 -45%
XRP Up or Down - June 27, 2:45PM-3:00PM ET Jun 27 $66 −$6 -9%
Ethereum Up or Down - June 27, 2:45PM-3:00PM ET Jun 27 $52 −$17 -31%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 27, 2:45PM-3:00PM ET Jun 27 $79 −$26 -33%
Solana Up or Down - June 27, 2:45PM-3:00PM ET Jun 27 $39 −$37 -96%
Dogecoin Up or Down - June 27, 2:45PM-3:00PM ET Jun 27 $46 −$44 -97%
Solana Up or Down - June 27, 2:30PM-2:45PM ET Jun 27 $62 +$18 +29%
BNB Up or Down - June 27, 2:30PM-2:45PM ET Jun 27 $37 −$36 -96%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 27, 2:15PM-2:30PM ET Jun 27 $65 +$15 +23%
XRP Up or Down - June 27, 2:00PM-2:15PM ET Jun 27 $63 +$17 +28%
Solana Up or Down - June 27, 2:00PM-2:15PM ET Jun 27 $58 −$48 -82%
Ethereum Up or Down - June 27, 2:00PM-2:15PM ET Jun 27 $37 −$30 -81%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 27, 2:00PM-2:15PM ET Jun 27 $40 −$13 -33%
BNB Up or Down - June 27, 2:00PM-2:15PM ET Jun 27 $49 −$7 -15%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 27, 1:45PM-2:00PM ET Jun 27 $73 +$7 +9%
Ethereum Up or Down - June 27, 1:45PM-2:00PM ET Jun 27 $62 +$18 +30%
Dogecoin Up or Down - June 27, 1:30PM-1:45PM ET Jun 27 $57 −$18 -31%
Bitcoin Up or Down on June 27? Jun 27 $22 +$54 +240%
Ethereum Up or Down on June 27? Jun 26 $11 −$1 -12%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 26, 3:00PM-3:15PM ET Jun 26 $433 +$209 +48%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 26, 1:45PM-2:00PM ET Jun 26 $613 −$38 -6%
Hyperliquid Up or Down - June 26, 1:45PM-2:00PM ET Jun 26 $32 −$29 -93%
Ethereum Up or Down - June 26, 12:00PM-12:15PM ET Jun 26 $4 +$3 +65%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 26, 12:00PM-12:15PM ET Jun 26 $639 +$4 +1%
Will Spain win on 2026-06-26? Jun 26 $3 $0 -4%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 26, 11:45AM-12:00PM ET Jun 26 $11 −$1 -12%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 26, 10:15AM-10:30AM ET Jun 26 $10 +$4 +35%
Strait of Hormuz traffic returns to normal by July 31? Jun 26 $3 $0 -2%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 25, 4:15PM-4:30PM ET Jun 25 $481 +$173 +36%
Dogecoin Up or Down - June 25, 7:45AM-8:00AM ET Jun 25 $25 −$24 -97%
Ethereum Up or Down - June 25, 6:45AM-7:00AM ET Jun 25 $22 +$18 +82%
BNB Up or Down - June 24, 1:15PM-1:30PM ET Jun 24 $3 −$3 -94%
Bitcoin Up or Down on June 24? Jun 24 $6 $0 -9%
China x Philippines military clash before 2027? Jun 23 $1 $0 -13%
XRP Up or Down - June 23, 9:30AM-9:45AM ET Jun 23 $1 $0 -6%
Solana Up or Down - June 23, 9AM ET Jun 23 $2 +$2 +91%
Ethereum Up or Down - June 23, 7:30AM-7:45AM ET Jun 23 $3 +$2 +65%
Bitcoin Up or Down on June 23? Jun 22 $6 $0 -8%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 22, 7:05AM-7:10AM ET Jun 22 $5 $0 +9%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 21, 12:30PM-12:35PM ET Jun 21 $5 +$1 +19%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 21, 8:40AM-8:45AM ET Jun 21 $52 −$24 -47%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 21, 8:35AM-8:40AM ET Jun 21 $79 −$4 -5%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 21, 8:15AM-8:20AM ET Jun 21 $5 +$3 +68%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 21, 8:05AM-8:10AM ET Jun 21 $16 +$15 +97%
Latest 50 closed markets. Resolution = Polymarket fact (redeemable/curPrice), not a timer.
Latest trades by this wallet
Marketsidepricesizewhen
Solana Up or Down - June 27, 3:00PM-3:15PM ET SELL Up 66¢ $51 29m
Dogecoin Up or Down - June 27, 3:00PM-3:15PM ET SELL Up 36¢ $28 29m
Solana Up or Down - June 27, 3:00PM-3:15PM ET BUY Up 56¢ $46 29m
Dogecoin Up or Down - June 27, 3:00PM-3:15PM ET BUY Up 61¢ $50 30m
Ethereum Up or Down - June 27, 3:00PM-3:15PM ET BUY Up 70¢ $57 32m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 27, 3:00PM-3:15PM ET BUY Up 40¢ $33 42m
XRP Up or Down - June 27, 2:45PM-3:00PM ET SELL Up 76¢ $60 44m
Ethereum Up or Down - June 27, 2:45PM-3:00PM ET SELL Up 47¢ $36 44m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 27, 2:45PM-3:00PM ET SELL Up 14¢ $10 44m
XRP Up or Down - June 27, 2:45PM-3:00PM ET BUY Up 81¢ $66 44m
Solana Up or Down - June 27, 2:45PM-3:00PM ET BUY Up 47¢ $39 45m
Dogecoin Up or Down - June 27, 2:45PM-3:00PM ET BUY Up 57¢ $6 45m
Dogecoin Up or Down - June 27, 2:45PM-3:00PM ET BUY Up 55¢ $40 45m
Ethereum Up or Down - June 27, 2:45PM-3:00PM ET BUY Up 64¢ $52 47m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 27, 2:45PM-3:00PM ET SELL Up 51¢ $0 47m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 27, 2:45PM-3:00PM ET BUY Up 46¢ $39 48m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 27, 2:45PM-3:00PM ET SELL Up 56¢ $43 53m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 27, 2:45PM-3:00PM ET BUY Up 49¢ $41 57m
Solana Up or Down - June 27, 2:30PM-2:45PM ET BUY Up 76¢ $62 1h
BNB Up or Down - June 27, 2:30PM-2:45PM ET BUY Up 45¢ $37 1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 27, 2:15PM-2:30PM ET BUY Down 80¢ $65 1h
Solana Up or Down - June 27, 2:00PM-2:15PM ET SELL Down 14¢ $10 1h
Ethereum Up or Down - June 27, 2:00PM-2:15PM ET SELL Down 9¢ $7 1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 27, 2:00PM-2:15PM ET SELL Down 35¢ $27 1h
BNB Up or Down - June 27, 2:00PM-2:15PM ET SELL Down 52¢ $41 1h
XRP Up or Down - June 27, 2:00PM-2:15PM ET BUY Down 77¢ $63 1h
BNB Up or Down - June 27, 2:00PM-2:15PM ET SELL Down 47¢ $1 1h
BNB Up or Down - June 27, 2:00PM-2:15PM ET BUY Down 58¢ $49 1h
Solana Up or Down - June 27, 2:00PM-2:15PM ET BUY Down 72¢ $58 1h
Ethereum Up or Down - June 27, 2:00PM-2:15PM ET BUY Down 44¢ $37 1h
From the wallet’s activity history (Polymarket /activity), latest 30.
✓ Calibrated vs Polymarket: our portfolio calc $0.00 · official $0.00 (match) · 119 history records